College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 11/20/2012
The Ferringo 15 strikes again!
Our teams went 8-4 against the spread last week, with three clubs either on a bye week or having played a mid-week game. That 8-4 ATS mark was good enough to turn a profit, and that is now seven of eight winning weeks for the teams listed in the Ferringo 15.
Our top six teams went 3-1 ATS last week, and overall the teams ranked No. 1 thru No. 6 have gone 31-10-1 ATS over the last two months. Those are obscene numbers and the top-tier of college football betting has been making money hand over fist.
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But, then again, so has the Ferringo 15. The teams listed in this space have gone an astounding 67-35-1 ATS over the last two months while posting a profit in seven of the last eight weeks. That is a 65 percent rate, and there is not a bettor in the world that wouldn’t love those numbers.
Here are this week’s Ferringo 15 college football power rankings (all records are ATS against the closing line) for what have been the most valuable teams in college football betting so far this year:
1. Utah State (10-0-1) –Win 10 straight against the spread and take the WAC title and you deserve a week off. The Aggies have to suit up, though, and they are dressed up as 38-point favorites this weekend against Idaho. It is impossible to gauge what the Aggies have left in the tank after their overtime win at Louisiana Tech last week.
2. Fresno State (9-1) –It is hard to argue that some of the value from the Bulldogs isn’t gone, as they are a healthy 16-point favorite this week against Air Force. But the question is: does it even matter? Fresno State has earned its last five wins by an average of 23.4 points per game. The Bulldogs also faced Nevada’s Pistol offense last week, which should make preparing for Air Force’s option attack a bit easier.
3. Northwestern (10-1) – The Wildcats are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against Illinois, and this is an important game for Northwestern in terms of recruiting. I don’t expect them to hold back this week against an Illini team that has been pathetic all season long. Northwestern has covered five straight, and I would think they are riding pretty high after a nice upset at Michigan State last week.
4. Northern Illinois (8-2-1) –This week’s game is all about how much Northern Illinois cares about this game. Two years ago they beat Eastern Michigan, 71-3, three years ago they won 50-6 and four years ago they won 37-0. But the Huskies have a trip to the MAC Championship up next, and they will have to balance staying healthy with finishing strong on the road.
5. San Jose State (9-2) –The Spartans are catching La. Tech after a deflating home loss in overtime against Utah State. That sets up very well for the Spartans, who handled BYU last Saturday as a home underdog. But Louisiana Tech has won four straight in this series and is 3-1 ATS, so we’ll see if the Spartans can muster some revenge.
6. Kansas State (8-2-1) – The Wildcats have two weeks to reflect on that brutal loss at Baylor last Saturday. They still have a chance to make a statement against Texas to close their season, and if they get some help they actually could still work their way into the BCS Championship. But it is going to be a long couple weeks in Manhattan.
7. Penn State (8-3) –This is it for Penn State. They can’t play in the postseason so this will be the final game of their season. I expect another max effort for a team that has performed admirably all season long. The Nittany Lions are facing a Wisconsin team that is behind them in the standings but will advance to the Big Ten title game. Wisky will probably be looking ahead to that game anyway, and I would have to give huge motivational and situational edges to Penn State.
8. Mississippi (8-3) – This is a difficult spot for Ole Miss. The Rebels let one get away last week in Baton Rouge in their loss to LSU. That made it three straight Ls, and now the Rebels have to beat rival Mississippi State to gain bowl eligibility. But how much does Ole Miss have left in the tank after that heartbreaking loss last week in the Bayou? They have lost three straight to Miss State, but the home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
9. Oregon State (8-2) – Oregon losing really works to Oregon State’s advantage this week heading into the Civil War. The Ducks have to be dragging after falling, at home in overtime, to Stanford and costing themselves a shot at a National Championship. Mike Riley’s group has been waiting for this game for a month, and they were razor sharp last week in their 62-14 demolition of Cal. The Beavers have been blown out in the last two meetings. But the underdog had covered four straight prior to the 2010 and 2011 routs. I’m not in a rush to bet against the Ducks, but Oregon State is 5-1 ATS in its last six at home.
10. Clemson (8-3) – The Tigers have accepted the fact that they won’t be going to the ACC Championship. They are a strong contender for a BCS bowl bid, and right now the success of their season might be determined by how they fare against hated rival South Carolina. The Tigers have lost three straight in this series, both straight up and against the spread. They are actually just 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings, but the home team has covered in four of five. One thing is for sure: this ain’t an ACC team that Clemson is facing this week. How will they respond to the step up in talent?
11. Ball State (9-2) – This team is as hot as any in the MAC right now. The Cardinals and their No. 18 offense laid into Toledo on the road two weeks ago and then hung 52 on Ohio in BSU’s final home game last week. Keith Wenning has been ruled out this week for the game at Miami, OH, but backup Kelly Page has experience and will be fine in relief. This number is off the board at most books. But my sources tell me that the spread will be around Ball State -9.0 or -10.0 when it is released.
12. Kent State (9-2) –The Golden Flashes locked up the MAC East title last week with their upset win at Bowling Green. Now they are double-digit favorites against a talented, but mentally drained, Ohio team. Kent will be amped up for its final home game. But you have to wonder where their focus is with the MAC Championship Game waiting in the wings. The Golden Flashes are 7-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with Ohio, but the underdog has covered six of eight.
13. Florida Atlantic (8-3) –The Owls are off this week as they prepare for their final home game against Lafayette. They will probably need the full two weeks to get over that tough, nationally televised loss to rival Florida International last Friday.
14. Miami (8-3) – It is very rare for Miami to be underrated in college football. But perhaps the public is finally hip to the fact that this is a third-tier program and hasn’t been a factor, nationally, in over a decade. The Canes have produced against lowered expectations and laid a 31-point beating on fellow underachiever South Florida last week. Miami will have to get back up after that blowout and go on the road to mug Duke, which they’ve done in all seven meetings (7-0 SU, 3-4 ATS). Miami won by 35 last year and won by 18 as just a three-point favorite at Duke in 2009.
15. Western Kentucky (8-3) –The Hilltoppers are holding on to this final spot in the F-15 by their fingertips. Western Kentucky covered in a loss to Lafayette by just a half-point last week. That was WKU’s third straight SU loss, and they have dumped four of five. That has resulted in nearly balanced action in their home finale against North Texas this week. The Mean Green have been routed by 26, 17 and 23 in their last three road games, so if there is an opponent that WKU could blow out at home this would be it.
The Ferringo 15 college football power rankings are my profit/power rankings. They are a ranking of the 15 teams I feel currently have the most value in college football betting. It is a not merely a reward for past achievement at the window, but more a total overview of past, present, and future projected achievement against the spread.
Robert Ferringo is a professional handicapper and has posted 23 of 36 profitable months with his combined college and NFL football selections. He is looking forward to building on his stellar football handicapping resume again this week and following up last week’s profit with another winner.You can check him out here.