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Last Weeks Expert NFL Picks from our handicappers.
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Doc's Sports2 Unit Play. Take #453 Miami Dolphins +6.5 over New England Patriots (1p.m., Sunday, September 13 CBS) The Patriots are still the Patriots, but I just feel this is too many points to be giving against a divisional foe. Miami won at Foxboro in their last game of the 2019 season and should only be better this year under Year 2 of Brian Flores. Miami is 6-1 ATS in their season opener over the last 7 years. The Patriots are 0-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 home games. Miami is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against AFC teams.
5 Unit Play. Take #462 Atlanta Falcons +2.5 over Seattle Seahawks (1p.m., Sunday, September 13 FOX) Line available at Westgate. Top NFL Play of the Week. Just do not believe the Seahawks have all that great of talent besides Russell Wilson. Seattle has failed to cover 5 straight season openers. Expect a lot of offense in this game, but I believe the Falcons need this one more in order to get off to a good start in 2020. Atlanta won 6 of their last 8 games in 2019 to save the job of Dan Quinn. Matt Ryan will be able to hold his own in this game, especially with the better offensive weapons that they have. Seattle is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
3 Unit Play. Take #469 Green Bay Packers +2.5 over Minnesota Vikings (1p.m., Sunday, September 13 FOX) Many people are expecting Green Bay to fall back this year after going 13-3 in 2019. But we will gladly grab the points in this game, as the Packers have covered the spread in 4 straight games against the Vikings. QB Cousins is no match for QB Rodgers, as he is just 7-31 in his last 38 games against teams that finish the season with a winning record. Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Week 1 games.
4 Unit Play. Take #479 Pittsburgh Steelers -6 over New York Giants (7:15p.m., Monday, September 14 ESPN) This is a popular pick with all the newsletters and handicappers, and we will side with them early in the season. Pittsburgh needs to make the playoffs this year after missing out the last two years. Pressure is on Tomlin and Roethlisberger and expect them to respond in a positive way to challenge Baltimore in the AFC North. QB Jones played well at times last season, but now does not have an offensive coach. The Giants have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 games as a home underdog. New York is also 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Week 1 games. Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played on Monday Night Football.
Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports. Your next update will be Thursday, September 17 at 6 p.m. eastern time.
Robert FerringoSUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS
1-Unit Play. Take #455 Cleveland (+8) over Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
This strikes me as a lot of points to lay out in a divisional game in Week 1. Neither team has had a preseason to work out the kinds. And while that would seem to benefit the Ravens, who went 14-2 last year, it is not as if they don’t have some things they need to sort out. They have a bunch of new starters on defense, including two first-year players at middle linebacker. They also lost Marshall Yanda along the offensive line. Look, Baltimore is going to be fine. I’m not going to trash them here. However, I do expect them to take a step back after winning 14 games last year. And one of the two teams to beat them in 2019 was Cleveland. I think people are sleeping on the Browns. Everyone and their sister got burned buying into The Hype around Cleveland last year so no one wants to go near them this season. But they really do still have a lot of talent. And I can’t stress enough what a difference it is going to make going from Freddie Kitchens – one of the worst coaches in NFL history – to Kevin Stefanski. I expect more competence from this group and a competitive effort here. Baltimore also loses out by not having fans in the stands and that should dull some of their home field advantage. I like the Browns to hold up defensively just enough to let their offense keep this one within ATS striking range.
2-Unit Play. Take #458 Buffalo (-6.5) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
The Bills are either going to win this game in a blowout or they are going to lose outright. There is no in between. I think that the Bills are one of the four or five best teams in the AFC and one of the 10-12 best teams in the NFL. They have a Top 5 defense that got even better during the offseason and I think that they are going to impose their will on the Jets in this one. New York upgraded its offensive line. But their skill position players are horrendous. And the Jets defense will be worse without C.J. Mosely and Jamal Adams. I just see these teams going in opposite directions and I think the Bills will make a statement here with a commanding 26-13 win.
1-Unit Play. Take #459 Las Vegas (-3) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
At one point this summer this was easily going to be my biggest bet of Week 1. However, I have backed off a little bit as I still worry about the Raiders’ skill position players. That said, I think the Panthers are the second-worst team in football this year and I think that they are total garbage. They have a new head coach, new offensive and defensive coordinators, a new quarterback, new locker room leaders and new everything. They have three rookies starting on defense and they have seven starters in their two-deep. Who are these guys going to stop? The Raiders are in the third year of the Gruden Era and I think that they are going to be much further along than the Panthers. They should be better on both sides of the ball and that should come through
3-Unit Play. Take #466 Detroit (-3) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
If the Bears had started Nick Foles in this game I probably would’ve just stayed away. Instead, they are going with Mitch Trubisky. Trubisky is a complete and total loser. And I think that he’ll prove it again here in this opener. Detroit is in must-win, win-now mode coming out of the gates. They have a lot to prove and I think that they are going to have their ears pinned back on both sides of the ball coming out of the gate. Detroit has a very talented, deep array of weapons. And with veterans Matt Stafford and now Adrian Peterson leading the way I think that this team is going to be ready to go against a tough Bears defense. This game is going to come down to the Lions defense. They imported six new starters; a bunch of them are former Patriots starters that know Matt Patricia’s system. Patricia is a complete pud and a total loser. But he’s been dealt a winning hand in this game.
