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Last Weeks Expert NFL Picks from our handicappers.
Just so the public knows we are always transparent and honest with our reporting, in this spot we will list all of the previous weeks NFL football picks and analysis.
This page will be updated each Thursday at 5AM Eastern.
Doc's Sports4 Unit Play. Take Green Bay Packers -5 over Chicago Bears (1 p.m., Sunday, October 17 FOX) The Packers have won 10 of their last 11 games at Soldier Field, and the disparity at quarterback will be too much for Chicago to overcome. QB Rodgers has gone 20-5 against Chicago and has a 55-10 touchdown to interception ratio in those games. Green Bay has covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 divisional games. QB Fields still makes mistakes, and that will be his undoing in this game. Green Bay is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games in Chicago. The Bears are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record.
3 Unit Play. Take #260 Carolina Panthers +2 over Minnesota Vikings (1 p.m., Sunday, October 17 FOX) Just feel Carolina will bounce back and not lose three straight games. The Panthers should get some skill players back on offense, and a loss he could send them spiraling down. Minnesota struggled to put away Detroit last week at home, and I just do not trust them to win consecutive games. The Vikings are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss in their previous game.
4 Unit Play. Take #264 Detroit Lions +3.5 over Cincinnati Bengals (1 p.m., Sunday, October 17 FOX) Just do not believe the Bengals should be favored over anyone in a true road game. Both teams are coming off heartbreaking losses last Sunday, and sooner or later Detroit will finish off one of these games. The Lions are happy to be back at home, and the Bengals have just been a road favorite twice in the last 4 years. The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. The Bengals have some key people injured on offense and will not be a full strength. Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Detroit is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games during Week 6 of the regular season.
4 Unit Play. Take #268 Cleveland Browns -3 over Arizona Cardinals (4:05p.m., Sunday, October 17 FOX) Arizona is the lone undefeated team in the league but that will end on Sunday against a team that is desperate for a victory. The Cardinals are banged up with key people out on both sides of the football. Cleveland might have the most talented roster in the league, and they cannot afford a loss in this game to drop to 3-3 on the season. The Browns have covered 6 straight games against NFC teams. Arizona is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss in their previous game.
4 Unit Play. Take #270 Denver Broncos -3.5 over Las Vegas Raiders (4:25p.m., Sunday, October 17 CBS) If you have been paying attention this week you realize the issues the Raiders are having. They got beat by an average Bears team at home last weekend and I do not see things getting better this week.
7 Unit Play. Take #272 New England Patriots +3.5 over Dallas Cowboys (4:25 p.m., Sunday, October 17 CBS) TOP NFL PLAY OF THE WEEK Just feel Dallas is due for a regression, having covered the spread in every game that they have played in 2021. Dallas has not won a game in Foxboro since the 1980s, and they have also lost 6 straight games to New England. Also do not believe the Patriots will lose 4 straight home games. This game will go down to the wire, and we will cover the spread with whoever comes out on top. Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. New England is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog.
Robert FerringoTHURSDAY NFL SELECTIONS
1-Unit Play. Take #109 Tampa Bay (-7) over Philadelphia (8 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 14)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 52.5 Tampa Bay at Philadelphia (8 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 14)
Philadelphia is kind of a mess. They are the most penalized team in football and every week it is a mishmash of turnovers, penalties, and altogether poor football play. Tampa Bay is banged up on defense. But they are a lot more buttoned up with their coaching. They will be fine and they will come to play. I can’t say the same about the Eagles, who got blown out while allowing at least 40 points to both the Cowboys and Chiefs, and who should’ve gotten blown out last week by the Panthers. This one has something like 34-23 written all over it.
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #109 Tampa Bay (PK) over Philadelphia (8 p.m.) AND Take #265 L.A. Rams (-2.5) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m.)
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS
5-Unit Play. Take #255 Green Bay (-5) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
I mean, what more do you need to see from this matchup? Aaron Rodgers absolutely owns the Bears and is something like 262-5 against them in his career. OK, so that’s an exaggeration. But not by much. The Packers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games in Chicago and I see them getting a double-digit win here.
2-Unit Play. Take #259 Minnesota (-1.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
Minnesota has played better against a better schedule than Carolina. Remember: going into last season the Panthers were expected to be as bad as Houston is this year. They weren’t. They were a lot more competitive. And they added some pieces in the offseason. But they still aren’t a great team by any stretch. The Vikings have played a bunch of close games against some quality opponents and they are favored on the road in this game for a reason. In fact, this line started with Carolina as the small favorite (not even the token -3) and has swung the other way. That’s kind of a red flag and I will go with the Vikings in this one.
2-Unit Play. Take #262 Baltimore (-2.5) over L.A. Chargers (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
This is somewhat of a situational edge here for the Ravens. As I have pointed out, I hate betting on teams off MNF wins. However, the Ravens get the Chargers at home here for an early kickoff. That means that the Chargers, who are off an emotional comeback win, have to travel across the country for a 10 a.m. PST kickoff and take on a Ravens team that does the things well (run the ball and cause turnovers) that the Chargers traditionally do poorly. The Ravens, like the Packers, have dominated the regular season the last 3+ years specifically because they win low spread games like this. Let’s go back to them here.
