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Last Release of Expert NFL Picks from our handicappers.
Just so the public knows we are always transparent and honest with our reporting, in this spot we will list all of the previous weeks NFL football picks and analysis.
This page will be updated each Thursday at 5AM Eastern.
Get free NFL Picks including expert parlays picks for betting NFL games this week against the spread.
Doc's Sports
7 Unit Play. Take #465 Tennessee Titans +3.5 over Chicago Bears (1p.m., Sunday, September 8 FOX) TOP NFL PLAY OF THE WEEKEND The Bears are just not a team you can trust as a favorite when they are expected to perform. Tennessee has great wide out and if they get any type of quarterback play, they will likely win this game straight-up. Will Levis has a year of experience on Caleb Williams and that is a big factor that we will not overlook. Finally, Chicago is 2-8 outright in their last 10 opening games the last decade.3 Unit Play. Take #449 Los Angeles Rams +4.5 over Detroit Lions (8:20p.m., Sunday, September 8 NBC) The Rams were sneaky good last season and should be even better in 2024. They have nailed the draft the last couple of years and that has allowed them to get on the right side of the cap. They won 10 games last season, and I see them taking this game right down to the wire. Detroit is loaded as well, but I do not trust their coach in close games. Week One is always unpredictable with upsets and I feel this could be one of those games.
Robert Ferringo
THURSDAY NFL SELECTION2-Unit Play. Take #452 Kansas City (-2.5) over Baltimore (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 6)
I’ll bite on the Chiefs here. This number has dropped below a field goal and I can see it being a three-point game either way. Frankly, Kansas City has been better in big games like this than John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson have been. The Ravens had more turnover in the offseason – on the roster and the coaching staff – than the Chiefs. Throw in the home field edge and the fact that we are below a key number here and this one is worth a nibble.
FRIDAY NFL SELECTIONS
2-Unit Play. Take #454 Philadelphia (-2) over Green Bay (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 6)
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 49.0 Green Bay at Philadelphia (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 6)
I think that the Eagles are undervalued this season. I really think this team has a loaded roster on both sides of the ball. I think that they really missed their OC and DC last season and I like the guys that they brought in this offseason. Don’t forget: Green Bay was 3-6 to start last season. They have a lot of offseason hype based on how they finished last year. But I don’t know that they are going to pick right up where they left off. This is one of the youngest teams in the league and there is no telling how they are handling this trip to Brazil, either. I think that this is going to be a bit of a sloppy game and I don’t see either offense being at their best in unfamiliar territory. I like the Eagles to grind this one out.
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS
4-Unit Play. Take #456 Miami (-3.5) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
I’ll buy Miami. In September. Call me in January and it will probably be a different story. I respect Mike McDaniel as a head coach and I think he’s going to have his guys ready to go. This is Year 3 in his system so things should be set to take off for the Dolphins. I also thought they looked a lot more physical on defense in the preseason. And everyone seems to be happy that Vic Fangio is gone on that side of the ball. I think that a healthy Jalen Ramsey will be able to lock down Christian Kirk and Trevor Lawrence struggled last season when his No. 1 option wasn’t 100 percent.
1-Unit Play. Take #470 Indianapolis (+3) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
1-Unit Play. Take #471 Las Vegas (+3) over L.A. Chargers (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
I know that the Chargers have revenge for the savage beating that the Raiders gave them the last time they squared off. That revenge motivation is the only reason that this play isn’t rated a lot higher. I think the Chargers roster is pretty bad. I think Jim Harbaugh will turn this organization around – but it is going to take time.
6-Unit Play. Take #478 Cleveland (-2.5) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
Dallas is starting two rookies on the offensive line. I don’t think that’s going to go great against this Cleveland defense. The Browns were dominating on that side of the ball and I think they are going to pick up where they left off. Dallas’ running back room is weak. Their line is young and rebuilding. They didn’t have CeeDee Lamb through camp. Their quarterback is disgruntled. They lost their defensive coordinator. There are just a lot of very bad vibes surrounding this Cowboys team. I think that DeShaun Watson is a huge scumbag and a loser as a QB. But I like Cleveland’s weapons better, I like their offensive system better, I like their offensive line better, and I like the fact that they are playing at home. The Cowboys have dominated clown show teams that can’t fight back over the last few years. The Browns can hit back. And I like a TKO from Cleveland here in a game I have around 20-13.
