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Kentucky Derby Picks, Tips, Expert Betting Predictions


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Kentucky Derby Winner Mine That Bird.


by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017

There is no doubt that long shots can win the Kentucky Derby. Giacomo and Mine That Bird are clear proof of that. And this could be a good year to look for long shots to bet. The field is wide-open, and all of the top contenders have faults that make them vulnerable. Any one of 15 or 16 horses could win this field, so finding horses you like at a big price is a good way to spend your time in this race. Of course, these longer shots have even more flaws than the favorites in most cases, but they make up for it with price - or at least that's what you hope.

Garrett Gomez riding Lookin At Lucky


by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017

I'm a big geek when it comes to thoroughbred pedigrees, and it doesn't get any better than at Kentucky Derby time, when the best of the best bloodlines are on display. I love perusing the pedigrees because it is a portrait of the history of this great sport. More importantly, though, spending the time to get to know the pedigrees can let you know which horses have plenty of stamina in their blood and which ones could be challenged by the grueling mile and a quarter of the Derby.

Trainer Todd Pletcher


by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017

I have a tradition every year - one of many - that happens in the first week of May. Each year I write an article about the mess that is Todd Pletcher's history in the Kentucky Derby. It's the lowest of low-hanging fruit, but bettors need to hear it. If they are attracted to the otherwise stellar record of Pletcher then they can find themselves betting a price that doesn't accurately reflect Pletcher's massive struggles here. And no, it's not that I hate Pletcher. Actually, I have endless respect for him. It's just incredibly frustrating to see him do the same things every year in this race, getting the same dismal results, and not learning from it. I demand a lot from him because I know that he is more capable than almost any trainer alive.

Kentucky Derby contender Eskendereya


by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017

Part of me was waiting for Lookin at Lee to gain a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, and part of me was dreading it. He did not have enough points to get in on his own, but with Saturday's scratches of Malagacy and Battalion Runner by Todd Pletcher he found his way in. I've liked this horse for a long time now, and I have lost money consistently betting on him. There is a lot to like, but he has yet to be quite good enough, and he'll have to have the best day of his life next Saturday if he wants to finally prove himself.

Kentucky Derby winner Orb


by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017

A maiden is a horse that has never won a race. Most horses good enough to be in the Derby get their first win knocked off early in their career. In fact, it's exceptionally rare for a horse to make it all the way to the Derby without a win. Only three maidens have won the race, and none are exactly recent - Buchanan in 1884, Sir Barton, who went on to win the Triple Crown, in 1919, and Brokers Tip in 1933. Since then just 10 horses have even tried - most recently Trojan Nation last year, who was a dismal 16th. Only four of those 10 maidens have been since 1979. It just doesn't happen very often.

Trainer Todd Pletcher


by Trevor Whenham - 4/28/2017

It's both a typical and very abnormal year when it comes to Kentucky Derby trainers. Todd Pletcher has a big group of horses entered as he always does, but Bob Baffert has none. The latter will take some getting used to, and it means that this race - or at least the week leading up to it - just won't be as interesting as it could be. There are plenty of other trainers here, though, and plenty of talent among them. Let's take a look at the most interesting and compelling storylines:

Mike Smith gets the chance to ride Mine That Bird in the Preakness.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/28/2017

One of my favorite things of this time of year is writing these Kentucky Derby trivia questions and answers. I ramble, explore all sorts of interesting things, and ask questions that only other Derby geeks could come up with - or even care about. I went easy on you and only came up with eight instead of the 10 I have done in past years. If you get half of these right then you know your stuff:

Some horses have a better chance than others to win the Kentucky Derby on May 2


by Trevor Whenham - 4/27/2017

As I see it, the first Saturday in May is the reason betting was invented. There is nothing I like to bet on more than the Kentucky Derby. That means I'm not very smart, because it is also one of the toughest things to bet on most years. Horses have to run further than they have ever run before and further than many of them are really bred to run.

Midshipman with jockey Garrett Gomez


by Trevor Whenham - 4/27/2017

You can never get bored handicapping the Kentucky Derby, because every year is completely different. Getting down to 20 horses that enter the gates means that we watch hundreds of horses through the winter and spring. Some years we see horses dominate. Other years, like this year, horses take turns winning key races. In 2015, for example, I knew for months that only two horses mattered, and the only challenge was ordering Dortmund and American Pharoah.

Breeders' Cup Blind Luck


by Trevor Whenham - 4/27/2017

Untrapped had to wait to get his spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. In fact, as I write this he isn't technically even in, but two horses above him are poised to scratch and he needs only one to make way for him. While he will take the spot if it is offered, and you can't blame any owner or trainer who gives the race a shot, this is one of those horses who seems like he would be more appropriately aimed for a different spot than this one.