3-Unit Play. Take #263 Cincinnati (-3.5) over Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
2-Unit Play. Take #265 L.A. Rams (-9.5) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
Half of the Giants team is injured. Under the best of circumstances I think they would have a hard time keeping up with this talented Rams team. These are not the best of circumstances. The Giants have been one of the worst teams in football over the last five seasons for a reason. The Tom Coughlin Giants would be a great bet as a home underdog like this. Now this team is just fodder.
1-Unit Play. Take #269 Las Vegas (+3.5) over Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
I’m going to buy Las Vegas rallying around Derek Carr. It helps that Denver has been crushed by injuries. But I can see a peak effort from the Raiders in this one after an emotionally trying week.
3-Unit Play. Take #271 Dallas (-3.5) over New England (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
Until I see someone slow down this Dallas offense I’m going right back to them. Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level. His offensive line is one of the best in football. His skill position players are among the best in football. Right now everything is clicking and I don’t see rookie Mac Jones matching Prescott touchdown for touchdown. The Patriots just aren’t very good. Their skill position players are among the worst in football and their offensive line is banged up. There is a dark cloud hanging over this team and I think this spread is being way too generous to a struggling Pats squad.
2-Unit Play. Take #274 Pittsburgh (-5) over Seattle (8 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
I’m not buying into Seattle without Rusty Wilson. That guy was so good and papered over so many weak spots on this roster. Geno Smith isn’t going to get it done. People may have written off the Steelers too early. Big Ben is a train wreck. However, in Mike Tomlin I trust. There is a reason that this guy has never had a losing season. The Steelers still have weapons in the passing game and they should be able to run the ball against a Seahawks defense that can’t stop anyone. The Steelers are playing at home in prime time and I don’t think that Seattle is going to be up to task.
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #254 Indianapolis (-3) over Houston (1 p.m.) AND Take #267 Arizona (+10) over Cleveland (4 p.m.)
This Week’s Totals
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 44.0 Green Bay at Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 45.5 Minnesota at Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
7-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 47.0 Cincinnati at Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
I’m going right back on these two offenses and against these two defenses after getting screwed with my totals play last week. The Bengals and Packers had 30 points in the first half and then couldn’t get out of their own way in the second. Five – FIVE! – missed field goals in the last five minutes and OT were the nail in the coffin of a game that absolutely should’ve gone ‘over’. The Bengals should have no problem moving the ball in the air against a Lions defense and secondary that are a mess. Minnesota was way too stubborn last week, content to run the ball and shorten the game (which played right into Detroit’s hands). The minute the Vikings started throwing the ball they moved it down the field at will. They averaged over eight yards per attempt. Joe Burrow won’t be shy about slinging it around and he should take advantage of this Detroit defense. Cincinnati’s defense has been playing over its head. They gave up 21 points to the Jags (in a game that easily should’ve gone ‘over’) and 25 to the Packers (in another game that should’ve gone ‘over’). The Bengals have gone ‘under’ in four straight and the Lions have gone ‘under’ in three straight and I just don’t see that continuing. I could dive into the ridiculous offensive and defensive yards per point numbers that these two teams have been putting up over the last few weeks but the fact is that they are both due to burst and I think that they will.
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 44.0 Las Vegas at Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 54.5 Buffalo at Tennessee (8 p.m., Monday, Oct. 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #276 Tennessee (+5.5) over Buffalo (8 p.m., Monday, Oct. 18)
We have a Top 5 NFL defense and we have one of the best running games in football. I think that this one is going to be a head-banger. There were 58 points scored last week in the game with the Chiefs, and the Titans don’t have that kind of firepower (or that horrid of a defense). The Titans won’t have enough to win this game. But they will come to play.
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)3-Unit Play. #110. Take Eagles +7 Over Buccaneers (Thursday @ 8:20 pm est)
We roll with the Eagles as a home prime time dog. I think the Bucs are over valued here and we will gladly take the points with the home team. There is always a premium to bet on the Bucs especially in primetime games. Oddly enough Tom Brady is 0-10 ATS in his last 10 prime time games. Let's look at who the Bucs have beaten as of late. They blew out the Dolphins last week who rank 30th in offense and the Patriots the week before who rank 23rd in offense. They were -6 favorites vs Patriots and now face an Eagles team that ranks 3rd in net yards per play and 14th in offense. The Eagles had the Bucs on deck and went into Carolina and faced a very tough defense and took care of business. The Bucs have a ton of key injuries especially on the defensive end and I think Hurts will exploit their issues in the secondary through the air. Great public fade here on prime time to boot. Take the Eagles to hang tough here and get up to face the Bucs at home. Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
3-Unit Play. #252. Take Jaguars +3 Over Dolphins (Sunday @ 9:30 am est)
We like the Jaguars this week and think they are a live dog as one of the only winless teams left with the Lions. I dont think the Dolphins should be laying points to anyone at this point especially when you dive into the stats. Jaguars rank 28th in total yards allowed and the Dolphins rank 30th. The Jaguars rank 28th in points scored and the Dolphins rank 31st. They say Tua likely returns this week but I'm not sure he is a whole lot better then Lawrence and I would argue that he is not. Not only that he is returning from fractured ribs so how sharp will he be? He was not that great to begin with to start the season. So much in the media about Urban Meyer and this Jaguars team have turned on him etc. I'm not so sure. This is still a winless team with professionals and they have pride and I think they show up here in what is a very winnable game for them. The Jaguars have a better running game led by Robinson has rushed for 387 yards, four touchdowns and a 5.8 average per carry. Lawerence also has 110 rushing yards and 2 TD. Put it all together we like the Jaguars to hang tough here and possibly win outright. Teams that are between 0-20% ATS like the Jags are 1-4 ATS 151-111-6 ATS (58%) in Week 6 or later.