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #465 Tennessee (+11) over Chicago (1 p.m.) AND Take #471 Las Vegas (+10) over L.A. Chargers (4 p.m.)
2-UnitPlay. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #467 Arizona (+13.5) over Buffalo (1 p.m.) AND Take #481 N.Y. Jets (+11) over San Francisco (8 p.m.)
This Week’s Totals
3-UnitPlay. Take ‘Under’ 49.5 Jacksonville at Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 42.0 Pittsburgh at Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 44.5 Tennessee at Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 47.0 Arizona at Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 41.0 Dallas at Cleveland (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 52.5 L.A. Rams at Detroit (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTION
2-Unit Play. Take #481 N.Y. Jets (+4.5) over San Francisco (8 p.m., Monday, Sept. 9)
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 44.5 N.Y. Jets at San Francisco (8 p.m., Monday, Sept. 9)
I’ll bite on the Jets. The whole idea is that if Aaron Rodgers is healthy this team has a defense and enough skill pieces to compete. Well, Rodgers is healthy. Unless he blows out some other body part in the first game of the season. I think he’s going to move the chains well enough but I don’t see a lot of explosive plays from either side. Super Bowl losers haven’t been great bets in Week 1 of the regular season
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
7-Unit Play. #476. Take Seattle Seahawks -6 over Denver Broncos (Sunday @ 4:05pm est)These teams were 8-9 and 9-8 last year so they were about even. Seattle comes in as a solid chalk here but we absolutely believe that Wilson, Stidham or Bo Nix is not the answer here. What is the answer though is Mike Macdonald and Geno Smith. Lot of consistency here for the Seahawks organization, a defensive minded coach who has recruited a great offensive minded coaching staff as well and we love for the Seahawks to have success in their home opener. Both these teams had success in the pre-season but MacDonald is a special coach, he has worked for both Harbaughs and that is the reason why the Seahawks went all in on him and we love the Seahawks to bust out for a huge win here as we love the defensive schemes that MacDonald is likely to put together for this game with a veteran QB like Geno Smith, they should do well.
6-Unit Play. #469. Take Over 48.5 Houston vs. Indianapolis (Sunday @ 1pm est)
Houston won 23-19 last time these two teams met but there is a lot going on here. For starters, the Colts could win this game outright which we love, we have them as active underdogs here, the Colts were quite strong even with Richardson hurt and now with him back healthy, we have them as solid underdogs here, pushing the tempo and therefore we love an over here.
4-Unit Play. #471. Take Under 40.5 Vegas vs. LA Chargres (Sunday @ 4:05pm est)
Vegas beat this team 63-21 last year and we love Harbaugh to prove something here. Vegas was 8-9 and won 3 of their last 4 games and now with their first full season with their head coaching staff and given that the Chargers 5-12 we absolutely love Harbough to focus on the defense first and foremost, focus on ball control like he always does, and not ask Herbert to do much here and remembers that 63 point total that this team gave up to Vegas last year and therefore love the Under here.
4-Unit Play. #479. Take LA Rams +4.5 over Detroit Lions (Sunday @ 8:20pm est)
The Rams were 10-7 last year, they nearly beat Detroit on the road, with McVay still coaching the Rams won 7 of 8 before losing in playoffs as it was a spectacular run. We love the Rams here with that revenge, that focus as we believe they start out this season strong right out of the gates and look for a solid Rams cover here and quite possibly an outright win.
