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Last Week's Expert College Football Picks From Our Handicappers.
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Doc's Sports
passRobert Ferringo
THURSDAY FOOTBALL SELECTIONS1-Unit Play. Take #308 Dallas (-8.5) over Tampa Bay (8 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 8)
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #308 Dallas (-1.5) over Tampa Bay (8 p.m.) AND Take ‘Over’ 41.5 Tampa Bay at Dallas (8 p.m.)
I actually like Jalon Daniels. I think he has potential. But this Bucs offense is a disaster. Chris Godwin is the shell of himself after injury. Emeka Egbuka is having a sophomore slump. The line is just OK. They can’t run the ball or protect the quarterback and the Bucs have scored over 20 points just twice in their last 11 games. The Dallas defense is pathetic. But it should get the smallest bump from playing at home against a rookie quarterback. The Cowboys have scored 34 points per game over their last three. Tampa’s defense has been very good. But they have also faced the Browns, Vikings and Packers offenses, still allowing 21 points per game in those three. Tampa won’t be able to shut down the Cowboys (especially without Antoine Winfield) and they won’t be able to score enough to keep up.
5-Unit Play. Take #316 UT-San Antonio (-6.5) over South Florida (7:30 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 8)
On paper, this is a matchup of 4-1 teams. But one of them is a fraud and one of them is not. South Florida lost its coaching staff and its best players. But they got off to a 4-0 start so there looked like some hope. Until you dig in on who they beat. They barely beat weak sisters FIU and Bowling Green (0-2 ATS) and also pulled a rabbit out against Army in a game they should not have won. South Florida lost at home to Temple and now has to hit the road. UTSA is playing with revenge in this one. They got wrecked 55-23 last year at USF despite getting outgained by just 90 yards. (The Roadrunners won 49-21 in 2023.) I think this is a better UTSA team. Their only loss this year came at Texas in a game that was 20-6 late third quarter and UTSA has played other quality opponents. USF’s rookie head coach, Brian Hartline, has a quick turnaround here. UTSA is a different team at home. And Hartline called out the UTSA home crowd. There’s just too much motivation on the home team’s side and this spread should be in the double digits.
FRIDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
1-Unit Play. Take #318 Louisville (-3.5) over Florida State (7 p.m., Friday, Oct. 9)
Louisville has three losses already this season. But two of them came against very good teams (Wake Forest and Ole Miss) by just a field goal and another was on the road (N.C. State). I’m not sure what to make of Florida State. But there’s no way that I trust this team on the road. These two teams have played a common opponent (SMU) and Louisville won by 10 while FSU lost by 3. I think Louisville is a little more desperate here and that should make the difference.
1-Unit Play. Take #320 Washington (-3) over Iowa (9 p.m., Friday, Oct. 9)
Washington stinks. Jedd Fisch is vastly overrated and Demond Williams is a fraud. However, this is a bit of an indicator line. Everyone knows Iowa is the better team. Yet, Washington is favored. Iowa is coming off back-to-back emotional games. First, they pulled an upset over Michigan in The Big House. Then they hosted ESPN Gameday and lost valiantly to Ohio State. Now they have to hit the road out to the West Coast to face a Washington team that had been good at home before a 0-5 ATS slide. This one is just a play against the public.
1-Unit Play. Take #324 Utah State (-5.5) over Washington State (9 p.m., Friday, Oct. 9)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #325 Iowa State (+17.5) over BYU (10 p.m., Friday, Oct. 9) AND Take #374 Georgia Southern (+14.5) over James Madison (7:30 p.m.)
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
1-Unit Play. Take #330 Florida (-11.5) over South Carolina (12:45 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 10)
South Carolina is a falling knife. They’ve lost three straight games. Their only wins this season have come against Kent State and Towson. USC has already blown 16-0 and 17-0 leads, so they will never feel safe. They were not competitive at all in their one road game, at Alabama. And with all the off-field issues surrounding this program – ‘Will Shane Beamer be fired?’ – I don’t think that a trip to The Swamp is what they need right now. Florida is going to be pissed after getting humiliated at Missouri last week. They already throttled a very good Ole Miss team (52-28) at home and also overwhelmed a very good Auburn defense. Florida is focused after a loss, they are at home, they are the better team, and they are facing a shaky USC squad. I can see this one somewhere around 37-24 for the home team.
2-Unit Play. Take #344 Penn State (-1) over USC (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 10)
I wasn’t impressed with USC at all last week. This is a sloppy, undisciplined, overrated team. The Trojans are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games outside California and 1-16 ATS in their last 17 games east of the Mississippi. Penn State is up against it after back-to-back losses. They are favored here. But I think they are bringing the underdog mentality into this game. That has always been Matt Campbell’s best role. It’s a White Out so the crowd should be extra. I think desperation will win out here. This will be a back and forth game, but I can see the home team winning by 3 late.