2-Unit Play. Take #471 L.A. Chargers (-3) over Cincinnati (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
There is no doubt that Cincinnati is an improved team this year. They only won two games last year so there was nowhere to go but up. I look at them this season and I can see a 5- or 6-win team, at best. However, they still have a lot of issues and they still aren’t that good. Joe Burrow is making his first career start. I know he was all-world for one season at LSU. But he’s never seen anything like the size and speed that the Chargers are going to bring to this game. This team won 12 games two years ago. Last year they had a playoff-caliber team were it not for an incredible amount of close losses – eight losses by one score – and Philip Rivers turnovers. Tyrod Taylor is not a schlub. He’s a steady hand surrounded by some top-level talent. I like the Chargers coaching staff and I think that they are going to be ready to go in this game.
7-Unit Play. Take #473 Arizona (+7) over San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
I think that the Super Bowl hangover, especially for the losing team, is real. And I think that the 49ers are going to have to deal with it all season long. San Francisco blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter to blow a chance at immortality. You don’t just get over that. In Week 1 of the 2017 season the Atlanta Falcons, fresh off that 28-3 collapse to the Patriots, struggled to put away a weak Chicago team in a 23-17 win (that didn’t cover the spread). And that Atlanta team benefitted from a full offseason. They were able to take the field in the preseason and get some of the kinks out. For San Francisco, the last time they played a real game it was that gut-wrenching Super Bowl loss. Beyond that, I actually really like Arizona this year. The DeAndre Hopkins trade was a stroke of brilliance and has transformed their offense. The Cardinals have also significantly upgraded their defense this offseason, getting beefier up front and putting together a solid back seven. They are an upstart team, compared to this Niners team that has to scrape itself up off the mat. Arizona actually gave the 49ers all they could handle in both meetings last year. They lost 28-25 in the first game, only getting outgained by 50 yards. They got within a field goal but then allowed the 49ers to run out the final five minutes. In the second game it was 36-26 San Francisco. But that was an extremely misleading score. Arizona was ahead 16-10 at halftime and was up 26-23 with under a minute left. I think the Cardinals have great chance to win this game outright. San Francisco is banged up at receiver and I don’t expect them to be the wrecking ball that they were last year. The Niners are still a great team. But this is a lot of points to lay out to a quirky Arizona team that I think will score points against anyone and everyone this year.
2-Unit Play. Take #477 Dallas (-3) over L.A. Rams (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
I hate to admit it but Dallas should be very good this year. They absolutely dominated the Rams last season when these two met and I think that the Cowboys are even better now. The Cowboys front seven is one of the best in football. And if their cornerbacks can hold up then the defense should be in the Top 10 once again. Further, the Rams defense is kind of a mess. They have eight new starters – many of them who are really unproven or just not very good – and a new coordinator. It’s going to take a minute for them to get it going. I think the Cowboys are favored here for a reason. And that reason should result in a win for the road team.
2-Unit Play. 6.5-POINT TEASER: Take #458 Buffalo (Pk) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m.) AND Take #467 Indianapolis (-1.5) over Jacksonville (1 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #464 Washington (+13) over Philadelphia (1 p.m.) AND Take #467 Indianapolis (-1) over Jacksonville (1 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #455 Cleveland (+15) over Baltimore (1 p.m.) AND Take #473 Arizona (+14) over San Francisco (4 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #467 Indianapolis (-1) over Jacksonville (1 p.m.) AND Take #479 Pittsburgh (+1.5) over N.Y. Giants (7 p.m., Monday)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 47.0 Las Vegas at Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 43.5 L.A. Chargers at Cincinnati (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 47.0 Arizona at San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 52.0 Dallas at L.A. Rams (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
6-Unit Play. Take #479 Pittsburgh (-5.5) over N.Y. Giants (7 p.m., Monday, Sept. 14)
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 46.5 Pittsburgh at N.Y. Giants (7 p.m., Monday, Sept. 14)
Continuity is key. Chemistry, cohesion and having a solid foundation and culture are crucial in the NFL right now. And few franchises have as strong of a core as the Pittsburgh Steelers. They have the same head coach, same coaching staff, same schemes and same setup as they have had for over a decade. These guys know who they are and what they are all about. And that is going to pay dividends early in the season for this group. Pittsburgh had a Top 5 defense last year and went 8-8 despite starting a traffic cone, wet mop and ice sculpture at quarterback once Big Ben went down. Roethlisberger is back and allegedly healthy. And that gives them the upper hand in this Monday Night Football matchup. The Giants are another team has a brand new head coach, new systems on both sides of the ball, and new players to incorporate on both sides of the ball. The Giants have been one of the worst teams in football over the last three years and I just don’t see enough to make me think they are much better this season. This is a short road trip for the Steelers and they aren’t going to be rattled by playing on MNF or playing in New York. I think that this team is much more confident and secure in who they are and what they want to do on both sides of the ball. The Giants are still feeling their way around the Joe Judge Era and there are likely to be some bumps and bruises along the way. I have this one at 24-16 for the Steelers.
