IC's Daily Notes and Calculus Model Predictions
5* NHL Selection Today!
Going for 6 Straight NHL Winners!
Season: 14-6 (70%) - Winning NHL Season!
51-24 (+5610) Run
3* Tuesday: Under 5.5 Carolina (4-1) (W)
3* Monday: Under 5.5 Montreal/Edmonton (3-0) (Ez-W) (Analysis Below)
4* Saturday: Washington -115 over Calgary (3-1) (Ez-W) (We Predicted Exact Score!)
3* Friday: Under 5.5 Columbus vs. Calgary (4-1) (+110) (W)
2* Thursday: Minnesota -180 over Arizona (W)
7* Wednesday: Washington -150 over Edmonton (L)
3* Tuesday: Nashville -150 over Arizona (4-3) (W)
3* Monday: Under 5.5 Tampa Bay/Edmonton (3-2) (W)
3* Sunday: NY Rangers -115 over San Jose (4-0) (Ez-W)
2* Saturday: Washington -210 over Florida (1-0) (W)
3* Friday: Florida -115 over Buffalo (1-0) (W)
"IC-7" Football Card Released Today!
7* SEC Selection (Texas A&M vs. Louisiana Monroe, Saturday @ Noon est! 7-3, 70% in SEC this Year!)
7* NFL Selection: Ravens vs. Steelers (Sunday @ 8pm) (5-1 Top Plays, 48 point Differential Combined last two top Plays - Last Sunday Night play 24 Pt. Differnetial on Eagles/Giants Under 51 - Final 27-0)
6-1 Overall last 4 Days! (+2770)
2-0 NFL Sunday! (+1000) - Winning Football Week!
7* NFL: Over 50 Bears/Patriots (51-23) (Ez-W)
3* NFL: Cardinals -2.5 over Eagles (24-20 (W)
Winning NFL Season! (3 of 4 Winning Football Weeks!)
7* NBA Winner Yesterday! (Analysis Below!)
Portland -8.5 over OKC (106-89) - We called a 15/16 point winner and it was a 17 point Differential. This is why we had the #1 NBA Season in the Country last Year.
29-12 (70%) Now in NBA Step-Outs (+9920)
******#1 NBA in America in 2013! (94-62, 60%, +12,890), Documented Spreadsheet: Best Season in any sport in History of our Career!******http://www.docsports.com/pdf/2013-nba-ic.pdf
*28-12 (69%) in Step-Outs
*2nd Half of Season: 53-34 (62.5%) (+8310)
*Playoffs: 24-13 (66%) for +4710
*Only 156 NBA Selections per year
Baseball 2013 Season Results: 107-83 (56.3%) for +3924. 8* World Series Winner! (Royals/Giants Over 7, 10-0 Final, Hits in 3rd Inning!)
*****#1 NBA/CBB (Insane) Combined Season in America Last Season!*****
156-107 (59%) for +17,310 Last Year (Spreadsheets below) - We believe we can do +20,000 Combined between NBA/CBB this Year! Early Bird NBA/CBB Packages Up! (Limited Time Only!)
"IC-263 Basketball Process" - Our Selective yet Simple, 1 Play per Day Approach which led to the #1 Basketball Season in America!
Note from Team IC Basketball:
If there is a sport we dominate, it is Basketball. No where else in the country can you find a team that put up +17,310 in Combined Basketball NBA/CBB going 94-62 (+12,890) in the NBA and 62-45 (58%) for +4420. That makes 156-107 (59%) for +17,310 and we're very proud of our success last year. We cannot wait for you to join us for our success this year in Basketball as our goal is to go +20,000 in both sports Combined. We love working hard for you and creating fantastic winners and differentials for our clients. We can't wait for you to join us as we rock the house once again in Basketball as we continue to be the #1 Basketball Service in the country going +20,500 in all 3 Basketball Sports which shows our immense ability to create winners across all things Basketball (NBA, CBB and WNBA). Some people can only win in 1 sport basketball - we win in all 3 - including WNBA which shows our Fantastic Prowess in the Sport. And to do that 1 on the POD system, without chasing, with Pure simplicty and selectivity is nothing short of Remarkable.