2-Unit Play. Take #364 Western Michigan (-13.5) over Kent State (3:30 p.m.)
Western Michigan has had an eventful season to date. From their unfair opening loss at Michigan to last week’s tight comeback win at Buffalo, WMU has been up and down. Their last home game was a big one against Boise State that WMU was a no show for, losing 32-7. They will be better here. Kent State has actually been more competitive. But they are on the road now. They lost their first two road games 116-3. Now, that was against South Carolina and Ohio State. Not the same thing here. But WMU is one of the best teams in the MAC and they are due to have a game where they flex. This feels like the one.
3-Unit Play. Take #368 Purdue (+2.5) over Minnesota (8 p.m.)
I’m staying on Purdue. We hit them with a top game last week as the Boilermakers snapped several long losing streaks via outright win at Illinois. Stop the presses: but I think they can do it twice in a row. This isn’t a bad team. They are taking to Barry Odom’s scheme and I think the guy can coach. This is also a weird spot for Minnesota. Two weeks ago they sprung an upset at Washington as a double-digit underdog. Then last week they beat rival Michigan at home for the first time in 49 years. Their players took the Little Brown Jug to the Lions game on Sunday and were honored! It’s a big deal. And that puts them in prime letdown spot here on the road against a team they probably aren’t taking seriously. Wake Forest might end up being the second- or third-best team in the ACC this year. Purdue pushed them to the limit in a 38-36 home loss. Purdue has also gone up against UCLA and Notre Dame, so they have faced several teams better than the Gophers. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in this series (4-0 ATS L4) and Minnesota is 1-15 SU in their last 16 road games.
2-Unit Play. Take #374 Georgia Southern (+7.5) over James Madison (7:30 p.m.)
Sun Belt Billy Napier is back where he belongs and enjoying early success at James Madison (a program that was humming well before he got there). JMU has been dominating opponents during their 5-0 SU and ATS start. They have beaten absolutely no one, though. Liberty is there best win. And that came at home by seven points. Georgia Southern has gone toe-to-toe with Clemson and Houston (covering the spread in both) and lost by an average of 14.5 points in those two games. They aren’t going to be scared by what James Madison is packing and I think they are a live home dog here.
2-Unit Play. Take #390 Arizona State (-20.5) over Hawaii (10:30 p.m.)
This is just a motivational play. Kenny Dillingham spoke about how embarrassed he was after ASU’s humiliating loss at home to Baylor last week. The Bears, who are pretty good, played great. I don’t think there was anything Arizona State could do. Arizona State has had a weird start to the season, losing by 28 at Texas A&M in a game that was 24-20 heading into the fourth quarter. Then they went to London. This feels like a ‘get right game’ for the Sun Devils, and I trust Dillingham. Timmy Chang is doing a good job with this Hawaii program. But this year’s team is not nearly as good as last year’s. They lost by 10 on the road to a bad Stanford team and by 17 to a worse Wyoming squad. Last year they got flattened by 34 at Arizona and by 28 at UNLV. And in 2024, a team with talent comparable to this one lost by 45 at Utah State and by 32 at Washington State. Hawaii is 0-5 SU and ATS in its last five games as a double-digit road underdog, losing those games by an average of 33.6 points per game.
1-Unit Play. Take #398 Vanderbilt (+9.5) over Mississippi (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 10)
7-Unit Play. Take #412 Oregon State (-14.5) over San Diego State (6 p.m.)
This Oregon State team is better than anyone expected. They could’ve beaten Houston and they should’ve beaten Texas Tech early in the season. And since those two early losses they have been wrecking people, winning their last three games by a combined score of 141-50. They have won their last two road games by 26 and 30 points and should get a bump from coming back to Corvallis. This is a tough place to play. And it is SDSU’s second tricky road game in three weeks. They were blown out at The Glass Bowl (Toledo) two weeks ago. Then last week they pulled off one of the more bizarre upsets/comebacks we will see this season. The SDSU lock room has been dealing with a mumps outbreak. (Real thing; even though the vaccine has existed for 60 years.) They were down several starters last week against Texas State and, predictably, fell behind 17-3 against an all-offense, no-defense TSU squad. SDSU scored two second-half touchdowns to lead the comeback in their 31-29 win: a 96-yard kickoff return and a 32-yard pick six. It was way more bizarre than that. SDSU was up 24-20 and Texas State had a 15-play drive end at the SDSU 2-yards line with 3:20 to play in the game. The Aztecs then took a safety to make it 24-22. The pick-six was literally Texas State’s next play from scrimmage.