1-Unit Play. Take #481 Tennessee (-2.5) over Denver (10 p.m., Monday, Sept. 14)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 41.0 Tennessee at Denver (10 p.m., Monday, Sept. 14)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #479 Pittsburgh (+1.5) over N.Y. Giants (7 p.m.) AND Take #481 Tennessee (+4.5) over Denver (10 p.m.)
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)6-Unit Play. #466. Take Detroit Lions -3 over Chicago Bears (Sunday @ 1pm est)
We roll with the Lions here as Chicago won by 7 and 4 points last year and one has to think that Detroit is going to be highly motivated to play this year. Remember, they have Stafford back and lost a slew of games as they did not have him last year but still managed to play hard. Stafford is thriled to be back with this team and he has talked repeatedly at how excited he is to be back playing with these guys and this team is a sleeper team as they have the coaching staff that has built the foundation for a good year as long as their QB can stay healthy. Remember, if Detroit can hang that close against Chicago last year, imagine what they could do with Stafford, Amendola, Galloway, Hockenson and a running-back core that also has Peterson involved as well. Lions have a lot of frustration to get out and they are going to get it done with a big opening week win here and open some eyes and raise some eyebrows. The Bears still have Turbisky as their quarterback who can't be fully trusted and they have a running-back core that is a big banged up and I think the Lions are just hungry for a big win here.
4-Unit Play. #467. Take Indinapolis Colts -8 over Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday @ 1pm est)
The spread is a little high but we will back the Colts here as Rivers is reunited with his former OC in Frank Reich. The Colts have something to prove, Rivers has something to prove after 16 years with the Chargers and might have the best offensive line in the league actually which is why he came to Indianpolis to begin with as he doesn't have to run for his life like he did in San Diego/LA. Note, the Colts have a good running-game with Mack, have Milton and some good receivers and the Jags have shipped off multiple important pieces, including Campbell, Yaanick and Bouye and Fournette - though Jerome Robinson will be good. The Colts have revenge from a double-digit loss to the Jags last year as well and Frank Reich won't let his team lose badly like they did last year and the Colts likely win by double-digits.
3-Unit Play. #457. Take New York Jets +6.5 over Buffalo Bills (Sunday @ 1pm est)
Jets beat Buffalo and Pittsburgh their last two games of the year and when they are healthy, they can be a very tough team to be honest. This team beat Vegas, the Giants, Washington last year as well and people forget Jets were 7-9 last yearand they have a healthy quarterback this year to. They have a great defense, and the Bills are a great team don't get me wrong, but they did lost 4/5 to close out the year and these two always play close games. In fact, the last 3 have been decided by 12 points as well and Sam Darnold actually completed a better percentage of his passes than Allen last year at 62% and nearly threw as much as him even though he was out more games due to Mono. The Jets are finally healthy and won't start slow like they did last year, good public fade too
3-Unit Play. #464. Take Washington Redskins +6 over Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday @ 1pm est)
The Eagles beat this team by 10 and 5 last year and Redskins and the Redskins are even better this year and have stability with Rivera. Plus this team lost 16-47 loss to Cowboys in their last game of the year which probably stings, this is a great public fade as well and with Dllard/Brooks who are key OL that are hurt for the Eagles as they face 5 first round draft picks on the DL - it will probably be a tough day for Foles here. Note, the Eagles have Alshon and Miles both banged up for this game and Haskins has shed 20 pounds, he and Rivera have a tight bond and on top of all this, Washington's defense is run by Jack Del Rio who has been around the block and is a fantastic former head coach. Redskins hang tough here.