College Basketball - Our Best Sport - 2013 Season, 62-45 (58%) for +4420, Documented Spreadsheet: http://www.docsports.com/pdf/2013-cbb-ic.pdf
*Conference Play: 42-29 (57%) for +3970
*March Madness: +1900
*Record Breaking January: 21-10 (68%) for +5180
*Winning 4 of 5 Seasons (+9950)
*We only do 107 College Ball Selections per Season
*81-55 (60%) in 2011, for +8400 (#1 in America per Selection) - Winning each of 5 Months
Comp Winners on Insane Run! 18-4 and 9-2 Complimentary Run!
Thursday's Comp: (FSU vs. Louisville) (18-4 and 10-2 Comp Run) (Over Boston Yesterday) Football Video for Week 8 NFL and Major College Football games (50+ Football games, Posted at 10pm est Thursday!. 400-261 (60% in Comps for nearly 2 Year!). 1 of the Most Watched/Subscribed Youtube Oddsmakers in Country! Over 720,000K Views! Subscribe on Youtube for Free Prediction Winners Sooner Each Day! Previous Football Videos and Predictions: http://www.docsports.com/free-sports-picks-daily-videos.html
Daily Comp Video: (Loaded by staff by 9am daily)
8* NBA Future Video for 2014 Season: (Released!)
(Free) NFL Week 8 & College Football Games Predictions, Week of October 24th, 2014:
REMAINDER OF FOOTBALL SEASON JUST $425! (REDUCED!)
7* SEC Selection! (Texas A&M vs. UL Monroe) (7-3, 70% in SEC this Year!)
7* NFL SELECTION THIS WEEKEND! (5-1 Top NFL Pays)
Winning Football Week!
WINNING NFL SEASON!
We contineut to Dominate NFL Top Plays!
7* NFL Total: Over 50 Beas/Patriots (51-23) (Ez-W) - 24 Point Differential
*5-1 with NFL Top Play Football Selections!
Week 8: Over 50 Bears/Patriots (51-23) (Ez-W) (24pt. Diff)
Week 7 NFL: Loins -2.5 over Saints (24-23) (L)
Week 6 NFL: 8* Under 51 Eagles/Giants (27-0) (Ez-W) (24pt. Diff)
Week 5 NFL: 8* Giants -4 over Falcons (30-20 (Ez-W)
Week 4 NFL: 5* Niners -4.5 over Eagles (26-21) (W)
Week 3 NFL: 4* Seahawks -4.5 over Broncos (W)
8* NFL Future on Pittsburgh Steelers Over 8.5 Wins (5-3 Currently)
8* Future Video:
Goal: +6000 & 58%-62% (Winning 6 Straight Sports, and Football will make it 7 Straight!)
That's a positive week for us as we go 2-0 on Sunday with NFL Selections. We have had a winning NFL Season so far and we'll continue to build on this as we look have even a bigger week this upcoming week. Let's look forward to have an exciting Football Card this week after our Reserach and our next set of IC-7 Football Selections. We have won 6 straight winning sports and we're excited to make it 7 straight with a Positive Football Year.
7* Wed: Portland -8.5 over OKC (106-89) (W)
2013: #1 NBA Oddsmaker Last Year! (94-62) (60%) (+12,890)
Goal this Year: 60% and +13,000 Again!
+17,250 since March 2nd, 2013 (#1 in America)
Step-Outs: 28-12 (69%) Overall
2nd Half of Season: 53-35 (62.5%) for (+8310) (#1 in America)
Playoffs: 24-13 (66%) for +4710 (#1 in America)
Nice winner on the docket with our first step-out on Portland over the Kevin Durantless OKC Thunder for a decent public fade. We look to make it back to back winners on the docket in the NBA today and look to start the season 2-1 overall.
