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Last Week's Expert College Football Picks From Our Handicappers.
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Doc's Sports
3 Unit Play. Take #342 Iowa Hawkeyes -3 over Iowa State Cyclones (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 7 CBS) We all know about the issues Iowa has had on offense over the years. Despite those, they have had great success against Iowa State in recent years winning 7 of the last 8 years. Iowa State had the more talented team in at least half of those games, but Iowa just has the mental edge over them. For what its worth, Iowa did put up 40 points last week against Illinois State in a shutout victory. Iowa returns a ton of talent from last year and people just continue to underestimate them, especially on defense. Iowa State is 2-5 ATS (1 push) in the last 8 games against Iowa.3 Unit Play. Take #344 Maryland Terrapins -9.5 over Michigan State Spartans (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 7 BTN) Part of the reason Mel Tucker was dismissed was because his team was trending downwards, and Michigan State did not want to pay out the remainder of his giant contract. Now they are in a complete rebuild and I see them losing this game by double-digits. Michigan State has been the better team in this series, but Maryland did win 31-9 last season and Michigan State is likely worse than they were in 2023. Maryland tends to pound teams early in the season and this one should be no different. Michigan State did not look that impressive last week against FAU, getting just two touchdowns and 15 first downs.
4 Unit Play. Take #382 Nebraska Cornhuskers -7 over Colorado Buffaloes (7:30p.m., Saturday, September NBC) This is a now or never game for Nebraska to prove they can at least be a competent bowl team. They have been living in their past for most of this century and have gone through coach after coach with not much success after Frank Solich. They are the better team playing at home against a former rival that has numerous holes on both sides of the football. Colorado has a good quarterback and a great dual threat player in Travis Hunter. But they also have a terrible defense, and a terrible offensive line and Nebraska should feast on that. This is a game Nebraska needs to win by double digits, and they should get it in a primetime game.
Robert Ferringo
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS3-Unit Play. Take #305 Georgia Tech (-2.5) over Syracuse (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 7)
This is a bad fundamental matchup for the Orange. Georgia Tech runs the ball. They do it very well. They are fast, they are physical, and they are experienced in the run game. Syracuse was awful against Ohio’s running game last week, allowing 255 yards on the ground. That is not a good Ohio team. And the Orange couldn’t put them away. Georgia Tech is just further ahead in their rebuild. They know who they are and they have been very good while winning their first two games. The Orange have a new coach, new systems, a bunch of new players, and a new quarterback. They are still figuring out who they are. I think Tech will be able to ram it down their throats on Saturday and get that third win.
1-Unit Play. Take #309 Bowling Green (+35) over Penn State (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 7)
Penn State has to be feeling good after their dominating win over West Virginia on the road last week. Now they come home and dress up as five-touchdown favorites. Penn State has been good in this role as a monster favorite and hasn’t held back against overwhelmed opponents. However, since 2019 their wins over MAC teams have come by 32, 31, 36 and 19. Bowling Green has been competitive against Big Ten teams. They only lost by 25 at Michigan last year, won at Georgia Tech, stayed within five TDs in both games against top conference opponents in 2022, and upset Minnesota as a 31-point underdog in 2021. They won’t come close to that here. But I think they can squeeze in the backdoor here in a game that will be somewhere around 44-13.
2-Unit Play. Take #312 Memphis (-18.5) over Troy (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 7)
I’m looking for a blowout in this one. I just don’t think that Troy is very good this year and I think this is a clear rebuilding season. They are coming off a disappointing home loss as a big favorite to Nevada and now they have to hit the road to face a Memphis team that can score in bunches. The Tigers basically had a walk-through last week against North Alabama. And they could be looking ahead to next week’s game against Florida State. But I think they are going to use this one as a test run rather than taking two weeks off. Troy got torched on the ground last week, allowing 219 rushing yards on 34 carries, and I think the Tigers are going to control this one from start to finish.
1-Unit Play. Take #314 Cincinnati (-2) over Pittsburgh (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 7)
2-Unit Play. Take #321 Arkansas (+7.5) over Oklahoma State (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 7)
This one feels like a last stand for Sam Pittman. He is coaching for his job this year and is desperate for a marquee nonconference win like this over a Top 25 opponent. Arkansas played tough on the road against some very, very high-level teams in the SEC last year, losing at Alabama by 3, at Ole Miss by 7, and at LSU by 3. Frankly, they have been great on the road over the last four years. They got blown out at Florida in 2020 and at Georgia in 2021. Beyond that they have six outright wins in their other 18 road/neutral games, with the 12 losses coming by 2, 11, 2, 1, 7, 2, 23, 2, 3, 12, 7, and 3 points. That’s an average of 6.3 points per game and nine of 12 road losses have come by a touchdown or less. I think they can put up a fight here.
