The Ferringo 15 college football power rankings aremy profit/power rankings. They are a ranking of the 15 teams I feel currently have the most value in college football betting. It is a not merely a reward for past achievement at the window, but more a total overview of past, present, and future projectedachievement against the spread.
Value changes based on the consensus of the betting public. So the key is to find teams that are underrated and under-the-radar. But when a team has too much success then gamblers, handicappers and the general public start to pound their lines, the oddsmakers start to adjust and the value is gone.
It’s a fine line to walk. But every year there are several teams that manage exceptional ATS success. Being able to identify those clubs is a key to turning a long-term college football profit.
Here are this week’s Ferringo 15 college football power rankings (all records are ATS against the closing line):
1. Kansas State (2-0) –OK, I guess maybe this is more of a reward for K-State being one of the best bets in the country over the last two years. But at some point we have to recognize Bill Snyder is an against the spread machine in Manhattan! The Wildcats are No. 14 in the nation and they are four-touchdown favorites this weekend. They are hardly “under the radar”. But they are still 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games. And while they won’t be cashing those outright underdog moneyline tickets for us this year I still think that this team has a lot of earning potential as – perhaps – the favorite in the Big 12.
2. Utah State (2-0) –The Aggies relish going up against other top-tier teams. This is a physical group and they earned that outright win over Utah last week. This same squad lost by only seven at Oklahoma back in 2010 and they lost by only four at Auburn and by three at BYU last year. These guys aren’t going to be scared to head to Madison this week as two-touchdown underdogs against a Badgers team that is having a crisis of confidence.
3. Georgia Tech (2-0) –There should be songs about Paul Johnson. The guys is just a solid wager year-in and year-out. I do think that their spread against rival Virginia is a little high (it is currently around 10.0 or 10.5). But I also know I’m not betting against the Jackets. They have revenge for a tough loss last season up in Charlottesville, and this Tech team can’t afford to fall to 0-2 in the ACC to start the season.
4. BYU (1-1) – Revenge. That is the only thing on the mind of this team this week. BYU was humiliated, 54-10, at home last year in The Holy War. But now they are catching Utah off an embarrassing loss to Utah State, and the Utes are trying to adjust to the season-ending injury of quarterback Jordan Wynn. BYU is still only a four-point favorite, though, and it is always dangerous to ignore a home underdog in a rivalry game. Especially a rivalry with as much history and vitriol as this one. The underdog is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings and BYU is just 2-6 ATS in the last eight. But the road team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings and BYU is currently on a run of 8-1 ATS.
5. Purdue (2-0) –I am still kicking myself for not going bigger on the Boilermakers last week at Notre Dame. I KNEW that they were going to make that a game but chickened out and didn’t bet it nearly as hard as I should have. Purdue is in a wicked letdown spot this week, coming from South Bend and being installed as a 24-point favorite against reeling Eastern Michigan. Purdue is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games against the MAC and they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 11 points or more.
6. Texas Tech (2-0) –The Red Raiders are playing one of the softest opening schedules in all of college football. They beat Northwestern State and Texas State, and now they are “taking on” New Mexico this week. While this lineup of cupcakes should get them lampooned by local and national press, I think that behind these blowout victories against overmatched teams could still be a veteran club building momentum. Tech is just a 33-point favorite this week after wins of 38 and 48 points. I don’t think their value is maxed out yet and they are 6-2-1 ATS against the Lobos.
7. Western Michigan (1-1) –The Broncos are playing a very interesting game this Saturday at Minnesota. And the fact that this game opened as a “pick’em” and that all of the money shifted to the Gophers tells me that people are still sleeping on WMU and Alex Carder. (Although, Minnesota has graced the Ferringo 15 as recently as last week!) The Broncos are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against the Big Ten. But I definitely think they will come to play this weekend.
8. Connecticut (1-0-1) –The Huskies defense is still one of the more underrated groups in the country. But Connecticut couldn’t get past its glaring weakness – quarterback play – again last week. They have a very emotional game this week against an up-and-down Maryland team. Former coach Randy Edsall bolted Storrs two years ago and left a lot of anger in his wake. But if UConn’s pathetic offense couldn’t produce at home I’m not sure what it will muster this weekend.
9. Illinois (1-1) –I am not giving up on the Illini and I absolutely think it was the right decision to sit Nathan Scheelhaase last week and take a beating in Tempe. Given the state of Wisconsin right now the Illini could still fulfill my bold prediction of representing the Leaders Division in the Big Ten title game. They have a get-well game against Charleston Southern this week and their value may be watered down heading into league play.
10. Mississippi State (2-0) –I was very, very high on the Bulldogs last season. Maybe I was a year too early. This is a common phenomenon in football betting: a team gets a lot of buzz and some hype one year, underachieves, and then is forgotten about the following season. That is Mississippi State this year and their value is back.
11. Iowa State (2-0) –I guess it doesn’t matter who the quarterback is for this underrated team! The Cyclones sprung the road upset over Iowa last week and now get to dial it down against Western Illinois this week. They should win to move to 3-0 at the doorstep of Big 12 play. And this week will probably be the last time that the Cyclones are favored for the rest of the season. But, honestly, that makes them even more valuable. Paul Rhoads is proving that he is a very good coach and he has a good thing going in Ames right now.
12. Central Florida (2-0) –I am still really surprised that Central Florida is a 17-point favorite this week against in-state rival Florida International. But UCF played hard at Ohio State last week and clearly impressed some people. But the Knights are in a tricky spot this week. They could have a letdown from their game at Columbus and could be looking ahead to a big home date with Missouri next week. They better come to play this week because these Florida rivalry games are never civil.
13. West Virginia (1-0) –Their schedule makes it tough, but don’t forget about the Mountaineers. West Virginia had a bye week and now they get to tool on lowly James Madison this Saturday. But their next three games are against Maryland, Baylor in WVU’s Big 12 debut, and then a trip to Austin to tangle with Texas. Buckle up.
14. Fresno State (2-0) –The Bulldogs waltzed through the back door last week against Oregon. And I thought that their slow first half would help keep them off the radar despite a 2-0 ATS start. Obviously, now Fresno is a 15-point favorite against reeling Colorado. While that says more about the state of the Buffs than it does about Fresno, it still is not a good omen. Fresno’s schedule doesn’t let up though. They play at Tulsa and then host resurgent San Diego State (2-0 ATS start), so we could get some favorable lines with this group the next two weeks.
15. Arizona State (2-0) – I don’t know that too many people knew what to make of Todd Graham’s squad out in the desert. Yes, they feasted on Northern Arizona and they caught a break with Scheelhaase’s injury last Saturday. But they are still healthy underdogs against a Missouri team in a letdown spot. And with Utah and Cal on deck the Sun Devils really could be primed for a 4-1 or 5-0 start heading into their bye week.
Honorable Mention: North Carolina State, Boston College, Ohio, Oregon State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Mississippi, Florida Atlantic, Navy, UCLA
Robert Ferringo is a professional handicapper and has posted back-to-back profitable seasons (college and pro). Robert has turned a profit in three of four football seasons and over the last nine months his clients have earned nearly $10,000 in profit with his football selections. He is looking forward to building on his stellar football handicapping resume again this fall and you can check him out here. Also, you can also get $60 worth of free Robert Ferringo member picks (no salesman, no credit card, no obligation!) by clicking here for more info.