3-Unit Play. #264. Take Lions +3.5 Over Bengals (Sunday @ 1:00 pm est)
Another winless team and we like the Lions as short home dogs today. Its an ugly duckling but they are motivated after that heartbreaking defeat last week which was the 2nd last minute game winning FG against them in the last two weeks. Eventually they will have something go their way as their defense has kept them in these games as of late against two tough teams in the Vikings and Ravens. The Vikings were 10 point favorites last week against the Lions and now this week a team very similar in the Bengals are -3.5 favorites. Seems like a red flag to me and this line is off. I think they are catching the Bengals at the right time. Look if you are the Bengals how do you get up for this game coming off a gut wrenching loss to the Packers which they should have won. They missed numerous FG's down the stretch and in OT to lose that game and now you have to face a winless Lions team. Oh wait and the Bengals have the division rival Ravens on deck. Now you head on the road against a non conference opponent. Dan Campbell and the Lions want to win in the worst way and their defense will keep them in this one as it will likely come down to a FG. Take the Lions at home to hang tough and possibly win outright as I dont trust the Bengals as favorites in this spot. Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
7-Unit Play. #268. Take Browns -3 Over Cardinals (Sunday @ 4:05 pm est)
We love the Browns here in this spot following last week's collapse vs the Chargers. We were on the Browns last week and up two TD's they coughed up the game down the stretch. The Browns will be ready for this game as they face the last undefeated team in the league. This is a top ranked defense that allowed 47 points to the Chargers and I expect a much better effort here today as they will be ticked after last week's results. This is the top rushing team in the league and that is what they do best. They face a Cardinals team that has one of the worst rush defenses in the league and the Browns will control the game on the ground. The Cardinals are impressive this year and have to be feeling good about themselves right about now. They come off back to back wins against division foes which gives them any edge needed in a tie breaker situations and game up. The Cardinals typically struggle vs elite teams as they are just 1-5 ATS their last 6 games vs teams with a winning record. The Browns on the other hand are a good bounce back team off a loss as they are 5-1 ATS their last 6 coming off a loss. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are both averaging over 5.0 yards per carry. The Browns rank sixth in points per game this year (28.4), while their defense ranks 14th in pass DVOA and first in rush DVOA. There is one way to keep Kyler Murray in check and this is to run the ball and take the ball out of his hands. That is exactly what the Browns will do here. Not to mention the wind is looking to be in play here which also suggests the Browns will look to the run. The 49ers held the Cardinals to just 17 points last week which is a good sign cause the Browns have a better defense. Chandler Jones for the Cardinals is on the Covid list will be a big loss for the Cardinals. We love going against undefeated teams and this is a prime spot for the Browns here on the bounce back to play well and grab a big win at home. Teams that have scored 36 or more points in their last game and lost are 45-27-1 62.5% in there next game.
3-Unit Play. #269. Take Raiders +3.5 Over Broncos (Sunday @ 4:25 pm est)
We are backing the Raiders here in this spot. Look there are a few different ways you can look at this Raiders team after the Gruden debacle but their performance last week at home was a good indicator and now I think this team will rally around each other and for their new coach. The Raiders have lost back to back games now and were horrible last week at home against a lowly Bears team. That was a good spot for them but with the distraction of everything was likely a factor. This is a divisional game with a low total so this likely becomes a FG type game and with the Raiders off back to back losses they need a win here. The Broncos are hurting at the WR position due to injuries and Derek Carr needs to regain his form from earlier in the season when they started 3-0. Both teams are in similar situations having both started 3-0 and both on losing streaks and I dont think there is alot separating these two teams. The Broncos are not a team that does well in the favorite role. I think the Raiders win one for the gipper and have a chance to win this one outright. Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Broncos are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite.