It is well documented with our success in Basketball as we had the #1 NBA Winning % in America last year and the #1 NBA/CBB Season last Year! We have a unique and special way of coming up with our own lines and given that we love fading the public, it works extremely well for the NBA and Basketball in general. This includes going 60% in the NBA last year for +12,890 which is nothing short of spectacular combined with success in College Ball (+4420) and success in WNBA for near +21,000 for the entire Basketball year doing just 1 Play of the Day! We can't wait for this year's NBA Season and College Ball Season! We have won 2 of 3 years in the NBA and 4 of 5 years in College Ball including 2011, when we went 60% and +8100 (spreadsheet on right hand side). Join us for both the NBA and College Ball this year as our goal last year was go go +8000 in both sports combined and we hit +17,310. We are going to likely another big success this year focused just our NBA Theory and Big12, SEC, Pac, Big10 and Top 25 Basketball teams.
Goal: 60% and +8400 like we did in 2011 (81-55, +8400)
2013: Winning Season Last Year!
Our Best Sport! We only do 107 College Ball Selections Per Year!
2013 College Basketball Season: 62-45 (58%), Documented Spreadsheet: http://www.docsports.com/pdf/2013-cbb-ic.pdf
*Conference Play: 42-29 (57%) for +3970
*March Madness; +1900
*Record Breaking January: 21-10 (68%) for +5160
*Winning 4 of 5 Seasons (+9950) in that Span!
2011: #1 College Ball Season in America: (81-55, 60% for +8400)
Winning each of the 5 Months in College Ball!
Documented Spreadsheet: http://www.docsports.com/pdf/2011-cbb-ic.pdf
It is well documented that College Basketball is historically our best sport. We come off a strong season in which we went 62-45 (58%) (spreadsheet above) for +4400 and look to do even better this year. This includes winning 4 of 5 seasons and having multiple seasons where we finished #1 in the Country. In 2011, we went 81-55 (60%) for +8400 (spreadsheet above) winning every single month in a dynamic year. We can't wait for College Basketball start as combined NBA/CBB we went 156-107 (59%) for +17,310 which is #1 in America and can't wait to see if we can do +20,000 this Year!
5* Hockey Selection Today! (7pm)
5 STRAIGHT WINNERS!
WINNING SEASON! - OUR INSANE CONTINUES!
9-1 RUN OVERALL!
Season: 14-6 (70%) Overall!!!
Goal: 55% +5000
+5310 Dating back to Last Year!
3* Oct 28th: Under 5.5 Carolina/Vancouver (4-1) (W)
3* Oct 27th: Under 5.5 Edmonton/Montreal (3-0) (Ez-W) (Analysis Below)
3* Oct 25th Washington -115 over Calgary (3-1) (Ez-W) (We Predicted Exact Score!)
3* Oct 24th Under 5.5 Columbus vs. Calgary (4-1) (+110) (W)
2* Oct 23rd: Minnesota -180 over Arizona (W)
8* Oct 22nd: Washington -150 over Edmonton (L)
3* Oct 21st: Nashville -150 over Arizona (4-3) (W)
3* Oct 20th: Under 5.5 Tampa Bay/Edmonton (3-2) (W)
3* Oct 19th: NY Rangers -115 over San Jose (4-0) (Ez-W)
2* Oct 18th: Washington -210 over Florida (1-0) (W)
3* Oct 17th: Florida -115 over Buffalo (1-0) (W)
7* Oct 16th: San Jose -115 over NY Islanders (L)
3* Oct 15th: Boston -115 over Detroit (3-2) (W)
3* Oct 14th: Nashville -175 over Calgary (3-2) (L)
3* Oct 13th: Ottawa -110 over Florida (1-0) (W)
2* Oct 12th: NY Rangers -175 over Torotno (6-3) (L)
3* Oct 11th Under 5.5 Buffalo/Chicago (6-2) (L)
3* Oct 10th: Islanders -120 over Tampa Bay (5-3) (W)
3* Oct 9th: Under 5.5 Florida vs. Tampa Bay (3-2) (W)
2014: 7* NHL Future Video on Washington Capitals (Updated on Season Records pending selection)
2012 NHL Playoffs Sheet: (Record, 22-11, 66% for +4000 Playoffs!) NHL: http://www.docsports.com/pdf/2012-nhl-ic-playoffs.pdf
2012 NHL Season: (Winning Season): NHL: http://www.docsports.com/pdf/2012-nhl-ic.pdf
A Winning Season in Hockey! We keep rolling on what is a 9-1 Spectacular Run and 13-5 on the Sesaon overall. Let's keep rolling in what has been a fantastic start to the hockey season as we keep rolling. It's a fantastic and insane run and we look to keep it going with our models and hard work. Let's continue to rock and roll on the Ice.