3-Unit Play. #454. Take New England Patriots -6.5 over the Miami Dolphins (Sunday @ 1pme est)
What a way to kickoff Sunday Football right? Miami beat the Bengals and beat the Patriots their last 2 games of the year. The Patriots lost to this team 27-24 last year and will have some revenge coming in as they lost to this team in Foxborough. Cam has been named offensive captain and he has a lot to prove as well as he is coming off 4 surgersies in 6 years. Yes, Miami has a lot of talent and Fitzpatrick has been playing well but the Patriots have a ton to prove here and every time they get counted out they come through and I think they send a message here and it might be a low scoring game, but we have them winning 27-14 here as they get off to a good start on the year.
3-Unit Play. #459. Take Las Vegas Raiders -3 over Carolina Panthers (Sunday @ 1pm est)
Ruhle is the new coach of Panthers and they will be good given the team he has and how well they prepare - but this team is simply too young. Ruhle is a great head coach but he faces his mentor here in Gruden who is hungry for a fast start, has 4 truly stud wideouts, has a bacup in Mariota in case Carr decides to stink it up, a great RB in Jacobs and a team that has a bounty of experience from playing together which the Panthers do not. Raiders think they can compete this year and they very well might and this is a relatively short line for us to take and we will.
3-Unit Play. #475. Take Under 48.5 New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Bucs (Sunday @ 4:25pm est)
You have to go with continuity and I know Brady is there but he's got a ton of new pieces, but it is going to take some time for thi steam's offense to gel. Plus, the Saints offense was lackluster to close out last year and the Bucs have one of the most underrated defense led by Bowles and this is a great public fade as everyone is on the Over - look for a surprisng under here.
3-Unit Play. #462. Take Over 49 Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks (Sunday @ 1pm est)
Atlanta has covered this game the last 4 times, and Atlanta's Quinn used to be the DC for Carroll. Quinn's job is definitely on the line this year and Atlanta started the year 1-7 last year before winning 6/8 games and saving his job. Atlanta actually won their last 4 games last year and I do not see a slow start for the Falcons in this game as they will start fast, start strong and could give the Sehawks a lot of issues here as Atlanta will be ready to play as they have too much motivation and too much anger from last year's slow start - they will be an active dog and send this game Over
Raphael Esparza (VSI)NFL FOOTBALL
3 Unit Play. Take #458 Buffalo -6.5 over New York Jets (12:00p.m., Sunday September 13)
Last year these two division teams split their two game meetings and both were low scoring games but this Sunday I see the Bills flexing their muscles early. In the off season the Bills added some offense weapons and we all know that the Bills will play outstanding defense so Sunday at home I see the Bills winning by double-digits. The Jets are 2-5 ATS last 7 road games and the Bills are 11-4 ATS in Week #1.
4 Unit Play. Take #473 Arizona +7 over San Francisco (4:25p.m., Sunday September 13)
The Arizona Cardinals will be a totally different team this year and the addition of DeAndre Hopkins will be huge this season. The 49ers get this game at home but I see way to many points in this matchup and I see Kyler Murray keeping this game close with his arm and legs. The 49ers were impressive all season last year but struggled with Arizona in both meetings and the last 5 meetings the Cardinals have covered 4 of them with one push. The 49ers are 7-18-1 ATS as a home favorite and the road team in this series is 5-2-1 ATS.
7 Unit Play. Take #479 Under 46.5 Pittsburgh at NY Giants (7:15p.m., Monday September 14 ESPN)
Still blows me away that the Pittsburgh Steelers almost made the playoffs last year and the reason why they were in the hunt is because of their defense. This MNF game is a bit tricky for the Steelers traveling to New York to play the Giants and Big Ben will be on the field. Look for the Steelers to display a balance attack on offense and I just don’t see the Steelers ‘D’ giving up 14 points or more. The Steelers defense held opponents to under 20 points in 5 out of their last 6 games and the Steelers ‘D’ is the reason why this Monday Night Football game stays ‘Under’ the total. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-22 O/U as a road favorite and the NY Giants last 7 Monday Night Football games 5 of them have gone ‘Under’.
Tony GeorgeNFL Sunday 9/13
3 Units – #471 / #472 - Los Angeles Chargers / Cincinnati (Under 43) *4:05 EST
Cincy breaking in a rookie QB and LA has a GREAT defense, even minus their stud Safety lost to injury. LA has good cover corners and great rush ends, and trust me they will send the house at the rookie here and give him a lot of looks. San Diego is limited at QB, in terms of being explosive because Head Coach Lynn wants to run the ball, and likes a run zone ran offense. Clock eating set up. 17-10, 13-10 ballgame here looks like to me.
