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Yesterday’s Expert UFC Picks, MMA, Boxing and other Combat Sports Picks from our handicappers.
Just so the public knows we are always transparent and honest with our reporting, in this spot we will list all of the previous picks and predictions for UFC boxing and other combat sports.
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Results for Sunday 24th of September 2023
| Handicapper | Units | Dollars |
Saturday 23rd of September 2023
Doc's Sports
7 Unit Play. Take 24802 Rafeal Fiziev -150 over Mateusz Gamrot (8:50pm Saturday September 23th, on ESPN+) Rafael Fiziev has a good chance of beating Mateusz Gamrot in their UFC fight on Saturday for several reasons. Fiziev's exceptional striking skills, defensive abilities, experience, conditioning, and athleticism all contribute to his potential victory. His background in Muay Thai and kickboxing, along with his ability to avoid damage and maintain a high work rate, give him an advantage over Gamrot. Overall, these factors suggest that Fiziev has a solid chance of defeating Gamrot in their upcoming UFC fight.
Robert Ferringo had no picks
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
7-Unit Play. Take Jake Collier (+120 @ DK) over Mohammed Usman. (Saturday @ 5:00pm est)
Jake Collier (13-9 MMA, 5-8 UFC) steps into the octagon to face off against Mohammed Usman (10-2 MMA, 2-0 UFC) in an eagerly anticipated heavyweight clash. Collier is the more experienced fighter, coming into this fight with 13 UFC fights under his belt, five wins by knockout, four wins by submission, and seven first-round finishes, showcasing his versatility in finishing opponents. Collier also defies heavyweight norms with exceptional cardio, allowing him to sustain a relentless pace throughout his fights. His game plan extends beyond just striking, as he likes to mix in takedowns with his striking volume, presenting a multifaceted challenge for his heavyweight opponents. Usman comes in unbeaten in his short UFC career, with his most recent win earlier this year via decision against Junior Tafa. Usman doesn't have the greatest wrestling skills, but his raw power makes him a terrifying opponent for any fighter. Given the experience, cardio, and grappling advantages, we really like the value on Collier here, and we wouldn't be surprised if this is closer pick'em when the bell rings. Take Collier.
4-Unit Play. Take Charles Jourdain (-140 @ DK) over Ricardo Ramos. (Saturday @ 7:00pm est)
In the Featherweight Division, Charles Jourdain (14-6-1 MMA, 5-5-1 UFC) takes on Ricardo Ramos (16-4 MMA, 7-3 UFC) in an exciting fight between two highly technical fighters. Jourdain boasts a clear edge in the striking department, averaging an impressive 5.78 strikes landed per minute, 49% of which are deemed significant. On the other side, Ramos registers 3.32 strikes per minute, with 38% being significant. Shifting our focus to grappling, Ramos excels with a 2.5 takedown average and an impressive 58% takedown accuracy, while Jourdain lags with a meager 0.1 takedown average and a modest 16% accuracy rate. While Jourdain may not possess Ramos's grappling statistics, he is a highly versatile fighter, holding a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. As the fight progresses, the momentum is poised to tilt decisively in Jourdain's favor, as he plans to maintain a relentless volume of strikes and apply consistent pressure on Ramos. We expect this fight to stay mainly on the feet, so we are rolling with Jourdain in this one. Take Jourdain.
4-Unit Play. Take Rafael Fiziev (-145 @ DK) over Mateusz Gamrot. (Saturday @ 9:00pm est)
Rafael Fiziev (12-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC) and Mateusz Gamrot (22-2 MMA, 5-2 UFC) are set to take center stage as the main event of UFC Fight Night, promising an electrifying showdown in the highly competitive lightweight division. Fiziev boasts a massive striking advantage, averaging an impressive 5.06 strikes per minute, with 51% being significant. Fiziev's impressive resume possesses not only a dozen victories but also includes an impressive tally of 8 knockout wins. In contrast, Gamrot maintains a striking rate of 3.03 landed strikes per minute, with an equal amount of 51% being significant. Gamrot undoubtedly holds the upper hand regarding wrestling skills, with a 4.54 takedown average with 31% accuracy. However, Fiziev has an incredible 90% takedown defense, further solidifying the expectation that this fight will likely remain on the feet, giving a substantial advantage to Fiziev. Fiziev comes into this matchup following his only loss in his last seven fights, a hard-fought battle against UFC champion Justin Gaethje. Fiziev will be determined to rebound and secure a win. Roll with Fiziev here.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
UFC VEGAS 79
5 Unit Play. Take BRYCE MITCHELL by Points -115 over Dan Ige (8:25p.m., Saturday Sept 23 ESPN+)
Tony George had no picks
Vernon Croy had no picks
Scott Spreitzer had no picks
Doug Upstone had no picks
August Young