#1 Basketball Odds Service in America:
2013 NBA CBB + WNBA (201-146, 58%) = +20,820!
2013 NBA: (94-62, 60%, +12890) - documented spreadsheet- http://www.docsports.com/pdf/2013-nba-ic.pdf
2013 College Ball: 62-45 (58%) for +4420 - documented spreadsheet - http://www.docsports.com/pdf/2013-cbb-ic.pdf
2013 WNBA: 45-39 (54%), +3510
2 of 3 Top Play Selection Winners
11-5 Lifetime with 6* Soccer Selections! (2-0 Win last Weekend with Lille over Nantes!)
2 of 3 top play winners on the Pitch as we look to have a quality week this upcoming week and get the same mojo that allowed us to have a very successful season last yearv (+3500) and a winning world cup (+1188). Early in the soccer season and we're looking forward to have a successful upcmoing week.
Winning 2013 Season! Congrats!
Baseball 2013 Season Results: 107-83 (56.3%) for +3924 - See you next Season!
Contact Docs for Spreadsheet or we will post in a couple days.
3-0 with Baseball 8-Unit Playoff Selections!
8* October 28th: Over 7 San Francisco vs. KC Royals (10-0) (Hits Early!) (Ez-W)
8* October 21st: Over 6.5 San Francisco vs. KC Royals (7-1) (Hits in 7th Inning) (Ez-W)
8* October 10th: Over KC vs. Baltimore (8-7) (Hits in 5th Inning) (Ez-W)
May: 22-10 (69%) for +4149 (#1 Month in America)
Fantastic way to wrap up the season on a positive note as we win yet another 8-Unit selection in the playoffs and end the season 107-83 (56.3%) for +3924. Let's look forward to a great year next year as we look to have back to back successful baseball seasons!
2013/2014: Best year of Odds in our Career!
6 WINNING SPORTS! (#1 in America in 3 Avenues!)
2013 NBA: 94-62 (60%) for +12,890 (#1 in America) [3 of 4 Winnning Seasons]
2013 College Ball: 62-45 (58%) for +4420 [4 of 5 Winning Seasons, +9950]
2014 WNBA: +3510 (45-39, 54%, Winning Season)
2013 NBA/CBB: +17,310 (156-107, 59%) (#1 Combined both sports)
2013 NBA/CBB/WNBA: +20,820 (#1 Combined 3 sports)
2014 Baseball: +3924 (107-83, 56.3% Overall, Winning Season)
2013 Soccer: Winning Euro Season: +3500
2014 World Cup: +1188
MATH MODELS + MOTIVATED TEAMS + DETAILED WRITE-UPS
THURSDAY'S PENDING PREDICTIONS:
3* NBA: ORLANDO VS. WASHINGTON (7PM) (7* Winner on Portland -8.5 yesterday, #1 IN AMERICA IN 2013, 94-62 (60%) FOR +12,890)
5* HOCKEY: PITTSBURGH VS. LA (7PM) (10-1 Run!, 5 Winners in a Row Under Edmonton Monday, Washington on Sunday, Predicted Exact Score! 13-5 Season! (72%) 50-24 or +5310)
7* SEC FOOTBALL: TEXAS A&M VS. LOUISIANA MONROE (7-3 IN SEC THIS YEAR)
3* ACC FOOTBALL: MIAMI VS. NORTH CAROLINA (SATURDAY @ 12:30PM
3* ACC FOOTBALL: PITTSBURGH VS. DUKE (SATURDAY @ NOON)
3* BIG12 FOOTBALL: TCU VS. WEST VIRGINIA (SATURDAY @ 3:30PM) - Downgraded to 3* due to 60% chance of Inclement Weather in Morgantown.