San Diego State stinks. They aren’t as good as they were last year on either side of the ball and are currently ranked No. 127 in total offense and No. 129 in total defense. That’s Akron territory. The Aztecs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. They are dealing with mumps. Their two road losses were by 25 and 18 points. The Aztecs are coming off one of the flukiest wins you’ll see. And they are facing an upstart team that has a full head of steam and a home field advantage.
3-Unit Play. Take #390 Arizona State (-13.5) over Hawaii (10:30 p.m.) AND Take #412 Oregon State (-7.5) over San Diego State (6 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #330 Florida (-4.5) over South Carolina (12:45 p.m.) AND Take #362 Appalachian State (-2.5) over Old Dominion (1 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #335 Buffalo (+28) over Toledo (3:30 p.m.) AND Take #352 West Virginia (+10.5) over Arizona (Noon)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #358 Virginia (-2.5) over Syracuse (7:30 p.m.) AND Take #368 Purdue (+9.5) over Minnesota (8 p.m.)
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS
2-Unit Play. Take #452 Jacksonville (-7.5) over Philadelphia (9:30 a.m., Sunday, Oct. 11)
I hate being on the wrong end of the market with this one. But I really don’t know that the line movement is going to come into play. This is either going to be a field goal game because the Eagles dig deep and play out of their minds as gritty underdogs or it is going to be a blowout for the Jaguars. This Jacksonville team is legit. A superhuman Josh Allen playoff effort and Denver’s unfathomable September home field advantage (70-24 SU since 1979) are the only two things that have beaten the Jaguars in their last 13 games. Throw in their epic collapse at Houston (up 29-10 in the fourth quarter) and those are their only three losses in 15 games over the past 12 months. So if we lose this game it will take something bizarre. Kick out the fourth quarter of that Houston game and the wins have come by 19, 29, 3, 22, 17, 28, 14, 6, 34, 24, 29 and 5 points. That’s an average of 19.2 points per game and only three of those 12 wins would’ve come by fewer than two touchdowns.
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Craig Trapp
NCAAF4-Unit Play. Take #324 Utah State (-5.5) Over Washington State (9 pm, Friday October 9) **FD Odds**
This Utah State team is much better than their 1-4 record suggests. Turnovers prevented the Aggies from making last week's game against Boise much closer, and they were just one play away from defeating Washington earlier this season. Take Utah State to win and cover on Friday night.
2-Unit Play. Take #330 Florida (-11.5) Over South Carolina (12:45 pm, Saturday October 10) **DK Odds**
The Gators struggled in their loss to Missouri, but this presents a significant bounce-back opportunity. Meanwhile, South Carolina was devastated in their loss to Kentucky and now faces an even more talented team. Take Florida to win and cover the spread.
7-Unit Play. Take #391 Over (58.5) UCLA vs Oregon (3:30 pm, Saturday October 10) **FD Odds**
Both teams are among the better offenses in the country, and it's hard to imagine either defense being able to stop the other. Oregon has performed well, even with backup QB Raiola at the helm. This season, Oregon is 4-0 to the over, while UCLA is 3-1. Early in week was leaning to UCLA as underdog but think it’s much much better to take the total. Take the over in the UCLA vs. Oregon game.
4-Unit Play. Take #415 Under (46.5) Air Force vs Northern Illinois (7:30 pm, Saturday October 10) **DK Odds**
This is a significant play against a struggling NIU team, which is 0-4 straight up and 1-3 against the spread this season. Their performance is hampered by a poor offense. Air Force is coming off a rivalry game and traveling, look for slow start for Air Force. Take the under in the Air Force vs. NIU game.