7-Unit Play. Take #332 Kentucky (-10) over South Carolina (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 7)
I am not high on this South Carolina team. I think Shane Beamer is doing a good job and USC is a tough program to consistently win at. I think his group is going to get smashed here, though. The Gamecocks have beaten Kentucky in back-to-back seasons. UK blew a 10-point lead on the road last season and I think they are going to want some revenge. South Carolina has not been good on the road. Over the last five seasons they are just 6-18 ATS away from home games (not counting bowl games) with a ton of blowouts. They have six outright wins in those 24 road/neutral contests. The other 18 have been losses by 20, 20, 24, 14, 28, 17, 23, 27, 25, 30, 3, 14, 32, 14, 10, 21, 22, and 13 points. That’s a lot of blowouts and the average road loss has come by 19 points! USC didn’t look good at all last week against Old Dominion, holding on 21-19 as a 20-point favorite. I don’t think that ODU team is any good and that game was in Columbia. Kentucky wrecked Southern Miss 31-0 in a game that was called just five minutes into the second half. If they had played it out then UK may have scored 50-60 points and this spread might be 13.5 or 14.5 this week. I like the extra value and I think that Kentucky is the superior team, playing at home, looking for revenge.
1-Unit Play. Take #335 Northern Illinois (+28) over Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 7)
Love the Irish. Good team. Easy schedule. Nice win last week over A&M. Pretty obvious letdown situation here stepping way down in class. They have a bigger game next week at Purdue – not that they are looking ahead, but they are probably giving that one a little more consideration than this one – and after dealing with some injuries last week in College Station I can see some guys getting snap counts reduced. Northern Illinois has been cheeky, winning at Boston College and at Georgia Tech while also throwing a scare into Kentucky over the last three years. The Irish have been a little vulnerable early in the season as big favorites, sleeping through games against Toledo (won by 3), Marshall (lost as a 20-point favorite) and Central Michigan the last three seasons.
1-Unit Play. Take #337 Eastern Michigan (+24.5) over Washington (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 7)
I mean, at this point Chris Creighton and Eastern Michigan are a blind bet as a road underdog. He is an unbelievable 29-9 ATS when catching points on the road after a two-touchdown win last week while getting points from Massachusetts. This is a big step up in class this week. However, this Washington team is not nearly as good as last year’s and they are still working some things out. They were only up 14-0 at halftime last week against Weber State. Beyond that, UW may be looking past this game toward the Apple Cup rivalry matchup with Washington State next week. Again, the only thing that matters is that Creighton is getting points on the road. I’ll take them.
2-Unit Play. Take #341 Iowa State (+3.5) over Iowa (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 7)
Don’t watch this game. It’s not going to be pretty. At all. I will take these points though. These two teams play a lot of close, low-scoring games and six of the last 10 meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less. The underdog is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings and I think Iowa State is going to be really motivated here after losing seven of the last eight to the Hawkeyes.
4-Unit Play. Take #361 Buffalo (+35) over Missouri (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 7)
I like Missouri. I think Missouri is pretty good. Brady Cook is a really good college quarterback and Luther Burden is legit. Missouri isn’t one of the 10 best teams in college football, though. And I don’t expect them to just roll out of bed and beat anyone by 40. Last year their first two games were against South Dakota and Middle Tennessee and they won by 25 and 4 points. The year prior they played Louisiana Tech and Abilene Christian and won by 28 and 17. Before that: Central Michigan by 10 and SE Missouri State by 31. Missouri has a much bigger game next week against a suddenly relevant Boston College. They blasted Murray State last week. They are fat and happy and don’t want to get anyone hurt and don’t want to put too much on tape. Buffalo is Buffalo. I think Pete Lembo will get these guys going in a bit and he wasn’t bad at Ball State a decade ago. He was also frisky against major conference teams. In his first year he beat Indiana and only lost to a Top 25 South Florida team by 30. In 2012 they beat Indiana and South Florida and lost to a Top 10 Clemson team by 25. In 2013 he beat Virginia (badly), in 2014 only lost by 4 at Iowa, and in 2015 only lost to a Top 20 Northwestern team by 5. So he knows how to get his teams ready for these games.