6-Unit Play #276. Take Titans +5.5 Over Bills (Monday @ 8:15 pm est)
We roll with the Titans here on primetime as this is one of the most lopsided games of the week from a betting perspective. Look the stock could not be any higher then it is right now on the Bills after rolling past KC in KC last week. We were on the Bills for that game but this week we are fading them. This sets up to be a big let down spot for the Bills despite how good they actually are. The public loves the Bills so much so this line opened -3.5 and last year closed -3 and now we are up to -5.5. I think this gives us good value on the home dog here who will get up to face the Bills. We have mentioned before the Titans get up to face good teams and play down to bad teams. The strength here is the Titans run game and that will be the key to facing the Bills and I think Henry will exploit the Bills run defense. The Titans also might get Julio Jones back this week which will help out offensively as well. The Titans are typically always a good team to back as a dog especially at home. This is the last game of the week and the Bills will be the final leg of everyone's parlays and teasers which will make this the biggest liability for the sports books. This is a tough spot for the Bills as this is a back to back road prime time game and likely have a let down. Take the Titans to hang tough here on Monday night. Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)NFL FOOTBALL WEEK #6
3 Unit Play. Take #268 Cleveland -3 over Arizona (4:05p.m., Sunday October 17 FOX)
5 Unit Play. Take #271 Under 51 Dallas at New England (4:25p.m., Sunday October 17 CBS)
NFL Thursday Oct 14
3 Units – #109 / #110 Tampa Bay / Philly (UNDER 52.5) -110 *8:15 EST
Not sure what Philly can bring to the table on offense against this Bucs defense, and they struggled last week for 3 quarters against Carolina’s defense. Philly’s ground game will struggle here against a very good Tampa Bay run defense, and the cover DB’s for Tampa in the passing game will limit QB Hurts options. Brady is not 100% with a bad thumb and Tampa is nursing some injuries to some playmakers on offense. Yes, I know Brady threw for all those TD’s last week but these Thursday game you notice many times are a slugfest between not so sharp teams on offense with only 3 days rest basically, and the offensive gameplans are watered down, which I think Tampa employs tonight. Philly’s offensive line is without 2 starters – Hurts will be under pressure all night. I like the Under.
NFL Sunday Oct 17
6 Units – #268 Cleveland (-3) vs Arizona *4 EST
This where the matchup hurts Arizona’s chances of remaining unbeaten. Are they improved? Yes they are, and Murray is having an MVP year. Cleveland lit up a Charger defense which is every bit as good as AZ if not better and that was on the road. The Browns losses are to KC and the Chargers, respectable losses. Arizona has not seen a defense like this, nor a run game like this and despite being 5-0, there is no way I think the Cards are the best team in the NFL. Kingsbury is due for one of his coaching moments, he can at times be a bad head coach, and I like Cleveland at home in some colder weather and weather says high winds, which benefits the running game. Cleveland the most physical team AZ has seen in my opinion, even more so than the Rams. The only win that is impressive for AZ is the Rams win, they needed a miracle to Beat Minny at home by 1 (Browns beat them by 7 on the road) and Tennessee and Jacksonville are hardly a murderers row of good teams.
3 Units – #274 Pittsburgh (-5) vs Seattle *8:20 EST
Short and Sweet- Russel Wilson makes the Seahawks go. He is out. That is like losing 80% of your offense. Do or die game last week for Pitt against a much better defense of the Bronco’s, and not sure if you all remember just how bad Geno Smith sucked in his career before he fell of the map and now is starting here. Pitt’s defense is no joke and with some new life in them after a win, and having more playmakers and a better offensive blocking scheme to protect Big Ben, I like Pitt at night at home Sunday night. Seattle playing with 1 arm tied behind their back. Pitt a TD better here.
3 Units- #260 Carolina (+1.5) vs Minnesota *1 EST
I cannot accept Minnesota they way they play and drop their guard to win on the road laying a number against a good team. The Vikes needed a miracle to beat lowly Detroit last week. The Panthers should have McCaffery back for this one and with Minny on a bye week upcoming I doubt you see RB Cook as they will give him 2 weeks to recover. The Panther defense is better and off back-to-back losses including letting Philly back in the game and to lose to them last week with a collapse in the second half, I like them at home to get back on track. Minny in my opinion is not a good team. We have the #2 rankled defense in the NFL in yards allowed getting points at home. Lots of love for the Vikings here, it is unwarranted and I think Ruhl is the better coach.
2 Team 6 Point Teaser *1 EST (-120)
4 Units – Tease #264 Detroit UP to (+9.5) and Tease #261 LA Chargers UP to (+9)
NFL – Monday Night Football October 18
5 Units – #275 / #276 Buffalo / Tennessee (OVER 54.5) *8:15 EST
These two team in the last 4 weeks have scored 275 points combined. That is 68 ppg. Enough said. Tennessee’s defense will be helpless to stop Buffalo’s attack and Henry will have a big night running the football on the other side of the offensive coin. That opens up play action passing for Tannehill. Tennessee scored 42 against them last season in Buffalo in a blowout win and Buffalo wants revenge and they will run it up on them if they get a chance, as QB Allen is on fire and the Bills offense is solid with playmakers all over the place and Allen can move the chains with his legs.
