We got lucky last week. We ended up just 2-2 against the spread on the four games highlighted in the Public Action Report. That’s a small loss thanks to the juice, but it could have been much worse if it weren’t for the replacement refs — Seattle was one of the teams identified in the report, so their botched call was our win. That brings us to 8-9 ATS on the year. That’s not where we want it to be yet, but the report has generally heated up as the season has progressed.
I am not one to complain about bad beats or close losses, but on that front last week was frustrating. We isolated Cal +16 at USC. USC won by 18. In the NFL we had Miami +2.5. vs. the Jets, and New York won by a field goal in overtime. Close doesn’t count for much in sports betting, but at least it is reassurance that we aren’t completely off track.
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We’ll get a good chance to get back on track this week because there are so many games. Last week there was uncharacteristically just one game from the college ranks. This week we come back with five, and one more from the NFL to go with it. Because we have so many to choose from you can look back to last week for the criteria we use to identify teams — remember, there is no subjective factor in this report at all. Without further ado:
Iowa (-7.5) vs. Minnesota (Saturday, Sept. 29, 12 p.m. ET)
The surprisingly unbeaten Gophers have drawn nearly three-quarters of all bets in this one, yet the line for them has moved from +5.5. to +7.5. That’s a significant move given that it goes through the key number of seven. That means that Iowa is worth a look here, and that’s noteworthy because underdogs are identified far more often than favorites. Minnesota hasn’t exactly played a tough schedule, and their only road game was an ugly overtime win against lousy UNLV, so it’s not hard to understand why backing Iowa makes sense — even if they haven’t been great so far. It’s also important to note that the game can be found at 7.0 in many spots, and that would be far more attractive to bet if you do take Iowa.
Boston College (+7) vs. Clemson (Saturday, Sept. 29, 3:30 p.m. ET)
More than 80 percent of bets have been on the Tigers, yet the line has fallen from 9.5 to 7.0. That means that Boston College is worth a look. Clemson is coming off a tough loss to Florida State, so a letdown is possible here. they will also be without star receiver Sammy Watkins.
SMU (+16) vs. TCU (Saturday, Sept. 29, 7 p.m. ET)
Nearly 80 percents of bets have been on the newest members of the Big 12, yet the line has dropped from 17.5 to 16. That’s a show of support for SMU. The Mustangs won their meeting last year. While SMU is off to a rough start, TCU’s achievements have been inflated by a soft schedule to date and they likely aren’t as good as they appear.
Mississippi (+30) at Alabama (Saturday, Sept. 29, 9:15 p.m. ET)
Alabama is as public as a team can get, so any surprising line movement involving them is very interesting. About three-quarters of all bets have been on the Tide, yet the line has dropped from 32 to 30. Despite their dominance Alabama is just 2-2 ATS because of the giant spreads they face each week. Ole Miss is coming off a confidence-building dismantling of Tulane. They won’t win, but they could keep this one close enough to pay off.
Southern Miss (+10) vs. Louisville (Saturday, Sept. 29, 12 p.m. ET)
The Cardinals have drawn 80 percent of bets, yet the line has dropped from 11 to the key number of 10. That means that Southern Miss is worth a look. The Golden Eagles are off to a rough 0-3 start, but they are better than their record and could start to prove it at home here. Louisville is getting a lot of attention after a 4-0 start, but they are just 2-2 ATS and have been more competent than dominant in their last two.
Miami Dolphins (+5.5) at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, Sept. 30, 4 p.m. ET)
Nearly 80 percent of bets have been on the home team now that the Cardinals are the most unexpected 3-0 team in recent history. Despite that, the line has dropped from 6.5 to 5.5, so Miami is worth a look. Despite their 1-2 record the Dolphins have been solid in their last two — especially defensively — so they have the ability to keep this one close. Arizona is on a roll, but they were able to exploit a troubled Philadelphia squad last week, and aside from that they have been playing close games.
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