Kentucky Derby Picks, Tips, Expert Betting Predictions
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Classic Empire Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2017
What a strange trip to the Kentucky Derby this has been for Classic Empire. He was the dominant and impressive two-year-old champion, and unlike some horses that earn that honor he had the look of a true Kentucky Derby contender. It seemed like he was in cruise control. But then things got rocky. A terrible race. Injuries. Bad behavior. Spotty training. He went from incredible to very easy to doubt. In a salvation tale worthy of Disney, though, he finally returned to the track for the Arkansas Derby, and he did everything one could have hoped.
Battalion Runner Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2017
I feel a bit like a broken record as I write the previews for each potential Kentucky Derby horse. This is an obviously talented and well-bred colt from the Todd Pletcher barn that doesn't have enough depth of experience to make him easy to trust. Just like Patch. And Malagacy. Unlike those two, though, at least this colt doesn't have to worry about the curse of Apollo - no colt since Apollo in 1882 has won the Derby without running as a two year old, but this colt ran twice at two.
2017 Arkansas Derby Picks with Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/12/2017
The last major Kentucky Derby prep race of the 2017 season is upon us. This race has always been my favorite of the Derby preps, and since 2004 it has been on a very productive run. That year Smarty Jones won the race and then nearly won the Triple Crown. The 2005 winner, Afleet Alex, should have won the Triple Crown - he somehow finished a short length behind the underwhelming Giacomo in the Derby, won the Preakness, and then just crushed the field in the Belmont.
Thunder Snow Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/11/2017
The UAE Derby has, for the last several years, offered enough Kentucky Derby points that the winner can run in the Kentucky Derby. After Regal Ransom became the first in 2009 to make the trip, four of the last five winners have made the trip - Daddy Long Legs, Lines of Battle, Mubtaahij and Lani. None of those five horses has been a particular threat in the Derby. Sooner or later, though, a horse based in Dubai is going to do some damage in the Derby. It's one of the world's great races, and one of the huge-money owners over there will want roses for their mantle.
Tapwrit Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/11/2017
Tapwrit is the Zack Greinke of this three-year-old class. When Greinke has his head on right and is into his game he's a freakish talent - the match of any pitcher on the mound. With all of his demons, though, you can never trust that he'll be present when needed, and as a result the guy has wasted a stunning amount of talent over the years. He'll frustrate you endlessly, but you can't give up on him because you know what he can do when he is in his zone.
J Boys Echo Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/11/2017
One of the very tough parts of handicapping the Kentucky Derby is that so often you have to make judgment calls about horses. J Boys Echo is a perfect example. He has run one really good race. Strong. And three other graded stakes that were less impressive. So, do you assume that the one race was him at his full potential and that he can replicate that in the Derby? Or do you just figure that he caught lightning in a bottle that one day and the other performances are closer to what we can expect.
Irish War Cry Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017
Irish War Cry has only three career graded stakes race starts, yet in that short time he has sent those, like me, who like him on a real rollercoaster ride. He convincingly beat a strong cast in the Holy Bull and it seemed like he was among the very best in the country. Then he was a disastrous seventh in a no-show performance in the Fountain of Youth and you had to wonder if he was really capable of performing at the highest levels after all. Then he came out and won the Wood Memorial with a very professional effort, and again it's fairly easy to believe in him.
Girvin Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017
If everything goes according to plan then Girvin will become the first Louisiana Derby winner since Grindstone in 1996 to win the Kentucky Derby. There have been some good horses since that have fallen short - Peace Rules was third in 2006, and Pants on Fire, Pyro and Circular Quay were all nice horses who didn't have their best day in Louisville. Is Girvin, the colt who has won three of four career starts, including the two biggest Derby prep races at Fair Grounds, the horse to restore the reputation of the race that brought us the great Preakness and Belmont winner Risen Star, among others?
McCraken Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017
I never entirely believe in giving a horse a mulligan for an underwhelming race, but with McCraken I come as close as I ever come. After his wins in the Kentucky Jockey Club in November and the Sam F. Davis in February I was comfortable with the argument that this colt was as good as any in the country this year. But then a minor injury leading into the Tampa Bay Derby caused him to miss that race, and suddenly he was forced to come into the Blue Grass Stakes off a two-month layoff. Long breaks like that are never really ideal, but especially not for a young, inexperienced horse just looking to learn the game and develop a base of race fitness.
