2018 Kentucky Derby Expert Predictions and Betting Advice
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Below you will find updated information regarding the 2018 Kentucky Derby. On this page we will be posting updated articles, picks, odds and information all pertaining to the 2018 Kentucky Derby. Bookmark this page and check back often for updates.
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Kentucky Derby Post Positions: Expert Analysis and Historical Data
by Robert Ferringo - 5/5/2017
The 143th running of the Kentucky Derby commences at 6:24 p.m. on Saturday, May 6 at Churchill Downs. The Run For The Roses marks the open of the Triple Crown racing season and is one of the most highly-anticipated sporting events of the spring. The post draw took place on Wednesday afternoon without the usual fanfare. Kentucky Derby organizers have, in the past, tried to "liven up" the post draw with gimmicks such as allowing owners to pick their own post or having the draw in primetime. But this year's draw was a quiet affair that took all of five minutes this morning. Read More >>
2017 Kentucky Derby Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/5/2017
After countless hours thinking about the Kentucky Derby, and tens of thousands of words written about it, the best two minutes in sports is now just a short time away. And it promises to be a very tough race. There are a few horses that have no chance - Fast and Accurate is a bad joke, and I have no love for Untrapped or Patch (though my dislike of Patch does not mean I am discriminating against him because he only has one eye - I'm not a monster). Read More >>
2017 Kentucky Oaks Picks with Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/4/2017
The Kentucky Derby is the king of all races for the history, the glamour, and the thrilling challenge of handicapping it every year. From a pure race consistency and quality level, though, Friday's Kentucky Oaks often outshines Saturday's big event. The Oaks is the highlight of Friday's card and the second-biggest race of the weekend at Churchill Downs. It is the equivalent of the Derby in that only three year olds can run, but it is exclusively for fillies - female horses - while the Derby is open to fillies but run almost exclusively by males. Read More >>
Expert Kentucky Derby Handicapping and Predictions for 2017: Pace Scenarios
by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017
The pace makes the race. Like most good clichés it's a cliché because it's true. A horse can be by far the most talented in the race, but if he doesn't dictate the pace, and that pace sets up in a way that works against him, then he can be beaten. On the flipside, If a relatively average horse gets a perfect trip he can win a race when he is nowhere close to the best in the field. That's how Giacomo won. And Super Saver. And I'll Have Another. Mine That Bird, Sea Hero, Lil E. Tee - the list isn't a short one. So, for handicappers, understanding potential Kentucky Derby pace scenarios and how they would impact different horses is key to picking a winner. And that's what we're here for today: Read More >>
2017 Kentucky Derby Wagering Advice and Tips: Handicapping the Jockeys
by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017
The littlest men often play the biggest role in the Kentucky Derby. Jockeys have to be just insane to do what they do on any random Wednesday. On a Derby day, though, with too many young horses fired up by a massive, drunken, screaming crowd, they are truly taking their lives in their own hands. If they win they will become immortal in the annals of the sport. But that just happens for one guy each year, and a large number of the other 19 will be blamed for their horse losing. It's a very tough way to make a living. Read More >>
2017 Kentucky Derby Betting Advice and Handicapping: Live Long Shots
by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017
There is no doubt that long shots can win the Kentucky Derby. Giacomo and Mine That Bird are clear proof of that. And this could be a good year to look for long shots to bet. The field is wide-open, and all of the top contenders have faults that make them vulnerable. Any one of 15 or 16 horses could win this field, so finding horses you like at a big price is a good way to spend your time in this race. Of course, these longer shots have even more flaws than the favorites in most cases, but they make up for it with price - or at least that's what you hope. Read More >>
Kentucky Derby Pedigrees: Handicapping and Betting Based on Bloodlines
by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017
I'm a big geek when it comes to thoroughbred pedigrees, and it doesn't get any better than at Kentucky Derby time, when the best of the best bloodlines are on display. I love perusing the pedigrees because it is a portrait of the history of this great sport. More importantly, though, spending the time to get to know the pedigrees can let you know which horses have plenty of stamina in their blood and which ones could be challenged by the grueling mile and a quarter of the Derby. Read More >>
Kentucky Derby Expert Handicapping: Trainer Todd Pletcher in the Run for the Roses
by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017
I have a tradition every year - one of many - that happens in the first week of May. Each year I write an article about the mess that is Todd Pletcher's history in the Kentucky Derby. It's the lowest of low-hanging fruit, but bettors need to hear it. If they are attracted to the otherwise stellar record of Pletcher then they can find themselves betting a price that doesn't accurately reflect Pletcher's massive struggles here. And no, it's not that I hate Pletcher. Actually, I have endless respect for him. It's just incredibly frustrating to see him do the same things every year in this race, getting the same dismal results, and not learning from it. I demand a lot from him because I know that he is more capable than almost any trainer alive. Read More >>
Lookin at Lee Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017
Part of me was waiting for Lookin at Lee to gain a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, and part of me was dreading it. He did not have enough points to get in on his own, but with Saturday's scratches of Malagacy and Battalion Runner by Todd Pletcher he found his way in. I've liked this horse for a long time now, and I have lost money consistently betting on him. There is a lot to like, but he has yet to be quite good enough, and he'll have to have the best day of his life next Saturday if he wants to finally prove himself. Read More >>