3* PAC FOOTBALL: UCLA VS. ARIZONA (SATURDAY @ 10:30PM)
3* NFL FOOTBALL: DOLPHINS VS. CHARGERS (SUNDAY @ 1PM)
7* NFL FOOTBALL: RAVENS VS. STEELERS (SUNDAY @ 8:30PM) (5-1 Top Plays, Back to Back 24 Point Top Play Differentials!)
COLLEGE BALL: STARTS IN 12 DAYS! (#1 CBB/NBA IN AMERICA IN 2013, 156-107, 59% for +17,310)
7-Unit Play. #724. Take Portland Trailblazers -8.5 over Oklahoma City (106-89) (We called 15-16 point win below, it was a 17 point differential) (Winner)
This is a small public fade but we love to take NBA teams that have a great deal of motivation as this is a league that relies on motivation. This is why you see the ebbs and flow of a league that is constantly in action, teams that dominate, then get trucked the next day and teams that get slaughtered the day before that will show up the next day to a team that is not as motivated as much. You would think guys that get paid this much money would be motivated each and everyday but that's just not the case in the NBA unless of course you run an organization like the Spurs or Clippers becuase of their two respective coaches who we have a great deal of respect for. Per this game, OKC of course is without Durant and if you looked at their preseason games they were dismal without him. Preseason is of course pre-season but it can tell you a great deal about a team. This is a team that lost to New Orleans by 24 points, Toronto by 19 points, Minnesota by 18 points and Utah by 14 points. Note that Utah is outside the top 25 in our power rankings. Do you really think that Portland cares that OKC is without Kevin Durant? Of course not. This team lost the last two times they played against OKC and are more than motivated to take it to Westbrook, Ibaka and everyone else on this team with Durant on the bench. The Thunder have no sync in their offense as Russell gets his own and his shots but there is on cohesiveness. Combine that with the Blazers being motivated from losing terribly to the Spurs in their last game, with that strong motivation, with revenge against OKC, with a decent public fade and given the preseason results of late, don't be surprised here to see Portland get off to a strong start in the highly competitive west as each and every game will decide seeding and the fact if a team will even make it to the playoffs. We like Portland by double-digits here as we see a 15-16 point differential this evening.
8-Unit Play. #901. Take Over 6.5 Runs San Francisco vs. Kansas City (7-1) (Winner)
People always assume that World Series games and playoff games for that matter always typically go under in some sort of pitcher's duel. But why is that the case when many times those games go consistently over. The fallacy is that, these stud pitchers will come in and pitch phenomenal contests and consequently the game goes under. But 9 innings of Baseball is a long time and part of the reason a team is here is not only because of the pitching but also because of the hitting. This is one of the primary reasons why we took the Over for a 8-unit winner between Shields and Lester which hit in the 5th inning in the previous baseball step-out. Note, that its the point of fading the public in general which has helped us get to +3175 on the season as we try to build that to near +4000 with a win on the docket today. Sure Bumgarner has not given up a postseason run for over 20 innings which is a record but that is likely to end here today. In fact, though we think that the Giants will win the first contest here on the road, the over is a solid play. Bumgarner faced a very similar lineup to the Royals in the Cardinals earlier this post season and helped his team win 6-3 if you noted as that contest went to 9 runs. That total was set at 6 runs. And though Bumgarner has dominated on the road, the better question might be how has he fared against AL Teams. He gave up 10 hits in 6 innings and 3 runs to the Tigers this year. He gave up 7 hits in 8 innings and 3 runs to the Royals this year on the road. So Bumgarner does have revenge, but these Royals hitters are some of the most consistent in Baseball and they are likely aware they are indeed the underdog to the guy that has yet to give a postseason run in a record number of innings. These are the type of games that these guys love to get up for and love to break another's record. Note with Medlen was with the Braves and had a similar streak he ended up losing that contest. So, you have an active underdog here with the Royals who have had success as they would love to see the record being broke here. You combine that with Shields being 1-0 this postseason including a 5.63 era facing one of the smartest hitting teams in the league in the Giants who have the postseason experience and that likely makes for an over to a tune of about 8 runs or more this evening. Shields has gone over the posted total the last 4 times he has pitched and against above .500 competent National League teams such as the Cardinals and Dodgers, he has given up 9 runs in 12.1 innings. Look for the Giants to likely win today and score the first set of runs but then look for the Royals to do what they have done all year and claw back similar to the A's vs. Royals game as this contest likely spills over in the later innings. Let's not go against the magic of the Royals but rather take the Over here as the Over is 4-0 for the Giants versus a righty, the over is 4-0 when they face a team with a winning record of late and the Over is 5-1-1 for the Royals when they face a left handed pitcher in their last 7 starts as well. We look for this contest to go over the posted total per our calculus models.
