Hendrick Motorsports looks to continue its dominance in all things NASCAR this weekend as Mark Martin won the pole and teammate Dale Earnhardt, Jr. will start on the outside of the front row when the “the Great American Race” starts the 2010 Sprint Cup season with the 52nd running of the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway at 1:30 p.m. on Sunday, Feb. 14.

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You might want to wait until Thursday before investing in the “Granddaddy” of the racing season as all other starting positions will be determined following the Gatorade Duel 150 qualifying races. Qualifying position is significant at Daytona when you consider 67 of 124 races, or 54 percent of all Daytona 500’s, have been won from the Top five with 23 of those wins coming from the pole-sitter and another 19 races have been won from the outside pole. A whopping 91 percent of Daytona winners come from the top 15 with the No. 10 slot winning a remarkable 10 races. As we do every year, lets provide some Daytona 500 picks and betting predictions.

Who will win the Daytona 500?

Matt Kenseth was the unlikely winner of last year’s rain-shortened Daytona 500. This was only the fourth time that the Daytona 500 was shortened due to rain. Kenseth had never before been in contention at Daytona and after a rain delay with 48-laps remaining in the race Kenseth was declared the winner by officials. 

Despite the vapid ending to last year’s race Daytona is characterized by spectacular wrecks and exciting finishes. The Daytona 500 is one of four restrictor plate races in the Sprint Cup. But this year NASCAR officials have made two changes which NASCAR hopes will liven up and could affect the outcome of the race. This is good news for fans as bump-drafting restrictions of recent years have been eliminated and the restrictor plate openings have been increased by 63/64 of an inch; the largest plate NASCAR has run since one-inch openings were used at the 1989 Daytona 500. Incidentally, the 1989 race was won on fuel mileage by Darrell Waltrip who earned his first Daytona 500 victory after 17 years of frustration. 

These two changes will put an onus on the driver to provide continuous feedback throughout the race and to think differently than they would on a road course or short track.  Restrictor plate strategy at the superspeedways depends on everything coming together at the right time (and good starting position) including position, drafting, teamwork and pit strategy, all of which HMS has in abundance.

Gamblers thinking about backing the “Old Man” should note that in the past two years Martin (14/1) has started from second and first, respectively, and last year despite his good start he finished the race 16th. Daytona is one of the four tracks the No. 5 driver is winless on and his best finish was second place in 2007.

Odds on favorite Kyle Busch, had four wins last year, and didn’t make the Chase and will look to overcome the disappointment of last year. In fact, Kyle even got engaged this year at Daytona and wouldn’t a win be a cherry on that sundae for Kyle? Busch finished 41st after an accident knocked him out of the race last year after leading for 88 laps. The reason I am not backing No. 18 is because since jettisoning Crew Chief Steve Addington after five years and four-wins last year, the No. 18 finished worse with Dave Rogers as the newly installed crew chief. Until they cement their relationship I am not advising a play on “Rowdy.”

Tony Stewart (8/1) and finished eighth last year after starting the race in the fifth position. Stewart has never won Daytona 500 but finished second in 2004 and won last years’ Coke Zero 400.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (9/1) was almost the fastest for two laps and will start from the second row for the Daytona 500. He had an awful season last year, winning no races with all the resources of HMS. Could this finally be Dale’s year? 2004 was the last time Junior won at Daytona and now it seems like he’s buying into the “team” philosophy that old man Hendrick is preaching.

Jeff Gordon (9/1) is the restrictor plate king, but with a bun in the oven and his daughter exactly two years old, not to mention a bad back, Gordon’s best years might have passed him by. He won Daytona in 2005 but he hasn’t finished better than 10th since then.

Jimmie Johnson (12/1) swept both races at Daytona in 2006 and would love to start off his fifth Championship Season with a win. However, he must do a lot better than the last three years at Daytona when he finished 31st, 39th and 27th.

Carl Edwards (16/1) had a tremendous season in 2008 when he won nine races and finished second behind Johnson in the Chase, but then he endured a disastrous season last year, winning nine times and finishing second behind Johnson in the total points category. This is his 10th start at Daytona though and he has an average finish of 21.9.

Finally NASCAR investors should know that Chevrolet was by far the fastest manufacturer as they produced four of the top five cars in the qualifiers so showing Chevy the love on Valentines Day is a smart move.  


Pick! Dale Earnhardt, Jr., No. 88, (9/1)

Daytona 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

When it comes to the first race of the year longshots have as a legitimate chance of winning as do the favorites. It’s hard to gauge how teams and drivers have adjusted in the off-season and to the new rules. For the second consecutive season Kevin Harvick begins the season 200K richer as he blasted by Greg Biffle to win the 76-lap Bud Shoot-Out exhibition last weekend. Harvick has fallen on hard times recently and hasn’t won a points race since the 2007 Daytona 500. Harvick started last year’s Daytona 32nd on the grid and finished second in the rain shortened race.  

Pick! Kevin Harvick, No. 29, (20/1)

Odds Driver to win Daytona 500*

KYLE BUSCH 8/1
TONY STEWART 8/1 
JEFF GORDON 9/1
DALE EARNHARDT JR. 9/1 
DENNY HAMLIN 9/1
JIMMIE JOHNSON 12/1 
KURT BUSCH 14/1
MARK MARTIN 14/1 
JUAN MONTOYA 16/1 
CARL EDWARDS 16/1 
KEVIN HARVICK 20/1 
MATT KENSETH 20/1 
JEFF BURTON 22/1 
BRIAN VICKERS 25/1 
RYAN NEWMAN 25/1 
CLINT BOWYER 30/1 
JAMIE MCMURRAY 30/1 
JOEY LOGANO 35/1 
DAVID RAGAN 35/1 
BRAD KESELOWSKI 35/1 
MARTIN TRUEX JR. 35/1 
KASEY KAHNE 35/1 
DAVID REUTIMANN 40/1 
GREG BIFFLE 40/1 
FIELD (ANY OTHER DRIVER) 15/1