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Last Weeks Expert College Football Picks from our handicappers.
Just so the public knows we are always transparent and honest with our reporting, in this spot we will list all of the previous weeks college football picks and analysis.
This page will be updated each Thursday at 5AM Eastern.
Thursday 13th of September 2018
Doc's Sports
4 Unit Play. Take #148 Wisconsin Badgers -21.5 over BYU Cougars (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 15 ABC) We have had great success using Wisconsin in this matchup, hitting big plays with the Badgers in their last two meetings with the Cougars. BYU's opening victory against Arizona has been greatly devalued since Arizona got blown out last week against Houston, and they are just not very good. Wisconsin went to Provo last year and tore apart BYU, with QB Alex Hornibrook having a career day by completing 18 of 19 passes for a quarterback rating of 277.4 (career high by far). BYU still has major issues on offense, and this is the game in which Wisconsin will finally open up the playbook and actually try to score points instead of just running the ball into 8-man fronts. BYU is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Wisconsin is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after an ATS loss in their previous game.
8 Unit Play. Take #163 Tulane Green Wave -3.5 over UAB Blazers (1p.m., Saturday, September 15 Facebook) NONCONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR UAB decided to bring back football for some reason after a two-year absence, but I just do not believe they can compete with teams from the American Athletic Conference. UAB is -77.5 ATS in their last 4 lined games and have lost 4 straight games against Tulane. The Green Wave are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 nonconference games. Tulane is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against UAB. Tulane just missed out on being bowl eligible last year and with Ohio State on deck this is a must win game for them in their hopes of reaching 6 wins. Tulane returns a ton of experience on offense led by QB Bank and WR Encalade. They should be able to pick apart the Blazers on defense and I just do not believe UAB will be able to keep pace. Tulane pulls away in the second half to win this game by double digits.
4 Unit Play. Take #166 Baylor Bears -6 over Duke Blue Devils (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 15 FS1) I felt the oddsmakers were begging you to take Northwestern last week against Duke, and the same is true this week. How can a Baylor team that went 1-11 last year be this big of a favorite against Duke? Well, for starters Duke will be without their all-everything QB Daniel Jones, who suffered a broken collarbone last week against Northwestern. All 21 points Duke scored last week where when he was in the game. They will also be without CB Mark Gilbert. Generally, injuries are overrated in handicapping UNLESS it involves the quarterback position. Duke was outgained and out first-downed last week, so their 21-7 victory is a little misleading.
Baylor returns a ton of experience from last year and hung with Duke in Durham in 2017. They have two quarterbacks with playing experience in 2018 and a nice staple of running backs. It will be imperative that they do not let QB Quentin Harris beat them with his legs. Baylor has fallen off the cliff since Art Briles was replaced as head coach, but they have a solid coach in Matt Rhule and they have already surpassed their win total from last year. Baylor is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less that 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
4 Unit Play. Take #174 Arkansas Razorbacks -7 over North Texas Mean Green (4p.m., Saturday, September 15 SECN) The Razorbacks should be able to get back on track at home against North Texas on Saturday. This will be the first true road game for the Mean Green, and they are just 8-16 ATS in their last 24 games as a road underdog. Arkansas had a big lead last week before Colorado State rallied to win. This will be a step up for North Texas, and they are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Arkansas losing last week makes them a play this week, as Coach Chad Morris will have his team's attention all week and will play a full 4 quarters on Saturday.
4 Unit Play. Take #206 Utah Utes +5.5 over Washington Huskies (10p.m., Saturday, September 15 ESPN) I believe Utah is the team to beat in the PAC-12 South, and getting points with them at home is a prime opportunity for a big play. Washington will be traveling for the second time in three weeks to open the season, and this will be another hostile environment. Utah is 6-3 ATS as a home underdog and had Washington beat last year in Seattle before a late rally by the Huskies allowed them to emerge victorious. Washington is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Utah is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing during the month of September.
4 Unit Play. Take #210 San Diego State Aztecs +6 over Arizona State Sun Devils (10:30p.m., Saturday, September 15 CBSSN) Everyone is drinking the Herm Edwards Kool-Aid after beating Michigan State last week and I feel this number is inflated. SDSU won in Tempe last year by double digits, and I feel they have a good chance to win this game straight-up. Arizona State has Washington on deck, and playing at his half empty stadium is always a tough task to get the adrenalin flowing. SDSU is not as strong as they have been in the past couple of years, but they still play sound football and like to control the game with a strong running attack and solid defense and that should be able to chip away at the clock and keep them in this game for 60 minutes. ASU is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against MWC teams. SDSU is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss in their previous game.
Robert Ferringo
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
1-Unit Play. Take #117 Hawaii (+6.5) over Army (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 15)
The only reason that this isn't a much bigger play is the tough travel and time difference for Hawaii. But right now the Rainbow Warriors are on a rush and I think that they will keep it rolling. Army has had an awesome two-year run (by their standards). But this year's team isn't nearly as good as last year's squad. They were only a touchdown favorite over Liberty last week, and they let the Flames hang around in that game. Hawaii already went on the road and beat Colorado State as a big underdog. And I think that they are good enough to do the same here.
1-Unit Play. Take #125 Florida State (-2.5) over Syracuse (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 15)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 68.0 Florida State at Syracuse (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 15)
Look, until I see Syracuse win a game like this I'm not sure they can. Florida State has not looked good at all. I have questions about Willie Taggart in this program. And they don't have the top-end talent that we've seen from the Seminoles in years past. But I still think they are better than Syracuse. The Orange are going to score points. But can they stop anyone? They allowed 41 points to Western Michigan in the opener. Can they get stops against Florida State? Can they get enough stops to win this game outright? Syracuse has been competitive against top-end teams that have taken them lightly. But if you look back over their last three years they have flopped when facing teams that they are expected to compete with. Syracuse is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 games with a spread of a touchdown or less. I think Florida State will get this win and I see both teams easily scoring at least 30 points apiece.
3-Unit Play. Take #127 Oklahoma (-17.5) over Iowa State (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 15)
It's revenge time. Iowa State pulled a huge upset over Oklahoma in Norman last year, shaking off a 14-0 deficit to win outright as a 31-point underdog. Oklahoma definitely has not forgotten about that game and they will not take the Cyclones lightly. The Sooners have looked dominating through the first two weeks, scoring 102 points and crushing decent Florida Atlantic and UCLA teams. They got backdoored last week but I think that they will take care of business in this game. Iowa State had their first game cancelled. That meant that last week's rivalry game at Iowa was their season opener. It didn't go well. The Cyclones only scored three points and lost by 10. Now they have to pick themselves up and take on an angry, more talented Oklahoma squad. Further, Iowa State quarterback Kyle Kempt got hurt in the fourth quarter of that Iowa game. I think he's going to play. But he's not 100 percent and there is no telling whether or not he will play the whole game or how effective he'll be. If Iowa State is forced to go to a backup quarterback then they could get buried. I know this is a big number. But I think OU has a big motivation and wants to make a big statement.
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #127 Oklahoma (-10.5) over Iowa State (Noon) AND
Take #154 Auburn (-3) over LSU (3:30 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #131 Rutgers (+3) over Kansas (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 15)
Kansas shouldn't be favored over anyone. Anywhere. At any time. They already lost to an FCS team this year. Sure, they won big last week against Central Michigan. But they only needed six turnovers to do it. If Rutgers doesn't turn the ball over more than twice then I think they will win this game. They are a better team, in my opinion, and I think they will rebound from a disappointing effort last week. The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five nonconference games and are 6-2 ATS after a loss of three touchdowns or more. Kansas is 2-9 ATS after a win and they are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 nonconference games. I'll take the kids from Jersey.
1-Unit Play. Take #140 Virginia (-3.5) over Ohio (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
2-Unit Play. Take #154 Auburn (-10) over LSU (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
The home team has absolutely dominated this series, winning five straight and eight of the last nine meetings between these two. The home team is also an outstanding 8-1 against the spread in those nine games and is 16-2 straight up dating back to 2000. Despite the talent on both sides of the field this series really hasn't featured many close games. The average margin of victory over the last 10 years is 15.1 points per game and three of the last nine meetings have been decided by less than one score. When you put it into that context laying out nearly 10 points doesn't seem like such a stretch. Auburn is the better team, playing at home, with revenge. I think that historical norms will hold in this one and I think that Auburn will make up for last year's gut-wrenching loss - remember, they were up 20-0 on the road in that one - with a blowout home win here.
3-Unit Play. Take #158 Northern Illinois (-14) over Central Michigan (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Northern Illinois has lost to Central Michigan four straight years. I don't think they are very happy about it. And I think they are going to do something about it. They have the better offensive and defensive lines and they are a more tested group after games against Utah and Iowa. I think this is the weakest Central Michigan team that they've had in some time and I think that this team is going to struggle even to make it to a bowl game. There haven't been a ton of blowouts in this series. But double-digit favorites in this series are 4-0 ATS over the last decade. So when it is supposed to happen it usually does happen. I like NIU to get back in the win column in this series with a major victory.
3-Unit Play. Take #163 Tulane (-3.5) over UAB (1 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Last year UAB had a dream season. They came out of nowhere after two years of no program, won eight games, pulled a bunch of upsets, and got themselves to a bowl game. It really was one of the best stories in college football. But I think that this year is the letdown year. They got bombed in the second half at Coastal Carolina last week and were torn up on the ground, allowing 296 rushing yards. They are No. 111 in the country in rushing defense and are now facing a tough option attack of Tulane. This is a pretty solid Tulane team. They nearly took out Wake Forest in their opener and Willie Fritz is determined to get this team back to a bowl game for just the second time since 2002. This is his best team yet and I think that they are good enough to go on the road and get this win.
2-Unit Play. Take #168 Florida (-20.5) over Colorado State (4 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Colorado State was down 27-9 at home against Arkansas, a team that is worse than Florida. Now the Rams have to travel across the country, play in stifling humidity, and face a Florida team that has to be pissed off after losing their SEC opener. This is a really bad setup for Colorado State. I don't think that this team is good at all and, frankly, they should be 0-3 right now. Dan Mullen is going to have his guys ready to play and I think that the Gators are going to absolutely bury the needle here.
3-Unit Play. Take #174 Arkansas (-7) over North Texas (4 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Look, I am pot-committed to Arkansas. I still believe that this team is better than its numbers suggests. They were up 27-9 last week in Colorado State before throwing up on themselves in the fourth quarter. That loss was garbage. And I don't think that they are going to lose two in a row to non-Power 5 teams. North Texas is good at what they do. They throw the ball a ton and they try to spread teams out and they want to score, score, score. But they don't have the depth or talent to go toe-to-toe with an SEC opponent for 60 minutes. Last year they were blown out at a middling Iowa team. Two years ago they went to Florida and lost 32-0 to a not-good Florida team. The only other decent teams that they've faced the past two seasons - Florida Atlantic twice last year and Louisiana Tech in 2016 - beat the Mean Green by 24, 38 and 21 points. North Texas is 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games as a double-digit underdog. In my opinion they should be a double-digit dog in this game. Arkansas head coach Chad Morris knows this North Texas team. He's faced them three years in a row and he went 3-0 SU and ATS against the Mean Green. That was with SMU. He definitely has better talent at Arkansas than he did at SMU. North Texas is 2-0 and has some big numbers. But they played a bad SMU team and a horrible Incarnate Word squad. This is a major step up, on the road, and I don't think they will be close.
2-Unit Play. Take #191 Missouri (-6) over Purdue (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Purdue had a lot of fun last year. New coach Jeff Brohm helped them to seven wins, a bowl game, and a bowl win. He made the Boilermakers competitive in the Big Ten almost overnight. But they still have a long way to go. This year's team isn't nearly as good as last year's, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. They lost at home to Northwestern and then turned around and lost outright as a two-touchdown favorite to Eastern Michigan (huh?) last week. They are not throwing the ball well and they can't seem to stop the pass. That's a problem against Drew Lock and the Tigers offense. Missouri is another team that is playing with revenge this week. They got hammered 35-3 at home by the Boilermakers last year. They would love to dole out a similar beating. The Tigers walked through a pretty solid Wyoming defense last week and I think they will do the same to Purdue. Also, this Tigers defense has been outstanding since head coach Barry Odom gave up making the calls to Ryan Walters last year. Since that move they've surrendered just 21 points per game. They are scoring 46 per game during that same stretch. I will take the better team with the revenge motivation.
3-Unit Play. Take #202 Texas (-3) over USC (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
USC is kind of a mess. I have never been a big fan of Clay Helton's and I think he is going to struggle this year in an improving Pac-12. I also think they are really going to struggle in this game after getting beaten up by Stanford last week. The Trojans offensive line has been terrible. And if they can't dominate the trenches - which they won't - then I don't think that their quarterback and skill position players are good enough to go out and get a road win against a somewhat desperate Texas team. The Longhorns got backdoored last week against Tulsa. But for the first 2.5 quarters they looked focused and disciplined. The Longhorns have the more experienced team. They are also playing at home and they have revenge for an OT loss at USC last year. If they nearly beat the Trojans with Sam Bradford last year I think they can beat the Trojans (in Austin) without him this year.
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Indian Cowboy
6-Unit Play. Take #154. Auburn -9.5 vs LSU (Saturday @ 3:30p.m. est).
Let's talk about LSU first. They are a very young team and the fact that they beat Miami should be taken with a grain of salt because the Hurricanes are completely overrated and the step up in competition to Auburn will show full well in this spot. Look, Auburn lost to this LSU team last year 27-23 when they gave up 10 unanswered fourth-quarter points. The revenge angle is real in college football and we expect Auburn to extract that revenge by laying a beat down on the Tigers in front of their home crowd. We saw what Auburn was capable of on defense as they held Washington - a high scoring team - to just 16 points. Auburn will have a game plan in place that will attack LSU's weakness thanks to the master game-planner, Gus Malzahn. This game will go a long way in determining who will get into the SEC title game, but we believe that Auburn is the right play in this spot.
