Week 14 NFL Teasers Advice: Best Three for Basic Strategy Teases
by George J Monroy - 12/4/2012
The NFL is winding down with only a few weeks left to play in the season. Many teams are still fighting for their playoff lives, but the vast majority of them have already had their post season fates settled. So, over the next four weeks, we should be able to find some excellent gambling opportunities betting teams that have the playoffs on the line versus teams that are essentially just playing to finish off the season. If we are lucky, we should be able to find some excellent basic strategy teaser opportunities to end the season. Here are Week 14’s three best basic strategy teasers.
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(All lines come from 5Dimes)
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Original spread: Buccaneers -8
Six-point teaser: Buccaneers -2
The Philadelphia Eagles have not won a game since Week 5, all the way back in October -- and even way back then, they barely won that game. The Eagles three wins have come by a combined total of four points, and the team could easily have gone winless this entire season. Michael Vick is out. Nick Foles is in. Andy Reid is still the coach. This is a situation where things can only get worse for the team. They have lost their last six games by an average of 13 points and have given up 28 points or more in all of them. It would not be shocking at all to see the Eagles lose the rest of their games this season.
If Philadelphia’s troubles alone weren’t enough to convince you to take Tampa Bay, then, maybe, the Buccaneers playoff situation will be. The team is currently sitting on a 6-6 record and has been on a solid run over the last eight weeks. Tampa Bay is right in the middle of the NFC wild card race and still controls its own destiny. If the team can win out and get to a 10-6 record they would, at least, be in a tie break situation for one of the wild card spots. Needless to say, the Buccaneers still have a lot on the line, while the Eagles are just waiting for the season to end. Teasing Tampa Bay down to a two-point favorite is as solid of a wager you can hope for.
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
Original spread: Jaguars +2
Six-point teaser: Jaguars +8
The New York Jets are on the short list of teams that cannot be trusted right now. I would advise any gambler to stay away from betting them -- they couldn’t even cover the spread against an Arizona Cardinals team that was on a seven-game losing streak. But, betting against them, especially while on the road, is a sold wager to make. Last week the Jets went from a two-man quarterback controversy to a full blow mess at the position. Who are they supposed to start this week: Greg McElroy, Tim Tebow, or Mark Sanchez? To be quite honest, it probably won’t even matter, as the team has completely fallen apart.
Betting on the 2-10 Jacksonville Jaguars is usually not a position that you want to be in, but the team has done substantially better against the spread. And, besides, they are playing the Jets this week. Jacksonville has a 6-6 ATS record and a 6-5 record as the ATS underdog. The sportsbooks have the Jets as a two-point favorite, so if they are expecting a close game, it is extremely difficult to imagine the Jets going above and beyond the oddsmakers’ expectations and winning by more than eight points. Teasing the Jaguars up to eight-point underdogs at home is a great spot to wager on.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Orignal spread: Vikings +2
Six-point teaser: Vikings +8
The Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings will be meeting for the second time in a three-week span. The Bears dominated the first matchup to the tune of a 28-10 victory. This week’s game will clear up the NFC playoff picture a bit as both teams are in need of a win to keep pace with the Green Bay Packers for the NFC North Division lead and Seattle Seahawks for the final wild card spot.
The Vikings are 6-6 and need to win out in order to have a shot at one of the final wild card spots in the NFC. The Bears can afford to lose here, and with an 8-4 record are the strong favorites to lock up one of the wild card spots if they don’t win their division. So, even if the Vikings do not win this game, they will play it until the very end and should, at the very least, be able to keep it within a touchdown. Teasing the Vikings up to an eight-point underdog should be enough to cover the spread.
There are only four weeks left in the NFL regular season, so now would be the time to take advantage of the last few basic strategy teaser opportunities on the schedule. Last week the teasers went 3-1 and are 54-9 on the season for an 85 percent win rate. Of this week’s three basic strategy teases, I like the Buccaneers over the Eagles the best and the Vikings to cover against the Bears the least, but still think there is excellent value in getting Minnesota plus eight points at home. Remember to bet wisely, and may the spread be with you.
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