4-Unit Play. #461. Take Over 41.5 Carolina vs. New Orleans (Sunday @ 1pm est)
Carolina put up 0 points last 2 games and the only thing that this ownership wants to see I promise you is points, they do not even care if they lose by a million points in this game it seems, they just want to see points as Carolina put up 0 points against Tampa Bay and Jacksonville. We love this new head coach, a former offensive coordinator for Tampa Bay, who knows New Orleans well, to come in and put up some points with this young quarterback and similar to how he developed Baker, he will develop his young Carolina QB and we love Carolina to be an active underdog and send this game over the posted total.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
NFL WEEK #14 Unit Play. Take #451 Under 46.5 Baltimore at Kansas City (8:20p.m., Thursday September 5 NBC)
NFL Week #1 kicks off Thursday night and I see defense being the key in this game. It’s revenge game since the Chiefs beat the Ravens 17-10 in the AFC Championship in Baltimore last year and that game went ‘Under’ the total. Baltimore will want to run the ball Thursday night and with new edition of Derrick Henry I see the Ravens running the ball all night long. The Raven’s defense has been really good year after year, and I just don’t see points coming easy tonight. The Ravens are 2-5 O/U last 7 road games, and the Chiefs are 5-12 O/U last 17 games.
3 Unit Play. Take #462 New Orleans -4 over Carolina (1:00p.m., Sunday September 8 FOX)
How improved are the Carolina Panthers this year? The Saints were not impressive during the preseason but if are the Saints you will need to make a statement game at home in Week #1. Last year at the Caesars Superdome the Saints beat the Panthers 28-6 and I see the Saints winning by double-digits.
5 Unit Play. Take #480 Detroit -4 over Los Angeles Rams (8:20p.m., Sunday September 8 NBC)
The Detroit Lions start the season at home against the Los Angeles Rams and I see home field being the key. Jared Goff has been nothing but brilliant at home and he is averaging 280 passing yards per game at home. I know that Goff is really good at home, but they win this SNF game because of two things. First thing, the Lions defense will be too much for the Rams offense and second, I see the Lions running ball with success. Detroit is 6-1 ATS last 7 games and the Lions are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games.
Tony George
NFL
Thursday
9/5/24
2 Units
#452 Kansas City (-2.5) over Baltimore *8:20 EST
Revenge on the Ravens mind and a heck of a AFC matchup, but the line dropped from -3 to -2.5 on KC here. The moneyline is -145 and you could go that route, but KC at home with more weapons on offense in 2024 and a defense that knows how to shut down Jackson on the ground and I like KC.
Mahomes is the better QB despite what people say, as he can close out big games, as proven over and over in his tenure here and Jackson and company fade in big moments. Two good coaches no doubt, but KC has skill players and speed at WR, which basically they were average at best last year and still won the Super Bowl. Not sold on RB Henry for the Jags being the go-to guy, and KC has been able to beat Tennessee in the post season with him at RB when he was there. KC lost the Thursday opener last year to Detroit, I do not see them losing back-to-back season openers on a Thursday prime time game.
Sunday
9/8/24
6 Units
#456 Maimi (-3.5) over Jacksonville *1 EST
I like Miami a lot this Sunday. Their offense will produce against the Jags defense, ex-specially through the air. Tua is elusive in the pocket and can move the chains with his run ability, and the Jags secondary is average at best. I expect the 1-2 punch at WR for the Dolphins at home to pay dividends and I expect aggressive play calling on their end. I have never been a big fan of Lawerence at QB for the Jags and their head coach is overrated in my opinion. Miami on offense at home can really get it going and with the Jags having a new DC and different schemes on defense to learn, Miami is the worst-case scenario for them to open up with. You could buy the hook down to -3 for -120 if you care, but I think the Fish at home win by a TD+.
4 Units
#458 Atlanta (-3) vs Pittsburgh *1 EST
Tomlin the better coach in this game but Atlanta is stacked and should win their division. Kirk Cousins, while do not like him, just simply wins regular season games, always has, and Atlanta will win this division wityh him at QB. ATL is stacked at RB with one of the best 1-2punches in football. Both teams will pound the rock here. I did not see one thing out of Russell Wilson in the past 2 years including this preseason that instills confidence there and no outside threat besides Pickens for Pitt. Atlanta’s defene is solid as well and they are good at home. Might sniff the Under here as a side thought as Pitt will pound Harris as much as they can.
3 Units
#471 / #472 Las Vegas / LA Chargers (UNDER40) *4 EST
I see Harbaugh doing what he does, good defense and pound the rock. I also see Las Vegas struggling on offense with Minshew at QB and frankly not a good offensive plan. This has 14-10, 21-14 written all over it. Not sure what LA has in the tank as downfield threats as they traded away all their playmakers from last year including their playmaker at RB. Herbert yet to prove himself as he cannot stay healthy and has a toe injury. Both coaches have the same take – pound the rock non stop and play good defense, and both clock eating type schemes. This dropped from 42 for a reason, and it should be a game in the mid to low 30’s.