2-Unit Play. Take #363 Virginia (+1.5) over Wake Forest (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 7)
I like Dave Clawson. He’s always overachieved and is a great coach. However, the numbers may be balancing them out for Clawson after years of beating expectations. The fact that the Deacons aren’t even a full three-point favorite in this matchup is kind of a red flag. Also, Wake has always done well when they had elite quarterbacks like Sam Hartman and John Wolford. I don’t think that’s the case with what they are packing here. Virginia was a little better than its record suggested last year. And after a couple very tough years in the program I think they are at least ready to be competitive with other bottom-tier ACC teams.
2-Unit Play. Take #369 San Jose State (+5) over Air Force (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 7)
I don’t think that Air Force is any good this year. They lost a ton of experience and they have some of the fewest returning starters in the country. Air Force also can’t exactly ‘hit the portal’ to bolster the roster. Ken Niumatalolo is coaching at SJSU now. He runs the option, he knows the option, and he is very familiar with how Air Force plays from his time at Navy. The fact that this number is so small is another red flag and I think this is a competitive game.
4-Unit Play. Take #376 Kennesaw State (+15.5) over UL-Lafayette (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 7)
I used Kennesaw State last week and they easily covered against UT-San Antonio. Let’s see if we can get another hit with them. Look, teams that make the jump up to FBS have been undervalued in their first year. James Madison was tough. Sam Houston was really competitive. Now I’m looking for the same out of Kennesaw. This is their first home game as a Big Boy. These guys are going to be psyched up for it. They are catching a load of points here and they have the motivational edge. Also, KSU is a triple-option team. Option teams always make for solid underdog bets and have for decades. Louisiana is a good Sun Belt team. They aren’t a great road team, though. In coach Michael Desoremeaux’s first year here the Ragin’ Cajuns lost outright in three road games in which they were favored, two of which they were favored by 10 or more. Last year they lost at Old Dominion and at Arkansas State as favorites. I don’t think they are going to lose this game outright or anything. But they haven’t shown that they just wreck people away from home and I don’t think they will do it here.
3-Unit Play. Take #382 Nebraska (-7) over Colorado (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 7)
The underdog has been the play in Colorado games over the last two years, going 10-3 ATS in the Buffs’ 13 games. That’s the only reason this isn’t a bigger play – Colorado finds a way to hang around. This isn’t a good team, though. Colorado stinks. Deion is a joke. His son is a good quarterback but is going to get killed because he holds the ball too long and because the offensive line is weak. Nebraska has a serious revenge angle after they got run over last year in Colorado. This looked like a different Nebraska team last week. Matt Rhule is a tough, no-nonsense guy and his teams play like it. That is exactly the type of team that will give Colorado problems. I think the Huskers defense is vastly improved. I think Nebraska is going to be able to run the ball and control the game. I think the home crowd is going to be out for blood. And even though Colorado won’t get blown out in this game I just don’t think they have enough juice to win it. So I’ll lay the points and look for a 10-point Nebraska win.
2-Unit Play. Take #385 Appalachian State (+17) over Clemson (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 7)
This isn’t a great Appalachian State team by any stretch. But you still kind of know what you’re going to get from them and you know to expect a game effort. These guys took North Carolina to double-OT on the road last year and beat Texas A&M in 2022. They also lost by just two points to Miami on the road in 2021. So they get way, way up for these marquee games. Clemson is probably still dazed and confused after getting their clocks cleaned by Georgia last week. We’ve seen big losses in marquee games in Week 1 linger with teams (see: State, Florida) and Clemson might be a step slow in this one. The Tigers will win this game but I think the backdoor will be open all night.
2-Unit Play. Take #388 Oregon (-21) over Boise State (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 7)
Oregon played like trash last week. I expect Dan Lanning to give his horses the whip this week to make up for it. I know everyone loves Boise State in this spot. And it is a lot of points. But the number has only been climbing all week – despite the public love for the Broncos – and that’s a signal to me. Last year Washington crushed the Broncos 56-14 and I think that this Ducks team can be as good as that UW squad. In 2022 they lost by 17 at Oregon State in the opener and this Boise State team just isn’t the same beast they used to be. The Broncos had to exert a lot of effort to hold of Georgia Southern down near Savannah, GA last week. Now they are heading to Autzen for a night game. If Ashton Jeanty gets shut down then this Boise offense falls apart really quickly. That’s what I see happening here.
3-Unit Play. Take #308957 Northern Arizona (+44.5) over Arizona (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 7)
This may be found in Added Games or College Extra.