Vernon Croy4-Unit Play - #109-110 Tampa Bay/Philadelphia GAME TOTAL UNDER 52.5 -110 (Thursday, October 14, 2021, 8:20 PM)
Take Tampa Bay/Philadelphia GAME TOTAL UNDER as my top NFL pick for Thursday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I expect a low-scoring game here tonight given the way these 2 teams match up against each other. Tampa Bay comes into this game banged up offensively and they have averaged just 21.5 points per game on the road this season. Philadelphia has averaged just 20.5 points per game at home this season and Tampa Bay has stepped up defensively over their last 2 games holding opponents to just 17 points per game. Tampa Bay has allowed just 46 rushing yards per game this season and just 2.9 yards per run and Philadelphia has allowed just 195 passing yards per game this season. Play the UNDER
4-Unit Play - #268 Cleveland -3 -110 over Arizona (Sunday, October 17, 2021, 4:05 PM)
Take Cleveland ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one my top NFL systems and this is a big bounce back spot for Cleveland as they hand Arizona their first loss of the season. Cleveland has allowed just 298 yards per game this season and just the hundred and 74 yards per game at home with opponents averaging just 13.5 points per game against them at home. Cleveland’s opponents have averaged just 110 passing yards per game against them at home this season completing just 49% of their passes against them. Cleveland has also allowed just 76 rushing yards per game this season so you can expect Arizona to take a hit offensively this week. Cleveland has completed 73.1% of their passes at home this season and they have averaged 188 rushing yards per game which will keep this potent Arizona offense off the field. Play Cleveland ATS
7-Unit Play - #255 Green Bay -5 -110 over Chicago (Sunday, October 17, 2021, 1:00 PM)
Take Green Bay ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and Green Bay has converted 42.9% of their 3rd downs this season while Chicago has converted just 32.8% of their 3rd downs. Chicago’s opponents have converted 44.6% on 3rd downs against them this season and Chicago has struggled offensively averaging just 16.8 points per game this season and just 204 yards per game. Green Bay is a red-hot team coming off for straight victories and Chicago simply does not have the offensive power to keep up here Sunday averaging just the hundred and 13 passing yards per game while completing just 60.7% of their passes. Green Bay has averaged 27.3 points per game and 395.3 yards per game over their last 3 games while also holding opponents to just 22.3 points per game and 315 yards per game. Play Green Bay ATS.
6-Unit Play - #275-276 Buffalo/Tennessee GAME TOTAL UNDER 54.5 -110 (Monday, October 18, 2021, 8:15 PM)
Take Buffalo/Tennessee GAME TOTAL UNDER as my top NFL pick for Monday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and Buffalo has allowed just 12.8 points per game this season with opponents averaging just 251.8 yards per game against them. Buffalo has also been great at creating turnovers with opponents averaging 3 turnovers per game against them this season. Buffalo’s opponents have completed just 57.7% of their passes against them this season averaging just the hundred and 73 passing yards per game and just 78 rushing yards per game. I expect Tennessee to step up defensively in this game as they are much better defensively than they have played so far this season. Tennessee has allowed just 340 yards per game at home this season and they held Indianapolis to just 16 points in their last home game. Buffalo’s opponents have converted just 32.3% on 3rd downs against them this season and they just held a very potent Kansas City team to just 20 points in their last game which was on the road. Play the UNDER
Scott Spreitzer4-Unit Play: Take 110 Eagles +7 over Bucs (8:20 p.m., Thursday, October 14)
The Eagles have been buying into Nick Sirianni’s style and they’re off a win at Carolina. Philly’s battle-tested this season and they’ve been money at home where they’ve covered four in a row. Tom Brady and his receiving corps have been amazing again this season but they’re at the bottom of the league in rushing yards and Philly’s strength is defending the pass. Tie-in the Eagles’ balanced offense and I’m betting they give Tampa a run for their money. I’m taking the points with the Eagles on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 262 Ravens -2.5 over Chargers (1 p.m., Sunday, October 17)
Tough spot for the Chargers and not because of the west coast on the east coast spot you might hear about...after all, that is a complete sports betting myth. But instead because of the Chargers recent schedule, beating the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns in successive weeks following a hard-fought 20-17 loss to the Cowboys. We also know now that the wins over KC and Las Vegas aren’t quite as sexy as they looked at the time. The Ravens’ offense is clicking on all cylinders now and they’re an OT loss in week-1 from a 5-0 record. I’m laying the points with Baltimore on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 268 Browns -3 over Cardinals (4:05 p.m., Sunday, October 17)
The Cardinals are in a spot much like Chargers in that they have won a few big games and now must travel while facing a hungry Cleveland team that blew one in L.A. last weekend. Arizona could very easily have lost to SFO last weekend as they were noticeably out-gained, finishing with barely more than 300 yards of offense. Cleveland should be in an awnry mood after scoring more than 40 points and blowing a 14-point lead in the loss to the Chargers. I expect the Browns to run right at the Cardinals’ so-so run defense, setting the tempo and eventually winning by margin. I’m on the Browns minus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
6-Unit Play: Take 272 Patriots +3.5 over Cowboys (4:25 p.m., Sunday, October 17)
Dallas has been impressive in victory and in their one defeat this season, however their last three wins didn’t exactly come against top-shelf opposition and the Giants were a banged-up football team. But as always, throughout the years, if the Cowboys put together a few wins they become overpriced and that’s the situation here. The Patriots played without four of their five offensive line starters last week but all are expected back for this one and I’ve been impressed with Mac Jones. Bill Belichick is 14-4 ATS as a home dog and 26-12 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points and less than 10 no matter the venue. I’m taking the points with the Patriots on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Doug Upstone3 Unit Play. Take OVER 54.5 #257-58 Kansas City vs. Washington (1:00 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
For starters in this AFC-NFC clash, these are the two worst teams in the NFL in points allowed at over 30 PPG. It would seem Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City offense should have no problems reaching the end zone time and again and kicker Harrison Butker will be looking to put the pigskin thru the uprights frequently. Taylor Heinicke has shown he’s a capable QB and while he’s not in the upper tier, Washington is averaging 24.2 PPG, which is respectable. I’m hard-pressed to think WFT doesn’t at least get their average. And at the same time, the Chiefs posting 34 or more points is hardly far-fetched. Lastly, K.C. comes in at 22-10 OVER in road games after averaging 400 or more total yards per game in their last three contests, putting me on the OVER.
