Welcome back to Doc’s Sports for another round of basic strategy teaser analysis. Last week basic strategy teasers went 4-1. They are 51-8 on the season and have been winning at 86 percent rate. The teasers are also producing a 50 cent profit for every dollar bet on the proposition and have been excellent value wagers over the course of the season. Here is a look at the best three basic strategy teaser plays for Week 13.
(All Lines come from 5Dimes)
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New England at Miami Dolphins
Original spread: Patriots -8.5
Six-point teaser: Patriots -2.5
The New England Patriots have gotten back on track after their uncharacteristically slow start to the season, and are, arguably, the best team in the AFC right now. The Patriots have won seven of their last eight games and are an astonishing 19-0 during the second half of the season since 2010. Coach Bill Belichick has his team in prime form heading into the last few weeks of the season as they have outscored their last five opponents by 112 points.
The Miami Dolphins, surprisingly, are still in contention for the final wild card spot in the AFC, sitting on a record of 5-6. But, unfortunately, for the Dolphins, their playoff contention is more of a result of a weak AFC than anything they are doing. Miami has lost three of its last four games and is allowing over 261 passing yards per game, which plays right into New England’s strengths. The Dolphins could conceivably keep the game close, but expect the Patriots to win this game and cover the new, lowered spread.
San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams
Original spread: 49ers -8
Six-point teaser: 49ers -2
The San Francisco 49ers are in the middle of a full-blown quarterback controversy created by none other than Jim Harbaugh himself, but lost in the hoopla of who will start under center this weekend is the fact that the 49ers continue to rack up wins. The last time these two teams met, during Week 10, the game ended in a disappointing tie — and, quite honestly, that is probably the best that the St. Louis Rams can hope to do against power house 49ers this week.
San Francisco has a 4-1 ATS road record and has covered three of their last four games. The Rams, on the other hand, have a 3-3 ATS home record and have covered two of their last four spreads. The 49ers still have that Week 10 tie fresh in their memories, so this is a spot where it will be hard for them to take the Rams lightly. San Francisco will probably cover the original spread, so teasing them down to a two-point favorite is an excellent wager to have.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos
Original spread: Broncos -8
Six-point teaser: Broncos -2
The Denver Broncos have looked like legitimate Super Bowl contenders for the majority of the season, and they will face a stiff test this week against a desperate Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that is fighting for its playoffs life. The Buccaneers are tied for the final playoff spot in the NFC with the Seattle Seahawks and will probably need to win four of their last five games to get in.
I fully expect this to be a tight matchup that will see the Buccaneers stay within striking distance for most of the game. But the Broncos have won seven of their last eight games, have a solid 5-2 record as the ATS favorite, and are simply the better team. This will probably be a close game, but teasing Denver down to a two-point favorite should be enough to cover spread.
This week has three solid games to use in a basic strategy teaser wager. All three games look to be solid propositions, but if I had to choose a team to pull off an upset I would go with the Buccaneers — they are the team in most desperate need of a win. I still believe teasing the Broncos down to a two-point favorite is an excellent position to have, but it would not be shocking to see them lose. Remember to bet wisely, and may the spread be with you.
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