5-Unit Play. Take #168. Florida -19.5 vs Colorado State (Saturday @ 4:00p.m. est).
Florida lost to Kentucky last week for the first time in 31 years. How embarrassed do you think the Gator players are feeling right now? The Gators are a program rich with history, so we expect them to bounce back in a big way and trounced Colorado State. Look, Colorado State is the perfect opponent for the Gators to take their frustrations out on. The Rams are getting 2 million to come play in the swamp and have given up 550 yards rushing in two games. If the Gators can't exploit that (which we expect them to do) then they have more problems, then they lead on. Colorado State managed to beat Arkansas last week at home after winning the fourth quarter 17-0. Florida knows they can't take them lightly, but they also know if they play their game and execute, the Rams shouldn't even be on the same field as them.
3-Unit Play. Take #131. Under 44.5 Rutgers vs Kansas (Saturday @ 12:00p.m. est).
Rutgers is a bad team. Kansas may be just as bad. So, the general rule of thumb when two bad teams play is that it's likely to be a bad game. Look, Rutgers gave up 52 points to Ohio State, but that was always going to happen. Kansas snapped a 46-game road losing streak by beating Central Michigan 31-7. Both teams are defensive minded (if you can believe it), so in this spot, with a freshman QB at the helm for Rutgers and a Kansas team that is feeling rejuvenated on both sides of the ball, especially on defense, we can expect a lower scoring game. Look, Kansas will want to win back-to-back games for the first time since 2011. They'll go all out and that means turning in another massive defensive performance. Rutgers doesn't have the firepower to cover the 70% of the total on their own, so we like the under in this spot.
3-Unit Play. Take #108. Tennessee -31.5 vs UTEP (Saturday @ 12:00p.m. est).
We view this as one of those morale-boosting games for a program that hasn't been prominent since Peyton Manning left. Look, Tennessee will want to demolish UTEP in this spot to keep the players believing in the cause and to keep them happy before a big showdown with Florida. The Volunteers put up 59 last week against ETSU, and UTEP might be worse, as they've lost 14 straight games, which is the longest losing streak in the FBS. They also gave up 52 to UNLV of all teams, so Tennessee should have their way offensively. Not to mention, they likely won't give up 24 points like UNLV did, so it's the perfect recipe for a Volunteer blowout win.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS
3 Unit Play. Take #169 Houston -1.5 over Texas Tech (4:15p.m., Saturday September 15 FOX)
Last year Texas Tech beat Houston in Houston by 3-points and Saturday night I see revenge being served as the Cougars will take this game in Jones AT&T Stadium. Texas Tech didn't impress me at all against Ole Miss and if they get behind early this game could get ugly. I do believe the better defensive unit on the field will be the Houston Cougars and that is why they win this game against Tech. Texas Tech is 3-7 ATS last 10 home games while the Cougars have covered 13 out 19 non-conference games.
3 Unit Play. Take #196 Mississippi St -33 over UL Lafayette (7:30p.m., Saturday September 15)
Yes this is a huge number but the UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns will be in for a very long evening. The Bulldogs will hit the half century mark against the Cajuns defense and I don't see the Cajuns going toe-to-toe on offense against Mississippi St. Ragin Cajuns are 1-5 ATS against non-conference opponents and the Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games.
6 Unit Play. Take #203 Over 58.5 Ohio St at TCU (8:00p.m., Saturday September 15 ABC)
Last week we had UNLV over as our 6-Unit College Football total and they put up 52 points themselves and Saturday night at AT&T Stadium I see the Ohio St Buckeyes hitting the 50 mark against a TCU team that struggled against SMU. I know TCU beat SMU 42-12 but in the first half the Horn Frogs made tons of mistakes and if they make mistakes against Ohio St I see the Buckeyes turning those mistakes to touchdowns. Too much offense on the Buckeyes side and TCU will need to go toe-to-toe on offense if they want to hang around Saturday night. Give me the OVER!!! Ohio St is 8-3 O/U following a SU win and the TCU Horn Frogs are 9-4 O/U in non-conference games.
4 Unit Play. Take #206 Utah +5.5 over Washington (10:00p.m., Saturday September 8 ESPN)
Yes I know Washington has dominated this series winning 10 out 11 meetings but Utah has always played the Huskies tough and I see another tough game Saturday night. Last year Washington beat Utah in Washington 33-30 and it wouldn't shock me to see another 3-point winning in this meeting. We all know that the defense of Utah will be ready and if the Utes can make some key stops in the second half I see the Utes covering this number and maybe just maybe pulling off the upset. Give me the Utes plus the points at home late Saturday night. Washington is 0-4 AT in their last 4 road games and the underdog in this series is 5-0 ATS.
Tony George
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL 9/15
2 Units - #127 Oklahoma (-17.5) over Iowa State *12 Noon EST
Love the Sooners here in a revenge spot as ISU came into Norman last year with a 3rd string QB and beat OU soundly, so any thoughts of OU overlooking this game is unfounded. Everywhere I read that OU's defense is suspect and that they are no good and this is the first road game and Ames is a snake pit to play in and this is on upset alert, I am not in that majority. The Cyclones played their first game last week as week 1 was cancelled and it showed, 3 points against Iowa in an emotional loss in an in-state rivalry game. ISU looked like total dog crap in that game, and word is a 2nd string QB starting this game for ISU as Kempt is listed as doubtful. OU will not let Iowa State beat them with a backup QB 2 years in a row. OU crushed both Florida Atlantic and UCLA, and while they lost their stud RB, they have 3 more in the wings that can play for anyone and this offense will not miss a beat as OU is very explosive and have numerous playmakers including a stud QB in Murray. ISU cannot trade punches on the scoreboard, plain and simple as OU's defense is the better defense. This line should be 3 TD's, good value in a big number.
6 Units - #203 Ohio State (-12.5) over TCU *8 EST - TOP PLAY
In my opinion, Ohio State is the best team in the NCAA right now, better than Bama. They are elite at almost every position, and Haskins at QB is a massive playmaker and vastly better than anything TCU has seen all season or has to offer on their side. TCU's offense is sluggish at best and the vaunted defense that TCU is known for is average at best, and pedestrian more likely against the offensive attack OSU will unleash. This game is in Dallas at Jerry World, so TCU is a 30-minute bus ride from home, but OSU will have a strong contingent at this game. TCUC looked bad against SMU and their young OL will struggle against OSU front 4 on defense limiting their passing game. Patterson a good coach for TCU and Urban Meyer is still at home eating popcorn, but you simply cannot ignore the talent differential. Like OSU here by 3 TDS.
2 Units - #169 Houston ( -1.5) over Texas Tech *4:15 EST
Texas Tech plays no defense, Texas Tech is shuffling as many as 3 QBs in a game, and Kliff Kingsbury is a BAD head coach and his team is simply outmanned and will be outcoached here against Houston in what should be a shootout. Tech opened at -3 and it looks to be a take on them grabbing 4 points of opening line swing but TT struggles in big games against good offenses and make too many mistakes and are totally undisciplined. Houston just railed Arizona and beat up cross town rival Rice after struggling in the first half of that game and head coach Applewhite is well in tune to the Lubbock Texas home field advantage / snakepit scenario since he played there as the QB of Texas and since he became a CFB coach. I cannot trust Kliff Kingsbury in a big game against a team comparable in talent, he finds ways to lose, takes unnecessary risks, and has no stud QB this year that can bail them out late as in the past, at least not yet.
3 Units - #130 Nebraska (-11.5) over Troy *12 Noon EST
A late practice report from an insider has me moving on NU despite the 4-point line steam up from the opener at -7.5. Yes, Nebraska has Michigan on deck but it is calling all cars in Lincoln for this one as Scott Frost has given backup QB Bunch 100% of the snaps in practice and he can move the Husker offense just fine, which is 2 deep at RB and a bevy of WR weapons as well. Huskers in foul mood after handing Colorado the game last week in the final minute with a stupid personal foul penalty which cost them the win, and spotting them 14 points on turnovers in the first 5 minutes of her game. Martinez, the Husker QB and future superstar for them, will not see action as a grade 1 MCL strain needs another week to heal and they want him for Michigan, and word is out of Lincoln behind the scenes Frost is pulling out all stops for a big win and will drop the hammer. A Husker win by 2 TDs here in Lincoln and get some momentum headed into Ann Arbor where they no doubt will lose, but want to make a good showing and confidence is needed. You can expect a very focused and hungry Husker team Saturday. Troy played 1 good team in Boise State and were eviscerated in that game.
Vernon Croy
6-Unit Play. Take #165 Duke +6.5 over Baylor (Saturday, September 15th at 3:30 PM ET)
Take Duke ATS as my 6-Unit CFB Smash for Saturday afternoon. This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and I have Duke winning this game outright even with Harris under center. Harris actually gives the Blue Devils more versatility under center as he is a dual threat quarterback with his speed that Jones lacked. We also now gained 6 points because of Jones' broken collarbone so there is plenty of value here Saturday. Baylor has played nobody to start the season while Duke is coming off a dominant road win against Northwestern. The Blue Devils are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a win. Baylor is just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Play Duke ATS as we move to 26-11 with my last 37 college football plays.
Scott Spreitzer
6-Unit Play: Take 118 Army -6.5 over Hawaii (12 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
I'm laying the points with Army on Saturday. I'm fully aware that Hawaii has already seen one option attack and took care of business against Navy on the islands. But this will be their toughest test yet. I expect the Army triple-option to prove too much for UH in the second half, and the start time sure doesn't help the islanders as this will be a 6 AM start as far as their body clocks are concerned. Finally, and most importantly, Hawaii has become an overvalued team due to their SU success. We saw it as an inflated favorite last week and we're seeing is here where they would be an even bigger dog before the season began. Hawaii is better than advertised in August, but not ready to hang this number in our betting opinion. I'm laying the points with Army on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
4-Unit Play: Take 136 Pittsburgh +4 over Ga Tech (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
I'm grabbing the points with the Pitt Panthers on Saturday. We're getting value thanks to a second half Pittsburgh meltdown a week ago. Pitt lost 51-6 to Penn State, but trailed just 7-6 with less than a minute to go in the first half. They allowed a late TD and went into mistake-mode for the rest of the game. Turnovers and blunders by all units gave Penn State an open door and the Nittany Lions took full advantage. Pitt actually out-rushed PSU and held their in-state rivals to 390 total yards, hardly enough to legitimately put 51 points on the board without help from a mistake-prone opponent. The Panthers are on a 12-5 ATS run after allowing over 40 points. Meanwhile, Ga Tech is laying points on the road. The Jackets have not even won a road game outright since November 26, 2016, going 0-6 SU and failing to cover four in a row. The value lies with the Pitt Panthers. We're grabbing the points with Pittsburgh on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 151 Miami-Oh., +13 over Minnesota (3:30 p.m., Sat. Sept 15)
I'm taking the points with Miami-Ohio on Saturday. I'm still not sold on the Golden Gophers. I went against them last week and watched Fresno State blow the game with dumb play-calling and player miscues. The Gophers gained just 307 total yards on 4.3 yards per play and ran for less than 3 yards per carry. They took advantage of a +2 turnover margin and a Fresno halfback option pass INT in the endzone for the win (extremely dumb play-call from the FSU staff). Minnesota enters with the 92nd ranked pass offense even though one of their two games came against lowly New Mexico State. Miami-Ohio is off to a 0-2 start and we went against them with Marshall on our Docsports.com Vegas Beat podcast. They have played well defensively and only trailed Cincy by 7 points until a couple of late Bearcat scores. We don't get excited about a game or two. We also don't overadjust our power ratings based off the first two games of a season. And our power numbers said Minnesota should be an 8.5-point favorite in this game when we made our ratings before last week's games (something we recommend doing - making numbers two weeks in advance). The Gus Ragland passing game was off last week, we'll look for him to bounce back on Saturday. We're grabbing the points with Miami-Ohio on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 148 Wisconsin -21.5 over BYU (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
I'm laying the points with Wisconsin on Saturday. The Badgers lollygagged through their first two games, winning both by 31 points apiece, while failing to cover either spread. But this is a spot where they won't lose focus, taking on a traditionally strong program and getting ready for the conference season which begins next week. BYU's win over Arizona means very little now that we know the Wildcats are an absolute mess. And last weekend, BYU lost to Cal and gained just 287 total yards and less than 3 yards per carry on the ground. BYU QB Mangum completed just 22 of 41 passes with 1 TD and 2 INTs. BYU is on a 1-6 ATS slide against teams with a winning record and we'll go against them here. I'm laying the points with Wisconsin on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 173 North Texas +7 over Arkansas (4 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
I'm taking the points with North Texas on Saturday. The Hogs are off an ultra-tough loss to Colorado State and have a date with Auburn up next. And while it's not the same staff, Arkansas has covered just 7 of their last 21 games. North Texas should be able to move the football and score! QB Mason Fine is on fire, passing for more than 900 yards with a 7-1, TD-INT ratio. Arkansas couldn't slow the CSU passing game last week when it counted and we don't believe they'll slow this offense. North Texas has covered 8 of their last 11 non-conference games and they're on a 5-0 ATS run against teams from the SEC. Arkansas is on a 0-6-2 ATS slide outside of SEC play and they're 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. I'm taking the points with North Texas on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 202 Texas -3.5 over USC (8 p.m., Saturday, September 15)
I'm laying the points with Texas on Saturday night. Neither team could muster a running game in last year's 27-24 USC win in OT. The difference in the game turned out to be the passing of Trojan QB Sam Darnold. But he's off to the NFL and we don't like the look of the USC offense at the current time. USC failed to cover at home against UNLV and led by just five, 19-14 at the end of three quarters. USC allowed the Rebels to rush for 308 yards on 7.2 yards per carry and without any threat of a passing game. They gave up another 155 yards on 5.5 per carry in last week's 17-3 loss to Stanford. The Trojan offense has issues and was completely dismantled by the Cardinal after doing nothing for three quarters against outmanned UNLV. Meanwhile, Texas is as balanced as it gets. They can offer USC's defense a lot to deal with both on the ground and through the air. Last week was a tough, somewhat sandwich spot for the Longhorns, but that's behind them and they put the game with Tulsa in the win column. At 1-1 this has become an even bigger home game for HC Tom Herman. And we note USC is on a 3-13-1 ATS slide overall, including 0-6 ATS in non-conference games. We'll lay the points with Texas on Saturday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 206 Utah +5 over Washington (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
I'm grabbing the points with the Utah Utes on Saturday night. The Huskies are having issues in the ground game and the lack of balance is causing some problems in the passing game. After tossing 62 TD passes with just 14 INTs the last two seasons combined, UW QB Jake Browning has just 3 TDs with 3 INTs through two games this season. He's also seen his completion rate fall from 68.5% to under 60% in 2018. No ground game to worry about means one of the nation's best defenses can focus on harassing Browning. Utah ranks #1 in total yards and passing yards allowed and 21st against the run. They completely dismantled Northern Illinois in week-1. This has been a close series of late and we expect another one here. We'll back Utah plus the points as the underdog gains its 6th straight cover in this series. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Alan Harris
3 Unit Play. Take #108 Tennessee -30.5 over UTEP (12:00 PM, Saturday, September 15, SEC Network)
UTEP has posted a 1-5 ATS record in their last six non-conference games and they have gone 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss. They have also failed to cover the number in seven of their last nine games following a game where they allowed 40 points or more and they are an awful 0-4-1 ATS in their last five road games. We have UTEP under 2.5 wins for the season and from what we've seen from them in losses to Northern Arizona and UNLV, we're not sure that they are going to win a game all season long. Throw in the fact that they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games versus a team from the SEC and we're going to lay the big number here with the Vols to get the home win and cover in Knoxville on Saturday afternoon.