I’m not buying this Arizona team. If this Arizona team and program were in such great shape then Jedd Fisch wouldn’t have bolted to take a step back with a rebuilding Washington team. They kept their quarterback and stud receiver. But there isn’t any other NFL talent peppering this roster. They gave up 39 points to New Mexico last week. And don’t like the 61-39 final fool you; that game was competitive. It was a 41-31 game late in the fourth quarter. Arizona scored 61 last week and they have their Big 12 opener, against a Top 20 Kansas State team, next Friday night. How motivated do you think they are here? Who do you think is more motivated – the big in-state school or the little Northern Arizona squad who see this game as the Super Bowl? Northern Arizona only lost by 35 last year and I think they can manage that again. I don’t see Arizona risking Fifita or McMillan late in a blowout. Remember: Northern Arizona actually beat Arizona 21-19 in 2021. It won’t be close to that this weekend but I think this is about 10 too many points for Arizona to lay out.
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #319 Texas (Pk) over Michigan (Noon) AND Take #399 Tennessee (-1.5) over N.C. State (7:30 p.m.)
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
NoneRaphael Esparza (VSI)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK #24 Unit Play. Take #342 Iowa -3 over Iowa St (3:30p.m., Saturday September 7 CBS)
Saturday late afternoon at Kinnick Stadium we should see another hard-fought game between these two state-rivals. When these two teams hit the field its always a close game and scoring is hard to find on the field. The last 12 meetings 10 of them were decided by 10-points or fewer and with this game being played in the backyard of the Hawkeyes I see Iowa winning by a touchdown. Iowa has won 10 out of their last 11 games as a favorite and look for the Hawkeyes to display more offense like we saw last weekend.
7 Unit Play. Take #380 Over 54 Western Michigan at Ohio St (7:30p.m., Saturday September 7 BTN)
Last Saturday at the Shoe the Buckeyes beat Akron 52-6 and we hit the ‘Over’ and Saturday night we look to go back to the well. Western Michigan went to Wisconsin and hung around another Big 10 school and got the cover. The Broncos were able to score 14 points against Wisconsin and I hope for another double-digit score from the Broncos. Ohio St is 7-3 O/U against Mid-American conference opponents, and the Buckeyes offense will have no issue scoring Saturday night.
Tony George
College FootballFriday - 9/6/24
4 Units
#301 / #302YU / SMU (Over 55.5)
I love this Over Play. I was a little surprised this line was not 60. BYU’s defense was deplorable last year, allowing no less than 31 points in any road game, that was their best effort. SMU will go up and down the field on this one in my opinion. BYU had issues with the Big 12 schedule last year and this game is not in Ogden but in Dallas in the heat. SMU’s defense leaves a lot to be desired and both teams last week scored 100 points combined on offense. Friday Night games also usually are shootout type games over the years and these 2 teams will score points here. I have this at 61 points on Power ratings in this matchup.
Saturday 9/7/24
2 Units
#319 / #320 Texas / Michigan (UNDER 42.5) *Noon EST
People say this line is an overreaction TO Michigan struggling and Texas cherry picking a weak sister at will last week where QB Manning even got in the game. Texas is LOADED on offense and has skill players all over the place and Sark is a good play caller. Despite having big injury issues at RB, Texas still looked like a machine on offense and bear in mind they beat Bama last year in the pre-conference schedule as well. BUT - This is the Big House and Michigan is known for shut down defense in here. I do not expect much out of their offense honestly, but I expect them to keep Texas down on points. Since 2022 Michigan has allowed 24 points or more only once. At home they have held opponents to 17 or less in all but 2 of their last 16 home games, which is impressive. Low scoring one here which scares me off the big number Texas is laying on the road but the Under worth a look for sure – only way Michigan has a chance unless the Longhorns chock on the road.
4 Units
#348 Ole Miss *FIRST HALF LINE (-27) over Middle Tennessee St *4:15 EST
Lane Kiffin has no issue dropping the hammer and keeping it dropped against anyone as last week showed us, a 76-0 score. The Rebels are one of the best offensive teams in the nation (maybe the best in some eyes) and gun it all over the place and have skill and speed on offense galore. MTSU has the overall rated #127 offense in CFB this year. MTSU had to come from behind to win a game against a bad Tenn. tech team last week. They will not have that luxury here as Ol Miss can name the score and should come out firing and put it away early, at LEAST a 4 TD lead at half.