3 Unit Play. Take #260 Carolina +2 over Minnesota (1:00 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
There is a good chunk of money coming in on Minnesota, which was flipped from an underdog to a favorite. I understand Carolina has not looked good the last two weeks, yet, they should have knocked off Philadelphia last week and just failed to do so. I like many am no Sam Darnold fan, however, he’s not quite as good as he looked to start the season or as bad as he’s been the last two weeks. This is Minnesota’s first away game in a month; thus, they might be rusty after the comforts of home for so long. And let’s face it, they could easily be 1-4 after a fortunate win last week against Detroit. Keep in mind, the Vikings are 6-19 ATS in road games off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite, with Carolina 8-1 ATS after playing a game at home.
4 Unit Play. Take 264 Detroit +3.5 over Cincinnati (1:00 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
Though both Cincinnati and Detroit suffered hard-to-swallow setbacks last week, you have to feel at least a little sorry for the Lions. New coach Dan Campbell was in tears at his press conference after losing another very winnable game, this time at Minnesota on the final play of the game, again. Campbell is finding out what Lions fans already know, winning never comes easy for this franchise. Granted, Detroit's defense did not make important stops in the final seconds versus both Baltimore and the Vikings which would have led to triumphs. The Bengals kicked themselves to the curb in a bizarre loss to Green Bay. Cincy hung with the Pack and they have a date at Baltimore after this nonconference clash, thus, I question their ability to have great motivation. Detroit is so close to breaking through and this Bengals bunch is 0-6 ATS playing against a team with a win percentage of 25% lower over the last few seasons. Lions secure first win.
6 Unit Play. Take #272 New England +3.5 over Dallas (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
In looking at this key late afternoon matchup, what jumps at me like Jon Gruden emails is Dallas at 5-0 against the spread. That is a hard betting number to sustain, as the markets become bloated on such teams, with bettors expecting unrealistic expectations. The Cowboys have not been a good bet on the road after home victory at 39-59 ATS and could stumble again. Belichick’s bunch had an all-in effort two weeks ago versus the Buccaneers, came out flatter than a leftover Coke sitting open for two days and barely escaped at Houston last Sunday. Look for an inspired effort from New England at home where they are on a 7-0 ATS run as a non-division home underdog.
August Young6-Unit Play: Take #109 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 +100 over Philadelphia Eagles (8:20p.m., Thursday, October 14) Tom Brady who has been the most profitable QB to bet on since 2004 with a 60% ATS record (18.4% ROI) has now failed to cover 8 straight games that have kicked off after 8p.m EST. Tampa Bay are 0-2 ATS on the road this season and just 4-6 ATS as a road favorite with TB12 running the show. When it comes to the Ealges, their defense is average at best and Brady should have ample time in the pocket to scan the field and pick them apart at will. (It's worth noting Brady has a thumb injury but based on our research it's being completely overblown). It's clear that the Eagles are opting to go with a zone heavy defensive approach this season and that is going to cause them all kinds of issues against an offensive team like Tampa Bay if they don't adjust. The Buccaneers have more than 80% of their yards this season coming through the air and we expect it to be even higher tonight. Philadelphia will need to win the one-on-one matchups to get pressure on Brady otherwise this will get ugly and we simply don't think the Eagles are going to be able to keep up with the offensive output for this to stay within the number. Tampa Bay win by double-digits.
4-Unit Play: Take #255 Green Bay Packers -5 -110 over Chicago Bears (1:00p.m., Sunday, October 17) This is a matchup where we think the Bears will bring the exact same approach on both sides of the ball as they have the past few weeks after two-straight win. They will look to utilize Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert to attack the Packers offensive line who currently rank 29th in rush defense. Justin Fields has looked solid under center for the Bears but is being slightly overvalued in our opinion. Green Bay will need to load up against the run (especially on first down) and find a way to pressure Justin Fields. If they are able to do that then the complexion of this game will change drastically. The Packers are 10th when it comes to pass rush win rate while the Chicago Bears are 25th in pass rush defensive win rate. Green Bay should have plenty of opportunity to force the issue from Fields, but as mentioned previously - stopping the rush will be key. As for The Bears defense - we feel it is completely overrated and when you look beneath the surface you'll find that they are 23rd in pass defense and below league average when it comes to overall pass defensive efficiency. That's a formula that brews well for Aaron Rodgers and he should have plenty of opportunities to carve up this Bears defense. This begs that question - if all this plays out, will Fields be able to keep the Bears within the number? We think not, and for that reason show plenty of value on the Green Bay Packers at the current number.