3 Units – #455 Cleveland Browns (+8) vs Baltimore *1 EST
New head coach for Cleveland (nothing new but this one is good) and they cleaned house with the previous staff, great free agent moves, solid draft, solid defense, Awesome 1-2 punch at RB will better than advertised with Hunt at full force with Chubb. Weapons all over the place. Game 1 division dogs who won 8 games or less the previous year are 39-10 ATS. Bear in mind in 2-19 opening Week 1 division games, the dogs went 4-1 ATS. Baltimore is solid NO DOUBT but week 1 laying over a TD in the NFL is always dangerous. Browns can score and their defense can contain QB Jackson. Key number through 6 and 7.
3 Units- 1st half line- #459 Las Vegas (-2.5) over Carolina *1 EST
Like a more seasoned Raider team here but do not trust them to close it out late. Carolina with Matt Ruhl from Baylor, Teddy Bridgewater at QB, new schemes all over the place, they also lost their last 8 games last year by an average 17 ppg, and also lost their defensive backbone and best LB in the NFL in Luke Kuechly. Vegas is loaded with young talent and Gruden is a risk taker and with a more established culture. I think they get out front early as Carolina tries to find their way. Play the first half line under the key number of 3.
2 Team 6 Point Teaser -120 *1 EST
4 Units – Tease #473 Arizona UP to (+13) over San Fran and tease #463 Philly down to (PK) over Washington
3 Units- #479 Pittsburgh (-6) over NY Giants *7:15 EST
Bear in mind Pitt finished 8-8 with a 3rd string QB and QB roulette when Big Ben went down, basically all season, injuries all over the place. NY not without talent QB Jones was solid and their running game is good. NY with new head coach and staff, limited practice time with no OTA’s and ect, so there will be a learning curve. Big Ben chomping at the bit. Pitt has better QB, Much better defense, and a coaching staff that has been in place.
2 Team 6 Point Teaser *7:15 EST
2 Units - Tease #479 Pittsburgh down to (PK) over NY and Tease #482 Denver up to (+8.5) over Tennessee
Vernon Croy4-Unit Play - #451-452 Houston/Kansas City GAME TOTAL OVER 53 -110 (Thursday, September 10, 2020 at 8:20 PM
(Line available at BetMGM, Draft Kings and Stations)
Take Houston/Kansas City GAME TOTAL OVER as my top NFL pick for Thursday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I expect a very high-scoring game here tonight given the way these 2 teams match up against each other. The last time these 2 teams met back on January 12 they put up 82 total points and yet the posted total was only 50.5 in that match and the last 3 games play between these 2 teams have gone over the posted total including 76 total points in their 3rd last match against each other. 5 of the Chiefs last 5 games played in week one of the NFL season have gone over the posted total and the over/under is 6-1 in the Chiefs last 7 games played in September. Houston allowed 35 points per game over their last 3 games last season and I do expect them to struggled defensively again this season after allowing 392.9 total yards per game last season. Kansas City averaged 29.9 points per game last season and I expect them to pickup offensively right where they left off averaging 39 points per game over their last 3 games last season. So play the OVER
7-Unit Play - #459 Las Vegas -3 -110 over Carolina (Sunday, September 13, 2020 at 1:00 PM
Take Las Vegas against the spread as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I expect big things from this Las Vegas team coming into this season. You can expect this Raiders team to be much better offensively this season even though they did average 402.3 yards per game over their last 3 games last season while holding their opponents to just 261.3 yards per game. I really like the Raiders offensive line coming into this season and they also have dynamic playmakers so you can expect their offensive production to definitely go up this season. Derek Carr completed 70.4% of his passes last season for 4054 yards with 21 touchdowns and 8 interceptions and that number will definitely go up this season. The Raiders really struggled offensively near the goal line last season and that will also change coming into this season. I really expect this Carolina team to have another down year and they allowed 36.7 points per game over their final 3 games last season and 29.4 points per game overall. So play Las Vegas against the spread.
