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Who is going to win the Kentucky Derby? That's a million dollar question at this time of year. Some years I have a pretty good answer to that question, and occasionally it's even the right answer. The last three years have been particularly simple - I was emotionally and financially attached to Barbaro, Curlin and Big Brown by March. The depth and talent of the field this year, though, has made it much harder for me to come up with a clear answer. Making Kentucky Derby predictions this year, then, has come down more than usual for me to looking for value in the morning line odds and acting accordingly.

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I also make my predictions this year with a bit of trepidation. This is the second time that I will be attending the Derby in person. The first time was in 1996 when Grindstone won. Through straight bets and exotics I had 14 different horses in the field covered. Grindstone was not one of them. That hurt, and I live in constant fear of seeing that happen again this time around. With that in mind, here's how I break down my Kentucky Derby predictions:

The favorite is currently I Want Revenge, and that likely won't change. He has had two very impressive races in New York, and I really want to believe that he is a star. At the price he is likely to go off at - in the neighborhood of 3/1 - I just can't back him, though. He wasn't nearly as impressive in California as he was in New York, and the New York class wasn't exactly dominant this year. The horse will also be ridden by Joe Talamo, a 19-year-old jockey making his Derby debut. Talamo is talented, but I have troubling believing he will be at his best on this stage. I Want Revenge could be special, but at this price he is very easy to discard in my mind. He'll factor into exotics, but he's not a winner in my book.

Friesan Fire is another horse I am willing to toss out. He's ridiculously talented, and was very impressive last time out. He hasn't run in seven weeks, though, and I refuse to believe that a horse can get ready for this kind of race off of that much rest. It hasn't happened before, and I am not willing to bet at 5/1 odds that it will happen now.

In between I Want Revenge and Friesan Fire on the morning line lay two horses I quite like - Dunkirk and Pioneerof The Nile at 4/1. Dunkirk's lack of experience is an issue - he has just three career starts, and he didn't win last time out. He has the most eye-popping talent in this field, and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him win, but at this price I have to reluctantly pass.

Pioneerof The Nile has issues as well - mostly that he has never run on dirt. That's a big problem in my eyes - no horse that has run exclusively on synthetics has yet looked particularly good in the Derby. There are a few reasons I am not as concerned about this as I would normally be, though. Bob Baffert is a Derby training savant, and he has the definite air of confidence around him this year. Garrett Gomez is the best jockey in the country right now, and he not only will be riding the horse but he chose him over Dunkirk. The horse has also shown a lot of class in his last two wins. Both races have featured strange and awkward pace scenarios, yet the horse has fought through them to come out on top. That determination and unflappable nature should serve him well on Saturday. Of the elite contenders, Pioneerof The Nile is the one I most trust and support.

After reading this horse racing piece head over to our Preakness Stakes picks page. Our Preakness betting odds page is also must read when studding horse racing. If you plan on betting horse racing you'll also want to read our Trifecta Wagering page. For more horse racing articles and free picks visit our homepage and view the "Doc's Daily Medicine" section.

Now for a few longer prices. First and foremost, I can't believe that Musket Man is at 20/1. He's has looked very good in his races this year - all wins. He's clearly improved each time out. He's trained well coming into the race, and he is looking physically imposing and impressive. I was expecting to see him at about 14/1, and even that would have seemed more than fair. If he stays near or above his 20/1 morning line price then he'll have to factor in all over the betting spectrum. Another 20/1 horse that presents real value at that price is Papa Clem. He's the Arkansas Derby winner - a distinction shared by some impressive horses in the last decade. He's beaten I Want Revenge, and he's as seasoned against top competition as any horse in the field. If he stays at or near his price he'd be a steal.

So, there it is. If I were to pick one winner it would be Pioneerof The Nile. He'll be joined in the exacta by Musket Man, Papa Clem, and perhaps Dunkirk. For the deeper exotics I would also throw in I Want Revenge, Hold Me Back, and Chocolate Candy.