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Daytona 500 Predictions - Daytona 500 Picks
by T.O. Whenham - 2/18/2011

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NASCAR driver Kurt Busch

When it comes to NASCAR, I’ll admit to being a fairweather fan -- I show up for the big events, but don’t pay total attention from week to week. There are a lot of people out there like me, and a lot of people who bet on the sport only on the biggest days. There is no day in the sport bigger than this Sunday, however, as this is the day of “The Great American Race,” the Daytona 500. This is the weekend when everyone who cares about the sport even a little bit is paying attention. Here’s a look at how the field sets up with some Daytona 500 predictions and picks (all odds are from BetUS):

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Kevin Harvick (+550) - Harvick is the picture of consistency in the sport -- he finished in the Top 10 26 times in 36 races last year. He hasn’t won the Daytona 500, but he does have a win on the track – at the Coke Zero 400 last year. He has also finished second and seventh the last two years in this big race.

I can’t argue too much about him being favored in this one, but I’ll be looking elsewhere. He’ll be a part of it for sure, but there isn’t the hunger around Harvick in my eyes that there is in others. I’ll talk about Richard Childress Racing again in a bit, but as much respect as I have for RCR right now I just don’t think Harvick is the way to go -- at least not at this price.

Tony Stewart (+800) - I just don’t get this price. Stewart is a big name and all, but I just don’t see how he justifies this price. He was lousy at Daytona last year -- 22nd and 25th in his two appearances. He also had a rough weekend last weekend in the Shootout -- he started fifth but dropped to 11th at the checkered flag.

He has three wins at the track, so he can’t be ruled out entirely -- he is Tony Stewart -- but in my eyes this is totally a case where the name and the price just don’t line up. If Stewart wins I won’t have a strong betting day at all.

Kurt Busch (+1500) - If I had to pick just one driver, it would be Busch. In fact, compared to Harvick I think that this price represents some very nice value. I’d much rather have him than younger brother Kyle, who is listed at +800 as well.

Kurt showed that he is ready for a fight when he won one of the two Duels on Thursday. His car is newly painted bright yellow and is, frankly, ugly. It’s also really fast, and Busch understands how to drive it.

He gets the tactics the track requires now that it has been repaved, and that means he is clearly extremely comfortable on it -- besides the Duel win he also won the Bud Shootout last weekend. He’s been the king of Speedweeks, and momentum matters at this pace for this race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+1200) - The story was setting up perfectly for Junior and his 88 car this year. This is the 10-year anniversary of his father’s death in this race, so the Earnhardt family is on everyone’s mind. It was as if Dale Sr. was looking down on his son on pole day as Junior earned the right to line up at the front of the pack. It seemed like destiny -- at least until he crashed his car on Wednesday in practice and has to start in a new car at the back of the field.

Earnhardt hasn’t exactly been the best driver in the world the last few years anyway, so I just don’t see how he is going to climb from back to front in this one.

 I wouldn’t dream of betting on him, but many others don’t seem to agree -- his price has dropped from +1500 to +1200 in the last week despite the demotion.

Clint Bowyer (+1200) and Jeff Burton (+2500) - I put these two together because the teammates showed just how well they work together en route to a win for Burton and a close second for Bowyer in the second Duel on Thursday.

Though racing is an individual sport, Daytona calls on guys to work together to get where they need to be and stay there. Richard Childress Racing has brilliant equipment right now, so these guys will be sitting on rockets on race day, and they will be fearless and determined to work together again.

I like others -- especially Busch -- more, but they certainly aren’t a bad exacta possibility. Childress has guaranteed that Jimmie Johnson is going down this year, and that his team will be the ones doing it. Therefore, they will be hungry to set the tone early, and there is no better way to start that than winning the biggest race there is.

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