2 Team 6 Point Teaser
3 Units (-120) *1 EST
Tease #467 Arizona UP to (+12.5) and tease #476 Seattle down to a (PK)
Vernon Croy
7-Unit Play - #451 Baltimore +3-110 over Kansas City (Thursday, September 5, 2024, 8:20 pm ET)Take Baltimore ATS as my top NFL pick for Thursday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Baltimore in the spot here tonight especially with what they have done in the off-season. I feel that Baltimore is one of the most complete teams in the NFL and they will be absolutely unstoppable offensively. This is an extremely tough spot for Kansas City to open their season defending their championship against one of the best teams in the NFL. Kansas City dominated the time possession the last time these two teams played by 15 minutes and yet they still only won that game by 7 points which should be very troublesome for Kansas City bettors here Thursday. Baltimore also had 65 more penalty yards in that loss and Mahomes really couldn't have played any better completing 77% of his passes and yet they still only won that game by seven points. This is a much better Baltimore team coming into this season and I believe it will take a few games for Kansas City to get rolling with 3 new additions offensively. Kansas City did sputter offensively in their first game of the season last year putting up just 20 points in that one-point loss to Detroit. This is also a big revenge spot for Baltimore and they definitely should have won that game against Kansas City so you know they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder here tonight. Play Baltimore ATS as we move to 36-18 +$10,410 with my last 54 NFL plays on Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football. If you haven't already done so make sure that you grab my football package right now. I have had 8 of 9 winning NFL regular seasons and I have never been more prepared for what I know will be a great season.
4-Unit Play - #453 Green Bay +2-110 over Philadelphia (Friday, September 6, 2024, 8:20 pm ET)
Take Green Bay ATS as my top NFL pick for Friday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Green Bay in this spot, especially in a neutral setting. Hurts was interception prone last season throwing a career high 15 interceptions which was 9 more than the previous year. I believe this Green Bay defense will definitely be one of the best in the NFL this season and although I believe Philadelphia will end up being the better team, they are not right now to start the season. Green Bay is absolutely stacked offensively as well and I definitely look for them to get off to a quick start here Friday. Play Green Bay ATS
6-Unit Play - #467 Arizona +6.5-110 over Buffalo (Sunday, September 8, 2024, 1:00 pm ET)
Take Arizona ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I would not be shocked to see Arizona win this game outright on the road here Sunday. I believe that Arizona is much improved on both sides of the ball coming into the season. Murray will have adequate time behind center this season with the additions they have made to the offensive line. Murray completed 65.7% of his passes last season and I do expect this to be his best year under center for Arizona after what was an injury plagued year for him. Murray is healthy coming into the season and I do expect him to put up similar numbers like he did back in 2021 as they did bolster this offensive line for him. I really feel like this is a bad spot for Buffalo especially against a much-improved Arizona defense. This is an Arizona defense that allowed 26.8 points per game last season so they made significant changes which will be seen immediately in this game against Buffalo and this is a much different Buffalo team offensively with the loss of two key wide receivers. Play Arizona ATS.
5-Unit Play - #482 San Francisco -4.5-110 over New York (Monday, September 9, 2024, 8:20 pm ET)
Take San Francisco ATS as my top NFL pick for Monday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like San Francisco in the spot at home. San Francisco is hands down the superior team here Monday on both sides of the ball and I definitely expect them to take care of business. New York will improve as the season goes along but right now they are not even comparable to San Francisco. San Francisco allowed just 17.5 points per game last season which was second best defensively in the NFL. New York averaged just 15.8 points per game last season and although yes, they are much better offensively with who they have under center it will take time for this offense to get rolling which will definitely not happen in week one against one of the best defenses in the NFL. San Francisco averaged 28.9 points per game last season and this team will not skip a beat offensively. Meanwhile I believe New York is not as good defensively coming into the season as they were last season. Play San Francisco ATS
Scott Spreitzer
2-Unit 6-point, 2-team teaser: 464 Bengals -2.5 to 470 Colts +9 (1 p.m., Sunday, September 8)Joe Burrow is healthy and Ja’Marr Chase has been upgraded to probable. The Bengals are healthy and have a top tier offense to attack a Patriots’ squad that I don’t believe will be able to keep up with Jacoby Brissett at QB. The Patriots have one of the bottom three offenses in the league on paper and I’m betting it translates onto the field. I’m laying two points with Cincinnati.