Craig
Scott Rickenbach
CFB 2-Unit Play. Take #316 UTSA -6.5 vs South Florida (7:30 p.m., Thu, Oct. 8)The Bulls are 4-1 just like UTSA is but the Roadrunners have played a much tougher schedule and their only loss was to the current #1 team in the nation, Texas. As for South Florida they have played a very weak schedule and the USF offense does not rank well at all. Their pass defense also has had issues and I love the fact this line has come down from its opener. It now sits at 6.5 as of gameday afternoon and this is a great spot for the home team to roll! The Runners also have revenge from an ugly loss at South Florida last season. Payback time here! 2* UTSA -6.5
CFB 2-Unit Play. Take #325/326 'Over' 45.5 Iowa State at BYU (10:15 p.m., Fri, Oct. 9)
This one is poised to surprise. Ideal conditions for an over here in this one and I take advantage as this total has also made a downward move as of Thursday afternoon. The Cyclones are off a high-scoring win and had over 500 yards of offense. Trouble for Iowa State is the fact they also have allowed big rushing yardage over their last two games and also allowed over 500 yards in total in last week's win. Brigham Young is off a low-scoring win last week but that was at TCU and I expect them to score much better here at home for this one. At the same time, the Cyclones will score some points here. Iowa State did score big versus the Mountaineers last week. They had a tougher game the week before versus Utah but scoring 17 points only was a big deceiving as they had 23 first downs in that game. A couple of INTs hurt them in that one. The BYU defense is strong but they also have benefitted from some easy match-ups too. This one is a bit tougher especially coming off the road trip and victory at TCU last week. This is also the Cyclones first game outside of Iowa this season and they have a bye on deck and I expect them to go all out here and ride the momentum of their high-scoring win last week but the Cyclones struggling rush D means the Cougars ground game is going to dominate in this one too. 2* OVER 45.5 in BYU
CFB 2-Unit Play. Take #328 Nebraska +7.5 vs Indiana (12 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 10)
Tough scheduling spot for Indiana as they went to the northeast last week to face Rutgers and now head west to face Nebraska and they have a huge home game versus Ohio State on deck. This is the perfect spot for the Huskers to surprise the Hoosiers and get some revenge for an ugly loss in the most recent meeting. The Hoosiers have been winning big (in most games) this season but statistically a number of of those big wins did not make sense based on the yardage in those games. The Cornhuskers will surprise here and might even get the upset win as Indiana in a tough sandwich spot with Ohio State on deck. 2* NEBRASKA +7.5
CFB 3-Unit Play. Take #369 Oklahoma +7.5 vs Texas (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 10)
Tricky game for the Longhorns. I know the Sooners offense has not looked good but the Horns offense has some issues as well and I am big on the Oklahoma defense. They have been strong so far this season and they can absolutely keep them in this game. Remember this is a neutral site game and a long-time rivalry and the Sooners want some payback after some recent blowout losses. The Sooners have struggled to score touchdowns in recent meetings with UT and they catch the Longhorns off a hard-fought win at Tennessee. Oklahoma is off an ugly loss to Georgia and I could see the Sooners being fired up here for some payback and they stay inside this inflated number. 3* OKLAHOMA +7.5
CFB 7-Unit Play. Take #349 LSU -8.5 at Kentucky (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 10)LSU has been great to me this season for top games and I really like their situation a ton again this week. So far we have played on the Tigers twice and gone against them once this season for my weekly top game and the result was all wins. This looks like the perfect spot to make it 4-0 on the year. We get line value here because the Tigers are on the road and Kentucky has a similar record and that is keeping this line in check. In fact, it dropped from its double digit opener down to the 8.5 range as of Thursday afternoon and I love the additional value here with LSU. The Tigers rank very high statistically on both sides of the ball and I love the fact their most recent road game was a loss. Also, when Lane Kiffin was at Ole Miss they had a loss to Kentucky and so there are multiple motivational factors for Kiffin here and he'll have his LSU team ready. Kentucky is 4-1 this season but they got blasted by Alabama and that game was also a home game for the Wildcats. Also, the Cats got outgained in last week's OT win over South Carolina but they had a 2-0 turnover edge. When the Wildcats won at Texas A & M they had fewer first downs than the Aggies but they had a 2-0 turnover edge in that one as well. As for the Tigers, they are 4-1 on the season and all 4 wins were by 29+ points and the total margin of victory in the 4 wins was 150 points! In the lone LSU loss (at Ole Miss), the Tigers did outscore the Rebels 17-8 in the 2nd half. They did still fall short in that one, their most recent road game, and that is even more reason to back them here. They want to get it done this time on the road and we get solid line value here. Value spot in what has the makings of a road rout. 7* LSU --8.5
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
7-Unit Play. #355. Take Wake Forest -3.5 over NC State (Saturday @ 12pm est)Note, NBA is just 11 days away. Back/Back Winning Sesaons in one of our best sports and +4500 last year. Historically our best sport and our actual best sport CBB was +10,300 lsat year starts soon. Ok, per this game. We knew Wake was a little special when they gave Miami issues in the 2nd half of that game if you remember. Wake Forest has sound coaching. This team went on the road to beat Purdue which that win looks pretty good considering Purdue beat Illinois recently. That's the thing, we can evaluate other teams wins and losses as the season goes on as we see more data. Wake dropped 57 on Stanford. They also beat a decent Akron team who can be feisty at times. They lost to NC State by 10 points last year and this is a regional game to boot. They were up 24-17 in that game before not scoring a point in the 2nd half and losing. Gio Lopez has been great with 10 touchdowns and just 1 interception. NC state off a monumental win over Louisville and I think they have a massive let down and Wake will remember last year's dismal game at home in the 2nd half where they did not put up a point and got outscored badly.
4-Unit Play. #345. Take Central Michigan +3 over Ohio (Saturday @ 3:30pm est)
Central Michigan is better than advertised. They lost the last couple of times to Ohio and they will put that to rest this year. Ohio won narrowly by 2 points the last meeting and Central Michigan is better this year. Central Michigan is doing quite well in the turnover battle this year and beat Wyoming 24-10 this year which was very impressive and I think they will control the line of scrimmage here and pick up the win.
