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Kentucky Derby Picks, Tips, Expert Betting Predictions


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Rachel Alexandra is one of only three fillys to race in the Preakness Stakes in modern times.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/11/2017

One of the very tough parts of handicapping the Kentucky Derby is that so often you have to make judgment calls about horses. J Boys Echo is a perfect example. He has run one really good race. Strong. And three other graded stakes that were less impressive. So, do you assume that the one race was him at his full potential and that he can replicate that in the Derby? Or do you just figure that he caught lightning in a bottle that one day and the other performances are closer to what we can expect.

Breeders' Cup Blind Luck


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017

Irish War Cry has only three career graded stakes race starts, yet in that short time he has sent those, like me, who like him on a real rollercoaster ride. He convincingly beat a strong cast in the Holy Bull and it seemed like he was among the very best in the country. Then he was a disastrous seventh in a no-show performance in the Fountain of Youth and you had to wonder if he was really capable of performing at the highest levels after all. Then he came out and won the Wood Memorial with a very professional effort, and again it's fairly easy to believe in him.

Kentucky Derby Winner Animal Kingdom


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017

If everything goes according to plan then Girvin will become the first Louisiana Derby winner since Grindstone in 1996 to win the Kentucky Derby. There have been some good horses since that have fallen short - Peace Rules was third in 2006, and Pants on Fire, Pyro and Circular Quay were all nice horses who didn't have their best day in Louisville. Is Girvin, the colt who has won three of four career starts, including the two biggest Derby prep races at Fair Grounds, the horse to restore the reputation of the race that brought us the great Preakness and Belmont winner Risen Star, among others?

Super Saver


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017

I never entirely believe in giving a horse a mulligan for an underwhelming race, but with McCraken I come as close as I ever come. After his wins in the Kentucky Jockey Club in November and the Sam F. Davis in February I was comfortable with the argument that this colt was as good as any in the country this year. But then a minor injury leading into the Tampa Bay Derby caused him to miss that race, and suddenly he was forced to come into the Blue Grass Stakes off a two-month layoff. Long breaks like that are never really ideal, but especially not for a young, inexperienced horse just looking to learn the game and develop a base of race fitness.

Midshipman with jockey Garrett Gomez


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017

I've hated a lot of things about this frustratingly dismal Kentucky Derby prep season, so when I say that I hated the Santa Anita Derby most of all, it really means something. It was just a total dog of a race - slow, ugly, and impossible to draw meaning from. It would be disappointing for any meaningful major Derby prep to be that lousy, never mind one that has produced five Triple Crown race wins in the last five years - two each from I'll Have Another and California Chrome, and one from Exaggerator.

Kentucky Derby Owners Box


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017

It's easy to forget when looking at Kentucky Derby contenders just how young these horses are. Though they all have an official birthday on Jan. 1, many don't turn three until much later. Practical Joke, for example, was born on April 15. A three year old still isn't fully mature, either. In human terms, it's like we start paying attention to these horses when they are just grade schoolers, and the Derby comes up before they are even in college.

Kentucky Derby contender Eskendereya


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017

Strange things happen with horses that finish fourth in the Sunland Derby. Keep in mind, of course, that the Sunland Derby is about as far outside of the mainstream as you can get with a Kentucky Derby prep. The elite horses don't go there in the first place, so finishing fourth in that race isn't exactly a crowning accomplishment. Yet in 2009 Mine That Bird was a dismal fourth in that race, and he came back to win the Kentucky Derby in truly shocking fashion.

Belmont Stakes entrant Unlimited Budget


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017

Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is a legend, but the last four year he has been snakebit when it comes to the Triple Crown. He has arguably had the best three year old in training in three of the last four years, and he hasn't managed to get one to Kentucky on the first weekend in May yet. In 2014 the previous year's two year old champion Shared Belief was injured on the way to Derby and missed the Triple Crown entirely.

Ria Antonia


by Trevor Whenham - 4/6/2017

The Wood Memorial used to be one of the great races in the country. Four Triple Crown winners won this race en route to the Kentucky Derby -- Gallant Fox, Count Fleet, Assault, and Seattle Slew. Almost countless other Triple Crown race winners and horses that went on to be legendary sires have won it as well. In recent years, though, the race just hasn't been the same.

