Florida (9-3) vs. Michigan (8-4)

Conference matchup: SEC vs. Big Ten
Date: Jan. 1, 2008, 1 p.m.
Location: Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida
Spread: Florida -10

As a Michigan fan this game is pretty much my worst nightmare. The team is coming off a disappointing season with banged up stars and a coaching search which is quickly becoming as much of a mockery as the last year has been. Now they get to play Florida, which has an offense couldn't be a worse matchup for the Wolverines. In other words, it's hard to get excited about watching this game. These two teams met on the same day in 2003. Michigan was favored by 1.5 that day and they won by eight while dominating on the ground. It will be a different game this time around.

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Florida can cover if: they decide they want to. The Gators' potent offense, even if it does depend very heavily on Tim Tebow, should have a great day against Michigan if it is focused and on its game. Tebow is more of a danger to run than almost any quarterback in the country. The list of teams that have beaten the Wolverines in recent years with a dynamic offense headed by a mobile pivot is long - Texas, Ohio State, Oregon, Appalachian State. Florida can be as creative as any team, and Michigan has never dealt with that particularly well. If Florida sticks to their game, and is able to keep Michigan's defense guessing and uncomfortable, they will be fine. Defensively, Florida will have to focus on keeping Mike Hart under control. Florida is strong against the run, and they will have a huge edge if they can stop Hart from taking his team on his back like he has so many times over his career. One possible distraction for Florida is the distraction of the award season that will take up so much of Tim Tebow's time. We've seen quarterbacks recently - Matt Leinart, Troy Smith - who have struggled after picking up a wheelbarrow full of hardware. On the other hand, the Gators embarrassed the best of the Big Ten last year, and this Michigan team is a giant step below that level, so they should be fine.

Michigan can cover if: Hell freezes over. Okay, it isn't quite that bad, but Michigan has a lot to overcome to do well here. The team comes into a basically meaningless bowl game after a very frustrating season that wasn't nearly as successful as the team hoped. Both their quarterback and their running back have a long way to go before they are healthy. The time off should help them heal, but it remains to be seen how sound they are. It's very doubtful that the preparation time will be enough for the team to figure out how to do what they haven't been able to do for several seasons - stop a mobile quarterback. This game comes down entirely to the ability of this team to stop Tebow. That hasn't happened often this year. Michigan's woes are compounded by the fact that Lloyd Carr will be a lame duck in this game. It remains to be seen how effective he will be when he is on his way out, or how focused his coordinators will be as they try to figure out what their future holds. It comes down to this - Michigan can cover, and even win if they play the best game that they have played all year. It's up to you decide if that is likely.

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General notes: This is Michigan's fourth trip to this bowl, which was previously known as the Citrus Bowl before corporate sponsorship got out of hand. They won in 1999 and 2001, and lost in 2002. Florida is making their fifth appearance, with two wins and two losses. They most recently lost to Michigan State in 2000. Both teams have the propensity to slump. Florida lost three of their middle four games, while Michigan twice lost two in a row, including their last two.