I’m teasing the Colts up to nine. Houston beat Indy 23-19 in the final week of the season last year with a playoff appearance on the line. The Texans were a one-point favorite. They’re now laying three and for teaser purposes it’s nine. Indy didn’t have Anthony Richardson in that game but they do in week-one. I expect the Colts to run the football with success. My 2-team, 6-point teaser: Bengals to Colts. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
7-Unit Play: Take 461 Panthers +4 over Saints (1 p.m., Sunday, September 8)
QB Bryce Young had one of the weakest WR rooms in the league last year and Carolina struggled from start to finish. The Panthers addressed the issue in the off-season, drafting TE Ja’Tavion Sanders and WR Xavier Legette. Defensively, Carolina was a tough nut to crack through the air, one of the top-six pass defenses in the league and they made big improvements in the off-season which should pay dividends against the run. The Saints struggled in both third down efficiency and red zone effectiveness last season and I see nothing to make me think they’ll improve in those categories. The Saints have the worst offensive line in the league according to PFF, while the Panthers have made massive upgrades up front. I like the hiring of HC Dave Canales and I’m not a fan of Saints’ HC Dennis Allen who has a career SU win percentage of less than .350, while covering just 24 of 66 games. Week-one divisional dogs have been quite profitable and I’ll back one here. I’m taking the points with Carolina. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 478 Browns -140 (Moneyline) over Cowboys (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
Dallas had a noisy off-season and they’re green up front. The Cowboys will start two rookies on the offensive line, including at left tackle. The young rookies will be quickly and rudely introduced to last year’s best total defense in the league. The Browns won and covered their final six home games last season and went 8-1 SU/ATS at home overall. I’m backing the Browns on the moneyline. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 481 Jets +4.5 over 49ers (8:20 p.m., Monday, Sept. 9)
San Francisco had a noisy off-season with Brandon Aiyuk’s situation and arguably more important, the issues with Trent Williams. The top OLT in the league finally signed but he’s likely not in game shape. QB Brock Purdy has been so-so in camp and RB Christian McCaffrey is already listed as questionable with a calf injury. The Jets’ defense is expected to be outstanding again while the offense has a healthy Aaron Rodgers and RB Breece Hall. SFO finished last season 26th in defensive rush EPA and they’ll be missing Armstead (signed with Jax) with injuries to boot. Hall should benefit. The Jets should benefit. I’m taking the points with the Jets. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
August Young
[NFL] [7-Unit] (452) Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-115) over Baltimore Ravens (9/5 @ 8:20PM EST) The NFL is back and we couldn't be more excited with an awesome rematch of the AFC title game from last season. We expect the Chiefs to be better this season, specifically on the offensive end (an area they struggled with at times in 2023). Too much is being made of the 'revenge' angle for Lamar Jackson and the fact that the Ravens had a 5.9 to 4.4 edge in yards per play. We should also note that defending SB champions are 20-4 SU in Week 1, which includes going 14-9-1 ATS. There is also an interesting trend worth noting: Week 1 underdogs that had a winning record the previous season are only winning at a 23.7% clip when listed as road dogs. This includes going an awful 37.4% ATS. Fading them in such situations would have produced a 62.6% ATS win rate for a +19.5% ROI. Value on KC![NFL] [4-Unit] (455) Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 (-115) over Miami Dolphins (9/8 @ 1:00PM EST) Miami are an overvalued team to start the season, and are a stock I will be looking to sell. They looked awful to end last season going 0-3 SU and ATS, and get the public vote based on their explosive offense. We rate Tua and Trevor Lawrence somewhat even, and believe the ceiling is higher with more improvement to come from Lawrence. There is also a solid trend worth mentioning; small Week 1 road underdogs that had less wins than their opponent in the previous season are covering at a 62.6% clip for a +19.5% ROI. What's more impressive is the fact that they've actually managed to outscore their opponents 27.5 to 26.87 in such situations. Go Jags!