8-Unit Play. #276. Take Under 51 NY Giants vs. Philadelphia (27-0) (24 pt. Differential) (Ez-Winner)
This is a fantastic public fade on a Sunday Night game which is part of the reason why we are stepping out here. The latest consensus poll had this over about 80% but the fact is that these two teams are more defensive minded than people would like to give them credit for. The last time these two teams met, if you remember we stepped out last year on the Total in this game for a 5-unit play on an Under of 49 points and the final score was 15-7 in Giant Stadium on a total of 49 points. Now, the total sits at 51 in a similar type of game. Both these teams have gotten their act together as you see a 3-2 Giant team on the road at Philadelphia. These are the games the Giants thrive on. The last time on primetime they demolished Washington 45-14 Outright. Then they scored 30 points on Atlanta's defense at home. But, Philly's defense is much better than folks give them credit. Throw out the Rams game where they gave up more than 30 points. They were probably looking ahead to this game and its hard to get up for the Rams. But, against elite teams with strong prep, they gave up 26 points to San Fran on the road. This Giant defense also gave up 17 points to Houston at home and 25 points to Arizona in which they were skewered for that loss. Notice, the line in this game is just 2.5 indicating that they are expecting a strong performance from the Giants on the road here. The Giants coaching staff will pride itself on keeping Kelly's offense in check for the most part and will likely challenge Foles to beat them in the air which their cornerbacks will thrive on. Note the Under is 9-2 for the Giants when facing teams on the road with a winning home record. The Under is also 6-2 for the Eagles after allowing 250 yards in their previous game in passing yards and the Under is 4-0 in Philadelphia as well to boot. Look for this contest to be a 24-21 type of final as it lands in the mid 40's rather than the low 50's in which it is set per our models.
3-Unit Play. #125. Take Over 53.5 Florida State vs. Syracuse (38-20) (Winner)
I know it's hard to believe and sometimes you have to hold your nose with our system of fading the public. But that is our mantra as that is one of our basic principles which has worked wonders in Basketball (#1 in NBA, 94-60, +12,800) (65-45, +4400 in College Ball) (#1 in the Country in NBA/CBB at +17,300) (#1 in Country in NBA/CBB/WNBA for +20,300) - this includes being #1 in College Ball in 2011 going 80-50 for +8400. FSU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games with their first ATS win coming against Wake Forrest at home. Note that the Seminoles remember their poor road performance against NC State which nearly cost them the #1 ranking as they were down early and often. Though they did bounce-back somewhat against Wake, they will want to show their caliber on the road here against Syracuse. This team beat Syracuse 59-3 last year and its time for Syracuse to return the favor a bit. Note that FSU has Notre Dame on the docket next week as well so might not be as in tune on the defensive end. Plus, Syracuse is likely to be a solid active underdog here regardless of the fact their quarterback is out and a new one takes place here. Not much is expected of 'Cuse in this contest but we expect them to be a solid underdog and likely fall within the 24 points but more importantly, give FSU a decent game here surprisingly. Syracuse gave up 28 points to a Louisville team that is not stout on offense, then gave up 31 and 34 to Notre Dame and Maryland. Now they face a potent FSU offense, who is looking to play better on the road than the NC State game and likely to be an active underdog to boot as we have always felt when a star player goes out a game is likely to go over the posted total regardless of the sport (especially in Basketball). The Over is 4-0 for the Seminoles following a straight up win of 20 points and the Over is 7-1 for the Orange aftera ccumulating less than a 100 yards of rushing in their previous game, look for the Orange to have nothing to lose here and push FSU at home but FSU eventually winning, but more importantly, this contest has the likelihood of going to a 42-20 type of contest as this goes over today per our models.