7 Units
#390 Washington St ML (-130) over Texas Tech *10 EST
The sum of all part is better for the Cougs in this one at home. Texas Tech is banged up and not 100% and may not have their best RB either (Brooks) in this one. Remember last year Techs first road game was a loss at Wyoming. The Red Raiders struggled last week against Abilene Christian in a 52-51 win where they should have lost. Washington St QB Mateer set a school record with 6 TD passes last week, and considering the talent level over the years at WSU, that is impressive even against a weak sister. Lots of offense in the tank for the home team here who is 13-5 ATS at home their last 18! And tech on defense last week looked bad. Took the -2 out of it and laid the moneyline.
Vernon Croy
4-Unit Play - #382 Nebraska -7-110 Colorado (Saturday, September 7, 2024, 7:30 pm ET)Take Nebraska ATS as my top college football pick for Saturday night. This pick falls into one of my top college football systems and I really like Nebraska in the spot here Saturday. Colorado won the meeting between these two teams last season by 22 points however this is a much different Colorado team coming into the season. Nebraska took care of business in their opening game holding UTEP to just seven points and I definitely expect them to step up defensively once again here Saturday. I also expect Nebraska to have plenty of success on the ground against this Colorado defense. Play Nebraska ATS
Scott Spreitzer
3-Unit Play: Take 306 Syracuse +3 over Ga Tech (12 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 7)Georgia Tech’s close call, hard-fought win over Florida State has little meaning after watching how bad FSU is right now in their ugly loss at home to Boston College. Ga Tech allowed FSU QB DJ Uiagaleilei to connect on 70.4% of his passes. BC held him to 21 of 42 passing and a rating 23 points lower. Beating a Georgia State team power rated outside the top-100 last week means little to me also. Syracuse had its chances to cover in last week’s 38-22 win over Ohio, leading by 22 points in the fourth quarter. Former Ohio State QB Kyle McCord was terrific, completing 69.2% of his passes for 354 yards (9 yards per attempt) with four TDs and a pick. He’s in sync with his offense and the play calling and should be even better this week. Four players caught at least four passes and RB LeQuint Allen gained 6.5 yards per carry. I like McCord’s passing against Tech and I’m taking the points with Syracuse. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 320 Michigan +7 over Texas (12 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 7)
Books have to make adjustments but based off of just one game, I do believe this number has been over adjusted. At one point, Texas was a 3.5 point favorite and they were as low as a 5-point favorite in some shops just a week ago. Yes, Michigan had a tough game against Fresno State, eventually winning 30-10. U-M ran for 4.5 yards per carry but the passing game was lacking. However, Fresno State is not a pushover. The Bulldogs had a wins total projection of eight before the season. The Wolverines were nasty and stingy on defense and I expect the unit to disrupt what Texas wants to do. The Longhorns’ 52-0 win over a bad Colorado State team is put into perspective when you consider I have CSU power rated 106th in the nation. I make Texas a 6.5-point neutral site favorite over U-M. Add-in the game being played at the Big House along with Michigan’s defense and we have a play on Michigan plus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
6-Unit Play: Take 343 Michigan St. +9.5 over Maryland (3:30 p.m., Sat., Sept. 7)
Maryland is receiving a lot of hype this season and because of expectations this line is too high as far as I’m concerned. I do believe there’s been an overreaction to week-one results. Michigan State only beat FAU by six points but ran for nearly five yards per carry. The Spartan defense was outstanding, holding the Owls to 248 total yards on 3.44 yards per play. Maryland beat up on a bad UConn team that would be more than a TD underdog to FAU on a neutral field. Despite last week’s results, I’m concerned with the Terps’ QB situation against better opposition like they’ll face this week. Jonathan Smith was a great hire in East Lansing and he gives us an advantage on the sideline. I’m taking the points with Michigan State. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
August Young
[CFB] [4-Unit] (302) SMU -11.5 (-110) over BYU (9/6 @ 7:00PM EST) We're against most on this one, but we believe SMU are being overlooked as double-digit favorites here based on a lackluster showing at Nevada. BYU are coming off a 41-13 beatdown over SIU, but this is a massive step up in competition and on the road. We should also note that anytime we have a team listed as double-digit home favorites this early in the season with an extra game in hand; the home favorite is covering the spread 55% of the time while putting up an average of 40.1 points per game.[CFB] [6-Unit] (313) Pittsburgh/Cincinnati o62 (-110) (9/7 @ 12:00PM EST) This line has already moved a bunch since the opener but we still show ample value. The Panthers offense looked unstoppable under their new OC as they put up 55 points (570 yards). The tempo was high, and they will be able to operate the same way here against Cincinnati who also moved the ball well and put up a ton of yardage. We're expecting defense to be optional in this one with both teams having holes in their secondary. We made this number much higher, and the market move is confirming our opinion.