Sonneteer Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017
A maiden is a horse that has never won a race. Most horses good enough to be in the Derby get their first win knocked off early in their career. In fact, it's exceptionally rare for a horse to make it all the way to the Derby without a win. Only three maidens have won the race, and none are exactly recent - Buchanan in 1884, Sir Barton, who went on to win the Triple Crown, in 1919, and Brokers Tip in 1933. Since then just 10 horses have even tried - most recently Trojan Nation last year, who was a dismal 16th. Only four of those 10 maidens have been since 1979. It just doesn't happen very often. Read More >>
2017 Kentucky Derby Trainers: Handicapping and Analysis
by Trevor Whenham - 4/28/2017
It's both a typical and very abnormal year when it comes to Kentucky Derby trainers. Todd Pletcher has a big group of horses entered as he always does, but Bob Baffert has none. The latter will take some getting used to, and it means that this race - or at least the week leading up to it - just won't be as interesting as it could be. There are plenty of other trainers here, though, and plenty of talent among them. Let's take a look at the most interesting and compelling storylines: Read More >>
Kentucky Derby Trivia Questions and Answers 2017
by Trevor Whenham - 4/28/2017
One of my favorite things of this time of year is writing these Kentucky Derby trivia questions and answers. I ramble, explore all sorts of interesting things, and ask questions that only other Derby geeks could come up with - or even care about. I went easy on you and only came up with eight instead of the 10 I have done in past years. If you get half of these right then you know your stuff: Read More >>
2017 Kentucky Derby Betting Tips and Expert Wagering Advice
by Trevor Whenham - 4/27/2017
As I see it, the first Saturday in May is the reason betting was invented. There is nothing I like to bet on more than the Kentucky Derby. That means I'm not very smart, because it is also one of the toughest things to bet on most years. Horses have to run further than they have ever run before and further than many of them are really bred to run. Read More >>
2017 Kentucky Derby Betting Trends and Handicapping
by Trevor Whenham - 4/27/2017
You can never get bored handicapping the Kentucky Derby, because every year is completely different. Getting down to 20 horses that enter the gates means that we watch hundreds of horses through the winter and spring. Some years we see horses dominate. Other years, like this year, horses take turns winning key races. In 2015, for example, I knew for months that only two horses mattered, and the only challenge was ordering Dortmund and American Pharoah. Read More >>
Untrapped Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/27/2017
Untrapped had to wait to get his spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. In fact, as I write this he isn't technically even in, but two horses above him are poised to scratch and he needs only one to make way for him. While he will take the spot if it is offered, and you can't blame any owner or trainer who gives the race a shot, this is one of those horses who seems like he would be more appropriately aimed for a different spot than this one. Read More >>
Horses that can win the Kentucky Derby in 2017
by Trevor Whenham - 4/26/2017
About 10 days before the Kentucky Derby every year I write this same article about horses that can win the Kentucky Derby. Never has it been tougher to write, because never have I felt like I knew less. There are 20 horses that are likely to enter the Kentucky Derby. And about 18 that you could make a pretty solid case for. This race is almost comically wide open this year. Read More >>
Will there be a Triple Crown Winner in 2017? Expert Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/26/2017
I can still close my eyes and watch American Pharoah storm down the stretch at Belmont to break a long string of heartbreak and claim his place in immortality. It was one of the great days of my life. It also spoiled us. Casual racing fans are again able to forget just how incredibly tough winning the Triple Crown is. It's absolutely brutal, and it's take an extremely special horse to do it. When you look back at past winners you realize that they didn't become greats by winning it - they won it because they were great. So, I will bravely face the same question I get every year - will there be a Triple Crown winner in 2017? The short answer is simply "no". Here are four good reasons why: Read More >>
Kentucky Derby Expert Handicapping: Experience Factors in 2017
by Trevor Whenham - 4/26/2017
When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, experience factors right up near the top of the list of things I consider when deciding to back a horse or not. It's right alongside breeding and the connections - with actual performance a step behind. Horses really struggle to overcome less-than-ideal amounts of experience when it comes to this race. There are two main Kentucky Derby experience factors that we have to focus on in particular: Read More >>
Patch Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/19/2017
The Curse of Apollo is going to be discussed a lot when it comes to this horse leading into the Kentucky Derby, so we might as well discuss that first. In 1882 Apollo became the eighth winner of the Kentucky Derby. He had not run as a two year old - all thoroughbreds have a Jan. 1 birthday regardless of when they were actually born. In the 134 years since, no horse has repeated the feat - every other winner of the Derby ran at least once at two. Patch ran for the first time on Jan. 15. That's not good. Read More >>
Malagacy Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2017
I really hope that this preview is a wasted effort on my part. As it stands now all indications are that this horse is heading to the Kentucky Derby. On one hand, I get it - it's really, really tough to get into this race, so if a horse earns the points to get in then it's really tempting to take a shot. It's not like you can hold off and try again later. Some horses just don't have much of a chance, though, and this is definitely one of them. There are definitely things to like about him, but like too many of the Todd Pletcher horses this year he's raw, unpolished and just not ready for this challenge at this time. If I was making the decisions he would be saved for a much better spot than the Derby instead of risking so much in a race that just doesn't suit him. Read More >>
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