Welcome to Doc's Sports Service Bookmaker Banner
spacer  
spacer spacer
Welcome to Doc's Sports Service spacer
Welcome to Doc's Sports Service Welcome to Doc's Sports Service
Welcome to Doc's Sports Service
Click Here to Purchase Doc's Picks
Basketball Picks   |   Hockey picks   |   NBA picks
Football Picks   |   NFL Picks   |   Breeders Cup
spacer



Live Lines and Odds NFL Odds
spacer
College Football Odds
spacer
NBA Odds
spacer
College
   Basketball Odds

spacer
MLB Odds
spacer
NHL Odds
spacer
Breeders Cup Odds
spacer
WNBA Odds
spacer
CFL Odds
spacer
Boxing Odds
spacer
Golf Odds
spacer
Soccer Odds
spacer
Week 8 NFL Odds
spacer
Doc's Rotation
spacer

Free Picks by Sport Free NFL Picks
spacer
Free College Football Picks
spacer
Free MLB Picks
spacer
Free NASCAR Picks
spacer
Free NBA Picks
spacer
Free College Basketball Picks
spacer
Free NHL Picks
spacer
All Free Picks
spacer

Handicapping Matchup Reports NFL
spacer
NCAA Football
spacer
NBA
spacer
NCAA Basketball
spacer
MLB
spacer
NHL
spacer

Scores NFL
spacer
NCAA Football
spacer
NBA
spacer
NCAA Basketball
spacer
MLB
spacer
NHL
spacer

Schedules NFL Schedule
spacer
College Football Schedule
spacer
College Basketball Schedule
spacer
MLB Schedule
spacer
NBA Schedule
spacer
NHL Schedule
spacer
Monday Night Football Schedule
spacer

Upcomming Event Coverage Monday Night Football Picks and Predictions
spacer
2014 Heisman Trophy Odds
spacer
MLB Futures Odds
spacer




Bookmaker Banner
spacer
spacer
Home
spacer
View Picks
spacer
Why Doc's Sports?
spacer
Our Betting System
spacer
Sports Betting Strategy
spacer
Message from the GM
spacer
Our Commitment
spacer
Customer Comments
spacer
Free Picks
spacer
Contact Doc's
spacer

The Advisory Board
Our Commitment
spacer
Doc's Sports
spacer
Robert Ferringo
spacer
Allen Eastman
spacer
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
spacer
Indian Cowboy
spacer
Jason Sharpe
spacer
Strike Point Sports
spacer
Mike Davis
spacer

Betting Systems
11th Hour Sports
spacer
The Prop Machine
spacer

Recomended Sportsbooks Bovada Sportsbook
spacer
Bodog Sportsbook
spacer
Sports Interaction
spacer
5Dimes Sportsbook
spacer
BookMaker
spacer
Sportsbook
spacer
Carbon Sports
spacer
WagerWeb
spacer
BetCRIS
spacer
BetOnline Sportsbook
spacer
GT Bets
spacer
SuperBook
spacer
SportsBettingOnline.ag
spacer
Sportsbook Bonus
spacer

Handicapping Resources
Mobile Website Directions
spacer
Weekly NFL Survivor Pool Picks
spacer
NFL Power Rankings 2014
spacer
NFL Office Pool Picks
spacer
Sports Betting Money Managment
spacer
Handicapping FAQ
spacer
Sports Betting 101
spacer
How To Betting Articles
spacer
Sports Betting Tips
spacer
Parlay Calculator
spacer
Sports Betting Systems
spacer
Parlay Cards
spacer
Gambling Terms
spacer
2014 Archives
spacer
2013 Archives
spacer
2012 Archives
spacer
2011 Archives
spacer
2010 Archives
spacer
Doc's Affiliate Program
spacer
Doc's Writer Bios
spacer
Doc's rss feedDoc's RSS feed



spacer
spacer

Weekly Football Betting Public Action Report
by Trevor Whenham - 11/16/2012

Share |
Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Ron Zook

The down cycle for the Public Action Report continued last week. Only a late rally by Virginia against Miami that earned a push avoided an 0-4 ATS weekend. The fundamentals behind this report have proven sound over the years, so this current month of frustration is just a reminder of how hard sports betting can be, and how important it is to maintain a long-term view when the short term sucks.

