Weekly Philadelphia Eagles Betting Picks: Week 11 vs. Redskins
by Dave Schwab - 11/14/2012
The Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Redskins renew a long-standing NFC East rivalry this Sunday afternoon when the two teams clash at FedEx Field in a battle to get out of the basement in the division. The game is set to kickoff at 1 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast on FOX.
This weekly betting preview is part of a season-long series where I use my years of experience from covering the Eagles to take a closer look at each week’s matchup and offer a free NFL pick utilizing Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System. You should always try to concentrate on what you know best when it comes to wagering on the NFL. Focusing your handicapping efforts on a particular team has been a proven way to enhance your overall betting strategy.
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Betting Lines by BetOnline
Pointspread: Washington -3.5
Total Line: 44
Game Overview: Philadelphia
Philadelphia’s 38-23 loss to Dallas last Sunday as a one-point home underdog extended its current losing streak to five games and put the first nail in the coffin on the season as it fell to 3-6 straight-up on the year. The Eagles have been a nightmare to wager on this season with a 1-7-1 record against the spread and have not covered since a Week 5 loss to Pittsburgh.
The big news coming out of last week’s game is that quarterback Michael Vick is on the shelf for the near future after sustaining a concussion. This paves the way for much-hyped rookie Nick Foles to make his first NFL start in the regular season. Foles actually played in relief of Vick against the Cowboys. And while he looked like a rookie with an interception and lost fumble that resulted in 14 points for Dallas, he also completed 21-of-31 attempts for 219 yards and one touchdown. His big arm sets the stage for some big plays against a very porous Redskins’ secondary, but he will have to prove he is mobile with a patchwork offensive line for protection.
Game Overview: Washington
The last time we saw the Redskins, all head coach Mike Shanahan could say about his team was that he was disappointed after an ugly loss to lowly Carolina. Coming off a bye, Washington is also 3-6 SU on the year and 4-5 ATS. It has just one SU win in its last five games and the total has stayed “under” in four of the five outings.
The Redskins have been going with a rookie quarterback all season long in Robert Griffin III, and the results have been mixed. He has shown flashes of brilliance throughout the season, but the reality of being a rookie quarterback in the NFL is also setting in. RG III has thrown for 1,993 yards while completing 65.6 percent of his throws, but he has just eight touchdowns on the year. He has been able to use his legs to rush for 529 yards and six additional scores, which could be his biggest asset against an undisciplined and poor-tackling Philly defense. The main problem with the Redskins this season has been a defense that is ranked 30th in the NFL against the pass and 27th in points allowed.
Game Betting Trends
The Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against the NFC East but just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a losing record. The total has stayed under in their last six road games.
The Redskins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine division games but 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a bye week and 1-4 ATS in their last five games at home. The total has gone “over” in six of their last eight home games.
Head-to-head, the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the total has gone 3-2-1 in the last six games. Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings and 3-0 ATS in the last three.
Once again I took it on the chin with my pick after Dallas scored 21 points in just over two minutes to take last week’s game way over the total. Turning to this week’s matchup, your confidence in Philadelphia depends on your confidence in Nick Foles. I watched him very closely in the preseason. And while he was fearless in the pocket, what impressed me most was the ability to throw the ball downfield. Look for a couple of big strikes to DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, which has been missing from the Eagles’ passing attack all season long. The game remains close to the end, but I like the extra half point on the current spread to tip the scales in Philadelphia’s favor. Utilizing Doc’s Unit Betting System take the Eagles over Washington for 3 Units.
Take #411 Philadelphia (+3.5) over Washington for 3 Units
Year-to-Date Record: -21 Units (-$2340)