The total line in the NFL remained fairly even for the second-straight week with eight of the 14 games staying “under” the closing line. I was also on the plus side of my top three picks for a second-straight week with a 2-1 record. After a very slow start, my year-to-date record has now neared .500 at 7-8.

Each week of the NFL regular season, my goal is to uncover a few golden opportunities to cash in on the “over/under” bet by seeking out the value in the total lines. The following are my top three NFL picks for this week’s schedule of games with lines provided by BetOnline. (All times EST)

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Sunday, Oct.14

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Dolphins (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 37.7

Game Overview

St. Louis has carved out a 3-2 start despite having an offense that has not scored more than 19 points in its last three games. The Rams are getting the job done with a stingy defense that is ranked 14th in the NFL in total yards allowed and ninth in scoring in giving up an average of just 18.8 points a game. They have given up a total of 16 points in their last two games.

Miami is another team that has been less-than-stellar on offense behind rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill but has made up for that lack of production with a shutdown defense that has not given up more than 24 points in its last four games since getting tagged with 30 on opening weekend against Houston.

Game Betting Trends

The total line for this game opened at 37.5 points and has held steady ever since. While this is an awfully low number for any NFL matchup, the total has stayed under in the Rams last three games and in four of their last five games following a straight up win. The total has also stayed under in seven of the Dolphins last 11 games following a SU win and in 13 of their last 20 games overall.

Game Pick: UNDER

Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 47.5

Game Overview

Detroit is coming off a bye week with just one win in its first four games. The Lions offense is averaging 25 points a game, but they have been plagued by a defense that is ranked 26th in the league in points allowed in giving up an average of 28.5 points a game. It has been tagged for a total of 91 points in its last three games.

Philadelphia’s vaunted offense, with arguably some of the most potent weapons in the league, has sputtered so far with an average of 16 points a game. It is ranked 10th in the league in rushing and 13th in passing the ball, so you know that it is only a matter of time before Michael Vick puts it all together for a break-out game, which could very easily be this week.  

Game Betting Trends

This total line has crept up to 48 after opening at 47.5, so there is some early action on the over. These two have not met since 2010, when the total went way over the 41-point line in an Eagles’ 35-32 victory. The total has gone over in four of the Lions last six games overall and in three of Philadelphia’s last five home games. Look for the points to suddenly fly for both these teams in an unexpected shootout.

Game Pick: OVER

New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers (4:25 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 44.5

Game Overview

New York has a tendency to score points in bunches. And while it is ranked second in the league in scoring with 30.4 points a game, it has struggled against some of the better defenses it has faced. Eli Manning and Co. only managed to put up 17 points against Dallas at home on opening day and was held to 17 points on the road in a Week 4 loss to Philadelphia.

San Francisco is another team that can find the end zone when it needs to, but its bread-and-butter remains a shut-down defense that is ranked first in the NFL in points allowed. It held Green Bay to 22 points on the road in Week 1 and has now surrendered a grand total of three points in its last two games.

Game Betting Trends

The line opened at 44.5 and has not moved off that point, so it is right where it needs to be. This matchup will be a true litmus test for the Giants high-powered offense on the road against one of the best defenses in the league. The total has stayed under in New York’s last four games on the road and in three of the last five meetings between the two.

Game Pick: UNDER

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