[NFL] [4-Unit] (482) San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-125) (1H) over New York Jets (9/9 @ 8:20PM EST) Aaron Rodgers is 40-years-old, and coming off an injury while playing one of the best teams in the league. There is a lot of hype surrounding what is supposed to be the best Jets teams in recent memory, but until they prove it first, we show clear value on San Francisco, especially in the first half as Rodgers takes time to settle in. Purdy didn't look great in the pre-season, but you can't take too much from that, and he's proven himself time and time again. This is still the same 49ers team that ranked 1st in YPP margin and YPG differential. Solid value.
Strike Point Sports
3-Unit Play. Take #465 Tennessee (+4) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 45 Tennessee at Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
The hype that the Bears are getting is significant, but it has also inflated this line to where the value now lies on the underdog Titans. Tennessee added seven new starters to the defensive side of the football, and they will be a unit that is undervalued early in the season. Chicago has a truly talented wide receiving core. This is a group that is considerably better than anything that Justin Fields saw during his time in Chicago. Caleb Williams should make some big plays in this game, but in the end the points are just too valuable. Will Levis and the Titans offense will push the ball down field early and often against a Bears defense that struggled to generate much pressure last season. This will be one of the more exciting games of the weekend as the Titans keep this game within the number and the two teams push the total into the 50s.
7-Unit Play. Take #478 Cleveland (-2.5) over Dallas (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
There are plenty of red flags with this game that make me like the Browns even more. The public money that is on this game is hedging towards the Cowboys, and yet the line is going towards Cleveland. Whenever you see opposite line movement you have to take a long hard look at why it is doing so. The Cleveland Browns are going to win this game on the line of scrimmage. Yes, they will be without Nick Chubb, but they still have plenty of weapons, and they have home field advantage here. The Cowboys did not get a lengthy preseason of Dak Prescott to Ceedee Lamb, and that is not a good thing. The 'Boys will still have some solid stats out of the dynamic duo, but the lengthy hold out will have its ramifications in this game. Cleveland is 6-0 straight up over their last six home games, and with this line being so low, a win should take care of the ATS victory. The Cowboys on the other hand have lost four of their last six season openers and that trend will follow suit this Sunday. If this game was in Dallas it would be a different story, but the Browns, at home, on opening weekend, with a small line...Book it! Take the home team in this matchup.
3-Unit Play. Take #479 Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) over Detroit (8:20 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
The Lions were the darlings of the 2023 NFL season and they absolutely have a great shot to replicate that success, but I really like the Rams here. Yes, LA has a lot stacked against them as the Lions are at home, and they have Super Bowl aspirations, but this is a very dangerous number, and I love the value on the road team. Sean McVay is an ATS wizard when it comes to week 1 of the regular season as he has covered six of seven opening weekend games. The Lions have one of the better offenses in the NFL, but the LA Rams can match them both in the air and on the ground. Cooper Kupp looks as healthy as he's been since his triple crown season, and Puka Nacua has returned to health following his full practice on Wednesday. Matt Stafford and the Rams will match the Lions punch for punch when it comes to the afore mentioned receiving core as well as the one/two rushing punch of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. The Lions are one of the best in the NFC, and they just dominate their home field, but the Rams are the play in this early season matchup.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
NFL-Sunday September 8th 2024-
4 Unit Play Take #458 Atlanta -3 over Pittsburgh (1:00pm est):
(-3 is at Bookmaker, SuperBook and BetOnline)
I think this might be the perfect week one matchup as it pits my most overrated team from last NFL season (Pittsburgh) going up against my most underrated team (Atlanta). The Steelers somehow finished the 2023 regular season as a playoff team posting a 10-7 record overall. Pittsburgh caught nearly every break imaginable last year while going 9-2 in one score games. They face off in this one against an Atlanta team that finished just 7-10 overall in 2023. Incredibly all 17 Atlanta Falcon games last year were lined between -3.5 and +3 points meaning every week was basically expected to be a toss-up game. Overall Atlanta had horrific luck last season between many head scratching coaching decisions from former HC Arthur Smith (who ironically enough is the Steelers new offensive coordinator) to also posting the 2nd worst turnover margin in the league as well. Added all up and the Falcons very easily could have won double digits games last year as it feels like no team in the NFL got less out of their talent than what Atlanta did. They come into this season having made major changes at the two most important areas for an NFL franchise (head coach and quarterback) and with that I expect this team to be much improved especially at the quarterback position where they've had a big upgrade. If both teams play up to their abilities in this contest than I expect the Falcons should pull away from the Steelers in this game.