4 Unit Play. Take #114 Florida International -4 over UMass (7:30 PM, Saturday, September 15)
Florida International has posted a perfect 4-0-1 ATS record in their last five games following a game where they allowed 100 yards or less on the ground and they have gone an excellent 8-3-1 ATS in their last twelve games following a game where they allowed more than 280 yards through the air. UMass, on the other hand, has struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played in the month of September and they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Throw in the fact that the Minutemen are also 0-4 ATS in their last four games where they faced a Conference USA team while the Panthers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last fourteen at home versus a team with a losing record on the road and we're going to lay the points here with FIU to get the home win and cover in Miami on Saturday evening.
5 Unit Play. Take #145 Boise St +2.5 over Oklahoma St (3:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, ESPN)
The Boise St Broncos will look for their third win in a row to open their 2018 season when they hit the road to take on the Oklahoma St Cowboys at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, OK on Saturday afternoon. Boise has posted a perfect 4-0 ATS record in their last four non-conference games and they are an excellent 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win. They have also covered the number in four of their last five games following a game where they allowed 20 points or less and they are an impressive 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall going back into the 2017 season. Oklahoma St, on the other hand, has struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have failed to cover the number in five of their last seven games after allowing less than 170 yards through the air in their previous game. Throw in the fact that Boise is an insane 44-22 ATS in their last 66 road games and we're going to take the points with them here in a game that we have them winning outright in Stillwater on Saturday afternoon.
3 Unit Play. Take #153/154 LSU vs Auburn Under 45 (3:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, CBS)
LSU has posted a 6-1 record to the under in their last seven road games and they have gone an excellent 8-3 to the under in their last eleven games played in the month of September. They have also gone under the number in nine of their last thirteen games following an ATS loss and they are 20-8-1 to the under in their last 29 SEC games. Auburn has been an under team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone 7-1 to the under in their last eight home games versus a team with a winning record on the road and they are 8-2 to the under following an ATS loss. They have also been an under team when facing a team with a winning record, going 15-6-1 to the under in their last 22 games when they were in that spot. Throw in the fact that these two teams are a perfect 4-0 to the under in their last four meetings at Auburn and that's where we'll have our play as we expect both defensive units to play well in a low scoring game on Saturday afternoon.
4 Unit Play. Take #161 New Mexico -4 over New Mexico St (8:00 PM, Saturday, September 15)
The Lobos have posted a 4-1 ATS record in their last five games played in the month of September and they have that same 4-1 ATS record in their last five games played on an artificial surface. The Aggies, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss and they have that same 1-4 ATS record in their last five games following a game where they failed to score 20 points or more. They have also failed to cover the number in each of their last four home games and they are an awful 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. Throw in the fact that the road team has gone an impressive 10-4-1 ATS in the last fifteen head to head meetings between the two rivals and we're going to lay the points here with the Lobos to get the road win and cover in Las Cruces on Saturday night.
3 Unit Play. Take #172 Kansas St -21 over Texas-San Antonio (4:00 PM, Saturday, September 15)
Kansas St has posted a 4-1-1 ATS record in their last six games following an ATS loss and they have gone an excellent 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus a team from Conference USA. UTSA, on the other hand, has struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five versus a team from the Big 12. They have also failed to cover the number in five straight games following a straight up loss and they are an awful 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home. Throw in the fact that the Roadrunners are also 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall while the Wildcats are 4-1 ATS after gaining less than 275 total yards in their previous game and we're going to lay the big number here with K-State in a game that we have them winning in blowout fashion in Manhattan on Saturday afternoon.
4 Unit Play. Take #173 North Texas +7 over Arkansas (4:00 PM, Saturday, September 15, SEC Network)
North Texas has posted a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games following an ATS loss and they have that same 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games played on FieldTurf. They have also covered the number in five of their last six games following a game where they scored 40 points or more and they are an impressive 8-3 ATS in their last eleven road games. The Razorbacks, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 2-6-2 ATS in their last ten home games and they are just 3-8 ATS in their last eleven versus a team with a winning record. They have also failed to cover the number in twelve of their last sixteen games overall and they are an awful 0-6-2 ATS in their last eight non-conference games. Throw in the fact that the Mean Green are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus a team from the SEC and we're going to take the points with them here in a game that we think they have a decent chance to win outright in Fayetteville on Saturday afternoon.
3 Unit Play. Take #183/184 Arkansas St vs Tulsa Under 72 (7:00 PM, Saturday, September 15, CBS Sports Network)
Arkansas St has posted a 6-1 record to the under in their last seven games following a game where they allowed 40 points or more and they have gone an excellent 6-2 to the under in their last eight games following a straight up loss. Tulsa has been a bit of an under team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have stayed under the number in four of their last five games following a straight up loss and they are 6-2 to the under in their last eight games overall going back into the 2017 season. Throw in the fact that the Red Wolves are 15-7 to the under in their last 22 games played in the month of September and 31-15-1 to the under in their last 47 non-conference games and that's where we'll have our play in a game that our numbers have being played in the 60's in Tulsa on Saturday night.
4 Unit Play. Take #191 Missouri -6 vs Purdue (7:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, Big 10 Network)
Missouri has posted a 4-1 ATS record in their last five road games and they have that same 4-1 ATS record in their last five non-conference contests. They have also covered the number in five of their last seven games following a straight up win and they are an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with a winning % of .500 or lower. The Boilermakers, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 2-8 ATS in their last ten games where they faced a team with a winning record and they have failed to cover the number in nine of their last eleven games following a game where they gained more than 200 yards on the ground. Throw in the fact that Missouri is a lights out 9-2 ATS in their last eleven games overall going back to the middle of the 2017 season and we're going to lay the points with them here in a game that we have them winning by double digits in West Lafayette on Saturday night.
6 Unit Play. Take #196 Mississippi St -33 over UL-Lafayette (7:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, SEC Network)
The Mississippi St Bulldogs will look to open their 2018 season with three wins in a row when they take on the UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at Scott Field in Starkville, MS on Saturday night. The Bulldogs have posted a perfect 5-0 ATS record in their last five games where they faced a team with a winning % of .500 or higher and they have gone an excellent 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. They have also covered the number in seven of their last nine home games and they are an impressive 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games played in the month of September. UL-Lafayette, on the other hand, has struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games and they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games. They have also failed to cover the number in five of their last six games following a straight up win and they are an awful 0-4-1 ATS off a straight up win by 20 points or more. Throw in the fact that Mississippi St is a lights out 7-3 ATS in their last ten games overall and we're going to lay the big number with them here in a game that we have them winning in blowout fashion in Starkville on Saturday night.
5 Unit Play. Take #203 Ohio St -12.5 over TCU (8:00 PM, Saturday, September 15, ABC)
The Ohio St Buckeyes will look to win all three games without suspended head coach Urban Meyer when they take on the TCU Horned Frogs at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, TX on Saturday night. The Buckeyes have posted a 4-1 ATS record in their last five games where they faced a team with a winning record and they have gone an excellent 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games. They have also covered the number in four straight games following a game where they gained more than 475 yards of total offense and they have that same perfect 4-0 ATS record in their last four games overall. The Horned Frogs, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and they have that same 1-4 ATS record in their last five games following a straight up win. They have also failed to cover the number in four straight games versus a team with a winning record and they are an awful 2-10 ATS in their last twelve neutral site games. Throw in the fact that TCU is just 1-4 ATS in their last five versus a team from the Big 10 while Ohio St is 6-2 ATS in their last eight when facing a team from the Big 12 and we're going to lay the points here with the Buckeyes in a game that we have them winning in blowout fashion at Jerry World on Saturday night.
2 Unit Sides:
2 Unit Play. Take #109 Ball St +15 over Indiana (12:00 PM, Saturday, September 15, Big 10 Network)
2 Unit Play. Take #111 Temple +17 over Maryland (12:00 PM, Saturday, September 15, Big 10 Network)
2 Unit Play. Take #117 Hawaii +6.5 over Army (12:00 PM, Saturday, September 5, CBS Sports Network)
2 Unit Play. Take #136 Pittsburgh +4.5 over Georgia Tech (12:30 PM, Saturday, September 15)
2 Unit Play. Take #138 Notre Dame -13.5 over Vanderbilt (2:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, NBC)
2 Unit Play. Take #153 LSU +10 over Auburn (3:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, CBS)
2 Unit Play. Take #155 South Florida -10 over Illinois (3:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, Big 10 Network)
2 Unit Play. Take #197 UL-Monroe +27.5 over Texas A&M (7:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, SEC Network)
2 Unit Play. Take #206 Utah +5.5 over Washington (10:00 PM, Saturday, September 15, ESPN)
2 Unit Play. Take #209 Arizona St -5.5 over San Diego St (10:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, CBS Sports Network)
1 Unit Totals:
1 Unit Play. Take #115/116 Miami (FL) vs Toledo Over 57 (12:00 PM, Saturday, September 15, ESPN U)
1 Unit Play. Take #131/132 Rutgers vs Kansas Over 44 (12:00 PM, Saturday, September 15)
1 Unit Play. Take #135/136 Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh Over 54.5 (12:30 PM, Saturday, September 15)
1 Unit Play. Take #141/142 SMU vs Michigan Over 53.5 (3:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, Big 10 Network)
1 Unit Play. Take #155/156 South Florida vs Illinois Under 59 (3:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, Big 10 Network)
1 Unit Play. Take #159/160 Georgia Southern vs Clemson Over 47 (12:00 PM, Saturday, September 15, ESPN 2)
1 Unit Play. Take #209/210 Arizona St vs San Diego St Over 47.5 (10:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, CBS Sports Network)
Mike Davis
4-Unit Play. Take #117 Hawaii +6.5 over Army (Saturday, September 15th at 12:00 p.m)
4-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 62 Hawaii at Army (Saturday, September 15th at 12:00 p.m)
This game is being played at 6:00 a.m. Hawaii time. That is obviously a big concern but the team has been in New York for a few days and their bodies will be acclimated to the time change. Hawaii has already faced Navy this year so they are familiar with the option offense they will see this week. Army is a solid football team but they are facing a high-powered offense in this game. Hawaii has scored 43, 59, and 43 points so far this season. I look for them to score a ton of points again in this football game and I look for them to keep this game within the number -- and possibly win this game outright. Army doesn't have the fast-twitch muscle guys in their secondary to keep up with the offensive weapons of Hawaii. Cole Mcdonald is completing 70% of his passes and he has already passed for 1165 yards and 13 tds with 0 interceptions so far this season. He has been electric for Hawaii. I look for him to play well again this Saturday and I look for a high scoring game once again.
Take Hawaii
Take Over
6-Unit Play. Take #168 Florida -20.5 over Colorado State (Saturday, September 15th at 4:00 p.m)
The Florida Gators have a long way to go to be a contender in the SEC East. They lost to Kentucky last week at home and Dan Mullen will look to put that game behind him and his football team this week. Luckily, they get to face Colorado State this week. The Rams pulled off a miracle victory last week against a poorly coached Arkansas team. However, don't let that game fool you. This Rams team is not very good and they are in the wrong place at the wrong time. They have one guy on their team that could start at Florida and that is Preston Williams (wr). This is their first game away from home and they face the most athletic team they have faced so far. Florida should score at will against the Rams and I look for them to score in the forties fairly easily. I don't see the Rams scoring in the twenties and keeping this game within the number. They are extremely weak at the QB position and their OLine isn't good either. This is a mismatch and it's bad timing for Colorado State.