4-Unit Play. #10. Take LSU -8.5 over Kentucky (Saturday @ 7pm est)
We roll with LSU here as we understand that Kentucky has been so good lately but I think if anyone knows that LSU does. And, for LSU to lose their last road game at Ole Miss in a disappointing fashion and to face a Kentucky team that has had some shock wins lately, they can send a very strong message, similar to how Alabama beat Kentucky, to send a very clear message in a blowout - also an indirect message to Alabama - that LSU is a real deal threat and this is a great opportunity for LSU to do that and the type of game that Kiffin loves. Remember, Kentucky has 6 players ruled out including 3 inside linebackers. LSU hasn't won in Lexington since 2002 as well so that should motivate them. LSU coverts 51% of 3rd downs and Kentucky only 26%. We like LSU by double digits.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK #64 Unit Play. #322 San Jose St -4.5 over Wyoming (9:00p.m., Friday, October 9 CBSSN)
Normally I don’t play Friday College Football games because line movement can change and a blink of an eye but this game has moved 2-points. San Jose St opened at -6.5 and a release time it’s a solid -4.5 and I see this game having great betting value. Wyoming was on the road last weekend and lost to North Dakota St 28-0 and the Cowboys have dropped 3-Strsight road games. San Jose St went to the big island last weekend and beat Hawaii 20-16 and now get this game at home. Spartans QB Luke Weaver has been good all season and I see him picking part the Cowboys defense.
7 Unit Play. #349 Over 51.5 LSU vs Kentucky (7:00p.m., Saturday, October 10 ESPN)
LSU has played one conference road game already this season and they lost to Ole Miss 32-24 and that game went ‘Over’ the 51.5 total. Kentucky comes back home on a three-game winning streak and in those three wins they are averaging 37ppg. The Wildcats defense so far this season is allowing an average of 26.8ppg and I see LSU having no issue scoring on the road. Kentucky is 5-0 O/U in their last 5 SEC conference games and look for the LSU Tigers scoring at will on the road.
2 Unit Play. #418 Fresno St +6.5 over Boise St (10:30p.m., Saturday, October 10 CW)
If this game was being played on the Smurf Turf of Boise we wouldn’t be touching this game. But this conference matchup is in the Valley and I see the Bulldogs keeping this game close. Fresno St is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog in conference play and the Broncos are 1-6 ATS in conference games.
Tony George
College FootballFriday 10/9
4 Units
Take #322 San Jose St. (-4.5) over Wyoming
*9 EST
Wyoming’s offense is not good and 1 dimensional, and what they can do – run the ball, plays into a good San Jose run defense. Last game Wyoming completed 5 passes. If you are playing from behind, what do you do? The Cowboy offense ranks #131 in CFB, and that does not travel well. Add in the fact they have averaged 8 ppg on the road this year, and we have a home team who can cover this number by a TD in my opinion. Weak line and total fade of Wyoming against a capable home team finding their stride.
Saturday
10/10
3 Units
Take #365 Duke (-6.5) over Georgia Tech
*3:30 EST
Duke was in the ACC Title Game last year and now sits this year at 4-0 SU and ATS. Manny Diaz is a great football coach. In my opinion they are under the radar screen right now. They are off a bye week with added prep time for this one. GT also off a bye after they allowed Stanford to put up 24 unanswered points in their last game and lose 37-24. Well, Duke pounded Stanford 35-7 and in only 1 game this year has Duke allowed more than 7 points, and that was a hard-fought win against Illinois on the road. GT’s only win was against Mercer this year and they allowed Mercer 188 yards rushing against them. Bad weather alert in the forecast – rain and high winds, so add in the fact Duke is #12 in CFB running the ball for 243 yards per game and we have a huge advantage with the Devils on the ground chewing up yards. I have this rated at -10. The body of work and sum of all parts favors the Blue Devils and getting this under 7 is crucial.
6 Units
Take #346 Ohio (-3) over Central Michigan
*3:30 EST
I love Ohio in this spot. I have them at -6.5 on power ratings and they are at home. Saw them play in Lincoln Neb. This year and while they got waxed by a decent Husker team, their QB play was tremendous in that game. CMY ranks #128 in offense in scoring at 17 ppg. Again, I say this all the time, good defenses travel well, bad offenses do not. Speaking of 17 points, that is what Ohio has allowed over the past 2 games and their strength is stuffing the run, and that is what CMU is best at. If you play from behind and your team averages 85 passing yards a game, hard to win or cover a number. This number is low because CMU blew out Akron their last game, but that means zero to me. Lots of teams blowout Akron as they are rated #135 out of 138 teams in CFB.