3-Unit Play. #175. Take North Carolina +17 over Notre Dame (50-43) (Ez-Winner)
At some point UNC has to step up and play a decent and complete game. And the oddsmakers seem to agree placing them as a two touchdown and field goal underdog to Notre Dame here. If you take a close look at UNC you'll see they are a top 35 passing team and top 35 in points scored and can keep up with most teams in the country as per scoring. The issue with this squad is certainly their defense but it has gotten better each week to their credit though they are 2-3 but a win or at least a competent effort here will go a long way for this coaching staff. The Irish come off a huge win against Stanford keeping their playoff hopes alive here and needed a 4th and 11 touchdown to keep their National Championship hopes alive. Having said that, it would be hard to get up for this game after such an emotional win as they will get UNC's best shot here at home. It's just a classic let down spot here for Notre Dame and a step up opportunity for a UNC team that has underachieved this year. The Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS following a double-digit loss at home (losing to Va Tech as a 2.5 dog at home by more than two touchdowns) and the Irish are just 2-5 ATS when facing a team with a losing record at home meaning they have difficulty at times against large nets at home as UNC likely does very well today per our models.
8-Unit Selection. #952. Take Over 7 Runs Kansas City vs. Baltimore (Friday @ 8:05pm est) (8-6 Final) (Ez-Winner - Hit in 5th Inning - We Predicted 3 run differential and it was a 7 Run Differential!)
This is a relatively low line considering the features of this game as we actually had the contest closer to 9 and it would not surprise us at all if it reaches 10 runs here. Given that these two teams did not expect to be here and have nothing to lose and there is no true pitching ace that has been lights out of late, 7 runs is relatively low. Take for example Shields, he struggled against an A's team that is now known for their offensive firepower after the trade of Cespedes and still managed to go over in the elimination game in a total that flew over. The Orioles have one of the most potent offenses in Baseball and now gets to face a pitcher that has a 3.21era in two starts against them this year. But to Shields worry, he has beat the Orioles both times and now the Orioles seek revenge at home. Hardy, Jones, Lough and Markaikis all have had success against Shields for an over .250 batting average against him and note that the first time that Shields faced the O's he gave up 3 hits and 2 earned runs in 7 innings. The next time the O's he gave up 9 hits and 3 earned runs in 7 innnigs. His output in hits given up went up three times the second time the Orioles had a chance to face him which is typically the case as the hitters gain advantage as they face pitchers more and more. As he comes off one of his best starts of the year giving up 2 runs in 6 innings to the Angels, a bit of a let down spot here for Shields who has given up 12 runs in nearly 24 innings of work lately. Combine that with Tillman pitching a complete game shutout over the Royals the last time he faced them and you will have a hungry Royals team here looking for some revenge. Notice the line is eerily low at -125 or so and that indicates that the Royals are likely to be a solid underdog here despite the fact the public are taking the Orioles in a 2:1 fashion as expected with the small price at home. Escobar, Gordon and Moustakas all have batting averages of over .333 against Tillman and given that both these pitchers are in a bit of a let down spot, given the way the line is written, that Shields is 14-6-1 to the Over in his last 21 contests and the Over is 4-1 in Tillman's last 5 starts on 7 days rest, don't be surprised to see this contest likely go over the posted total this evening per our models.
