The British Open starts on Thursday. That means we have to get ready to make some bets. After all, what good is a major if you don't have some money on it? The British Open is always an interesting tournament - for betting and also for pure entertainment. The history and tradition of the courses is rich and intriguing, but the courses are of an unfamiliar style, and they are often ridiculously difficult and, frankly, kind of ugly. It's definitely a tournament I watch more for the drama and the storylines than for the quality of the golf itself.
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If those are my complaints about the tournament then they are especially true at Carnoustie, this year's host course. The Open was last there in 1999 when Jean Van de Velde famously collapsed down the stretch, allowing Paul Lawrie to close from 10 strokes back to win in a playoff. The 1975 Open at Carnoustie must have been a classic to watch, with Tom Watson holding off hard charges by both Jack Nicklaus and Johnny Miller. It is widely viewed as the hardest links course in the world, and it will be set up with tight fairways and nasty rough. Lawrie won with a six-over score last time, and there is no reason to believe that the players will be significantly under that this time out. It's reportedly a fairer course this year, but even at it's kindest this is far from an easy layout.
So, will this year's British Open winner be one of the big two, one of the close contenders like Ernie or Vijay, or someone out of left field, as Zach Johnson and Angel Cabrera have been so far this year? Here's a quick look:
Tiger Woods (3/1) - Figuring out what the greatest living golfer will bring to the table is an interesting challenge. On one hand he is the two time defending champion of the tournament, and he's always deadly dangerous in a major. On the other hand, we have no idea what kind of form he's in. He was disappointing in the U.S. Open, but his daughter was born just two days after the tourney, so it is no wonder his mind didn't seem to be into it.
The only tournament he has played since is the AT&T National, and since he was hosting as well, it's unreasonable to expect he was at his best. To add an extra twist, Woods was very critical of the layout at Carnoustie last time they were there (it's not a wonder - his 294 is his highest 72-hole score ever, even though he finished seventh), and his lack of accuracy off the tee could be a disaster on the narrow, unforgiving course. That all adds up to the same problem usually presents for me - he doesn't provide any value at the price, but I am very hesitant to discount his chances of winning.
Phil Mickelson (14/1) - This is a pretty juicy price for Mickelson, but I still don't think I like it. Lefty seems to be as hungry as we have seen him in a long while, but the renewed determination just isn't leading to positive results. Since winning the Players Championship in May he has withdrawn once and missed the cut twice, including the U.S. Open, in three PGA appearances, and he collapsed down the stretch and then lost in a playoff last weekend at the Scottish Open. The biggest concern in the last outing was that his drives were all over the place. That could be disastrous at Carnoustie.
Mickelson knows all about disaster at the host course - he missed the cut by a stroke last time the Open was here. Mickelson certainly can win it, but there is probably better value for money elsewhere on the board.
Ernie Els (12/1) - The Big Easy isn't in top form, but he's always very comfortable at the British Open. He has won it once, and been in the top 10 on seven other occasions. He finished 24th at Carnoustie in 1999, but that whole season was a bit of a disaster - he missed the cut in the U.S. Open and the PGA Championship. Ernie could obviously win, but this price is much less than I would prefer to see.
Luke Donald (28/1), Paul Casey (40/1), Justin Rose (28/1) - Lawrie was the last European to win a major, so I lump these three guys together because they offer the same basic thing - good form, talent and comfort with the style of play that could end that unbelievably long streak of futility. Rose hasn't missed the top 10 in any start on the European Tour this year. He is accurate and strong out of the sand, and his biggest weakness, a lack of length, will not be an issue on this course. Casey has been in the top 10 in both majors this year, and seems poised for a breakthrough.
Niclas Fasth (40/1) - If you are looking for intriguing value for your money, look no further than Fasth. He has been red hot since just before his fourth place finish at the U.S. Open, with a win, a second and an eighth. Though he doesn't have a ton of major experience, he doesn't seem to be bothered by the pressure - he was second to David Duval in his first British Open, which was also his first major, in 2001.