The deadline for college football underclassmen to declare for the NFL Draft came and went on Sunday, so now we know exactly who is and who isn’t returning to campus next season – barring, of course, injury or academic problems.
A few of the books put out early 2012 Heisman Trophy odds, and the one thing they seem to agree on is that Southern Cal quarterback Matt Barkley is the favorite (7/2 on Bovada, for example). Barkley surprised many by choosing to return to Troy because he ended last season playing the best football of his career. He was a lock Top-10 pick in the 2012 draft had he come out.
Get your $100 freebet at Bovada
(the new Bodog)
CLICK HERE
The 6-foot-2, 220-pound Barkley threw for 3,528 yards, 39 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 2011, leading the Trojans to a 10-2 record and a No. 5 overall finish in The Associated Press Top 25. He just missed being a Heisman finalist this year, finishing sixth, despite the fact that pretty much all of Barkley’s numbers were better than when Matt Leinart won the Heisman as a Southern Cal junior in 2004 – and then surprised many by returning to school for his senior season.
Barkley appears to have everything in his favor: a prestigious, national-powerhouse program that’s always on national TV; a loaded offense that includes star receivers Robert Woods and Marqise Lee; and the chance to play for a national title. USC will be in every preseason Top 3 in the polls and is eligible for postseason play after two years on the sidelines – playing for a possible title was a big reason Barkley did return.
Southern Cal got a nice boost as well with fellow Pac-12 power Oregon losing both QB Darron Thomas (a huge surprise) and RB LaMichael James to the NFL. That conference should be USC’s to win (Trojans also host Ducks).
Big Ten stars are co-Nos. 2
The Bovada second-favorites at 5/1 are Wisconsin RB Montee Ball and Michigan QB Denard Robinson. I’m stunned Ball returned to Madison for his senior season after earning consensus all-America honors and tying Barry Sanders' NCAA record for single-season touchdowns with 39. Ball led the nation with 1,923 rush yards, the seventh-highest total in Big Ten history – he was named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year and was a Heisman finalist. Ball won’t have the luxury of star QB Russell Wilson to take some pressure off next season, however. And there’s no way he can match his 2011 numbers.
Robinson, meanwhile, doesn’t really project as an NFL quarterback so there was no chance he would leave school after his junior year, although he briefly looked into it. He is poised to set nearly every Big Ten and national rushing record for a quarterback. “Shoelace” completed 142 of 258 passes for 2,173 yards, 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions last season. He also rushed for 1,176 yards and 16 touchdowns. Robinson led UM to an 11-2 record and Sugar Bowl win over Virginia Tech.
As far as my 2012 Heisman Trophy predictions go, my concerns with Robinson is that I think Michigan takes a bit of a step back next season and that Robinson is a huge injury risk simply because he runs so much – thus taking more hits than any other quarterback. The Wolverines also look like at least a three-loss team next year. The opener vs. Alabama in Texas, at Notre Dame, at Nebraska at Ohio State all will be very tough, not to mention their game at home vs. a rising Michigan State team.
Oklahoma QB Landry Jones is next at 13/2, but he seemed to regress in the second half of last season. That was a good thing for the Sooners as his draft stock slipped and thus he decided to return to school. But Jones might lose some snaps next year after backup Blake Bell's Belldozer package proved to be the Sooners' only effective means of scoring down the stretch once star WR Ryan Broyles was lost for the year (and he’s gone now, too).
Best long shots work a look
The two guys I really like in terms of value are Oregon running back De’Anthony Thomas at 25/1 and Georgia QB Aaron Murray at 35/1.
Thomas’ 2012 campaign got a jumpstart in the Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin as the electric freshman had just two carries but turned them into touchdown runs of 91 (a Rose Bowl record) and 64 yards. Scarily, he’s faster and probably a bigger-play threat than the departing James. Plus, the Ducks may have to rely a bit more on Thomas (and to a lesser extent Kenjon Barner) with backup QB Bryan Bennett taking over for the departed Darron Thomas. But you know the Ducks are going to be more explosive than anyone on offense.
Murray was the SEC’s best quarterback this season and easily surpassed the school record with 35 TD passes, although he did struggle big-time in the SEC title game loss to LSU and had two more picks in the Outback Bowl loss to Michigan State. And the loss of star tight end Orson Charles will hurt a little.
But the Dawgs are among the national title favorites for next season and their schedule sets up nicely, with no regular-season games vs. Alabama or LSU and the toughest matchup likely coming at South Carolina. Georgia could run the table in the regular season. I also think WR Malcolm Mitchell will be a breakout star in his sophomore season and thus give Murray the big-play threat he needs to win a Heisman.
This year also will mark the 30th anniversary of the last time a Dawg won a Heisman: some guy named Herschel Walker. And Georgia’s only other Heisman came in 1942 (Frank Sinkwich). So that it’s 2012 seems to have a little karma to it for Murray.