4-Unit Play - # 470 Minnesota -2.5 -110 over Green Bay (Sunday, September 13, 2020 at 1:00 PM
Take the Minnesota Vikings against the spread as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I believe that the Vikings are hands-down the superior team coming into this season. Green Bay average just 311 yards per game on the road last season and just 346.1 yards per game overall. Green Bay also allowed 26.7 points per game over their final 3 games last season and Minnesota outscored opponents by an average of 8.3 points per game at home last season. Green Bay converted just 33.1% of their 3rd downs on the road last season and I expect Minnesota to be just that strong defensively this season where they allowed just 16.1 points per game at home last season. Minnesota is 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games played in week one of the season and the home team is 6-2 against the spread in the last 8 games play between these 2 teams. Play Minnesota against the spread
4-Unit Play - #478 Los Angeles +3 -110 over Dallas (Sunday, September 13, 2020 at 8:20 PM
Take the Los Angeles Rams against the spread as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one my top NFL systems and I expect big things from this Rams team coming into this season. Los Angeles struggled defensively allowing 34 points per game over their last final 3 games last season and you can expect them to be much better defensively this season. Los Angeles did average 375.4 yards per game last season and 24.6 points per game finishing with a 9-7 record and Dallas averaged just 22.1 points per game on the road last season with a 3-5 road record. I believe that Dallas is overhyped coming into this season and I have Los Angeles winning this game outright Sunday night. The home team is 6-2 against the spread in the last 8 games play between these 2 teams and Los Angeles is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games played in week one of the season. This is also a big revenge game for the Rams who lost at Dallas by 23 points back on December 15. So play the Los Angeles Rams against the spread
4-Unit Play - #481-482 Tennessee/Denver GAME TOTAL UNDER 41 -110 (Monday, September 14, 2020 at 10:00 PM
Take Tennessee/Denver GAME TOTAL UNDER as my top NFL pick for Monday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I expect both teams to step up defensively here Monday. The over/under is 6-15-1 in Denver’s last 22 games as an underdog and the over/under is also 4-11 in Denver’s last 15 home games overall. Tennessee allowed just 18.3 points per game on the road last season and I expect them to be very strong defensively this season. Denver averaged just 17.6 points per game last season and just 298.6 yards per game and they allowed just 17.9 points per game at home last season with opponents averaging 322.6 yards per game against them. Denver’s opponents converted just 30.6% of their 3rd downs against them at home last season and Denver converted just 28% of their 3rd downs at home last season. Play the UNDER
Scott Spreitzer3-Unit Play: Take 452 KC Chiefs -9.5 over Texans (8:20 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 10)
Two extremely wealthy QBs will open the season for the NFL but these two signal callers have been far apart as far as success on the field. Patrick Mahomes has won something, he’s won it all in fact, Deshaun Watson has yet to win anything of importance. Mahomes is surrounded by a high powered offensive attack, despite losing an offensive linemen (next man up in this offense) while Watson’s Texans are hamstrung. Houston’s offensive line is overrated, the receiving corps is a far cry from where it was when DeAndre Hopkins was on the roster and I expect the Texans’ attack to suffer. You’ll recall KC whipped Houston 51-31 in the playoffs as a 10-point favorite. Houston jumped out to a 24-0 lead as KC couldn’t get out of their own way. But once they did it was lights out. No revenge here in my betting opinion. And I highly doubt KC helps Houston to a 24-0 early lead. Instead, I expect the Super Bowl champs to take care of business throughout. Speaking of SB champs, those teams have been money in week-1 over the last decade. I’m laying the points with the KC Chiefs on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
7-Unit Play: Take 470 Vikings -2.5 over Packers (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
Green Bay was a fraudulent 13-3 team last season and I expect a fall back in 2020. The Packers actually allowed more yards than they gained in 2019 and things sure aren’t rosey after the way the front office drafted this past spring. Once again, the Packers drafted no help for QB Aaron Rodgers and he was none too pleased about a QB being brought into the fold. Mike Zimmer became HC of the Vikings in 2014 and has been money in the bank, cashing at a 63% winning ATS clip ever since. He has the most talented team in the NFC North and while they finished 10-6 and behind Green Bay in the division last season, Minnesota out-scored its 16 opponents 407-303. The Vikings lost both of last year’s meetings. Minnesota was a mess in the second meeting yet led 10-9 at the half before a mistake-filled second half did them in. Mistakes were the key in the first meeting. The Vikings lost but out-gained Green Bay 421-335, averaging 7.01 yards per play to 4.86. They also ran for 198 yards on 7.33 yards per carry. Dalvin Cook had a huge game but was out when they met late in the season. The issue for Minnesota? They committed four costly turnovers in the first meeting. And by the way, Cook says he’ll play on Sunday despite no new contract. We’re betting Minnesota gains a measure of revenge and we’ll back the Vikings minus the points on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 462 Falcons +2.5 over Seahawks (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