Lay the number with Atlanta.
4 Unit Play Take #459 Minnesota -1.5 over New York Giants (1:00pm est):
It feels like the Minnesota Vikings aren't getting much respect but I think much of that is due to the fact most pundits have predicted them to finish in last place but this isn't your typical looking last place team either as much of that has to do with them playing in arguably the toughest division in the NFL this season. Minnesota head coach Kevin O'Connell actually did a very good job last season as most forget that he had the Vikings playing at playoff levels with a solid 6-4 record after their first ten games but they ended up dropping six of their last seven contests (four losses by a combined 12 points) after they lost their solid above average starting quarterback and had to replace him with guys who had no business starting an NFL game.
On the other side of things the New York Giants benefitted from the highest turnover margin in the NFL last season yet despite having incredible luck (especially with fumbles) they still only managed to go 6-11 overall. Not much to like about this Giants team right now as they lack talent on both sides of the football.
Play Minnesota to win this game.
4 Unit Play Take #467 Arizona +6.5 over Buffalo (1:00pm est):
Arizona is healthy and has the offensive firepower to keep this one close. The Cardinals are the perfect bigger type underdog team who can score quickly and often and with that can cash with a backdoor cover. They go up here against an overrated Buffalo defense that will be missing Matt Milano in this game and that's a huge loss for them. The Bills have the look of a team that might have missed it's championship window or for that matter might take a big step backwards this season before retooling and making another run again with their Super Bowl caliber quarterback. There were signs late last year that the Bills weren't living up to expectations especially in games like this one here as they went just 1-7 ATS their last eight games that they were favored by -5.5 points or more. I'm not sure the betting markets have caught up to the fact how much improved the Cardinals are this season and how much the Bills have fallen back.
Take Arizona plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #461 Carolina +4 over New Orleans (1:00pm est):
I think we will look back at this point spread a few months into this 2024 season and laugh how New Orleans was priced this high in this matchup. There's actually an argument to be made coming into this game that Carolina might even be better of these two teams especially after the Saints lost a key offensive lineman to a season ending injury. The Saints head coach Dennis Allen has posted one of the worst head coaching records against the spread in the last 20 years in the NFL and he's even worse when he's favored by more than a field goal like he is in this one here.
Don't sell this Carolina team short. The Panthers made a lot of improvements coming into this season and they look on paper to be a much better football team overall than they were in 2023. Carolina had no luck either last year as their defense was doubled up by every team in the NFL in 2023 in fumbles recovered (usually a luck stat). Though starting QB Bryce Young was bad last year the Panthers went out and got one of the best guys to help with his development in head coach Dave Canales. There's some excitement coming into this year for Carolina while on the other side of things the Saints have the feel of an old stale football team entering this season. This game is priced more what these teams were last year and not what they will likely1 be going forward.
Take Carolina plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #478 Cleveland -2.5 over Dallas (4:25pm est):
I felt the Dallas Cowboys were a big time fraud last year. Nearly every time that Dallas was asked to step up in class the Cowboys failed to live up to expectations as evidenced by their 2-6 ATS record versus playoff teams including going 0-4 as an underdog and losing those games by an average of 15 points per game. The Cowboys lost some key pieces on their offensive line during the off-season and that goes from a team strength to now being a weakness which could spell a bunch of trouble going up here against arguably the best defensive line in the NFL. Cleveland has the better talent in this matchup at nearly every spot on the field except for quarterback play and WR1.
Lay the points with Cleveland in this one.
