It was the best week yet for the Ferringo 15 this season, with our top 11 teams combining to go 9-1 against the total (Kansas State was on a bye week) and the F-15 earning a 10-4 mark overall on the weekend.
Here are this week’s Ferringo 15 college football power rankings (all records are ATS against the closing line) for what have been the most valuable teams in college football betting so far this year:
1. Utah State (4-0-1) –The Aggies are ready to take on BYU Friday night in a vicious Mormon-on-Mormon battle. Utah State has covered four straight against their more highly-regarded rivals and they pushed the Cougars to the limit last year in a 27-24 loss. Utah State has already won over Utah, and their only loss was a two-point defeat in Madison against Wisconsin. We’ll see if the Aggies can keep their hot start going.
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2. Kansas State (3-1) – The Wildcats have had two weeks off, and now they get shot to bury their in-state rivals. I was expecting K-State to be favored by around 30 points this week so I was a little surprised that the line was at 24.0. Either Kansas is ready to play a bit better than I expected or the Wildcats are still undervalued. Kansas State has beaten their rivals by 38 and 52 points the last two seasons, and they are 30-14 ATS against a team with a losing record.
3. Texas Tech (4-0) –The Red Raiders gutted out a win and cover in Ames last week. Now they return home to try to fend off the revenge-minded Sooners. Texas Tech beat Oklahoma outright last year in Norman as a four-touchdown underdog. Now they are catching just under a touchdown (5.5), and the line on this game has actually been coming down.
4. Penn State (4-1) –I said it last week: the Nittany Lions might be one of the most undervalued teams in the nation. They laid the wood to Illinois (aided by rampant stupidity on the part of the Illini), and their offense has been getting better and better. Now Penn State has a small home line against a Top 25 team in Northwestern. People still want to bet against this Nittany Lions team.
5. Fresno State (5-0) – The Bulldogs have a tough task this week. They were able to shoot down San Diego State in a great Mountain West game last Saturday. Now they have to find the motivation to beat down a woeful Colorado State team as an 18-point favorite. Fresno State is just 7-17 ATS against teams with a losing record and just 3-8 ATS in conference play. But they are clearly the superior team here.
6. Mississippi (4-1) – I thought that the A&M-Ole Miss line was one of the more shocking spreads on the board this weekend. And it tells me that the Rebels are still disrespected despite earning the cash against Alabama. This is Texas A&M’s first road game in an SEC park, and Ole Miss has already gone toe-to-toe with Bama and Texas over the last month. Call me crazy, but I think Mississippi could win this one outright this week.
7. Purdue (3-1) – The Boilermakers have been a sleeper team in the Big Ten to this point in the season. But I actually had to drop them down in the profit-power rankings because their value has actually slipped a bit. That is evidenced by their short three-point line this week against struggling Michigan. I was hoping that the Wolverines would remain overvalued and this line would be closer to 7.0 or 8.0. But the fact that it is just a field goal lets me know that oddsmakers and bettors are both onto Purdue.
8. San Jose State (5-0) – The Spartans just keep cashing tickets as they got the job done on the road last week at Navy. That is now back-to-back road wins. The Spartans have a bye this week and have extra time to prepare for a really crucial WAC game at home against Utah State next week.
9. Western Kentucky (5-0) – It seems like just yesterday that this team was getting freight-trained while they tried to get on their feet as a Division I program. Now the Hilltoppers are an ATM machine after three straight impressive wins. WKU is off this Saturday, but they have a brutal stretch coming up starting Thursday with a trip to Troy, followed by games against UL-Monroe and at Florida International.
10. Oregon State (3-0) – This is another team that slid down in my rankings even though they won and covered again last week at Arizona.But now that Oregon State resides in the Top 20 they invariably lose some value. They are healthy 16-point favorites this week against Washington State and are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 matchups with the Cougars. Oregon State is also 54-26-2 ATS after a win against the spread, so they are a streak team for bettors. Let’s see how hot they can get.
11. UCLA (4-1) –The Bruins took care of business last week against Colorado. Now they have to tangle with a desperate Cal team this Saturday. The spread on that game has UCLA installed as a small road chalk. But that has more to do with how bad the Golden Bears have been than how good UCLA is. The Bruins schedule gets a lot tougher from here on out, and it will be interesting to see how long they can keep their coverlicious run going.
12. Arizona State (4-1) –Todd Graham’s group just keeps getting the job done. They benefitted from a great situational edge over Cal and took full advantage. They are on a bye week. But then their focus will be tested with a trip to Boulder to take on the bumbling Buffaloes the week before a huge home game with Oregon.
13. Duke (4-1) –Everyone said that this was supposed to be the year that Duke broke through and finally started to show some progress in the ACC. David Cutcliffe’s group is on the verge of doing just that. But if they are going to accomplish their dream of going to a bowl game, then this week’s tilt with Virginia is a must-win. Duke is actually favored in this game, but it is a short line. Duke is 5-1 ATS at home against the Cavs and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
14. South Carolina (4-1) –USC has consistently come up small in big games under Steve Spurrier. And there won’t be any bigger game for the Gamecocks this season than this weekend’s nationally televised tilt with Georgia. That South Carolina is laying only one point tells me that they are a bit disrespected. USC has never beaten Georgia three straight times. But the Cocks are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
15. Ball State (4-1) –Usually the MAC is well-represented in the Ferringo 15, as some of the most profitable teams in the country usually resided in this potent mid-major league. This year is no different, with Kent State (3-1), Toledo (4-1) and Northern Illinois (3-1-1) all off to strong ATS starts. But I am going with Ball State because the Cardinals might have the best quarterback and the lowest expectations of any of the four teams I mentioned. They are home underdogs this week to Northern Illinois, which proves that they still have some value left. Well, that, or it tells me that everyone is aware that the Cardinals are just 5-15 ATS at home and just 2-5 ATS against the Huskies.
Honorable Mention: Ohio, Northwestern, Florida, UL-Monroe, Toledo, and Cincinnati
The Ferringo 15 college football power rankings are my profit/power rankings. They are a ranking of the 15 teams I feel currently have the most value in college football betting. It is a not merely a reward for past achievement at the window, but more a total overview of past, present, and future projected achievement against the spread.
Robert Ferringo is a professional handicapper and has posted 23 of 35 profitable months with his combined college and NFL football selections. Robert has banked nearly $10,000 in football profit over the last 11 months he has had football picks and will keep it going this week. He is looking forward to building on his stellar football handicapping resume again this fall and you can check him out here.