4-Unit Play: Take #271 Over 50.5 -110 in Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots (4:25p.m., Sunday, October 17) Betting totals this season are hitting 73% for +3,130 and how we pick them is very model heavy so there isn't too much to say. The Patriots defense was exposed by Davis Mills and the Houston Texans so Dak Prescott and this elite Cowboys offense should be able to do whatever they want. We do think the Patriots can score enough points here though to help this to cruise over the total. Sharp PPH accounts we monitor are in complete agreement.
6-Unit Play: Take #273 Seattle Seahawks +5 -110 over Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20p.m., Sunday, October 17) This will be the first time Russell Wilson has not been the starting QB for the Seattle Seahawks since 2011 (injured finger) - so they will be forced to go with Geno Smith who looked phenomenal in his short time on the field last week. We don't read too much in to that and isn't all that uncommon considering how the opponent has no real defensive plan to deal with the back up QB leading in to the game. This line does feel blown out of proportion though as we have to remember that Ben Roethlisberger is completely washed and is clearly having troubles getting the ball downfield while accurately reading the defense. Are we 100% certain at this point in his career that Roethlisberger is the better QB? Seems crazy to say that but based on what we've seen of both this season it's difficult to know for sure. Both teams secondary are beatable and we think DK Metcalfe and Tyler Lockett will have plenty of opportunities to make big plays as long as Geno is able to avoid turnovers and continues to play brave. Let's also add that since Pete Carroll took over in Seattle, they have shown a ton of resillience going 44-18 straight up after a loss as well as 64% ATS! This line should be much closer to 3 and perhaps closer to a pickem'. The value is on the Seahawks with extensive rest and we have to hit it at this number with so many unknowns.
Best of luck - August
Allen Eastman7-Unit Play. Take #262 Baltimore (-3) over Los Angeles Chargers (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
Two of the best teams in the AFC are taking each other on in Week 6 and I am going with the Ravens. Both teams are coming off big comeback wins, with the Chargers coming back from 14 points down to beat the Browns and the Ravens coming back from 16 points down to beat the Colts on Monday. The Chargers have won three straight games and the Ravens have won four straight games. I think that the Ravens have a big advantage here playing at home. The Chargers have been home the last two weeks and three of their last four weeks. This is the first time that they have to fly East to play in an early kickoff since their Week 1 close win over Washington. The Ravens have one of the best home field advantages in the NFL. They have been one of the best regular season teams in the league over the last four years and they are 39-14 SU in their last 53 games. The Chargers have the weakest run defense in the NFL and I think that they will struggle against Baltimore’s powerful running game here. Baltimore is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games and 7-3 ATS against teams from the AFC. They have covered four of five at home and are 5-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. Take the Ravens here.
4-Unit Play. Take #265 Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) over New York Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
I will lay the points here. The Rams are looking up at Arizona in the standings. Los Angeles has three easy games in a row coming up though, taking the Giants, Lions and Texans. This will give them a great chance to get back into first place. The Giants have been hit hard by the injury bug. Daniel Jones is coming back from the concussion protocol but I don’t know that he will be 100 percent this Sunday and he will struggle against Aaron Donald and the Rams front. One more big hit on Sunday might put Jones out. New York is also without several other important offensive players like Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay. In fact, the Giants have 23 players listed either on IR or on their injury report. That’s nearly half of their roster! If the Giants were fully healthy they would have a hard time beating the Rams. Without their best players this one should be another blowout similar to their 44-20 loss at Dallas last week.
3-Unit Play. Take #270 Denver (-3.5) over Las Vegas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
The Raiders are a mess. Jon Gruden was fired this week and that was a huge shock to this franchise. They are going with rookie head coach Rich Bisaccia. He has been a football coach for 38 years and has never been a head coach. What does that tell you?? Las Vegas has lost back-to-back games and they have significant injury issues in their secondary. Denver has Teddy Bridgewater back under center and they are a much better team with him at the helm. The Broncos have a great home field advantage and the home team is 8-2 ATS in this series. The Raiders are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games and they are 1-4 ATS on the road. Denver is 12-5 ATS after a loss and I like them to get the job done here.
4-Unit Play. Take #271 Dallas (-3.5) over New England (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
Dallas has one of the best offenses in the NFL right now. That is going to be tough for the Patriots to stop. New England was lucky to get a win last week and needed a big comeback to beat the Texans. The Patriots have been below .500 since Tom Brady went to Tampa Bay and this team does not look like a contender in the AFC at all. New England has struggled running the ball and that is unlike Bill Belichick teams. Dallas is No. 5 against the run on defense this year. That means that Mac Jones will have to win this game and I don’t think that he will be better than Dak Prescott here. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS this season and they have been undervalued this year. That is a surprise since the Cowboys are always overvalued. This line opened with Dallas -1 and it has been bet up through the key number of 3.0. That tells me that the sharp money is on the Cowboys and that there is still value with this team.