Additional 2 Unit Plays
Take #412 Oregon St (-14.5) over San Diego State *6 EST
Take #327 Indiana (-7.5) over Nebraska *12 Noon EST
Vernon Croy
NO CFB PLAYSScott Spreitzer
6-Unit Play: Take 326 Under 46.5 Iowa St. v. BYU (10:15 p.m., Friday, Oct. 9)Neither one of these teams wants to throw the football and both have ground games that can shorten the contest. BYU is 16th on the ground and ISU averages nearly 200 rushing yards per game. The Cyclones have a QB who can move but most importantly a RB in Aiden Flora who is well on his way to a thousand-yard season (594 yards in five games). Last week’s offensive results were an outlier for Iowa State thanks to a few trick plays and facing one of the worst defenses in CFB (WVU). Trick plays likely won’t work against the stout and disciplined Cougars. BYU will want to keep it on the ground too despite the injury to RB LJ Martin. QB Bear Bachmeier is a solid running QB (not so much through the air) and the Cougars have enough depth to go RB by committee like they did in last week’s 17-10 win over TCU. BYU is a momentum team and they’re on a 23-8 Under run the week after holding an opponent to 14 or fewer points. And CFB games are on a 70-33 Under run after the current road team won their previous game (at home) while scoring at least 38 points. This is an October angle as conference play kicks into full gear. I’m playing the Under on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
2-Unit Play: 332 Under 44 Sac State v. Bowling Green (12 p.m., Sat., Oct. 10)
We have two bottom-feeding offenses in college football going at it on Saturday. Sacramento State has scored a grand total of 36 points in their four games against FBS teams. They have no running game and barely have a pulse in the passing game and that’s when you include a game against FCS Mississippi Valley State. Bowling Green broke through with their first win last week at Miami-Ohio. The Falcons had scored a grand total of 33 points in their previous four games, including a TD and two FG against Tarleton State. There are 138 teams in FBS and Bowling Green ranks 137th in total yards per game and passing yards, and 121st on the ground. Since Eddie George became the HC at BG, they’ve been a home favorite five times and all five stayed under the total (33 combined points per game). I’m playing the Under. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 365 Duke -6.5 over Ga Tech (3:30 p.m., Saturday, October 10)
This is a decent revenge spot for the Blue Devils. Ga Tech won last year’s meeting, 27-18. It was a 10-10 game with 11 minutes to go but Duke couldn’t overcome a couple of INTs. But while Duke is undefeated so far this season, the Yellow Jackets, with a lot of new faces and with QB Haynes King off to the NFL, have one win this season and it came against Mercer. They can be forgiven for a loss to Tennessee but losing to Stanford and Colorado shows the drop from last year’s version. The Jackets have no ground game and can’t stop the run on defense. Duke owns the 12th best running game in college football and only five teams are better against the run. This advantage could be further magnified if the weather forecast (stormy conditions) comes to fruition. Sunny or not, I’m laying the points with Duke. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
2-Unit Play: Take 368 Purdue +2.5 over Minnesota (8 p.m., Saturday, October 10)
If you’ve followed me, you know I’m a Barry Odom fan. I liked the coach when he was at Missouri and absolutely loved the job he did turning around the moribound UNLV program in a hurry. Purdue is an OT loss to a good Wake Forest team from a winning record. QB Ryan Browne had a big game last week in a 24-17 road win at Illinois, snapping a 19-game conference losing streak. Browne has connected on 71% of his passes this season with eight TD passes and just one pick and his WRs are top-shelf. The Boilermakers are 17th in CFB, averaging over 306 passing yards per game and they will be the best passing game Minnesota has faced this season. The Gophers are off a pair of emotional wins and have Iowa up next and they have not fared well when coming off a win against an opponent off a win. Finally, teams averaging at least 8.3 yards per pass attempt are on a 48-15 ATS conference run when matched up against teams with an average passing game (6.4 to 7.5 pypa) and the line is in the +3/-3 range. I’m taking the points with Purdue. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
August Young
4-Unit Play (318) Florida State/Louisville UNDER 60.5 -110 (10/9 @ 7:00 PM ET) Florida State's ability to break up scoring drives makes UNDER 60.5 the play for Friday night. The Seminoles allowed just 205 total yards and 37 rushing yards in last week's 38-7 win over Virginia. Their front recorded 10 sacks, and Virginia finished scoreless on 12 of its 13 possessions, including its final 11. That is a concrete route to keeping an opponent away from the end zone: lost yardage and empty drives rather than repeated scoring chances. Louisville also supplied an example of limiting the damage on sustained possessions last week. NC State finished three drives with field goals, including its winning kick after a 10-play march, instead of touchdowns. Those scoring-range stops matter against a total that requires 61 points to clear. Florida State's recent disruption and Louisville's ability to force field goals give this under a specific defensive foundation. Take UNDER 60.5.4-Unit Play (381) Texas A&M +3.5 -110 over Missouri (10/10 @ 12:00 PM ET) Texas A&M's ability to turn defensive takeaways into points and finish possessions with reliable kicking makes the Aggies attractive with more than a field goal in Columbia. Through five games this season, A&M has produced eight takeaways, split evenly between interceptions and fumble recoveries. The Aggies have converted opponent turnovers into 41 points while allowing only three points after their own giveaways. That creates valuable scoring opportunities without requiring every drive to travel the length of the field. Their kicking game strengthens the case in a matchup where each possession matters: David Olano is 7-for-7 on field goals this season and made two kicks from beyond 50 yards against Arkansas, including a 57-yarder. A&M comes off that Arkansas victory with practical ways to generate points and capitalize on mistakes. With those possession and scoring tools, the Aggies can stay within a tight finish. Take Texas A&M plus 3.5, protecting a three-point defeat.