3-Unit Play. #61. Take Under 5.5 Goals Florida vs. Tampa Bay (Thursday @ 7:35pm est) (3-2) (Winner)
We of course love to fade the public and its a hallmark of what we do in every sport that we do. This is why new Casinos keep getting built every year of course because the common Joe loses by taking square plays on a regular basis. Hence, when the Joe loses, the Casino wins. If you take a look at this contest, you will see Tampa Bay as a heavy favorite and the public like Tampa Bay to a tune of 75% or even better here. These two teams have a strong history and rivalry and normally they plaly the over. But, a couple different factors which likely makes for a copmetitive game similar to the Philadelphia vs. Boston game yesterday where Boston was a heavy favorite and the final score was 2-1. Luongo has a full training camp underneath his belt this year and knows the system much more than year's past prior to being traded. So expect the 2.46 GAA to go down. Bishop is back from injury in which he was hurt prior to the playoffs and had posted a 2.23 GAA and including 5 shutouts. We don't expect the Lightning to blowout Florida here but rather Florida to be a solid dog and give them all they can handle here in what should be a tight low scoring affair with plenty of energy. We look for a 3-1 or 3-2 contest here this evening per our models.
8-Unit Play. #458. Take New York Giants -4 over Atlanta (30-20) (Ez-Winner)
These teams dislike each other more than most people realize. For starters, Atlanta had lost to this team in the playoffs a few years ago and was drummed up in New York and ever since then bad blood was there between these two teams. Atlanta took out all of their frustrations when they beat this team in their most recent affair 34-0 in 2012. Now, the Giants who did not score a point in Atlanta at the Dome look for revenge here at home. Atlanta does come off a loss to Minnesota which is a bit worrisome but having said that, the Falcons have beat two teams outside the top 20 in power rankings including the Bucs and Saints. Combine that with the Giants having played a much tougher schedule losing to the likes of Detroit and Arizona, both competent teams and now beating two teams in Houston who is around the top 16 and Washington on the road in a big win, this is a nice spot for the Giants to get revenge from the 2012 loss. Atlanta is a good team, but a .500 team as that defense is porous as the Vikings showed. Look for Atlanta to stay close early but then the Giants to make adjustments as Coughlin is significantly a better coach than Mike Smith and we have the Giants winning this contest by likely double-digits here. The Giants will not get shutout like they did in 2012 and though the Falcons will be motivated, this will be a public loss as well as the public are on Atlanta catching the points. The Falcons are 3-7 ATS in their last 13 road games and the Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 5 - this is when Coughlin makes the adjustments after a slow start every year. We have this game by a double-digit differential per our models.
3-Unit Play. #54. Take Under 5.5 Goals Montreal vs. Edmonton (3-0, Ez-Winner)
Edmonton is on a roll right now and this team is coming together nicely. It's hardto overlook a team that is ranked 30th nearly dead last and all of a sudden has reeled off 3 straight wins and now have been ranked around 25th in most power rankings and to move 5 power ranking points is not easy after having several games under the belt so give Edmonton a great deal of credit for their work here. Note, that Edmonton has shored up their defense over their last few games including giving up 4 goals to two top 18 teams including Washington winning 3-2 and Tampa Bay winning 3-2 as well. And now this team faces the number 1 power ranking team in the league in Montreal at home as only a +125 dog and it speaks volumes to what the oddsmakers think of this team. Look for this to be a fantastic public fade, a strong defensive game and considering its a night game as well with limited number of games on the NHL Docket, look for this game to likely go under the posted total. Montreal has played to the Under when they face teams within the 20 and outside power ranking range and look for this contest to be similar to Edmonton's last two contests when they face teams within the mid portion to the top third portion of the league and it likely goes under the posted total as its a likely 3-2 final score.