Looking at last week’s results in the NFL, the “under” once again had the advantage with nine of the 16 games staying under the total, but the line has remained razor sharp over the past seven weeks with 48 games going “over”, 50 games staying under and three games ending as a “push”. I finally got back to my winning ways last week with my top three picks at 2-1 to improve to 16-12-1 over the past 10 weeks. It was back to work early this week to dig deep into all of Sunday’s matchups to try and unearth the value in the total line.
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Each week of the NFL regular season, my goal is to find a few golden opportunities to cash in on the total line in Sunday’s matchups. The following are my top three NFL selections for Week 14 in the NFL with lines provided by BetOnline.
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 39.5
It does not get any blacker and bluer than this with Chicago on the road against the Vikings in desperate need of a win to keep pace with Green Bay in the NFC North. The Bears are coming off a brutal 23-17 overtime loss to Seattle and have now scored less than 20 points in three of their last four games.
Minnesota still has an outside shot at the division title but would need everything to go right to actually win it. This could be tough considering that the Vikings have just one win it their last five outings while managing only 19 points a game. With the offense sputtering down the stretch, they will have to rely on a very balanced defense that is ranked 14th in the NFL against both the pass and the run to keep this game close.
Game Betting Trends
The total line for this game opened at 39.5 and has held steady ever since. Weather will not be a factor with the game in a dome, but past trends still point to a low-scoring contest. The total has stayed under in 20 of the Bears last 29 games following a SU loss and in four of the Vikings last five games against the division. It has also stayed under in three of the last five meetings between the two.
Game Prediction: UNDER 39.5
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 49
Tennessee is riding out the string after four losses in its last five games took it out of the playoff race. Looking back at this stretch of games, other than a 37-3 shocker over Miami in Week 10, the Titans offense has struggled to generate any kind of consistency with an average of 15.5 points a game in the four losses.
Indianapolis continues to find ways to win games with six victories in its last seven games, but the Colts tend to score points according to the level of its competition. During this run, the Colts have only managed to score more than 24 points twice and needed overtime to get by the Titans, 19-13, the first time they met this season.
Game Betting Trends
The total opened at 49, and while it has dipped a bit with a few other books remains at this number with BetOnline. The current form of both these team’s offense suggests a struggle to find the end zone, and the past trends in this series firmly support a low-scoring game. The total has stayed under in 13 of the last 16 meetings overall and in 10 of the last 11 games played in Indianapolis.
Game Prediction: UNDER 49
New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants (4:25 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 53
It is pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Saints will miss the playoffs this season, but that will not stop Drew Brees from slinging the ball all over the field this Sunday against New York. He has thrown for 3,674 yards and 31 touchdowns so far and has also been picked off 16 times, including five interceptions in last Thursday night’s loss to Atlanta.
The Jekyll-and-Hyde Giants dropped a huge 17-16 decision on the road against Washington this past Monday night after pounding Green Bay 38-10 at home the week before. Eli Manning is well aware that he is going to have to get his team in the end zone to win this game, so look for a big passing day from him as well in this Sunday’s matchup.
Game Betting Trends
The total opened at 53 and has remained steady so far. Weather should not be a factor this Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium, so I am taking the bait on the high total line. Both teams rolled up well over 70 total points in each of the last two meetings, including the Saints 49-24 victory last season at the Superdome. The total has gone over in 11 of New Orleans last 13 games against the NFC and in four of New York’s last five outings following a Monday night game.
Game Prediction: OVER 53
YTD Record: 19-16-1
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