4-Unit Play (329) South Carolina +11.5 -110 over Florida (10/10 @ 12:45 PM ET) South Carolina's ability to produce offense through both the pass and the quarterback run gives the Gamecocks a practical way to stay inside this generous spread. LaNorris Sellers supplied both dimensions against Kentucky last week, throwing for 226 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 147 yards. His 74-yard run helped set up a fourth-quarter touchdown pass, and he found another scoring throw in overtime. That combination makes the offense harder to contain than an attack that depends only on conventional dropback passing. South Carolina scored 34 points, retook the lead in the fourth quarter and scored first in overtime. Sellers supplied the fourth-quarter touchdown pass after his long run, then delivered the overtime scoring throw, showing two ways to finish important possessions. With Sellers demonstrating ways to move the ball and generate scores in multiple phases, taking 12.5 supplies a substantial cushion for this road matchup. Back South Carolina plus the points.
4-Unit Play (414) UNLV +3.5 -110 over North Dakota State (10/10 @ 7:10 PM ET) UNLV's ability to attack through the air and on the ground makes the Rebels an attractive home underdog with more than a field goal in hand. Jackson Arnold just accounted for five touchdowns in the 39-31 win over Cal, throwing for three scores and running for two. Through five games he has eight passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns, so North Dakota State must account for the quarterback as a runner while defending the passing game. That gives UNLV several ways to sustain drives and answer scores rather than relying on one offensive approach. The Rebels have also made Allegiant Stadium a productive setting: they are 6-2 there under Dan Mullen and have won 16 of their last 22 home games. Take UNLV +3.5, a useful cushion for a competitive matchup in which the Rebels have the offensive tools to stay in the game.
Strike Point Sports
3-Unit Play. Take #319 Iowa (+3) over Washington (9 p.m., Friday, Oct. 9)I really like Iowa in an underdog role, and I love them here. Yes, a short week trip out West isn't ever easy. but the Hawkeyes are built for something like this. Washington is desperate but Iowa wants to get to 5-1 in the worst way, as people will start to take notice. I like the Hawkeyes to bounce back after their tough matchup with Ohio State last weekend. Iowa's defense is built to wear teams down and if the Huskies are efficient on the offensive side of the ball they stand no chance. In my opinion the wrong team is favored. Take the Hawkeyes.
7-Unit Play. Take #395 Texas (-7.5) over Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 10)
Oklahoma stinks. I couldn't care less that this is a rivalry game as these two teams are just on completely different levels when it comes to talent. The Longhorns were lucky to escape Tennessee on the road, and has had time to rest to prepare for this game. Texas is going to use a similar game plan to what the Georgia Bulldogs used when they faced the Sooners. An efficient rushing attack and timely passing plays will be the kickstart this Texas offense needs. When I had this game circled I liked Texas by double-figures so the fact that this is just over a touchdown is a must play, and easy win/cover. Coach Venables isn't going to be able to figure out this Longhorns defense and he won't know how to stop the Texas offense as they pound away. Texas beat Oklahoma last year 23-6 and I feel that this matchup is even more lopsided. Lay the points here as Texas rolls.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
CFB-Saturday October 10th 2026-
5 Unit Play Take #371 Miami Ohio -2 over Massachusetts (2:00pm est):
Miami Ohio lost their starting quarterback to a season ending injury a few weeks ago. They struggled last week without him losing at home to Bowling Green in a game they probably should have won. I expect they will settle here in this one and play much better as they have a solid program under 13 year head coach Chuck Martin. Keep in mind this is still a program that's 20-5 straight-up their last 25 conference games and are much further along than this UMass program that went 0-12 last year overall.
Play Miami Ohio minus the points.
4 Unit Play Take #374 Georgia Southern +7.5 over James Madison (7:30pm est):
I have bet this Georgia Southern team three different times so far and cashed in on all of them including last week. The Eagles have been an underdog three times this year and have covered twice and going back to last year they're 5-2 ATS when getting points in a game. One thing that makes this team such a good underdog team is they have a strong passing game with Max Johnson at the helm as he's thrown for 8 touchdowns and just 1 interception this year.