4-Unit UFC Two-Fight Parlay: (24810) Marina Rodriguez -320 over Michelle Waterson-Gomez and (24806) Bryce Mitchell -195 over Dan Ige (Two Fighter Parlay @ +100) (9/23/2023 @ 8:00PM ET) This is a big number for Rodriguez, and I know some of you who haven't been with my long term will be uncomfortable with such a price. However; it's important to understand that the UFC is different to the major sports in a sense that -300 is actually not that insane of a price considering you will see -500, -800, and even -1,000 on occasion. We should also note that since joining Doc's Sports, my premium UFC picks that are listed at -250 or higher are 28-6 for +3,025. These have been profitable, but they have lost on occasion. Nothing is a lock in any sport so if this kind of number makes you uncomfortable we would recommend either lowing your unit size for this particular event, or laying off all together until we get back to our usual value volume next event. In terms of the pick; we feel this is a huge mismatch that benefits Marina Rodriguez. These two fought back in in 2021 in a bout which Rodriguez won via unanimous decision. Rodriguez followed that win up with two more wins over the likes of Mackenzie Dern, and Xiaonan Yan before losing her most recent two fights to Amanda Lemos, and Virna Jandiroba. However, we have to understand the level of those losses. Lemos has only lost one of her last eight fights, while Jandiroba has won four of her last five. Both Lemos and Jandiroba have some clear physical advantages over Rodriguez, but that will not be the case here against Michelle Waterson in a fight she must win to keep her relevant in the division. Waterson has lost three straight fights, and five of her last six with only one win since 2019. She is 37 years-of-age and will be at a height and reach disadvantage. She used to get by on enthusiasm and overall heart and determination, but even that has been waning as of late. There is always the concern with Rodriguez that she will not be able to stop the takedown attempts and will spend unnecessary lengths of time on her back, but a trusted source is telling us that she has been working extensively on that in this training camp and has made some clear improvements. We should also add that it doesn't concern us as much as it once did considering MMA judges are rewarding the wrestling less and less these days. The current market price implies approximately a 75% win probability, but we feel this should be closer to 82% which would imply a -450 line. Value is value regardless of the number. We will tie her in with the co-main event matchup between Bryce Mitchell and Dan Ige. This is a styles make fights matchup that should benefit the pace and grappling edges for Mitchell. This line opened at -140 or so and has since been steamed up to the current market price. While we still see value in it straight (as we should) we prefer to lock this in with a parlay to grab the even money price. Assuming Rodriguez comes through, we will essentially be left sitting with a +100 ticket on Bryce Mitchell, and that's solid. Let's do this.
Strike Point Sports had no picks
Jason Sharpe had no picks
Griffin Murphy had no picks
Doc's Sports
7 Unit Play. Take 24802 Rafeal Fiziev -150 over Mateusz Gamrot (8:50pm Saturday September 23th, on ESPN+) Rafael Fiziev has a good chance of beating Mateusz Gamrot in their UFC fight on Saturday for several reasons. Fiziev's exceptional striking skills, defensive abilities, experience, conditioning, and athleticism all contribute to his potential victory. His background in Muay Thai and kickboxing, along with his ability to avoid damage and maintain a high work rate, give him an advantage over Gamrot. Overall, these factors suggest that Fiziev has a solid chance of defeating Gamrot in their upcoming UFC fight.Robert Ferringo had no picks
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
7-Unit Play. Take Jake Collier (+120 @ DK) over Mohammed Usman. (Saturday @ 5:00pm est)Jake Collier (13-9 MMA, 5-8 UFC) steps into the octagon to face off against Mohammed Usman (10-2 MMA, 2-0 UFC) in an eagerly anticipated heavyweight clash. Collier is the more experienced fighter, coming into this fight with 13 UFC fights under his belt, five wins by knockout, four wins by submission, and seven first-round finishes, showcasing his versatility in finishing opponents. Collier also defies heavyweight norms with exceptional cardio, allowing him to sustain a relentless pace throughout his fights. His game plan extends beyond just striking, as he likes to mix in takedowns with his striking volume, presenting a multifaceted challenge for his heavyweight opponents. Usman comes in unbeaten in his short UFC career, with his most recent win earlier this year via decision against Junior Tafa. Usman doesn't have the greatest wrestling skills, but his raw power makes him a terrifying opponent for any fighter. Given the experience, cardio, and grappling advantages, we really like the value on Collier here, and we wouldn't be surprised if this is closer pick'em when the bell rings. Take Collier.