Take Florida
5-Unit Play. Take #161 New Mexico -4 over New Mexico State (Saturday, September 15th at 8:00 p.m)
I am going to keep this short and to the point. New Mexico State is one of the worst college football teams in the country and I will continue to fade them until the books catch up. I understand that this is a rivalry game but 4 points is a bargain against this team. They aren't physical and they do a lot of arm tackling. I look for New Mexico to finally get a win in this series. They played at Wisconsin last week and they kept it close for a while. They face a much worse opponent this week and I look for them to pull away and win this game by double digits.
Take New Mexico
Best of luck -- Mike
Allen Eastman
3-Unit Play. Take #106 Memphis (-27.5) over Georgia State (7 p.m., Friday, Aug. 14)
I will lay the points in this game. This line has jumped up from 23.5 to 27.5. That tells me where the sharp money is coming in on this game. Memphis lost a tough one last week against division rival Navy. I think they are going to bounce back here. This is a team with a high-powered offense that can score a lot of points. And they are facing a weak Georgia State defense. GSU is coming off a 41-7 loss to North Carolina State last week. They scored first to go up 7-0 and then allowed 41 unanswered points. This team is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games going back to last year. Memphis 5-0 ATS in its last five games played on Friday night and this team will be excited for a chance to get a big win in a primetime night game. Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. I think the Tigers will jump out early in this one and will pull away in the second half for a blowout win.
4-Unit Play. Take #139 Ohio (+3.5) over Virginia (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
This line has dropped from 6.0 to 3.5 and the sharps are all on the team from the MAC in this one. This is a very good Bobcats team and they were one of the best teams in the MAC last year. They are expected to be one of the best teams in the MAC again this year and this is one of Frank Solich's best offenses. Ohio had a bye last week so they have taken two weeks to get ready for this game. This is a team that has beaten Kansas the last two years and have a close loss at Tennessee. They are 3-1 ATS against teams from major conferences. Ohio is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 nonconference games and they are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Virginia is coming off a tough loss to Indiana last week and they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after a loss. I think Ohio has a great chance to win this one and I will take the points.
3-Unit Play. Take #164 UAB (+4) over Tulane (1 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
This is great value on the home underdog. UAB has all of its best players back from last year's 8-5 bowl team. That team made a bowl game after the program was disbanded for two years. They are focused on making another bowl game this year and that means getting this win at home. This team won 52-0 over Savannah State in their first home game and the Blazers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games. This team has a great home field advantage and it will come into play here. They are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games as a home underdog with three outright wins last season. They are 27-19 ATS in their last 46 games as an underdog overall. UAB is also 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after a loss and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after a loss of three touchdowns or more. Tulane is not a good road team at all. They are a terrible 14-57 SU in their last 71 road games. Go with the home team here.
6-Unit Play. Take #181 Alabama (-21) over Mississippi (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
This one is going to be a blowout! Alabama beat this Mississippi team 66-3 last year. I think that they can do the same thing this year. Ole Miss has a high-powered offense. But Alabama played a team like this on opening night when they faced Louisville. They won that game 51-14. Alabama also played a strong offensive team last week in Arkansas State and won that game 57-7. Mississippi is coming off a game against an FCS team. They gave up 41 points to Southern Illinois and were losing 38-35 at halftime of that game. This Mississippi team is not going to be able to slow down Alabama's offense at all with their No. 125 ranked defense. Mississippi is No. 126 in pass defense and No. 101 against the run. Alabama is No. 19 in scoring defense and they have given up just 21 points in their two games even though they have played a lot of backups and played a lot of garbage time. Mississippi is just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games against teams in the SEC. The Rebels are just 2-5 ATS after a win and just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. Alabama is the best team in the country and they have been dominating the teams they've played so far this year. They will do it again here and I see another blowout win.
Allen Eastman
Strike Point Sports
3-Unit Play. Take #116 Toledo (+10) over Miami (noon, Saturday, Sept. 15)
This Toledo team is good and they are going to jump up and bite a Miami team that is ripe for the picking. Miami was an extremely fortunate team last year. Yes, they looked unreal in their destroying of Notre Dame, but in other games they won, they won by the skin of their teeth (See Syracuse vs Miami). The Hurricanes are not a dominant football team, and they shouldn't be favored by this many points against a Toledo team that won't be scared to knock Miami around. The turnover chain has lost its luster as this is a Miami team that has lost four of their last five games dating back to last year. Toledo got a week off before this game. They have had two weeks to prepare for one of their biggest games of the season, and you know their home crowd will be electric. Miami could win this game, but don't be surprised to see Toledo come away with the outright win.
3-Unit Play. Take #169 Houston (-1.5) over Texas Tech (4:15 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Houston looks good, and they will continue to look good against Texas Tech. The Cougars destroyed an Arizona team that was supposed to give them a tough game. Now they get another team with a solid offense, but in our opinion, not as good as Houston's. The Cougars can beat you with different options on the offensive side of the football, and Texas Tech won't have an answer. A non-conference opponent does not scare Houston as they are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 non-conference games and they are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 road games. Take the Cougars here as they win 44-37.
NFL Plays:
3-Unit Play. Take #282 San Francisco (-5.5) over Detroit (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Detroit stinks. We hit big time against them in their opener and now we are jumping all over a San Fran team that will look much better here than they did against the Vikings. The 49ers gave a Super Bowl contender all they could handle in their first game of the season, losing 24-16 on the road. That final is absolutely something to build on. Yes, it was Jimmy G's first loss as a starter, but it was a game you can learn from. The Lions are nowhere near as good as the Vikings, and Jimmy G will get back on that winning track. San Fran is 4-2 ATS in the six games that Garappolo has started while the Lions are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 September games. Take the 49ers in this one as they win 31-20.
3-Unit Play. Take #274 New York Jets (-3) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
We love the Jets. We loved them Week 1, hitting our 7-Unit play on them, and we love them Week 2 as well. Miami is a gritty, gutsy team, but this Jets team believes in each other, and they believe they can win. This Jets offense is better than people think. Their wide receiving core is solid, and they have the ability to run the ball if need be. Look for this game to not be a runaway Jets victory like Week 1 was, but a Jets win and cover nonetheless. The Jets defense is going to give Miami fits. They are athletic, and they play with a motor that just keeps going. The Miami offense will struggle to ever get on track. New York knows that they have an opportunity to battle in the AFC East. They are better than the Dolphins and the Bills, and if there was ever a year to knock off the Pats this would be the one. We aren't saying they will, but again, they are better than people think. Lay the points in this one as the Jets win 24-16.
3-Unit Play. Take #287 New York Giants (+3) over Dallas (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
The Giants played one of the best teams in football and actually held their own. If it wasn't' for a late fumble, a silly interception off of a helmet and a dropped punt late in the fourth. Dallas is not a good football team and they will lose this game outright. This is a Dallas team with no big time tight end and no dynamic wide out to give the Giants secondary fits. Dallas will struggle to get to 17 points and the Giants will get to 20-24 points. The Giants offense had stretches of solid football against Jacksonville and it will be much easier in this game. Take the points here as the Giants win 24-17.
7-Unit Play. Take #269 Houston (-2) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
The Texans were in a tough spot week 1. They had to play the New England Patriots and actually played them to a close game, losing 27-20. Watson was rusty, and understandably so, coming off a long time off due to his knee injury. He, and the Texans offense will look much better this weekend. It would be much better if Marcus Marriota was not under center for the Titans, but even with him playing we still love the Texans. Houston is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings with Tennessee, while the Titans are an awful 1-5 ATS in their last six September home games. Houston will look much more efficient on the offensive side of the football. Lamar Miller will find success running the ball and Watson will look more like last year's version, than the Week 1 version. This is a big early season game for both teams as neither wants to start 0-2. The Texans had a legitimate chance to win that Pats game, and they will win this one. Look for this game to end with a Texans 27-17 victory
3-Unit Play. Take #275 Philadelphia (-3) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Philly should have lost to Atlanta Week 1, but they won't have that look about them this week. The Eagles shook off a little rust, and have had plenty of time to prepare for a Bucs team that actually looked much better than they are. This is an absolute letdown spot for the Bucs as they come crashing back to earth following their upset win over the Saints. Yes, Tampa Bay looked dynamic torching the Saints for a plethora of points, but that won't be the case against a much better Philly defense. The Eagles know how to get teams to play their style of football and they will force their will on the Bucs. Don't be surprised to see this final finish at half of what the Bucs Week 1 total was. Look for this to be a Philly 21-13 victory.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
Saturday September 15th 2018-
CFB-
5 Unit Play Take #126 Syracuse +3 over Florida State (12:00pm est):
Florida State needed a lot of luck to beat FCS foe Samford last week at home as the Seminoles trailed the entire game until a scoring a touchdown with with just four minutes left in the contest. FSU was also out-gained in the game despite the fact they ran more plays on offense than Samford. The biggest difference in the game came though in the +4 turnover differential for FSU which is what likely saved them from being upset. This was the 2nd straight disappointing outcome for the Seminoles to begin the 2018 season as they were trounced by a 24-3 score at home to Virginia Tech in their season opener. It's year one under new head coach Willie Taggart and first year head coaches can struggle in their opening season as they make major changes which appears to be what's going on with Florida State right now.
It's year three for Syracuse head coach Dino Babers and there's lots of signs things are going in the right direction. The Orange come in with a 2-0 start and have scored 117 points in their first two games. They actually could have even better numbers if they hadn't lost their starting quarterback Eric Dungey in the middle part of their opening game. Without Dungey in the lineup the Syracuse offense slowed way down but when he returned later in the contest the Orange offense once again looked unstoppable. Syracuse looked like a team that was ready to take off last season as in the middle of the year they beat Clemson and then nearly upset Miami Florida and Florida State with both games coming on the road and all played during a three game stretch. They did lose Dungey after that game to a season ending injury and with his loss they ended up dropping their last three games of the season. This is a team that loves to play fast and that edge is magnified when playing inside the Carrier Dome which where this game will be played with a noon start time on Saturday and all that should be a nice edge for the Orange.
Take Syracuse plus the points.
5 Unit Play Take #131 Rutgers +3 over Kansas (12:00pm est):
The wrong team is favored in this one. This point spread is basically saying these two teams/programs are about even which isn't the case. The Scarlet Knights play in one of the toughest divisions in CFB where their blowout losses to the likes of Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State and Ohio State makes them look worse than they really are. This is a team that went 3-2 last year (4-1 ATS) in conference games against the rest of the league. They came into the 2018 season and easily beat Texas State 35-7 in their season opener. They took one of their annual beatings last week to Ohio State but make no mistake about it this Rutgers team is the best one yet for 3rd year head coach Chris Ash.
The Kansas Jayhawks won their first FBS game since 2016 last week and ended their 46 game road losing streak as well as they beat Central Michigan 31-7. Before we give Kansas too much credit there's a couple key points. The CMU team that they beat last week is WAY down this year after losing a ton of starters and experience. CMU also gift wrapped the game for the Jayhawks as they turned the football over six times in the game (-6 turnover margin). The game was also just 7-0 at the half as Kansas struggled to move the football. Keep in mind also that Kansas lost their season opener to an FCS foe, were sacked 6 times in that game and were gained less than 60 yards rushing in game while averaging just 1.8 yards per carry.
Take Rutgers plus the points here.
4 Unit Play Take #169 Houston -1 over Texas Tech (4:15pm est):
Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury is in his 6th season as head coach of the Red Raiders. In these so called toss-up games lined between -4 and +4 he's went 4-13 against the spread at TTU. Time and time again Texas Tech has failed to live up to expectations including in their season opener this year where they were drilled by an average Ole Miss team 47-27. The Rebels went up and down the field on the Red Raiders defense averaging over 9 yards per play in the game.
Year number two for Houston head coach Major Applewhite and things are looking up for the Cougars. They come in off a 45-18 thrashing last week of Arizona in a game that wasn't even that close as the Cougars led 38-0 early in the 2nd half before calling off the dogs in the game. This Houston program has been the exact opposite of Texas Tech as they've usually played above their heads in what was considered to be evenly matched opponents going 5-1 ATS their last 6 games lined between -5 and +5. The Cougars switched quarterbacks late last season to D'Eriq King and they've won 5 of their 6 regular season games with him behind center.
Take Houston here.
3 Unit Play Take #206 Utah +5.5 over Washington (10:00pm est):
No team has been more dangerous when facing a ranked foe as an underdog/small favorite (-3 or lower) the last 6 years than the Utah Utes. Utah has covered the spread each of the last 7 times in this role when facing a ranked team and they are 13-1 overall the last 14 times. They've looked very good in their first two games of the season especially on the defensive side of the football as they've allowed 10 points or less in both games. Utah should be extra motivated for this game here as they've lost back to back heartbreakers the last two years to Washington including last season when the Huskies somehow scored 10 points in the last 58 seconds to steal the 33-30 game and are 3-0 ATS against Washington the last three years. This is also of the toughest places to play in CFB and it should be even more difficult here with this being a night game.
Take Utah plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #114 Massachusetts +4 over Florida International (7:30pm est):
UMass is the better of these two teams this year. They look worse than they are because they've had to play two teams (Georgia Southern) so far who are loaded and have a lot of guys back. That won't be the case in this one as Florida International lost a lot of players from last year's squad. FIU was able to pull out a big come from behind win last week at ODU in a game they were getting beat badly in early. I like this UMass squad and think they have a big edge here at quarterback.