It’s no secret the Seahawks are notoriously slow starters under HC Pete Carroll. It’s been six years since his team covered a season opener. I did several preseason videos and one featured the Atlanta Falcons and the major improvements made after a coaching decision was made on the defensive side of the football following a horrendous start to the season. ATL finished well and they have a healthy Matt Ryan at QB to start the season. Ryan has won and covered 11 of 12 home openers he’s started. The Falcons made several offseason improvements on the offensive side of the football and Ryan will be licking his chops to take advantage. I’m taking the points with the Falcons on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
2-Unit Play: Take 473 Cardinals +7 over 49ers (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
One team improved in the offseason while the other lost some luster. Arizona added DeAndre Hopkins among others, putting the pieces in place for second-year QB Kyler Murray. They also bolstered the defense by adding Isaiah Simmons. SFO won’t have all the same faces, or hands, in the receiving corps in 2020 and those remaining are a bit banged-up heading into week-1. The Cardinals went 9-5-2 ATS last season and went 2-2 SU in their final four games, just two scores from a 4-0 SU run. They also gave SFO all the Niners could handle, nearly beating them in both meetings. Instead, Arizona lost 36-26 and 28-25 and Murray showed that his style does have a negative impact on the 49er defense. We have a losing team from the previous season in double revenge in week-1, a money-maker in itself, along with the Niners in the week-1 Super Bowl loser role. I’m backing Arizona plus the points on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Alan Harris5 Unit Play. Take #451/452 Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Over 53.5 (8:20 PM, Thursday, September 12, NBC)
4 Unit 7-Point Teaser. Take #452 Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 AND Over 46.5
2 Unit Play. Take #452 Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 over Houston Texans
This one has all the makings of a high scoring affair like we saw last season when these two met the AFC Playoffs where they combined to score 82 points. All the talk this off-season was how the Texans offense was going to struggle after they traded away Hopkins but we’re not sure that’s the case. They added Brandon Cooks to a stable of WR’s that already included Will Fuller, Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills and they’re going to get production from the RB slot with David and Duke Johnson getting the majority of the playing time. As for the Chiefs offense, we all know how that goes. They have top players at every skill position and they have arguably the best QB in the league in Patrick Mahomes. They are going to score points week in and week out but as we saw last season, they are also going to give up their fair share which has us on the over here this evening.
As for the side play and points part of the teaser, we just think KC is the better team in all three phases of the game. We have our number in this one at KC -11 so it’s really a no-brainer for us to lay anything below double digits as we think they easily win this one by at least ten on Thursday evening. When you throw in the fact that the Texans are an awful 2-8 ATS in their last ten Thursday night games while KC is 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight where they were listed as the favorite and we like the Chiefs even more.
3 Unit Play. Take #457 New York Jets +6.5 over Buffalo Bills (1:00 PM, Sunday, September 13)
The Bills have posted a 1-3-1 record in their last five games where they faced a team from the AFC and they closed out their 2019 season by failing to cover the number in four of their last five games. As for the Jets, they have been decent in the spot they are in here as they have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games where they were listed as the underdog. Throw in the fact that the road team has covered each of the last four head to head meetings between the two teams along with the fact that the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last ten and we’re taking the points here with the Jets as we’re not quite ready to lay nearly a TD with the Bills.
4 Unit 6-Point Teaser. Take #463 Philadelphia Eagles PK AND #456 Baltimore Ravens -1.5 (1:00 PM, Sunday, September 13)
4 Unit 6 Point Teaser. Take #460 Carolina Panthers +9 AND #465 Chicago Bears +9 (1:00 PM, Sunday, September 13)
5 Unit Play. Take #473 Arizona Cardinals +7 over San Francisco 49ers (4:25 PM, Sunday, September 13)
The Cardinals have posted a perfect 3-0-1 ATS record in their last four road games and they have that same perfect 3-0-1 ATS record in their last four road games where they were listed as an underdog. The Niners, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Sunday as they have gone just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games where they faced an NFC West Division rival and they are an awful 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games where they were listed as the favorite. Throw in the fact that the Cardinals 10-4-2 ATS in their last sixteen games where they were catching points and we’re taking the points with them here in a game that we have a bit closer than the odds makers do in Santa Clara on Sunday afternoon.
4 Unit 6-Point Teaser. Take #475 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5 AND Over 42 (4:25 PM, Sunday, September 13)
4 Unit 6-Point Teaser. Take #478 Los Angeles Rams +9 AND Under 57.5 (8:20 PM, Sunday, September 13, NBC)
3 Unit Play. Take #479/480 Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Giants Under 46.5 (7:15 PM, Monday, September 14, ESPN)
The Steelers have posted a 4-1 record to the under in their last five games played in the month of September and they have gone an excellent 7-1 to the under in their last eight games overall. The Giants have been an under team as well in the spot they are in here on Monday as they have gone 5-2 to the under in their last seven Monday Night Football games. Throw in the fact that the Steelers are a lights out 22-5 to the under in their last 27 road games where they were listed as the favorite and that’s where we’ll have our play as we think both teams are going to struggle to move the ball on Monday evening.