[CFB] [4-Unit] (343) Michigan State/Maryland o44 (-110) (9/7 @ 3:30PM EST) MSU struggled on the offensive end in Week 1 with QB Aiden Chiles, but we're willing to bank on improved X's and O's here. Maryland are improved on defense this season but the market is getting ahead of itself a little after holding UCONN to 7. What impressed us more was the offense that hung 50 after running up a 630 yard tally. Terps get the win here and likely have a lot of success. Soldi value on the over around a key number.
[CFB] [4-Unit] (352) Florida International +6.5 (-110) over Central Michigan (9/7 @ 6:00PM EST) This line opened at a touchdown and was immediately smoked by syndicate groups down to 5. However, it's slowly been creeping back up but due to a massive influx of public money to the tune of 90% on CMU. This has settled at 6.5, and we believe for good reason with sportsbooks knowing more sharp money would come back at 7 with higher limits as they manage exposure. We make this line much closer to 4 and believe CMU are getting too much respect after what we saw in Week 1 with the 66-10 destruction of CCSU. Florida International managed to hang in for a little while, and cover the number on the road vs. the Hoosiers. That's not something to be scoffed at, and we like them to keep this one within a touchdown at home and will sprinkle some on the ML.
Strike Point Sports
6-Unit Play. Take #321 Arkansas (+7.5) over Oklahoma State (noon, Saturday, Sept. 7)I just don't see Oklahoma State being a touchdown better than Arkansas in this game. The Arkansas defense is going to be good enough to keep them in this game as they have a strong defensive line and they returned their best secondary player in Jaylon Braxton. Arkansas didn't have a good record last season, but even when they lose they keep games tight. I can see this season following a similar trend, as they could lose games like this, but they just won't go away. The points are at a premium here as Oklahoma State's defense will let the team down time and time again, allowing Arkansas to stay in this ballgame. Oklahoma State has the edge in a few statistical categories but Arkansas just won't go away here. Give me the points here.
3-Unit Play. Take #342 Iowa (-3) over Iowa State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 7)
Iowa was my big future play last season and they covered easily by playing good defense. This years Iowa team is looking to play the same style, but their offense should be better. This is a huge game for both teams, and with the Hawkeyes having Troy on their schedule next they won't be looking past this contest. Iowa State has lost nine of their last 10 games straight up against ranked opponents and they have failed to cover the spread in four straight games against non-conference opponents. Lay the small number here as Iowa wins a slugfest.
6-Unit Play. Take #366 Illinois (+5.5) over Kansas (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 7)
I like Illinois chances to win this game outright. The Illinois offense should be much improved from last season and they should find some success. Luke Altmyer at QB and Kaden Feagin at RB give the Illinois a solid one two punch that will be underrated during this early portion of their schedule. Kansas is going to look to an explosive offense and try and hit the home run against the Illinois defense. The only thing is, the Illini will trot out a better defense, especially in the secondary. Take the points in this matchup in a game that they may not be necessary.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
CFB-Saturday September 7th 2024-
7 Unit Play Take #363 Virginia +1.5 over Wake Forest (7:00pm est):
I really liked this Virginia team coming into this CFB season and now I feel even stronger about them after their impressive week one performance as the Cavaliers won by 21 points over a decent Richmond team (and covered the spread) and it really wasn't close to that final score either. Virginia has a 3rd year head coach which is where you tend to see college teams improve the most. Though they won just 3 games last season keep in mind that they lost to Miami Florida in overtime and had 4th quarter leads over James Madison and Louisville as well. The underdog in this series has went 8-1 against the spread the last nine head to head battles with six of those games being outright upsets by the dog.
Play Virginia in this one.
4 Unit Play Take #369 San Jose State +5 over Air Force (7:00pm est):
Air Force didn't look good in their 21-6 opening game win over FCS foe Merrimack which is a below average FCS program. The Falcons lost a ton of guys from last year's team as they return just 6 starters overall. They go up here against a San Jose State who's led by 1st year head coach Ken Niumatalolo. The Spartans had a quality opening week win and point spread cover (-2.5 points) over Sacramento State 42-24. Keep in mind that Sacramento State was one of the highest ranked FCS programs in the country coming into this season. Niumatalolo was the long time head coach at Navy before coming to SJSU and he should know exactly how to slow down the unique AFU offense that he goes up against here in this one.