Take Massachusetts plus the points here.
Expert College Football Picks History:
Doc's Sports
4 Unit Play. Take #148 Wisconsin Badgers -21.5 over BYU Cougars (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 15 ABC) We have had great success using Wisconsin in this matchup, hitting big plays with the Badgers in their last two meetings with the Cougars. BYU's opening victory against Arizona has been greatly devalued since Arizona got blown out last week against Houston, and they are just not very good. Wisconsin went to Provo last year and tore apart BYU, with QB Alex Hornibrook having a career day by completing 18 of 19 passes for a quarterback rating of 277.4 (career high by far). BYU still has major issues on offense, and this is the game in which Wisconsin will finally open up the playbook and actually try to score points instead of just running the ball into 8-man fronts. BYU is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Wisconsin is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after an ATS loss in their previous game.8 Unit Play. Take #163 Tulane Green Wave -3.5 over UAB Blazers (1p.m., Saturday, September 15 Facebook) NONCONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR UAB decided to bring back football for some reason after a two-year absence, but I just do not believe they can compete with teams from the American Athletic Conference. UAB is -77.5 ATS in their last 4 lined games and have lost 4 straight games against Tulane. The Green Wave are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 nonconference games. Tulane is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against UAB. Tulane just missed out on being bowl eligible last year and with Ohio State on deck this is a must win game for them in their hopes of reaching 6 wins. Tulane returns a ton of experience on offense led by QB Bank and WR Encalade. They should be able to pick apart the Blazers on defense and I just do not believe UAB will be able to keep pace. Tulane pulls away in the second half to win this game by double digits.
4 Unit Play. Take #166 Baylor Bears -6 over Duke Blue Devils (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 15 FS1) I felt the oddsmakers were begging you to take Northwestern last week against Duke, and the same is true this week. How can a Baylor team that went 1-11 last year be this big of a favorite against Duke? Well, for starters Duke will be without their all-everything QB Daniel Jones, who suffered a broken collarbone last week against Northwestern. All 21 points Duke scored last week where when he was in the game. They will also be without CB Mark Gilbert. Generally, injuries are overrated in handicapping UNLESS it involves the quarterback position. Duke was outgained and out first-downed last week, so their 21-7 victory is a little misleading.
Baylor returns a ton of experience from last year and hung with Duke in Durham in 2017. They have two quarterbacks with playing experience in 2018 and a nice staple of running backs. It will be imperative that they do not let QB Quentin Harris beat them with his legs. Baylor has fallen off the cliff since Art Briles was replaced as head coach, but they have a solid coach in Matt Rhule and they have already surpassed their win total from last year. Baylor is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less that 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
4 Unit Play. Take #174 Arkansas Razorbacks -7 over North Texas Mean Green (4p.m., Saturday, September 15 SECN) The Razorbacks should be able to get back on track at home against North Texas on Saturday. This will be the first true road game for the Mean Green, and they are just 8-16 ATS in their last 24 games as a road underdog. Arkansas had a big lead last week before Colorado State rallied to win. This will be a step up for North Texas, and they are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Arkansas losing last week makes them a play this week, as Coach Chad Morris will have his team's attention all week and will play a full 4 quarters on Saturday.
4 Unit Play. Take #206 Utah Utes +5.5 over Washington Huskies (10p.m., Saturday, September 15 ESPN) I believe Utah is the team to beat in the PAC-12 South, and getting points with them at home is a prime opportunity for a big play. Washington will be traveling for the second time in three weeks to open the season, and this will be another hostile environment. Utah is 6-3 ATS as a home underdog and had Washington beat last year in Seattle before a late rally by the Huskies allowed them to emerge victorious. Washington is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Utah is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing during the month of September.
4 Unit Play. Take #210 San Diego State Aztecs +6 over Arizona State Sun Devils (10:30p.m., Saturday, September 15 CBSSN) Everyone is drinking the Herm Edwards Kool-Aid after beating Michigan State last week and I feel this number is inflated. SDSU won in Tempe last year by double digits, and I feel they have a good chance to win this game straight-up. Arizona State has Washington on deck, and playing at his half empty stadium is always a tough task to get the adrenalin flowing. SDSU is not as strong as they have been in the past couple of years, but they still play sound football and like to control the game with a strong running attack and solid defense and that should be able to chip away at the clock and keep them in this game for 60 minutes. ASU is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against MWC teams. SDSU is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss in their previous game.
Robert Ferringo
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS1-Unit Play. Take #117 Hawaii (+6.5) over Army (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 15)
The only reason that this isn't a much bigger play is the tough travel and time difference for Hawaii. But right now the Rainbow Warriors are on a rush and I think that they will keep it rolling. Army has had an awesome two-year run (by their standards). But this year's team isn't nearly as good as last year's squad. They were only a touchdown favorite over Liberty last week, and they let the Flames hang around in that game. Hawaii already went on the road and beat Colorado State as a big underdog. And I think that they are good enough to do the same here.
1-Unit Play. Take #125 Florida State (-2.5) over Syracuse (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 15)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 68.0 Florida State at Syracuse (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 15)
Look, until I see Syracuse win a game like this I'm not sure they can. Florida State has not looked good at all. I have questions about Willie Taggart in this program. And they don't have the top-end talent that we've seen from the Seminoles in years past. But I still think they are better than Syracuse. The Orange are going to score points. But can they stop anyone? They allowed 41 points to Western Michigan in the opener. Can they get stops against Florida State? Can they get enough stops to win this game outright? Syracuse has been competitive against top-end teams that have taken them lightly. But if you look back over their last three years they have flopped when facing teams that they are expected to compete with. Syracuse is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 games with a spread of a touchdown or less. I think Florida State will get this win and I see both teams easily scoring at least 30 points apiece.
3-Unit Play. Take #127 Oklahoma (-17.5) over Iowa State (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 15)
It's revenge time. Iowa State pulled a huge upset over Oklahoma in Norman last year, shaking off a 14-0 deficit to win outright as a 31-point underdog. Oklahoma definitely has not forgotten about that game and they will not take the Cyclones lightly. The Sooners have looked dominating through the first two weeks, scoring 102 points and crushing decent Florida Atlantic and UCLA teams. They got backdoored last week but I think that they will take care of business in this game. Iowa State had their first game cancelled. That meant that last week's rivalry game at Iowa was their season opener. It didn't go well. The Cyclones only scored three points and lost by 10. Now they have to pick themselves up and take on an angry, more talented Oklahoma squad. Further, Iowa State quarterback Kyle Kempt got hurt in the fourth quarter of that Iowa game. I think he's going to play. But he's not 100 percent and there is no telling whether or not he will play the whole game or how effective he'll be. If Iowa State is forced to go to a backup quarterback then they could get buried. I know this is a big number. But I think OU has a big motivation and wants to make a big statement.
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #127 Oklahoma (-10.5) over Iowa State (Noon) AND
Take #154 Auburn (-3) over LSU (3:30 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #131 Rutgers (+3) over Kansas (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 15)
Kansas shouldn't be favored over anyone. Anywhere. At any time. They already lost to an FCS team this year. Sure, they won big last week against Central Michigan. But they only needed six turnovers to do it. If Rutgers doesn't turn the ball over more than twice then I think they will win this game. They are a better team, in my opinion, and I think they will rebound from a disappointing effort last week. The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five nonconference games and are 6-2 ATS after a loss of three touchdowns or more. Kansas is 2-9 ATS after a win and they are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 nonconference games. I'll take the kids from Jersey.
1-Unit Play. Take #140 Virginia (-3.5) over Ohio (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
2-Unit Play. Take #154 Auburn (-10) over LSU (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
The home team has absolutely dominated this series, winning five straight and eight of the last nine meetings between these two. The home team is also an outstanding 8-1 against the spread in those nine games and is 16-2 straight up dating back to 2000. Despite the talent on both sides of the field this series really hasn't featured many close games. The average margin of victory over the last 10 years is 15.1 points per game and three of the last nine meetings have been decided by less than one score. When you put it into that context laying out nearly 10 points doesn't seem like such a stretch. Auburn is the better team, playing at home, with revenge. I think that historical norms will hold in this one and I think that Auburn will make up for last year's gut-wrenching loss - remember, they were up 20-0 on the road in that one - with a blowout home win here.
3-Unit Play. Take #158 Northern Illinois (-14) over Central Michigan (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Northern Illinois has lost to Central Michigan four straight years. I don't think they are very happy about it. And I think they are going to do something about it. They have the better offensive and defensive lines and they are a more tested group after games against Utah and Iowa. I think this is the weakest Central Michigan team that they've had in some time and I think that this team is going to struggle even to make it to a bowl game. There haven't been a ton of blowouts in this series. But double-digit favorites in this series are 4-0 ATS over the last decade. So when it is supposed to happen it usually does happen. I like NIU to get back in the win column in this series with a major victory.
3-Unit Play. Take #163 Tulane (-3.5) over UAB (1 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Last year UAB had a dream season. They came out of nowhere after two years of no program, won eight games, pulled a bunch of upsets, and got themselves to a bowl game. It really was one of the best stories in college football. But I think that this year is the letdown year. They got bombed in the second half at Coastal Carolina last week and were torn up on the ground, allowing 296 rushing yards. They are No. 111 in the country in rushing defense and are now facing a tough option attack of Tulane. This is a pretty solid Tulane team. They nearly took out Wake Forest in their opener and Willie Fritz is determined to get this team back to a bowl game for just the second time since 2002. This is his best team yet and I think that they are good enough to go on the road and get this win.
2-Unit Play. Take #168 Florida (-20.5) over Colorado State (4 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Colorado State was down 27-9 at home against Arkansas, a team that is worse than Florida. Now the Rams have to travel across the country, play in stifling humidity, and face a Florida team that has to be pissed off after losing their SEC opener. This is a really bad setup for Colorado State. I don't think that this team is good at all and, frankly, they should be 0-3 right now. Dan Mullen is going to have his guys ready to play and I think that the Gators are going to absolutely bury the needle here.
3-Unit Play. Take #174 Arkansas (-7) over North Texas (4 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Look, I am pot-committed to Arkansas. I still believe that this team is better than its numbers suggests. They were up 27-9 last week in Colorado State before throwing up on themselves in the fourth quarter. That loss was garbage. And I don't think that they are going to lose two in a row to non-Power 5 teams. North Texas is good at what they do. They throw the ball a ton and they try to spread teams out and they want to score, score, score. But they don't have the depth or talent to go toe-to-toe with an SEC opponent for 60 minutes. Last year they were blown out at a middling Iowa team. Two years ago they went to Florida and lost 32-0 to a not-good Florida team. The only other decent teams that they've faced the past two seasons - Florida Atlantic twice last year and Louisiana Tech in 2016 - beat the Mean Green by 24, 38 and 21 points. North Texas is 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games as a double-digit underdog. In my opinion they should be a double-digit dog in this game. Arkansas head coach Chad Morris knows this North Texas team. He's faced them three years in a row and he went 3-0 SU and ATS against the Mean Green. That was with SMU. He definitely has better talent at Arkansas than he did at SMU. North Texas is 2-0 and has some big numbers. But they played a bad SMU team and a horrible Incarnate Word squad. This is a major step up, on the road, and I don't think they will be close.
2-Unit Play. Take #191 Missouri (-6) over Purdue (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Purdue had a lot of fun last year. New coach Jeff Brohm helped them to seven wins, a bowl game, and a bowl win. He made the Boilermakers competitive in the Big Ten almost overnight. But they still have a long way to go. This year's team isn't nearly as good as last year's, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. They lost at home to Northwestern and then turned around and lost outright as a two-touchdown favorite to Eastern Michigan (huh?) last week. They are not throwing the ball well and they can't seem to stop the pass. That's a problem against Drew Lock and the Tigers offense. Missouri is another team that is playing with revenge this week. They got hammered 35-3 at home by the Boilermakers last year. They would love to dole out a similar beating. The Tigers walked through a pretty solid Wyoming defense last week and I think they will do the same to Purdue. Also, this Tigers defense has been outstanding since head coach Barry Odom gave up making the calls to Ryan Walters last year. Since that move they've surrendered just 21 points per game. They are scoring 46 per game during that same stretch. I will take the better team with the revenge motivation.
3-Unit Play. Take #202 Texas (-3) over USC (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
USC is kind of a mess. I have never been a big fan of Clay Helton's and I think he is going to struggle this year in an improving Pac-12. I also think they are really going to struggle in this game after getting beaten up by Stanford last week. The Trojans offensive line has been terrible. And if they can't dominate the trenches - which they won't - then I don't think that their quarterback and skill position players are good enough to go out and get a road win against a somewhat desperate Texas team. The Longhorns got backdoored last week against Tulsa. But for the first 2.5 quarters they looked focused and disciplined. The Longhorns have the more experienced team. They are also playing at home and they have revenge for an OT loss at USC last year. If they nearly beat the Trojans with Sam Bradford last year I think they can beat the Trojans (in Austin) without him this year.
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Indian Cowboy
6-Unit Play. Take #154. Auburn -9.5 vs LSU (Saturday @ 3:30p.m. est).Let's talk about LSU first. They are a very young team and the fact that they beat Miami should be taken with a grain of salt because the Hurricanes are completely overrated and the step up in competition to Auburn will show full well in this spot. Look, Auburn lost to this LSU team last year 27-23 when they gave up 10 unanswered fourth-quarter points. The revenge angle is real in college football and we expect Auburn to extract that revenge by laying a beat down on the Tigers in front of their home crowd. We saw what Auburn was capable of on defense as they held Washington - a high scoring team - to just 16 points. Auburn will have a game plan in place that will attack LSU's weakness thanks to the master game-planner, Gus Malzahn. This game will go a long way in determining who will get into the SEC title game, but we believe that Auburn is the right play in this spot.