Gormley Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017
I've hated a lot of things about this frustratingly dismal Kentucky Derby prep season, so when I say that I hated the Santa Anita Derby most of all, it really means something. It was just a total dog of a race - slow, ugly, and impossible to draw meaning from. It would be disappointing for any meaningful major Derby prep to be that lousy, never mind one that has produced five Triple Crown race wins in the last five years - two each from I'll Have Another and California Chrome, and one from Exaggerator.
Practical Joke Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017
It's easy to forget when looking at Kentucky Derby contenders just how young these horses are. Though they all have an official birthday on Jan. 1, many don't turn three until much later. Practical Joke, for example, was born on April 15. A three year old still isn't fully mature, either. In human terms, it's like we start paying attention to these horses when they are just grade schoolers, and the Derby comes up before they are even in college.
Irap Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017
Strange things happen with horses that finish fourth in the Sunland Derby. Keep in mind, of course, that the Sunland Derby is about as far outside of the mainstream as you can get with a Kentucky Derby prep. The elite horses don't go there in the first place, so finishing fourth in that race isn't exactly a crowning accomplishment. Yet in 2009 Mine That Bird was a dismal fourth in that race, and he came back to win the Kentucky Derby in truly shocking fashion.
Battle of Midway Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017
Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is a legend, but the last four year he has been snakebit when it comes to the Triple Crown. He has arguably had the best three year old in training in three of the last four years, and he hasn't managed to get one to Kentucky on the first weekend in May yet. In 2014 the previous year's two year old champion Shared Belief was injured on the way to Derby and missed the Triple Crown entirely.
2017 Wood Memorial Picks with Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/6/2017
The Wood Memorial used to be one of the great races in the country. Four Triple Crown winners won this race en route to the Kentucky Derby -- Gallant Fox, Count Fleet, Assault, and Seattle Slew. Almost countless other Triple Crown race winners and horses that went on to be legendary sires have won it as well. In recent years, though, the race just hasn't been the same.
State of Honor Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/6/2017
State of Honor will never be mistaken for the best horse in this Kentucky Derby field, but he's the kind of horse you can't help but respect. He has just one win in 10 career starts, but since breaking his maiden in his fifth race he has run only in stakes races, and he has finished second four times and third once. He hasn't proven to be quite good enough, but he always finds a way to be a part of things. He's a warrior.
Gunnevera Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/6/2017
Every year we face the same challenges when it comes to handicapping the Kentucky Derby. In this case, we need to know how to deal with a massively talented and most impressive colt coming off a very much sub-optimal performance. Were we too optimistic about his real chances heading into the last race, or was that just a bad day that doesn't reflect what he really is?
2017 Santa Anita Derby Picks with Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/5/2017
In recent years the Santa Anita Derby has been a hugely-important step on the Triple Crown trail. I'll Have Another won this race and both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness in 2012. California Chrome pulled off the same triple two years later. Dortmund won this race in 2015, and though he finished third in the Derby he was good enough to win it any year that the freakish American Pharoah wasn't entered. Last year Exaggerator won both the Santa Anita Derby and the Preakness. It's a real reversal for this race, which was mostly irrelevant for the period that it was run on a synthetic track.
Always Dreaming Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/5/2017
Todd Pletcher is likely heading to the Kentucky Derby with a big group of runners again, and Always Dreaming may be the best of the group. He doesn't have a whole lot of experience to draw from, and he has only one stakes win, but the three races the horse has run in 2017 have been wildly impressive. So, will this horse succeed where so many prior Pletcher horses have failed? The one thing we know for sure is that in this mostly underwhelming group of horses this year there are certainly a lot of horses less likely to win the Derby than this one.
Fast and Accurate Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/5/2017
It's not exactly accurate to say that Fast and Accurate is fast. Or inspiring. Or particularly deserving of a spot in the Kentucky Derby. Yet here he is. He has the points to get in and an owner who is rich enough and crazy enough to pay the $200,000 late nomination fee because the horse was not even Triple Crown nominated heading into his Kentucky Derby prep race.
Hence Odds to Win the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/5/2017
If I owned a horse that earned enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby, I'd be there no matter how slow the horse was, how small his chances were, and how questionable the way I earned those points. I mean, think about it - owners get great seats, invitations to all the parties, barn passes, and so much more. It's like the ultimate VIP experience. That, I assume, is the thinking behind sending Hence to the Kentucky Derby.
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