James Madison comes in looking very good at 5-0 on the season and are also 5-0 against the spread as well. It's always a good idea to look to bet against undefeated teams who are also undefeated versus the spread in week six of the CFB season as they're overvalued in the betting markets.
Play Georgia Southern plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #378 Louisiana Tech -3 over Louisiana (7:30pm est):
Louisiana Tech should get back starting quarterback Blake Baker in this one and I think that could be big as this team is better with him under center. They come into this game off an upset win over Army to go to 2-2 on the season with both losses coming against quality opponents (Baylor and LSU). I like to follow the bottom three FBS conferences (Sun Belt, C-USA and MAC) and LT has played the toughest schedule of any team in those leagues this year. Overall I think this team has a ton of upside and is the better of these two so going at home here in this matchup and at this price is nice value.
Play Louisiana Tech.
Griffin Murphy
7 Unit Play - Take #351 Arizona (-3) Over West Virginia. (12:00p.m, Saturday, October 10th)We have a total of 62.5, which tells us points will be scored today. Arizona enters this game a strong 4-1, including a 34-7 blowout last week over Cincinnati. If you notice, there are a bunch of high-end caliber games going off at noon and a lot of traps set all over by the market. This is the game that we believe the market has squeezed in these trap games due to Arizona looking like a blowout situation. West Virginia is 3-2 on the year and just lost to Iowa State 45-42 last week. Arizona has had a soft schedule this far, and this is the true test in their season. We believe Arizona is at least a touchdown better than West Virginia, and this is a bad line. West Virginia has had one true test this season against Oklahoma State, where they got punched in the mouth 41-24. We believe Arizona’s defense shuts down this strong West Virgina offense and lays it all on the offense to get it done. We do believe Arizona throttles in this game, as they are 36th in the nation across offensive yards per game. Lay the 3 points here with the Wildcats, as we believe they come in and dominate.
Griffin Murphy
1 Unit Play - Take #394 California (+9.5) Over Virginia Tech. (3:30p.m, Saturday, October 10th)
Virginia Tech is coming off their first loss in the season to Pittsburgh last week in a 33-35 final. VT has been really impressive this season, but after last week's loss, we believe they regress. California has lost 2 consecutive games, and the public consensus is either on VT or not wagering this game. We also love that this line is at 9.5, as it will add even more buying pressure on VT, as we have not exceeded the 10-point key number rule. We believe this game lands within a touchdown and believe California is way underrated in this one with home field advantage. We believe another let-down spot is occurring for VT, and we will take the +9.5 points with Cal at home in this one.
Griffin Murphy
Nick Menken
7-Unit CFB: Take #397 Ole Miss (-9.5) over Vanderbilt (-110) (Saturday, October 10th, 3:30p.m)We're laying the single digits and backing Ole Miss -9.5 on the road as they roll into Nashville to clash with Vanderbilt at FirstBank Stadium. While historical trends warn against fading home underdogs when facing road favorites off a bye, this situational spot heavily favors the Rebels. Head coach Pete Golding and Ole Miss have been sitting on that bitter 52-28 loss to Florida since September 26th. Having two full weeks to evaluate the tape, fix defensive lapses, the Rebels are landing in Nashville focused, rested, and ready to make a statement. Vanderbilt is coming off a brutal 38-14 beating at the hands of Georgia, and their physical durability is a massive question mark. Quarterback Jared Curtis is banged up heading into Saturday; even if he suits up, he won't be at 100%, and any setback leaves Vandy's offense dead in the water. Vanderbilt desperately wants to turn this into a slow, possession-limiting ground fight, but Ole Miss hits the gas from the opening whistle. Once the Rebels drop early points, Vandy will be forced out of their comfort zone and into a track meet they simply can't keep up with. Lay the wood with Ole Miss.
Nick Menken
3-Unit CFB: Take #381 Texas A&M (+3.5) over Missouri (-110) (Saturday, October 10th, 12:00p.m)
This is a textbook emotional letdown spot for the Tigers. Missouri is coming off a massive high after shellacking Florida 45-17 last week. When a team hits their peak emotional narrative on home turf, repeating that level of intensity seven days later is a tall order, especially against a physical SEC front. Texas A&M lands in Columbia carrying all the urgency. The Aggies got their season back on track by pounding Arkansas 34-7, and they desperately need a marquee road win to make a statement in the conference standings. Getting a half-hook past the key number of 3 is huge here. Expect Texas A&M to turn this into a slow, grinding physical fight early, keep Missouri's offense grounded, and cover the spread in a game that goes right down to the wire.
Nick Menken
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