5-Unit Play. Take #168. Florida -19.5 vs Colorado State (Saturday @ 4:00p.m. est).
Florida lost to Kentucky last week for the first time in 31 years. How embarrassed do you think the Gator players are feeling right now? The Gators are a program rich with history, so we expect them to bounce back in a big way and trounced Colorado State. Look, Colorado State is the perfect opponent for the Gators to take their frustrations out on. The Rams are getting 2 million to come play in the swamp and have given up 550 yards rushing in two games. If the Gators can't exploit that (which we expect them to do) then they have more problems, then they lead on. Colorado State managed to beat Arkansas last week at home after winning the fourth quarter 17-0. Florida knows they can't take them lightly, but they also know if they play their game and execute, the Rams shouldn't even be on the same field as them.
3-Unit Play. Take #131. Under 44.5 Rutgers vs Kansas (Saturday @ 12:00p.m. est).
Rutgers is a bad team. Kansas may be just as bad. So, the general rule of thumb when two bad teams play is that it's likely to be a bad game. Look, Rutgers gave up 52 points to Ohio State, but that was always going to happen. Kansas snapped a 46-game road losing streak by beating Central Michigan 31-7. Both teams are defensive minded (if you can believe it), so in this spot, with a freshman QB at the helm for Rutgers and a Kansas team that is feeling rejuvenated on both sides of the ball, especially on defense, we can expect a lower scoring game. Look, Kansas will want to win back-to-back games for the first time since 2011. They'll go all out and that means turning in another massive defensive performance. Rutgers doesn't have the firepower to cover the 70% of the total on their own, so we like the under in this spot.
3-Unit Play. Take #108. Tennessee -31.5 vs UTEP (Saturday @ 12:00p.m. est).
We view this as one of those morale-boosting games for a program that hasn't been prominent since Peyton Manning left. Look, Tennessee will want to demolish UTEP in this spot to keep the players believing in the cause and to keep them happy before a big showdown with Florida. The Volunteers put up 59 last week against ETSU, and UTEP might be worse, as they've lost 14 straight games, which is the longest losing streak in the FBS. They also gave up 52 to UNLV of all teams, so Tennessee should have their way offensively. Not to mention, they likely won't give up 24 points like UNLV did, so it's the perfect recipe for a Volunteer blowout win.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS3 Unit Play. Take #169 Houston -1.5 over Texas Tech (4:15p.m., Saturday September 15 FOX)
Last year Texas Tech beat Houston in Houston by 3-points and Saturday night I see revenge being served as the Cougars will take this game in Jones AT&T Stadium. Texas Tech didn't impress me at all against Ole Miss and if they get behind early this game could get ugly. I do believe the better defensive unit on the field will be the Houston Cougars and that is why they win this game against Tech. Texas Tech is 3-7 ATS last 10 home games while the Cougars have covered 13 out 19 non-conference games.
3 Unit Play. Take #196 Mississippi St -33 over UL Lafayette (7:30p.m., Saturday September 15)
Yes this is a huge number but the UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns will be in for a very long evening. The Bulldogs will hit the half century mark against the Cajuns defense and I don't see the Cajuns going toe-to-toe on offense against Mississippi St. Ragin Cajuns are 1-5 ATS against non-conference opponents and the Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games.
6 Unit Play. Take #203 Over 58.5 Ohio St at TCU (8:00p.m., Saturday September 15 ABC)
Last week we had UNLV over as our 6-Unit College Football total and they put up 52 points themselves and Saturday night at AT&T Stadium I see the Ohio St Buckeyes hitting the 50 mark against a TCU team that struggled against SMU. I know TCU beat SMU 42-12 but in the first half the Horn Frogs made tons of mistakes and if they make mistakes against Ohio St I see the Buckeyes turning those mistakes to touchdowns. Too much offense on the Buckeyes side and TCU will need to go toe-to-toe on offense if they want to hang around Saturday night. Give me the OVER!!! Ohio St is 8-3 O/U following a SU win and the TCU Horn Frogs are 9-4 O/U in non-conference games.
4 Unit Play. Take #206 Utah +5.5 over Washington (10:00p.m., Saturday September 8 ESPN)
Yes I know Washington has dominated this series winning 10 out 11 meetings but Utah has always played the Huskies tough and I see another tough game Saturday night. Last year Washington beat Utah in Washington 33-30 and it wouldn't shock me to see another 3-point winning in this meeting. We all know that the defense of Utah will be ready and if the Utes can make some key stops in the second half I see the Utes covering this number and maybe just maybe pulling off the upset. Give me the Utes plus the points at home late Saturday night. Washington is 0-4 AT in their last 4 road games and the underdog in this series is 5-0 ATS.
Tony George
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL 9/152 Units - #127 Oklahoma (-17.5) over Iowa State *12 Noon EST
Love the Sooners here in a revenge spot as ISU came into Norman last year with a 3rd string QB and beat OU soundly, so any thoughts of OU overlooking this game is unfounded. Everywhere I read that OU's defense is suspect and that they are no good and this is the first road game and Ames is a snake pit to play in and this is on upset alert, I am not in that majority. The Cyclones played their first game last week as week 1 was cancelled and it showed, 3 points against Iowa in an emotional loss in an in-state rivalry game. ISU looked like total dog crap in that game, and word is a 2nd string QB starting this game for ISU as Kempt is listed as doubtful. OU will not let Iowa State beat them with a backup QB 2 years in a row. OU crushed both Florida Atlantic and UCLA, and while they lost their stud RB, they have 3 more in the wings that can play for anyone and this offense will not miss a beat as OU is very explosive and have numerous playmakers including a stud QB in Murray. ISU cannot trade punches on the scoreboard, plain and simple as OU's defense is the better defense. This line should be 3 TD's, good value in a big number.
6 Units - #203 Ohio State (-12.5) over TCU *8 EST - TOP PLAY
In my opinion, Ohio State is the best team in the NCAA right now, better than Bama. They are elite at almost every position, and Haskins at QB is a massive playmaker and vastly better than anything TCU has seen all season or has to offer on their side. TCU's offense is sluggish at best and the vaunted defense that TCU is known for is average at best, and pedestrian more likely against the offensive attack OSU will unleash. This game is in Dallas at Jerry World, so TCU is a 30-minute bus ride from home, but OSU will have a strong contingent at this game. TCUC looked bad against SMU and their young OL will struggle against OSU front 4 on defense limiting their passing game. Patterson a good coach for TCU and Urban Meyer is still at home eating popcorn, but you simply cannot ignore the talent differential. Like OSU here by 3 TDS.
2 Units - #169 Houston ( -1.5) over Texas Tech *4:15 EST
Texas Tech plays no defense, Texas Tech is shuffling as many as 3 QBs in a game, and Kliff Kingsbury is a BAD head coach and his team is simply outmanned and will be outcoached here against Houston in what should be a shootout. Tech opened at -3 and it looks to be a take on them grabbing 4 points of opening line swing but TT struggles in big games against good offenses and make too many mistakes and are totally undisciplined. Houston just railed Arizona and beat up cross town rival Rice after struggling in the first half of that game and head coach Applewhite is well in tune to the Lubbock Texas home field advantage / snakepit scenario since he played there as the QB of Texas and since he became a CFB coach. I cannot trust Kliff Kingsbury in a big game against a team comparable in talent, he finds ways to lose, takes unnecessary risks, and has no stud QB this year that can bail them out late as in the past, at least not yet.
3 Units - #130 Nebraska (-11.5) over Troy *12 Noon EST
A late practice report from an insider has me moving on NU despite the 4-point line steam up from the opener at -7.5. Yes, Nebraska has Michigan on deck but it is calling all cars in Lincoln for this one as Scott Frost has given backup QB Bunch 100% of the snaps in practice and he can move the Husker offense just fine, which is 2 deep at RB and a bevy of WR weapons as well. Huskers in foul mood after handing Colorado the game last week in the final minute with a stupid personal foul penalty which cost them the win, and spotting them 14 points on turnovers in the first 5 minutes of her game. Martinez, the Husker QB and future superstar for them, will not see action as a grade 1 MCL strain needs another week to heal and they want him for Michigan, and word is out of Lincoln behind the scenes Frost is pulling out all stops for a big win and will drop the hammer. A Husker win by 2 TDs here in Lincoln and get some momentum headed into Ann Arbor where they no doubt will lose, but want to make a good showing and confidence is needed. You can expect a very focused and hungry Husker team Saturday. Troy played 1 good team in Boise State and were eviscerated in that game.
Vernon Croy
6-Unit Play. Take #165 Duke +6.5 over Baylor (Saturday, September 15th at 3:30 PM ET)Take Duke ATS as my 6-Unit CFB Smash for Saturday afternoon. This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and I have Duke winning this game outright even with Harris under center. Harris actually gives the Blue Devils more versatility under center as he is a dual threat quarterback with his speed that Jones lacked. We also now gained 6 points because of Jones' broken collarbone so there is plenty of value here Saturday. Baylor has played nobody to start the season while Duke is coming off a dominant road win against Northwestern. The Blue Devils are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a win. Baylor is just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Play Duke ATS as we move to 26-11 with my last 37 college football plays.
Scott Spreitzer
6-Unit Play: Take 118 Army -6.5 over Hawaii (12 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)I'm laying the points with Army on Saturday. I'm fully aware that Hawaii has already seen one option attack and took care of business against Navy on the islands. But this will be their toughest test yet. I expect the Army triple-option to prove too much for UH in the second half, and the start time sure doesn't help the islanders as this will be a 6 AM start as far as their body clocks are concerned. Finally, and most importantly, Hawaii has become an overvalued team due to their SU success. We saw it as an inflated favorite last week and we're seeing is here where they would be an even bigger dog before the season began. Hawaii is better than advertised in August, but not ready to hang this number in our betting opinion. I'm laying the points with Army on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
4-Unit Play: Take 136 Pittsburgh +4 over Ga Tech (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
I'm grabbing the points with the Pitt Panthers on Saturday. We're getting value thanks to a second half Pittsburgh meltdown a week ago. Pitt lost 51-6 to Penn State, but trailed just 7-6 with less than a minute to go in the first half. They allowed a late TD and went into mistake-mode for the rest of the game. Turnovers and blunders by all units gave Penn State an open door and the Nittany Lions took full advantage. Pitt actually out-rushed PSU and held their in-state rivals to 390 total yards, hardly enough to legitimately put 51 points on the board without help from a mistake-prone opponent. The Panthers are on a 12-5 ATS run after allowing over 40 points. Meanwhile, Ga Tech is laying points on the road. The Jackets have not even won a road game outright since November 26, 2016, going 0-6 SU and failing to cover four in a row. The value lies with the Pitt Panthers. We're grabbing the points with Pittsburgh on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 151 Miami-Oh., +13 over Minnesota (3:30 p.m., Sat. Sept 15)
I'm taking the points with Miami-Ohio on Saturday. I'm still not sold on the Golden Gophers. I went against them last week and watched Fresno State blow the game with dumb play-calling and player miscues. The Gophers gained just 307 total yards on 4.3 yards per play and ran for less than 3 yards per carry. They took advantage of a +2 turnover margin and a Fresno halfback option pass INT in the endzone for the win (extremely dumb play-call from the FSU staff). Minnesota enters with the 92nd ranked pass offense even though one of their two games came against lowly New Mexico State. Miami-Ohio is off to a 0-2 start and we went against them with Marshall on our Docsports.com Vegas Beat podcast. They have played well defensively and only trailed Cincy by 7 points until a couple of late Bearcat scores. We don't get excited about a game or two. We also don't overadjust our power ratings based off the first two games of a season. And our power numbers said Minnesota should be an 8.5-point favorite in this game when we made our ratings before last week's games (something we recommend doing - making numbers two weeks in advance). The Gus Ragland passing game was off last week, we'll look for him to bounce back on Saturday. We're grabbing the points with Miami-Ohio on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 148 Wisconsin -21.5 over BYU (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
I'm laying the points with Wisconsin on Saturday. The Badgers lollygagged through their first two games, winning both by 31 points apiece, while failing to cover either spread. But this is a spot where they won't lose focus, taking on a traditionally strong program and getting ready for the conference season which begins next week. BYU's win over Arizona means very little now that we know the Wildcats are an absolute mess. And last weekend, BYU lost to Cal and gained just 287 total yards and less than 3 yards per carry on the ground. BYU QB Mangum completed just 22 of 41 passes with 1 TD and 2 INTs. BYU is on a 1-6 ATS slide against teams with a winning record and we'll go against them here. I'm laying the points with Wisconsin on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 173 North Texas +7 over Arkansas (4 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
I'm taking the points with North Texas on Saturday. The Hogs are off an ultra-tough loss to Colorado State and have a date with Auburn up next. And while it's not the same staff, Arkansas has covered just 7 of their last 21 games. North Texas should be able to move the football and score! QB Mason Fine is on fire, passing for more than 900 yards with a 7-1, TD-INT ratio. Arkansas couldn't slow the CSU passing game last week when it counted and we don't believe they'll slow this offense. North Texas has covered 8 of their last 11 non-conference games and they're on a 5-0 ATS run against teams from the SEC. Arkansas is on a 0-6-2 ATS slide outside of SEC play and they're 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. I'm taking the points with North Texas on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 202 Texas -3.5 over USC (8 p.m., Saturday, September 15)
I'm laying the points with Texas on Saturday night. Neither team could muster a running game in last year's 27-24 USC win in OT. The difference in the game turned out to be the passing of Trojan QB Sam Darnold. But he's off to the NFL and we don't like the look of the USC offense at the current time. USC failed to cover at home against UNLV and led by just five, 19-14 at the end of three quarters. USC allowed the Rebels to rush for 308 yards on 7.2 yards per carry and without any threat of a passing game. They gave up another 155 yards on 5.5 per carry in last week's 17-3 loss to Stanford. The Trojan offense has issues and was completely dismantled by the Cardinal after doing nothing for three quarters against outmanned UNLV. Meanwhile, Texas is as balanced as it gets. They can offer USC's defense a lot to deal with both on the ground and through the air. Last week was a tough, somewhat sandwich spot for the Longhorns, but that's behind them and they put the game with Tulsa in the win column. At 1-1 this has become an even bigger home game for HC Tom Herman. And we note USC is on a 3-13-1 ATS slide overall, including 0-6 ATS in non-conference games. We'll lay the points with Texas on Saturday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 206 Utah +5 over Washington (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
I'm grabbing the points with the Utah Utes on Saturday night. The Huskies are having issues in the ground game and the lack of balance is causing some problems in the passing game. After tossing 62 TD passes with just 14 INTs the last two seasons combined, UW QB Jake Browning has just 3 TDs with 3 INTs through two games this season. He's also seen his completion rate fall from 68.5% to under 60% in 2018. No ground game to worry about means one of the nation's best defenses can focus on harassing Browning. Utah ranks #1 in total yards and passing yards allowed and 21st against the run. They completely dismantled Northern Illinois in week-1. This has been a close series of late and we expect another one here. We'll back Utah plus the points as the underdog gains its 6th straight cover in this series. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Alan Harris
3 Unit Play. Take #108 Tennessee -30.5 over UTEP (12:00 PM, Saturday, September 15, SEC Network)UTEP has posted a 1-5 ATS record in their last six non-conference games and they have gone 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss. They have also failed to cover the number in seven of their last nine games following a game where they allowed 40 points or more and they are an awful 0-4-1 ATS in their last five road games. We have UTEP under 2.5 wins for the season and from what we've seen from them in losses to Northern Arizona and UNLV, we're not sure that they are going to win a game all season long. Throw in the fact that they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games versus a team from the SEC and we're going to lay the big number here with the Vols to get the home win and cover in Knoxville on Saturday afternoon.
