Last Saturday capped a Salvation Army weekend for the Ferringo 15 – it was nonprofit.
Our teams went 7-7 against the spread, with several of them winning games but losing at the window to the inflated spreads that they are now shackled with. (Perhaps the oddsmakers are reading the Ferringo 15 and adjusting accordingly! Ha!)
However, our top six teams were a very solid 4-2 ATS, with several easy cashes by the likes of Utah State, Georgia Tech, Purdue and Texas Tech never leaving any doubt. Needless to say, those teams are going to stay at the top of my profit/power rankings. But even I am nervous – the books won’t let these teams maintain their values for much longer.
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Here are this week’s Ferringo 15 college football rankings (all records are ATS against the closing line):
1. Utah State (3-0) –Tough and physical, I think that this is the best team in the WAC. The only question about this team, which is now a 13-point road favorite at Colorado State, is whether or not they suffer a letdown after back-to-back emotional games (vs. Utah, at Wisconsin). However, the Aggies have revenge for an overtime loss at home to the Rams last year, so they should be plenty motivated to lay into CSU club.
2. Georgia Tech (3-0) –Another week, another Paul Johnson cover. I love this man. Some day there will be songs written about him. We will see if he can continue his magic this week against an undisciplined, inexperienced Miami team. The Hurricanes have beaten Johnson’s Jackets three straight seasons and their athleticism has had little trouble with the triple-option. But this Miami team also gave up 32 points at Boston College and 52 points at Kansas State. Tech should be able to take advantage.
3. Purdue (3-0) –You have to be impressed at how this team bounced back after a heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame. But that is because, as I have been saying since the preseason, this is a very good, very experienced Boilermaker team that is going to surprise at least one or two teams in the Big Ten this year. They are off this week before welcoming Marshall next week.
4. Texas Tech (3-0) –We are still a couple weeks away from finding out what this team is made of. They have a bye this week and then a tricky road trip to Ames to face Iowa State.
5. UCLA (3-0) –The Bruins have had talented, experienced teams in each of the last three seasons. But it is just amazing what happens when you add in a competent coach. They are playing into a heavy reverse line movement this week against Oregon State. But we’ll see if their momentum keeps them cashing at the window.
6. Connecticut (2-0-1) –That Huskies defense is no joke. They can’t move the ball in the air – which constitutes a problem – but they can get stops against just about anyone. They face off against a Western Michigan team that just dropped out of the F-15 and this is a bad spot for the Huskies. Western Michigan is much better than their record suggests right now. I said that I really liked the Huskies this year because they do everything that the top Big East teams do well. We will see if they can keep it going after last week’s emotional “revenge” win over their former coach.
7. Kansas State (2-1) – The Wildcats won but didn’t cover their bloated spread last week against North Texas. They started slow and were losing that game early, but then they rebounded and were actually ahead, 35-13, late in the contest before allowing a garbage score. How much of that result was a red flag and how much was it K-State looking ahead to this week’s game against Oklahoma? Oklahoma is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings and won by 41 last year – in Manhattan. I don’t know that the Wildcats have closed the gap. But I also don’t know that a blowout loss this week would be the worst thing in the world for the long-term betting value for Kansas State.
8. Illinois (2-1) –Will he or won’t he? Nathan Scheelhaase’s injury is clouding the value on this team. But reports are coming out that the Illini quarterback is “near 100 percent” even though he has not been announced as the starter this week. Illinois is facing a hurry-up offense for the second time in three weeks when Louisiana Tech comes to town. We’ll see if they handle it better than they did when they faced Arizona State two weeks ago. (Again, the asterisk should denote that they played that game without Scheelhaase, so it is all relative.)
9. Fresno State (3-0) –There is no rest for the Bulldogs. Their brutal schedule takes them to Tulsa this week to face another very talented mid-major team. But the Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games and 7-0 ATS on turf. Also, Tulsa’s stats are inflated by the fact that they have played Nicholls State and Tulane in their last two outings. If Fresno can keep its head after last week’s emotional win the Bulldogs could steal the outright upset in this one.
10. Mississippi State (2-1) –Mississippi State took its foot off the gas against Troy last week and almost lost outright as two-touchdown favorites. The question I have about this team is as to whether or not they have an extra gear or if we’ve already seen their best. They get another cupcake this week, facing South Alabama, before winnable games at Kentucky, hosting Tennessee and hosting Middle Tennessee. A 6-0 start heading into a game at Alabama isn’t out of the question.
11. Iowa State (2-1) –Iowa State avoided the letdown after upsetting Iowa. But they did so against a pathetic Western Illinois squad. The Cyclones have a bye this week before welcoming Texas Tech next week in what will be an under-the-radar Big 12 opener for both teams.
12. Central Florida (2-1) –The Knights are another team that might actually be losing value. They are on a bye after throttling in-state foe Florida International last week but failing to cover a bloated 17-point spread. This Central Florida team is very good. And a lot of people know it. But we’ll see if they can be better than expected when they get into conference play.
13. West Virginia (1-0) –I’m taking the long view with West Virginia. They are mammoth favorites this week against a bad Maryland team, so, obviously, the Mountaineers aren’t sneaking up on anyone. But I still think that WVU is going to be a strong play in conference this season so I’ll let them hang out in the lower rungs of the F-15 until I am proven wrong.
14. Vanderbilt (2-1) –I’m still a little torn on this team. I really liked what I saw from them against South Carolina. They were tough and physical and their experience is something to lean on. But then they laid an egg against a pathetic Northwestern team. So who is Vandy, really? Quarterback issues are dominating the headlines for this club, but at this point I think it is six of one, half-dozen of the other. This team will stay in games with its running game and defense.
15. BYU (1-2) – I am still stunned about the finish to the BYU-Utah game last week. I took a bath on that one and I still really can’t believe how this team could lose to Utah after the Utes lost their starting quarterback and starting running back. Ridiculous. Now they have to go on the road to face a rabid Boise State team on the Smurf Turf in a nationally televised game. BYU is the better team. But how do they rebound emotionally after that Holy War debacle?
Honorable Mention: Ohio, Oregon State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Mississippi, Florida Atlantic, Navy, UCLA, Ball State, Toledo
The Ferringo 15 college football power rankings are my profit/power rankings. They are a ranking of the 15 teams I feel currently have the most value in college football betting. It is a not merely a reward for past achievement at the window, but more a total overview of past, present, and future projected achievement against the spread.
Robert Ferringo is a professional NFL handicapper and has posted two of three profitable winning weeks to start the year. Robert nailed his 7-Unit NFL Game of the Year last week and picked up $2,000 in profit with his college and pro selections in NFL Week 1. Robert has banked $9,400 in football profit over the last 10 months he has had football picks and will keep it going this week. He is looking forward to building on his stellar football handicapping resume again this fall and you can check him out here.