2013 Kentucky Derby


by Trevor Whenham - 4/26/2017

About 10 days before the Kentucky Derby every year I write this same article about horses that can win the Kentucky Derby. Never has it been tougher to write, because never have I felt like I knew less. There are 20 horses that are likely to enter the Kentucky Derby. And about 18 that you could make a pretty solid case for. This race is almost comically wide open this year.

American Pharoah, racehorse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/26/2017

I can still close my eyes and watch American Pharoah storm down the stretch at Belmont to break a long string of heartbreak and claim his place in immortality. It was one of the great days of my life. It also spoiled us. Casual racing fans are again able to forget just how incredibly tough winning the Triple Crown is. It's absolutely brutal, and it's take an extremely special horse to do it. When you look back at past winners you realize that they didn't become greats by winning it - they won it because they were great. So, I will bravely face the same question I get every year - will there be a Triple Crown winner in 2017? The short answer is simply "no". Here are four good reasons why:

Rachel Alexandra is one of only three fillys to race in the Preakness Stakes in modern times.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/26/2017

When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, experience factors right up near the top of the list of things I consider when deciding to back a horse or not. It's right alongside breeding and the connections - with actual performance a step behind. Horses really struggle to overcome less-than-ideal amounts of experience when it comes to this race. There are two main Kentucky Derby experience factors that we have to focus on in particular:

Tepin, racehorse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/19/2017

The Curse of Apollo is going to be discussed a lot when it comes to this horse leading into the Kentucky Derby, so we might as well discuss that first. In 1882 Apollo became the eighth winner of the Kentucky Derby. He had not run as a two year old - all thoroughbreds have a Jan. 1 birthday regardless of when they were actually born. In the 134 years since, no horse has repeated the feat - every other winner of the Derby ran at least once at two. Patch ran for the first time on Jan. 15. That's not good.

Midnight Lute, a horse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2017

I really hope that this preview is a wasted effort on my part. As it stands now all indications are that this horse is heading to the Kentucky Derby. On one hand, I get it - it's really, really tough to get into this race, so if a horse earns the points to get in then it's really tempting to take a shot. It's not like you can hold off and try again later. Some horses just don't have much of a chance, though, and this is definitely one of them. There are definitely things to like about him, but like too many of the Todd Pletcher horses this year he's raw, unpolished and just not ready for this challenge at this time. If I was making the decisions he would be saved for a much better spot than the Derby instead of risking so much in a race that just doesn't suit him.

Kentucky Derby Winner Mine That Bird.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2017

What a strange trip to the Kentucky Derby this has been for Classic Empire. He was the dominant and impressive two-year-old champion, and unlike some horses that earn that honor he had the look of a true Kentucky Derby contender. It seemed like he was in cruise control. But then things got rocky. A terrible race. Injuries. Bad behavior. Spotty training. He went from incredible to very easy to doubt. In a salvation tale worthy of Disney, though, he finally returned to the track for the Arkansas Derby, and he did everything one could have hoped.

Jockey Frankie Dettori.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2017

I feel a bit like a broken record as I write the previews for each potential Kentucky Derby horse. This is an obviously talented and well-bred colt from the Todd Pletcher barn that doesn't have enough depth of experience to make him easy to trust. Just like Patch. And Malagacy. Unlike those two, though, at least this colt doesn't have to worry about the curse of Apollo - no colt since Apollo in 1882 has won the Derby without running as a two year old, but this colt ran twice at two.

California Chrome and Jockey Victor Espinoza


by Trevor Whenham - 4/12/2017

The last major Kentucky Derby prep race of the 2017 season is upon us. This race has always been my favorite of the Derby preps, and since 2004 it has been on a very productive run. That year Smarty Jones won the race and then nearly won the Triple Crown. The 2005 winner, Afleet Alex, should have won the Triple Crown - he somehow finished a short length behind the underwhelming Giacomo in the Derby, won the Preakness, and then just crushed the field in the Belmont.

Stay Thirsty, trained by Todd Pletcher


by Trevor Whenham - 4/11/2017

The UAE Derby has, for the last several years, offered enough Kentucky Derby points that the winner can run in the Kentucky Derby. After Regal Ransom became the first in 2009 to make the trip, four of the last five winners have made the trip - Daddy Long Legs, Lines of Battle, Mubtaahij and Lani. None of those five horses has been a particular threat in the Derby. Sooner or later, though, a horse based in Dubai is going to do some damage in the Derby. It's one of the world's great races, and one of the huge-money owners over there will want roses for their mantle.

Kentucky Derby contender Eskendereya


by Trevor Whenham - 4/11/2017

Tapwrit is the Zack Greinke of this three-year-old class. When Greinke has his head on right and is into his game he's a freakish talent - the match of any pitcher on the mound. With all of his demons, though, you can never trust that he'll be present when needed, and as a result the guy has wasted a stunning amount of talent over the years. He'll frustrate you endlessly, but you can't give up on him because you know what he can do when he is in his zone.

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