4-Unit Play. Take Charles Jourdain (-140 @ DK) over Ricardo Ramos. (Saturday @ 7:00pm est)
In the Featherweight Division, Charles Jourdain (14-6-1 MMA, 5-5-1 UFC) takes on Ricardo Ramos (16-4 MMA, 7-3 UFC) in an exciting fight between two highly technical fighters. Jourdain boasts a clear edge in the striking department, averaging an impressive 5.78 strikes landed per minute, 49% of which are deemed significant. On the other side, Ramos registers 3.32 strikes per minute, with 38% being significant. Shifting our focus to grappling, Ramos excels with a 2.5 takedown average and an impressive 58% takedown accuracy, while Jourdain lags with a meager 0.1 takedown average and a modest 16% accuracy rate. While Jourdain may not possess Ramos's grappling statistics, he is a highly versatile fighter, holding a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. As the fight progresses, the momentum is poised to tilt decisively in Jourdain's favor, as he plans to maintain a relentless volume of strikes and apply consistent pressure on Ramos. We expect this fight to stay mainly on the feet, so we are rolling with Jourdain in this one. Take Jourdain.
4-Unit Play. Take Rafael Fiziev (-145 @ DK) over Mateusz Gamrot. (Saturday @ 9:00pm est)
Rafael Fiziev (12-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC) and Mateusz Gamrot (22-2 MMA, 5-2 UFC) are set to take center stage as the main event of UFC Fight Night, promising an electrifying showdown in the highly competitive lightweight division. Fiziev boasts a massive striking advantage, averaging an impressive 5.06 strikes per minute, with 51% being significant. Fiziev's impressive resume possesses not only a dozen victories but also includes an impressive tally of 8 knockout wins. In contrast, Gamrot maintains a striking rate of 3.03 landed strikes per minute, with an equal amount of 51% being significant. Gamrot undoubtedly holds the upper hand regarding wrestling skills, with a 4.54 takedown average with 31% accuracy. However, Fiziev has an incredible 90% takedown defense, further solidifying the expectation that this fight will likely remain on the feet, giving a substantial advantage to Fiziev. Fiziev comes into this matchup following his only loss in his last seven fights, a hard-fought battle against UFC champion Justin Gaethje. Fiziev will be determined to rebound and secure a win. Roll with Fiziev here.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
UFC VEGAS 795 Unit Play. Take BRYCE MITCHELL by Points -115 over Dan Ige (8:25p.m., Saturday Sept 23 ESPN+)
Tony George had no picks
Vernon Croy had no picks
Scott Spreitzer had no picks
Doug Upstone had no picks
August Young
4-Unit UFC Two-Fight Parlay: (24810) Marina Rodriguez -320 over Michelle Waterson-Gomez and (24806) Bryce Mitchell -195 over Dan Ige (Two Fighter Parlay @ +100) (9/23/2023 @ 8:00PM ET) This is a big number for Rodriguez, and I know some of you who haven't been with my long term will be uncomfortable with such a price. However; it's important to understand that the UFC is different to the major sports in a sense that -300 is actually not that insane of a price considering you will see -500, -800, and even -1,000 on occasion. We should also note that since joining Doc's Sports, my premium UFC picks that are listed at -250 or higher are 28-6 for +3,025. These have been profitable, but they have lost on occasion. Nothing is a lock in any sport so if this kind of number makes you uncomfortable we would recommend either lowing your unit size for this particular event, or laying off all together until we get back to our usual value volume next event. In terms of the pick; we feel this is a huge mismatch that benefits Marina Rodriguez. These two fought back in in 2021 in a bout which Rodriguez won via unanimous decision. Rodriguez followed that win up with two more wins over the likes of Mackenzie Dern, and Xiaonan Yan before losing her most recent two fights to Amanda Lemos, and Virna Jandiroba. However, we have to understand the level of those losses. Lemos has only lost one of her last eight fights, while Jandiroba has won four of her last five. Both Lemos and Jandiroba have some clear physical advantages over Rodriguez, but that will not be the case here against Michelle Waterson in a fight she must win to keep her relevant in the division. Waterson has lost three straight fights, and five of her last six with only one win since 2019. She is 37 years-of-age and will be at a height and reach disadvantage. She used to get by on enthusiasm and overall heart and determination, but even that has been waning as of late. There is always the concern with Rodriguez that she will not be able to stop the takedown attempts and will spend unnecessary lengths of time on her back, but a trusted source is telling us that she has been working extensively on that in this training camp and has made some clear improvements. We should also add that it doesn't concern us as much as it once did considering MMA judges are rewarding the wrestling less and less these days. The current market price implies approximately a 75% win probability, but we feel this should be closer to 82% which would imply a -450 line. Value is value regardless of the number. We will tie her in with the co-main event matchup between Bryce Mitchell and Dan Ige. This is a styles make fights matchup that should benefit the pace and grappling edges for Mitchell. This line opened at -140 or so and has since been steamed up to the current market price. While we still see value in it straight (as we should) we prefer to lock this in with a parlay to grab the even money price. Assuming Rodriguez comes through, we will essentially be left sitting with a +100 ticket on Bryce Mitchell, and that's solid. Let's do this.Strike Point Sports had no picks
Jason Sharpe had no picks
Griffin Murphy had no picks