4 Unit Play. Take #114 Florida International -4 over UMass (7:30 PM, Saturday, September 15)
Florida International has posted a perfect 4-0-1 ATS record in their last five games following a game where they allowed 100 yards or less on the ground and they have gone an excellent 8-3-1 ATS in their last twelve games following a game where they allowed more than 280 yards through the air. UMass, on the other hand, has struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played in the month of September and they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Throw in the fact that the Minutemen are also 0-4 ATS in their last four games where they faced a Conference USA team while the Panthers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last fourteen at home versus a team with a losing record on the road and we're going to lay the points here with FIU to get the home win and cover in Miami on Saturday evening.
5 Unit Play. Take #145 Boise St +2.5 over Oklahoma St (3:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, ESPN)
The Boise St Broncos will look for their third win in a row to open their 2018 season when they hit the road to take on the Oklahoma St Cowboys at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, OK on Saturday afternoon. Boise has posted a perfect 4-0 ATS record in their last four non-conference games and they are an excellent 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win. They have also covered the number in four of their last five games following a game where they allowed 20 points or less and they are an impressive 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall going back into the 2017 season. Oklahoma St, on the other hand, has struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have failed to cover the number in five of their last seven games after allowing less than 170 yards through the air in their previous game. Throw in the fact that Boise is an insane 44-22 ATS in their last 66 road games and we're going to take the points with them here in a game that we have them winning outright in Stillwater on Saturday afternoon.
3 Unit Play. Take #153/154 LSU vs Auburn Under 45 (3:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, CBS)
LSU has posted a 6-1 record to the under in their last seven road games and they have gone an excellent 8-3 to the under in their last eleven games played in the month of September. They have also gone under the number in nine of their last thirteen games following an ATS loss and they are 20-8-1 to the under in their last 29 SEC games. Auburn has been an under team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone 7-1 to the under in their last eight home games versus a team with a winning record on the road and they are 8-2 to the under following an ATS loss. They have also been an under team when facing a team with a winning record, going 15-6-1 to the under in their last 22 games when they were in that spot. Throw in the fact that these two teams are a perfect 4-0 to the under in their last four meetings at Auburn and that's where we'll have our play as we expect both defensive units to play well in a low scoring game on Saturday afternoon.
4 Unit Play. Take #161 New Mexico -4 over New Mexico St (8:00 PM, Saturday, September 15)
The Lobos have posted a 4-1 ATS record in their last five games played in the month of September and they have that same 4-1 ATS record in their last five games played on an artificial surface. The Aggies, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss and they have that same 1-4 ATS record in their last five games following a game where they failed to score 20 points or more. They have also failed to cover the number in each of their last four home games and they are an awful 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. Throw in the fact that the road team has gone an impressive 10-4-1 ATS in the last fifteen head to head meetings between the two rivals and we're going to lay the points here with the Lobos to get the road win and cover in Las Cruces on Saturday night.
3 Unit Play. Take #172 Kansas St -21 over Texas-San Antonio (4:00 PM, Saturday, September 15)
Kansas St has posted a 4-1-1 ATS record in their last six games following an ATS loss and they have gone an excellent 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus a team from Conference USA. UTSA, on the other hand, has struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five versus a team from the Big 12. They have also failed to cover the number in five straight games following a straight up loss and they are an awful 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home. Throw in the fact that the Roadrunners are also 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall while the Wildcats are 4-1 ATS after gaining less than 275 total yards in their previous game and we're going to lay the big number here with K-State in a game that we have them winning in blowout fashion in Manhattan on Saturday afternoon.
4 Unit Play. Take #173 North Texas +7 over Arkansas (4:00 PM, Saturday, September 15, SEC Network)
North Texas has posted a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games following an ATS loss and they have that same 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games played on FieldTurf. They have also covered the number in five of their last six games following a game where they scored 40 points or more and they are an impressive 8-3 ATS in their last eleven road games. The Razorbacks, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 2-6-2 ATS in their last ten home games and they are just 3-8 ATS in their last eleven versus a team with a winning record. They have also failed to cover the number in twelve of their last sixteen games overall and they are an awful 0-6-2 ATS in their last eight non-conference games. Throw in the fact that the Mean Green are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus a team from the SEC and we're going to take the points with them here in a game that we think they have a decent chance to win outright in Fayetteville on Saturday afternoon.
3 Unit Play. Take #183/184 Arkansas St vs Tulsa Under 72 (7:00 PM, Saturday, September 15, CBS Sports Network)
Arkansas St has posted a 6-1 record to the under in their last seven games following a game where they allowed 40 points or more and they have gone an excellent 6-2 to the under in their last eight games following a straight up loss. Tulsa has been a bit of an under team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have stayed under the number in four of their last five games following a straight up loss and they are 6-2 to the under in their last eight games overall going back into the 2017 season. Throw in the fact that the Red Wolves are 15-7 to the under in their last 22 games played in the month of September and 31-15-1 to the under in their last 47 non-conference games and that's where we'll have our play in a game that our numbers have being played in the 60's in Tulsa on Saturday night.
4 Unit Play. Take #191 Missouri -6 vs Purdue (7:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, Big 10 Network)
Missouri has posted a 4-1 ATS record in their last five road games and they have that same 4-1 ATS record in their last five non-conference contests. They have also covered the number in five of their last seven games following a straight up win and they are an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with a winning % of .500 or lower. The Boilermakers, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 2-8 ATS in their last ten games where they faced a team with a winning record and they have failed to cover the number in nine of their last eleven games following a game where they gained more than 200 yards on the ground. Throw in the fact that Missouri is a lights out 9-2 ATS in their last eleven games overall going back to the middle of the 2017 season and we're going to lay the points with them here in a game that we have them winning by double digits in West Lafayette on Saturday night.
6 Unit Play. Take #196 Mississippi St -33 over UL-Lafayette (7:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, SEC Network)
The Mississippi St Bulldogs will look to open their 2018 season with three wins in a row when they take on the UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at Scott Field in Starkville, MS on Saturday night. The Bulldogs have posted a perfect 5-0 ATS record in their last five games where they faced a team with a winning % of .500 or higher and they have gone an excellent 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. They have also covered the number in seven of their last nine home games and they are an impressive 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games played in the month of September. UL-Lafayette, on the other hand, has struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games and they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games. They have also failed to cover the number in five of their last six games following a straight up win and they are an awful 0-4-1 ATS off a straight up win by 20 points or more. Throw in the fact that Mississippi St is a lights out 7-3 ATS in their last ten games overall and we're going to lay the big number with them here in a game that we have them winning in blowout fashion in Starkville on Saturday night.
5 Unit Play. Take #203 Ohio St -12.5 over TCU (8:00 PM, Saturday, September 15, ABC)
The Ohio St Buckeyes will look to win all three games without suspended head coach Urban Meyer when they take on the TCU Horned Frogs at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, TX on Saturday night. The Buckeyes have posted a 4-1 ATS record in their last five games where they faced a team with a winning record and they have gone an excellent 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games. They have also covered the number in four straight games following a game where they gained more than 475 yards of total offense and they have that same perfect 4-0 ATS record in their last four games overall. The Horned Frogs, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and they have that same 1-4 ATS record in their last five games following a straight up win. They have also failed to cover the number in four straight games versus a team with a winning record and they are an awful 2-10 ATS in their last twelve neutral site games. Throw in the fact that TCU is just 1-4 ATS in their last five versus a team from the Big 10 while Ohio St is 6-2 ATS in their last eight when facing a team from the Big 12 and we're going to lay the points here with the Buckeyes in a game that we have them winning in blowout fashion at Jerry World on Saturday night.
2 Unit Sides:
2 Unit Play. Take #109 Ball St +15 over Indiana (12:00 PM, Saturday, September 15, Big 10 Network)
2 Unit Play. Take #111 Temple +17 over Maryland (12:00 PM, Saturday, September 15, Big 10 Network)
2 Unit Play. Take #117 Hawaii +6.5 over Army (12:00 PM, Saturday, September 5, CBS Sports Network)
2 Unit Play. Take #136 Pittsburgh +4.5 over Georgia Tech (12:30 PM, Saturday, September 15)
2 Unit Play. Take #138 Notre Dame -13.5 over Vanderbilt (2:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, NBC)
2 Unit Play. Take #153 LSU +10 over Auburn (3:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, CBS)
2 Unit Play. Take #155 South Florida -10 over Illinois (3:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, Big 10 Network)
2 Unit Play. Take #197 UL-Monroe +27.5 over Texas A&M (7:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, SEC Network)
2 Unit Play. Take #206 Utah +5.5 over Washington (10:00 PM, Saturday, September 15, ESPN)
2 Unit Play. Take #209 Arizona St -5.5 over San Diego St (10:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, CBS Sports Network)
1 Unit Totals:
1 Unit Play. Take #115/116 Miami (FL) vs Toledo Over 57 (12:00 PM, Saturday, September 15, ESPN U)
1 Unit Play. Take #131/132 Rutgers vs Kansas Over 44 (12:00 PM, Saturday, September 15)
1 Unit Play. Take #135/136 Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh Over 54.5 (12:30 PM, Saturday, September 15)
1 Unit Play. Take #141/142 SMU vs Michigan Over 53.5 (3:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, Big 10 Network)
1 Unit Play. Take #155/156 South Florida vs Illinois Under 59 (3:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, Big 10 Network)
1 Unit Play. Take #159/160 Georgia Southern vs Clemson Over 47 (12:00 PM, Saturday, September 15, ESPN 2)
1 Unit Play. Take #209/210 Arizona St vs San Diego St Over 47.5 (10:30 PM, Saturday, September 15, CBS Sports Network)
Mike Davis
4-Unit Play. Take #117 Hawaii +6.5 over Army (Saturday, September 15th at 12:00 p.m)4-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 62 Hawaii at Army (Saturday, September 15th at 12:00 p.m)
This game is being played at 6:00 a.m. Hawaii time. That is obviously a big concern but the team has been in New York for a few days and their bodies will be acclimated to the time change. Hawaii has already faced Navy this year so they are familiar with the option offense they will see this week. Army is a solid football team but they are facing a high-powered offense in this game. Hawaii has scored 43, 59, and 43 points so far this season. I look for them to score a ton of points again in this football game and I look for them to keep this game within the number -- and possibly win this game outright. Army doesn't have the fast-twitch muscle guys in their secondary to keep up with the offensive weapons of Hawaii. Cole Mcdonald is completing 70% of his passes and he has already passed for 1165 yards and 13 tds with 0 interceptions so far this season. He has been electric for Hawaii. I look for him to play well again this Saturday and I look for a high scoring game once again.
Take Hawaii
Take Over
6-Unit Play. Take #168 Florida -20.5 over Colorado State (Saturday, September 15th at 4:00 p.m)
The Florida Gators have a long way to go to be a contender in the SEC East. They lost to Kentucky last week at home and Dan Mullen will look to put that game behind him and his football team this week. Luckily, they get to face Colorado State this week. The Rams pulled off a miracle victory last week against a poorly coached Arkansas team. However, don't let that game fool you. This Rams team is not very good and they are in the wrong place at the wrong time. They have one guy on their team that could start at Florida and that is Preston Williams (wr). This is their first game away from home and they face the most athletic team they have faced so far. Florida should score at will against the Rams and I look for them to score in the forties fairly easily. I don't see the Rams scoring in the twenties and keeping this game within the number. They are extremely weak at the QB position and their OLine isn't good either. This is a mismatch and it's bad timing for Colorado State.