Master of Hounds


by Trevor Whenham - 4/6/2017

State of Honor will never be mistaken for the best horse in this Kentucky Derby field, but he's the kind of horse you can't help but respect. He has just one win in 10 career starts, but since breaking his maiden in his fifth race he has run only in stakes races, and he has finished second four times and third once. He hasn't proven to be quite good enough, but he always finds a way to be a part of things. He's a warrior.

Midshipman with jockey Garrett Gomez


by Trevor Whenham - 4/6/2017

Every year we face the same challenges when it comes to handicapping the Kentucky Derby. In this case, we need to know how to deal with a massively talented and most impressive colt coming off a very much sub-optimal performance. Were we too optimistic about his real chances heading into the last race, or was that just a bad day that doesn't reflect what he really is?

American Pharoah, racehorse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/5/2017

In recent years the Santa Anita Derby has been a hugely-important step on the Triple Crown trail. I'll Have Another won this race and both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness in 2012. California Chrome pulled off the same triple two years later. Dortmund won this race in 2015, and though he finished third in the Derby he was good enough to win it any year that the freakish American Pharoah wasn't entered. Last year Exaggerator won both the Santa Anita Derby and the Preakness. It's a real reversal for this race, which was mostly irrelevant for the period that it was run on a synthetic track.

Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome


by Trevor Whenham - 4/5/2017

Todd Pletcher is likely heading to the Kentucky Derby with a big group of runners again, and Always Dreaming may be the best of the group. He doesn't have a whole lot of experience to draw from, and he has only one stakes win, but the three races the horse has run in 2017 have been wildly impressive. So, will this horse succeed where so many prior Pletcher horses have failed? The one thing we know for sure is that in this mostly underwhelming group of horses this year there are certainly a lot of horses less likely to win the Derby than this one.

Beholder, racehorse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/5/2017

It's not exactly accurate to say that Fast and Accurate is fast. Or inspiring. Or particularly deserving of a spot in the Kentucky Derby. Yet here he is. He has the points to get in and an owner who is rich enough and crazy enough to pay the $200,000 late nomination fee because the horse was not even Triple Crown nominated heading into his Kentucky Derby prep race.

Animal Kingdom


by Trevor Whenham - 4/5/2017

If I owned a horse that earned enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby, I'd be there no matter how slow the horse was, how small his chances were, and how questionable the way I earned those points. I mean, think about it - owners get great seats, invitations to all the parties, barn passes, and so much more. It's like the ultimate VIP experience. That, I assume, is the thinking behind sending Hence to the Kentucky Derby.

Nyquist, Kentucky Derby winner


by Trevor Whenham - 4/4/2017

I have to start by saying how great it is to have the Blue Grass Stakes actually mean something again. From 2007 to 2014 Keeneland was a synthetic track, and a quirky one at that, so the race produced Kentucky Derby entrants but none that were particularly relevant. This is the third time they have run the race since returning, mercifully, to dirt, and now again this is a very important prep race. And it should be - this is the race that has produced some historic heroes over the years.

Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another


by Trevor Whenham - 3/2/2017

It seems like the Gulfstream Park set of Kentucky Derby prep races - the Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby - are often the most interesting. We've seen memorable performances in each in recent years, and there is never a shortage of good horses enjoying the winter sunshine and looking to book their ticket to Churchill Downs.

Stay Thirsty, trained by Todd Pletcher


by Trevor Whenham - 3/2/2017

While the smart New York-based trainers escape the harsh winner and general dullness of Aqueduct and head south to Florida for the winter, there are those who bravely choose to stay behind. For them the Gotham Stakes serves as both a way to earn a ticket to the Kentucky Derby and a warmup for the Wood Memorial. Unfortunately, the New York prep races haven't been hugely relevant in recent years, but hopefully things change this year.

Kentucky Derby contender Eskendereya


by Trevor Whenham - 2/23/2017

The path to the Kentucky Derby enters a new phase with the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds in New Orleans this weekend. This is the first domestic race with 50 Derby qualifying points available to the winner. That has been more than enough to get into the Derby field ever since this new qualifying format was launched, so this is the first of the de facto win-and-you're-in races.

Oxbow, ridden by Gary Stevens


by Dave Schwab - 5/6/2016

While picking "to win" bets in the annual "Run for the Roses" probably account for much of the betting action this race pulls in, some of the best chances to actually cash in on a winning ticket revolve around the betting odds that are released for any number of special prop bets in conjunction with horse racing's biggest betting event of the year.

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