Time for another quick reminder of what the Public Action Report is all about. Typically when the action on a game is unbalanced — more than 70 percent of bets placed on one team — we would expect the line movement to make the popular team less attractive so that the action doesn’t get more unbalanced for the books. What we are interested in, though, is the games in which the action is unbalanced, yet the line move makes the popular team even more attractive. When the line movement is the opposite of what you would expect it typically means that the smart money — a small number of high-dollar, successful, intelligent professionals — is on the unpopular side. That means that the unpopular team is worth a close look. The purpose of the Report isn’t to suggest games you should bet on blindly. It’s far more valuable as a way to spot games you might want to look closer at, and to change your mind on games you might have been thinking about betting.

Get a $100 Free Bet,
Paid Cash No Rollovers

promocode FREEBET
at Sportsbook.com
(Offer good for new customers only)
Click Here

There are only three games that fit the criteria in all of football this week — and none in the NFL, where the Report has definitely been stronger. Without further ado:

CFB

Illinois (+6) vs. Purdue (Saturday, Nov. 17, 3:30 p.m. ET)

More than three-quarters of bets have been on the Boilermakers, yet the lie opened at the key number of seven and has fallen a point since then. That’s the opposite of what we would expect, and because it involves a key number it is more significant than it otherwise would be. That means that Illinois is worth a close look in this one. In some places the books even opened the line at 7.5 before moving it down, so they exposed themselves to the possibility of being middled at a key number. Books hate when that happens, so they have to have a good reason to make a move like this. Illinois is a lousy team riding a seven-game losing streak. Purdue isn’t exactly a dominant squad, either, though — they have dropped five of their last six and have failed to cover five of their last seven, and they are dealing with the distraction of a coach who is all but certain to be fired at the end of the year. They have little to play for — especially on the road against a lousy team — and could easily be unfocused. That could give Illinois the edge they need to cover this spread.

Michigan State (-7.5) vs. Northwestern (Saturday, Nov. 17, 12 p.m. ET)

The story here is the opposite of the last game. Here the underdog, Northwestern, has drawn three-quarters of the action, yet the line has moved from 6.5 to 7.5. That means that the Spartans draw our attention in this one. Northwestern is coming off a crushing come-from-ahead overtime loss in Michigan last week, and the Wildcats have now blown leads in two of their last three and have lost three of their last five. They are going to be a weary and frustrated team, and this game is one that could certainly see them come out flat and play poorly. The Spartans have lost three of their last four, but one game was in overtime and the other two were by two and four points — and they have come against solid opposition. They have beaten Northwestern four times in a row, and the movement here suggests that they could do so again.

South Alabama (+7) vs. Middle Tennessee State (Saturday, Nov. 17, 3:30 p.m. ET)

More than 70 percent of bets have been on Middle Tennessee in this one, yet the line has dropped a full field goal from ten points to seven. That means we should look at South Alabama. I won’t pretend to know much about either of these teams — especially 2-8 South Alabama. That’s a significant line move, though, so the game is worth our attention. When a game is a low-volume one like this then one big money, confident bettor can move the line significantly. A bettor like that will typically have a good reason to be on the game, so these situations are particularly intriguing.

Doc’s Sports is offering $60 worth of member’s picks absolutely free – no obligation, no sales people – you don’t even have to enter credit card information. You can use this $60 credit any way you please for any handicapper and any sport on Doc’s Sports Advisory Board list of expert sports handicappers. Click here for more details and take advantage of this free $60 picks credit today.

Share |

Most Recent Weekly Sports Betting and Handicapping News Articles