Thank you and good luck,
Jason Sharpe
Griffin Murphy
6 Unit - Take #467 Arizona Cardinals +6.5 Over Buffalo Bills. (-110) (1:00 p.m, September 8th)In the opening week of the 2024 NFL season, the Buffalo Bills, led by Josh Allen, are facing the Arizona Cardinals, helmed by Kyler Murray, with the Bills nearly favored by a touchdown. Despite the loss of key receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, the Bills managed to clinch the AFC East last season and are eager to repeat this success, even though the New York Jets are currently the favored team for the 2024 season. As for the Cardinals, they are looking to build on their strong finish in the 2023 season, during which they went 3-5 with Kyler Murray leading the charge. The Cardinals' 4-13 season record enabled them to select Marvin Harrison Jr. in the 2024 NFL Draft. For their opening game strategy, the Cardinals aim to control the tempo of the game and minimize Josh Allen's time with the ball. James Conner, a key player in Arizona's backfield, is an underrated force to be reckoned with. If the Cardinals successfully dictate the pace, they should be able to keep the game close and cover the 6.5-point spread. Therefore, betting on Arizona to cover the spread seems like a prudent choice.
Take #467 Arizona Cardinals +6.5 Over Buffalo Bills. (-110)
4 Unit Play - Take #454 Philadelphia (-135) Over Green Bay. (8:15p.m, Friday, September 6th)
I want to open this up immediately with the facts. There is way too much hype over Green Bay QB Jordan Love. Yes, he is coming off an outstanding season, but can we expect the same utility out of Love rolling into this season? Season openers in Brazil are never an easy opening for any team. Philadelphia has returned the majority of their team on the offensive side, and I believe way too many people are overlooking the capabilities of Jalen Hurts. Saquon Barkley takes over the running back role, and you have a monster receiver in AJ Brown on the edge. Philadelphia runs a very fast-paced offense and is dominant on deep balls. Philadelphia has a solid front five, and I don't think Green Bay is going to be ready for the push to open up the season against a team with an offensive efficiency as potent as Philadelphia in this contest. I believe Green Bay opens up the season with a loss and puts more pressure on Love to get himself back in motion.
Take #454 Philadelphia (-135) Over Green Bay.
Griffin Murphy
3 Unit Play - Take #466 Chicago Bears (-3.5) Over Tennessee Titans (1:00p.m. Sunday, September 8th)
Chicago comes into this game after completely revamping their entire roster. Chicago now has two of the best wide receivers in football with Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore. Chicago also made an incredible move, snagging Rome Odunze as their WR3. Calleb Williams will get his first start in the NFL after winning the heisman and being the first NFL draft pick. Chicago’s offense should be nothing short of elusive in this first matchup. When it comes to the defensive side, the Bears now have some chemistry that really flows into play. Edwards and Edmonds in the middle, along with a nice contract on Jaylen Johnson at that cornerback slot. The Bears are very deep across all spectrums on the field. Considering this is a brand new offense and we don't necessarily know what to expect, this is why I only have this dialed as a 3-U play. Tennessee has perhaps one of the worst offenses in football now. They have a struggling QB; Derrick Henry is out of the loop on their rush game offensively, and I just don't see how this offense is going to get it going against this Chicago defense.
Take #466 Chicago Bears (-3.5) Over Tennessee Titans
Griffin Murphy
Amal Shah
7-Unit Play. Take #452 Kansas City (-3) over Baltimore (8:20 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 5)The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs begin their title defense at home tonight vs the team they beat in the AFC Championship game. The Ravens offensive line is introducing 3 new starters against one of the best defenses in football. Andy Reid is 9-2 in season opener in KC and 7-4 against the spread. The Chiefs have added a speedster in Xavier Worthy at wide receiver. Patrick Mahomes will look to continue his incredible success and adding a depth threat will only enhance this offense. Chiefs -3 is the play here.
5-Unit Play. Take #467 Arizona (+6.5) over Buffalo (1:00 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
Arizona travels to Buffalo and is catching nearly a touchdown against a team that is different and not nearly as good as the one from a two years ago. This Arizona offense with a healthy Kyler Murray will be better than that have been. Getting nearly a touchdown to open the season is a great opportunity to take AZ and the points. Josh Allen will move the ball but not enough to cover the 6.5 in this game.
Good luck on all your plays - Amal
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