Take San Jose State plus the points.
4 Unit Play Take #390 Washington State -2 over Texas Tech (10:00pm est):
Tough road trip here for a Texas Tech program who's not looked like the same team under 3rd year head coach Joey Mcguire when they leave Lubbock as the Red Raiders are just 3-8 ATS in the last two seasons in their 11 true road contests. TTU hand their hands full last week as they hung on to win by just one point in overtime versus a very average FCS foe Abilene Christian in a game the Red Raiders were -31.5 point favorites. It wasn't a fluke result either as the Texas Tech defense allowed an eye popping 603 yards of offense to ACU in the game. Even more alarming is the fact the Wildcats threw 51 times in the game and TTU didn't register a single sack in the contest. Added all up and it was an inexcusable pathetic performance by the Red Raiders.
On the other side of things Washington State hammered Portland State winning 70-30 in a game they scored on a touchdown on EACH of their first 8 possessions (not counting the possession before the half that started with just 2 seconds left). Even when you factor in the level of opponent faced I think the WSU offense might have had the most impressive week one outing offensively speaking in all of CFB. The Cougars 4th year head coach Jake Dickert has done a fabulous job the last couple of seasons in the early part of the schedule going 8-1 straight-up and 8-1 against the spread in the first four games of the year each season since 2022. It looks like Dickert once again has his WSU team ready and I expect them to pull away from Texas Tech in this one.
Take Washington State in this game.
3 Unit Play Take #314 Cincinnati -2 over Pittsburgh (12:00pm est):
Cheap price on what I feel are two programs going in opposite directions. Pittsburgh is led by 10th year head coach Pat Narduzzi. The Panthers are coming off their worst season under Narduzzi last year going just 3-9 overall and one of those wins was over an FCS foe. Pittsburgh has struggled away from home as a road underdog the last couple of seasons failing to cover the point spread in any one of their six true road games during this time.
Cincinnati is in year two under head coach Scott Satterfield. Though the Bearcats went just 3-9 last year as well they did make the Phil Steele list of most improved teams in CFB coming into this 2024 season. I came away very impressed with the Cincinnati offense in week one as they put up 658 yards of offense in the game and they very easily should have scored more than 38 points in that game but they were done in by 3 turnovers (all fumbles) and they failed to score any points on three separate occasions despite being inside their opponents red zone (missed FG, fumble and kneel down).
Take Cincinnati minus the points here.
3 Unit Play Take #339 Massachusetts +18 over Toledo (3:30pm est):
(+18 is at Bookmaker, BetOnline and SouthPoint)
I'm coming back with Massachusetts again this week despite last week's disappointing performance against Eastern Michigan. The Minutemen were near the top of my 'underrated' teams coming into this season so I think we are still getting some line value at this price n this matchup. They face off here against a Toledo team that appears to be way down coming into this season compared to their recent past. The Rockets have been the top MAC team the last couple of years but they've lost a ton of talent including many of their star players and ALL of their offensive line combined starts as well. They got the easy 49-10 win over FCS foe Duquesne last week but a deeper dive shows it wasn't as impressive as the final score.
Take Massachusetts plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #354 Old Dominion +1 over East Carolina (6:00pm est):
I like to use a proactive approach early in the CFB season especially if I see something impressive in a game and we have a great example of that here with Old Dominion as the Monarchs should have beat SEC foe South Carolina last week. ODU looked like the better team in that game as they completely shut down the Gamecocks offense but were done in by 4 turnovers in the contest. ODU head coach Randy Rahne has done a decent job as their head coach especially in this role going 18-11 ATS when getting points.
East Carolina had a nice stretch a few years back when they were getting strong quarterback play from Holton Ahlers but after the 2022 season Ahlers left the Pirates and the program has dropped way off because their QB play has been awful as they went just 2-10 overall last season. ECU scored more than 23 points in a game just three times last season against an FBS foe (never more than 28 in a game) and they went 0-3 in those games. They did hammer a bad FCS opponent last week but it was a sloppy performance overall as the Pirates turned the football over 5 times in the game against an awful Norfolk State defense. Things won't be as easy in this one going up against what looks like a solid ODU defense here. I think the wrong team is favored in this game.
Take Old Dominion plus the points.