5-Unit Play. Take #275 Buffalo (-5.5) over Tennessee (8 p.m., Monday, Oct. 18)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
The Bills have been the most dominant team in the NFL this year. They are No. 1 in points scored and they are No. 1 in points allowed and they have outscored their opponents by nearly 22 points per game! The Bills lost their Week 1 game to Pittsburgh. Since then they have won four games in a row by at least 18 points and their average victory during this streak is by 28.8 points per game! Tennessee has really struggled. They have played the two worst teams in the NFL in the last two weeks. They lost to the Jets and they were able to hold on against the Jaguars last week. The Titans defense has taken a big step back and they are ranked No. 21 in total defense and No. 24 in points allowed. Julio Jones has not had a positive impact on the Titans offense and Tennessee is No. 26 in the league in passing offense. Last year the Bills were blown out 42-16 in Tennessee on Oct. 13. They will want revenge just over a year later! The Bills are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games and they are 6-1 ATS on the road. The Bills are 7-3 ATS as a road favorite and I like them to get a 10-point win here. Take Buffalo.
Strike Point SportsNFL Plays:
2-Unit Play. Take #265 Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) over New York Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17th)
Typically we like to take the Giants when no one is giving them a shot, but not in this matchup. The Rams defense will smother this banged up Giants offense. News out of New York is that Daniel Jones may play, but he will be without Galloday, Barkley, and a slew of other offensive talent. The Giants will play hard in this game but they just won’t have the ability to keep pace. The Rams defensive front is going to force Jones (if he plays) to make decisions quicker than he will want to resulting in some bad turnovers. The Rams traveling across the country for an early start won’t impact the team as the coaching staff does a good job of preparing the players for just this situation. Lay the points here as the Rams beat the Giants 31-13.
7-Unit Play. Take #268 Cleveland (-3) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17th)
This is a big spot for the Browns. Yes, the Cardinals are having a fantastic season, and they look every bit the part of one of the best teams in the league but this is where their undefeated record comes to a halt. This is going to be a great game but in the end it's the fact that the Browns can control the clock with their rushing attack that will be the difference. The Browns defense is better than it showed versus the Chargers. Los Angeles scored touchdowns on their last four possessions and gave up two touchdowns in the last 3:23 of the game. Look for the Cleveland defense to shore itself up and limit Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense enough to win and cover this line. The Browns haven't lost back-to-back games under Kevin Stefanski, and that streak continues this weekend. The Browns are the play in this matchup as Arizona is just 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records while the Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.
4-Unit Play. Take #271 Dallas (-3.5) over New England (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17th)
The Cowboys are rolling right now and the Pats won’t have an answer. We know that the Patriots and Coach Bill have a tremendous ATS record when they are getting points, but this team does not have the likes of Tom Brady to save them. Yes, New England gave the Bucs a game when they were dogs, but that game had so much drama associated with it that the Patriots kept it close. This game won’t be like that one. The Cowboys are averaging over 35 points a game and over 200 yards rushing during their four-game winning streak, and although we don’t see those numbers in this one they will still have an impressive offensive output. Lay the points in this one as the Cowboys continue to win/cover games.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 54.5 Buffalo at Tennessee (8:15 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17th)
The Titans are going to give the Bills a run. We do like Buffalo to win but we aren’t totally sold on that thought. Instead of making a play on a side, we are going with the total. The Titans have the ability to keep the Bills off balance with their rushing attack (Henry) and the possibility of having AJ Brown and Julio Jones both playing. If Jones is unable to play the Titans will still have enough success offensively to flirt with the 30 point mark. We see this game finishing around 60 points as the Bills win a great game 33-30.
Best of Luck – Strike Point Sports
Sunday October 17th 2021
5 Unit Play Take #268 Cleveland -3 over Arizona (4:05pm est):
The Cleveland Browns are 3-2 on the season but very easily could be unbeaten coming into this game. The Browns went on the road to Kansas City to open the season and lost a late lead in a game they outplayed the Chiefs but lost 33-29. Overall it was an impressive but they ended up handing the game over to KC by turning the football over on their side of the field twice that led to 10 points for KC. The Browns rattled off three straight wins but suffered another tough loss last week in another game that they led most of the way only to allow two late touchdowns in a 47-42 defeat. This is a big test here at home going against the only undefeated team in the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals beat San Francisco last Sunday by a 17-10 score. The Niners went with rookie quarterback Trey Lance in that game and he struggled like most rookie QB's do when making their 1st career start and on the road versus a quality opponent like Arizona. The Cardinals lost pro bowl center Rodney Hudson in that game to an injury and he will be out for this contest which is huge. There's also reports coming from Arizona that they have a few guys dealing with covid including Chandler Jones. There's no word yet if Jones or any others will be out for this game but if so he would be a huge loss.
Play on Cleveland minus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #273 Seattle +5 over Pittsburgh (8:20pm est):
It's been extremely profitable over recent years to bet on a team in the NFL that's missing their starting quarterback as the betting markets tend to overvalue the loss of these guys especially in the first full game without him playing. The key though is to make sure it's a decent organization and overall the offense has shown it has the ability to move the football. We have both of those things going for us here in this one as the Seattle Seahawks have won 9 games or more in a regular season for each of the past 9 years and who currently rank 5th overall in offensive DVOA this season. Veteran quarterback Geno Smith will take the reins for the Seattle in this game and he will have a full week to prepare for this game. Most would be surprised to learn he's 9-3-2 against the spread when an underdog of 4 or more points in his career. The Pittsburgh Steelers struggle in this role as a favorite failing to have covered the spread any of their last 6 times in this spot.
Take Seattle plus the points.
Thank you and good luck,
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