Take Florida
5-Unit Play. Take #161 New Mexico -4 over New Mexico State (Saturday, September 15th at 8:00 p.m)
I am going to keep this short and to the point. New Mexico State is one of the worst college football teams in the country and I will continue to fade them until the books catch up. I understand that this is a rivalry game but 4 points is a bargain against this team. They aren't physical and they do a lot of arm tackling. I look for New Mexico to finally get a win in this series. They played at Wisconsin last week and they kept it close for a while. They face a much worse opponent this week and I look for them to pull away and win this game by double digits.
Take New Mexico
Best of luck -- Mike
Allen Eastman
3-Unit Play. Take #106 Memphis (-27.5) over Georgia State (7 p.m., Friday, Aug. 14)I will lay the points in this game. This line has jumped up from 23.5 to 27.5. That tells me where the sharp money is coming in on this game. Memphis lost a tough one last week against division rival Navy. I think they are going to bounce back here. This is a team with a high-powered offense that can score a lot of points. And they are facing a weak Georgia State defense. GSU is coming off a 41-7 loss to North Carolina State last week. They scored first to go up 7-0 and then allowed 41 unanswered points. This team is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games going back to last year. Memphis 5-0 ATS in its last five games played on Friday night and this team will be excited for a chance to get a big win in a primetime night game. Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. I think the Tigers will jump out early in this one and will pull away in the second half for a blowout win.
4-Unit Play. Take #139 Ohio (+3.5) over Virginia (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
This line has dropped from 6.0 to 3.5 and the sharps are all on the team from the MAC in this one. This is a very good Bobcats team and they were one of the best teams in the MAC last year. They are expected to be one of the best teams in the MAC again this year and this is one of Frank Solich's best offenses. Ohio had a bye last week so they have taken two weeks to get ready for this game. This is a team that has beaten Kansas the last two years and have a close loss at Tennessee. They are 3-1 ATS against teams from major conferences. Ohio is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 nonconference games and they are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Virginia is coming off a tough loss to Indiana last week and they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after a loss. I think Ohio has a great chance to win this one and I will take the points.
3-Unit Play. Take #164 UAB (+4) over Tulane (1 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
This is great value on the home underdog. UAB has all of its best players back from last year's 8-5 bowl team. That team made a bowl game after the program was disbanded for two years. They are focused on making another bowl game this year and that means getting this win at home. This team won 52-0 over Savannah State in their first home game and the Blazers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games. This team has a great home field advantage and it will come into play here. They are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games as a home underdog with three outright wins last season. They are 27-19 ATS in their last 46 games as an underdog overall. UAB is also 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after a loss and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after a loss of three touchdowns or more. Tulane is not a good road team at all. They are a terrible 14-57 SU in their last 71 road games. Go with the home team here.
6-Unit Play. Take #181 Alabama (-21) over Mississippi (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
This one is going to be a blowout! Alabama beat this Mississippi team 66-3 last year. I think that they can do the same thing this year. Ole Miss has a high-powered offense. But Alabama played a team like this on opening night when they faced Louisville. They won that game 51-14. Alabama also played a strong offensive team last week in Arkansas State and won that game 57-7. Mississippi is coming off a game against an FCS team. They gave up 41 points to Southern Illinois and were losing 38-35 at halftime of that game. This Mississippi team is not going to be able to slow down Alabama's offense at all with their No. 125 ranked defense. Mississippi is No. 126 in pass defense and No. 101 against the run. Alabama is No. 19 in scoring defense and they have given up just 21 points in their two games even though they have played a lot of backups and played a lot of garbage time. Mississippi is just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games against teams in the SEC. The Rebels are just 2-5 ATS after a win and just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. Alabama is the best team in the country and they have been dominating the teams they've played so far this year. They will do it again here and I see another blowout win.
Allen Eastman
Strike Point Sports
3-Unit Play. Take #116 Toledo (+10) over Miami (noon, Saturday, Sept. 15)This Toledo team is good and they are going to jump up and bite a Miami team that is ripe for the picking. Miami was an extremely fortunate team last year. Yes, they looked unreal in their destroying of Notre Dame, but in other games they won, they won by the skin of their teeth (See Syracuse vs Miami). The Hurricanes are not a dominant football team, and they shouldn't be favored by this many points against a Toledo team that won't be scared to knock Miami around. The turnover chain has lost its luster as this is a Miami team that has lost four of their last five games dating back to last year. Toledo got a week off before this game. They have had two weeks to prepare for one of their biggest games of the season, and you know their home crowd will be electric. Miami could win this game, but don't be surprised to see Toledo come away with the outright win.
3-Unit Play. Take #169 Houston (-1.5) over Texas Tech (4:15 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Houston looks good, and they will continue to look good against Texas Tech. The Cougars destroyed an Arizona team that was supposed to give them a tough game. Now they get another team with a solid offense, but in our opinion, not as good as Houston's. The Cougars can beat you with different options on the offensive side of the football, and Texas Tech won't have an answer. A non-conference opponent does not scare Houston as they are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 non-conference games and they are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 road games. Take the Cougars here as they win 44-37.
NFL Plays:
3-Unit Play. Take #282 San Francisco (-5.5) over Detroit (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Detroit stinks. We hit big time against them in their opener and now we are jumping all over a San Fran team that will look much better here than they did against the Vikings. The 49ers gave a Super Bowl contender all they could handle in their first game of the season, losing 24-16 on the road. That final is absolutely something to build on. Yes, it was Jimmy G's first loss as a starter, but it was a game you can learn from. The Lions are nowhere near as good as the Vikings, and Jimmy G will get back on that winning track. San Fran is 4-2 ATS in the six games that Garappolo has started while the Lions are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 September games. Take the 49ers in this one as they win 31-20.
3-Unit Play. Take #274 New York Jets (-3) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
We love the Jets. We loved them Week 1, hitting our 7-Unit play on them, and we love them Week 2 as well. Miami is a gritty, gutsy team, but this Jets team believes in each other, and they believe they can win. This Jets offense is better than people think. Their wide receiving core is solid, and they have the ability to run the ball if need be. Look for this game to not be a runaway Jets victory like Week 1 was, but a Jets win and cover nonetheless. The Jets defense is going to give Miami fits. They are athletic, and they play with a motor that just keeps going. The Miami offense will struggle to ever get on track. New York knows that they have an opportunity to battle in the AFC East. They are better than the Dolphins and the Bills, and if there was ever a year to knock off the Pats this would be the one. We aren't saying they will, but again, they are better than people think. Lay the points in this one as the Jets win 24-16.
3-Unit Play. Take #287 New York Giants (+3) over Dallas (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
The Giants played one of the best teams in football and actually held their own. If it wasn't' for a late fumble, a silly interception off of a helmet and a dropped punt late in the fourth. Dallas is not a good football team and they will lose this game outright. This is a Dallas team with no big time tight end and no dynamic wide out to give the Giants secondary fits. Dallas will struggle to get to 17 points and the Giants will get to 20-24 points. The Giants offense had stretches of solid football against Jacksonville and it will be much easier in this game. Take the points here as the Giants win 24-17.
7-Unit Play. Take #269 Houston (-2) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
The Texans were in a tough spot week 1. They had to play the New England Patriots and actually played them to a close game, losing 27-20. Watson was rusty, and understandably so, coming off a long time off due to his knee injury. He, and the Texans offense will look much better this weekend. It would be much better if Marcus Marriota was not under center for the Titans, but even with him playing we still love the Texans. Houston is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings with Tennessee, while the Titans are an awful 1-5 ATS in their last six September home games. Houston will look much more efficient on the offensive side of the football. Lamar Miller will find success running the ball and Watson will look more like last year's version, than the Week 1 version. This is a big early season game for both teams as neither wants to start 0-2. The Texans had a legitimate chance to win that Pats game, and they will win this one. Look for this game to end with a Texans 27-17 victory
3-Unit Play. Take #275 Philadelphia (-3) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Philly should have lost to Atlanta Week 1, but they won't have that look about them this week. The Eagles shook off a little rust, and have had plenty of time to prepare for a Bucs team that actually looked much better than they are. This is an absolute letdown spot for the Bucs as they come crashing back to earth following their upset win over the Saints. Yes, Tampa Bay looked dynamic torching the Saints for a plethora of points, but that won't be the case against a much better Philly defense. The Eagles know how to get teams to play their style of football and they will force their will on the Bucs. Don't be surprised to see this final finish at half of what the Bucs Week 1 total was. Look for this to be a Philly 21-13 victory.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
Saturday September 15th 2018-CFB-
5 Unit Play Take #126 Syracuse +3 over Florida State (12:00pm est):
Florida State needed a lot of luck to beat FCS foe Samford last week at home as the Seminoles trailed the entire game until a scoring a touchdown with with just four minutes left in the contest. FSU was also out-gained in the game despite the fact they ran more plays on offense than Samford. The biggest difference in the game came though in the +4 turnover differential for FSU which is what likely saved them from being upset. This was the 2nd straight disappointing outcome for the Seminoles to begin the 2018 season as they were trounced by a 24-3 score at home to Virginia Tech in their season opener. It's year one under new head coach Willie Taggart and first year head coaches can struggle in their opening season as they make major changes which appears to be what's going on with Florida State right now.
It's year three for Syracuse head coach Dino Babers and there's lots of signs things are going in the right direction. The Orange come in with a 2-0 start and have scored 117 points in their first two games. They actually could have even better numbers if they hadn't lost their starting quarterback Eric Dungey in the middle part of their opening game. Without Dungey in the lineup the Syracuse offense slowed way down but when he returned later in the contest the Orange offense once again looked unstoppable. Syracuse looked like a team that was ready to take off last season as in the middle of the year they beat Clemson and then nearly upset Miami Florida and Florida State with both games coming on the road and all played during a three game stretch. They did lose Dungey after that game to a season ending injury and with his loss they ended up dropping their last three games of the season. This is a team that loves to play fast and that edge is magnified when playing inside the Carrier Dome which where this game will be played with a noon start time on Saturday and all that should be a nice edge for the Orange.
Take Syracuse plus the points.
5 Unit Play Take #131 Rutgers +3 over Kansas (12:00pm est):
The wrong team is favored in this one. This point spread is basically saying these two teams/programs are about even which isn't the case. The Scarlet Knights play in one of the toughest divisions in CFB where their blowout losses to the likes of Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State and Ohio State makes them look worse than they really are. This is a team that went 3-2 last year (4-1 ATS) in conference games against the rest of the league. They came into the 2018 season and easily beat Texas State 35-7 in their season opener. They took one of their annual beatings last week to Ohio State but make no mistake about it this Rutgers team is the best one yet for 3rd year head coach Chris Ash.
The Kansas Jayhawks won their first FBS game since 2016 last week and ended their 46 game road losing streak as well as they beat Central Michigan 31-7. Before we give Kansas too much credit there's a couple key points. The CMU team that they beat last week is WAY down this year after losing a ton of starters and experience. CMU also gift wrapped the game for the Jayhawks as they turned the football over six times in the game (-6 turnover margin). The game was also just 7-0 at the half as Kansas struggled to move the football. Keep in mind also that Kansas lost their season opener to an FCS foe, were sacked 6 times in that game and were gained less than 60 yards rushing in game while averaging just 1.8 yards per carry.
Take Rutgers plus the points here.
4 Unit Play Take #169 Houston -1 over Texas Tech (4:15pm est):
Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury is in his 6th season as head coach of the Red Raiders. In these so called toss-up games lined between -4 and +4 he's went 4-13 against the spread at TTU. Time and time again Texas Tech has failed to live up to expectations including in their season opener this year where they were drilled by an average Ole Miss team 47-27. The Rebels went up and down the field on the Red Raiders defense averaging over 9 yards per play in the game.
Year number two for Houston head coach Major Applewhite and things are looking up for the Cougars. They come in off a 45-18 thrashing last week of Arizona in a game that wasn't even that close as the Cougars led 38-0 early in the 2nd half before calling off the dogs in the game. This Houston program has been the exact opposite of Texas Tech as they've usually played above their heads in what was considered to be evenly matched opponents going 5-1 ATS their last 6 games lined between -5 and +5. The Cougars switched quarterbacks late last season to D'Eriq King and they've won 5 of their 6 regular season games with him behind center.
Take Houston here.
3 Unit Play Take #206 Utah +5.5 over Washington (10:00pm est):
No team has been more dangerous when facing a ranked foe as an underdog/small favorite (-3 or lower) the last 6 years than the Utah Utes. Utah has covered the spread each of the last 7 times in this role when facing a ranked team and they are 13-1 overall the last 14 times. They've looked very good in their first two games of the season especially on the defensive side of the football as they've allowed 10 points or less in both games. Utah should be extra motivated for this game here as they've lost back to back heartbreakers the last two years to Washington including last season when the Huskies somehow scored 10 points in the last 58 seconds to steal the 33-30 game and are 3-0 ATS against Washington the last three years. This is also of the toughest places to play in CFB and it should be even more difficult here with this being a night game.
Take Utah plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #114 Massachusetts +4 over Florida International (7:30pm est):
UMass is the better of these two teams this year. They look worse than they are because they've had to play two teams (Georgia Southern) so far who are loaded and have a lot of guys back. That won't be the case in this one as Florida International lost a lot of players from last year's squad. FIU was able to pull out a big come from behind win last week at ODU in a game they were getting beat badly in early. I like this UMass squad and think they have a big edge here at quarterback.
Take Massachusetts plus the points here.
Expert College Football Picks History:
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