Griffin Murphy
7 Unit Play - Take #388 Oregon (-20) Over Boise State. (10:00p.m, Saturday, September 7th)Oregon comes into this game 1-0 on the year after blasting Idaho in a 24-14 final. Oregon was a 49.5-point favorite in that matchup and clearly did not cover the spread. There has been tons of hype and speculation around Boise State this offseason, as they have made a lot of moves on both the offensive and defensive sides in the playoffs. Everyone is expecting a lighter season out of Oregon due to the fact Bo Nix is now in the NFL after having nearly an MVP-caliber season in the Pac 12. Dillon Gabriel has taken over the helm at the QB slot after an outstanding career with Oklahoma. Gabriel, in his first game in a Ducks uniform, went 41-49, 380 yards in the air, and 2 touchdowns. Boise State allowed 480 total yards in their most recent matchup against Georgia Southern, who is by no means at the caliber level of Oregon. Boise State also has a couple issues on the defensive side, with the main struggle being their secondary. Gabriel and this mighty Oregon team should light up the scoreboard now that Gabriel has settled in and the chemistry has folded together. I believe this to be a bloodbath as the herd is all over Boise with the points. Fade them heavily; Oregon should beat Boise by 30 in this game.
Take #388 Oregon (-20) Over Boise State.
Griffin Murphy
4 Unit Play - Take #362 Missouri (-34.5) Over Buffalo. (7:00p.m, Saturday, September 7th)
Missouri comes into this game led by star QB Brady Cook. I absolutely believe Missouri has the capability of making the college football playoff this season with this kid leading the helm. Cook is one of the most underrated QBs in football right now and is beginning to make a massive name for himself. Missouri opened up the season absolutely destroying Murray State 51-0 and covering a -50 point spread. Buffalo is a solid team and also seems to sustain solid season runs, although their defense can be a massive issue here in this contest. Buffalo allowed 180 yards in the air against Lafayette, who has absolutely no talent whatsoever now that we are talking about a team like Missouri. Missouri is coming off a season where they finished 11-2 and 6-1 at Memorial Stadium. Last season, Missouri went 7-3 ATS after a win. Buffalo went 3-9 last season as a club and was just 2-4 on the road. Buffalo also went a brutal 1-2 ATS after a win. Missouri is here to prove a point, and in this contest, I think we are going to see a full-blown display of the capabilities of this Missouri football club.
Take #362 Missouri (-34.5) Over Buffalo.
Griffin Murphy
3 Unit Play - Take #378 Tennessee (-9.5) Over North Carolina State. (7:30p.m, Saturday, September 7th)
Tennessee comes into this game 2nd in the league when it comes to offensive yards per game after putting up a ridiculous 724 yards in their first game of the season. Nico Lamaleava led at the helm and went 22/28, 314 yards in the air, and 3 touchdowns. This defense held Chattanooga to just 3 points and 235 yards. North Carolina State is never an easy take, but I was quite disappointed in their opening performance. North Carolina opened up, taking down Western Carolina 38-21. The issue for North Carolina State in this one is on the defensive side of the ball. They have made some moves in the portal, and their secondary just does not seem settled in. Now dealing with the big dawgs at a neutral site. Last season, North Carolina State was 0-1 ATS at a neutral site, 0-2 ATS against ranked opponents, and 1-4 ATS in non conference games. Tennessee should light North Carolina State up in this game with a very potent offense and a defense that is going to throw a massive shock wave at this offense line and really rip them off their game.
Take #378 Tennessee (-9.5) Over North Carolina State.
Griffin Murphy
Amal Shah
6-Unit Play. Take #344 Maryland (-9.5) over Michigan State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 7)Maryland takes on MSU in College Park and what an opportunity this for Maryland to blow a team out that has ton offensive question marks. The Terrapins should have a huge offensive edge in this game as Aidan Chiles is just a redshirt freshman making his first road start of the season. He struggled vs FAU at home going 10/24. Billy Edwards had a great debut for Maryland vs UConn. Now this will be a tougher challenge for the Maryland offense and defense, but they should be able to comfortably cover the -9.5. Take Maryland -9.5 over Michigan State.
4-Unit Play. Take #342 Iowa (-3) over Iowa State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 7)
The annual Cy-Hawk series continues in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes have one of the country's best defenses and it should be on full display vs Iowa State. Rocco Becht will face a rough challenge on the road. Cade McNamara's legs could be the difference for Iowa on offense. The stout Iowa defense will be the difference in the game. Iowa wins and covers the -3 in this series.
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