4 Unit 6-Point Teaser. Take #479 Pittsburgh Steelers PK AND #482 Denver Broncos +8.5 (7:15 PM, Monday, September 14, ESPN)
7 Unit Play. Take #482 Denver Broncos +2.5 over Tennessee Titans (10:10 PM, Monday, September 14, ESPN)
This line didn’t make any sense to us when it was at a pick and it makes even less sense that the Titans are now laying nearly a field goal. Yes, the line jumped from pick to 2.5 when it was announced that Von Miller was going to miss the season for the Broncos but that move was a bit of an overreaction as he’s not worth nearly that much to the number. What’s also an overreaction is the respect that the Titans are getting after their improbable run to the AFC Championship game last season. Let’s not forget that the Broncos shut-out the Titans here last season and getting points with the Broncos at home, especially early in the season is a gift from the heavens due to the road team having to deal with the altitude. It’s an even bigger gift this season as the Titans, just like everyone else, didn’t have a normal preseason. Throw in the fact that the Broncos are an insane 33-4 SU and 22-11-4 ATS at home during the first two weeks of the season and we’re happily taking the points with them here in a game that we think they win outright on Monday night.
Doug Upstone6 Unit Play. Take #463 Philadelphia -5.5 over Washington (1:00 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
Philadelphia has beaten Washington six straight times, all as the favorite and has five covers. Washington of course has a new offense that will feature more passing, but that will take some time to institute. New coaches with younger quarterbacks are typically not a good wager to go with early on and look for that to be the case here. Washington’s defense remains a problem and while I suspect Ron Rivera will fix that in time, I don’t see it happening this week. With the former Redskins 15-34 ATS in September home games recently, take the Eagles to soar.
3 Unit Play. Take #462 Atlanta +2.5 over Seattle (1:00 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
It was against Seattle that turned Atlanta’s season around last year. The Falcons were 1-6 last year and was down 24-0 at the half to the Seahawks at home. The Atlanta fans were booing loudly and they should have. The Dirty Birds decided to play in the second half and thoroughly outplayed Seattle in yardage and outscored them 20-7, with the deficit too large to overcome. Atlanta went on to finish the year 6-2. Teams that have that kind of success are often good bets to start the next year based on the confidence gained. Seattle has failed to cover five consecutive openers (2-3 SU) and is 2-10 ATS in road games in the first two weeks of the season. The Dirty Birds outright.
5 Unit Play. Take #463 Pittsburgh -6 over N.Y. Giants (7:15 p.m., Monday, Sept. 14)
Pittsburgh was eighth against the run last season and while the Giants were 10th in rushing, but 40 percent of Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards came in three games. That means a number of low yardage contests, which could happen in this matchup also. Look for the Steelers to move the ball on the Giants and Big Ben to get Ju-Ju Schuster back on track and exploit the Giants pass defense with their tight ends. This will open up the running game for Pittsburgh against a still shoddy New York defense with a new coach and scheme. If the G-Men were 3-12 ATS at home and 1-10 ATS as home underdogs the past two seasons with fans, how do they rise to the occasion here?
Allen Eastman4-Unit Play. Take #458 Buffalo (-6.5) over New York Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
I will go with the home team in this one. Buffalo is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 Week 1 games and this team usually gets off to a strong start at the window. I think they will again here. The Bills were able to upgrade their offense with a big trade for Stefon Diggs this offseason and he should make a big difference for quarterback Josh Allen. The Jets lost key players this offseason. Jamal Adams demanded a trade and C.J. Mosley opted out. Those were their two best defensive players and two leaders in the locker room and their absence will really hurt the Jets on that side of the ball. Buffalo does not have fans in the stadium but I think they will still have a home field advantage against a Jets team that is 2-5 ATS on the road and 7-17 ATS as a road underdog. The Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last eight divisional games and the Jets are just 3-10 ATS when they play against teams from the AFC East. Go with the Bills in this one.
3-Unit Play. Take #459 Las Vegas (-3) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
This is Jon Gruden’s third year with the Raiders. I think that he has this team ready to make a big jump after improving their win total from four wins to seven wins last year. Carolina is a team with a lot of new players and coaches and this is a new era of football in Charlotte. The Panthers really struggled down the stretch last year and they are starting the season with a fresh slate. They have a long way to go as a team. Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last five games and 0-4 ATS at home. They are 0-4 ATS as a home underdog. Las Vegas has not been a good road team over the last five years. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Week 1 games and Gruden has had them ready to play in Week 1 each of the last two years. The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road openers and I like them to get a win by at least a touchdown in this game. Lay the points.
3-Unit Play. Take #473 Arizona (+7) over San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
I will take the underdog in this game. These two teams are division rivals. That means they know each other well and this should be a hard-fought game by both teams trying to get that first divisional win of the season. Arizona has had a lot of success in this series. They are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The Cardinals have also won eight of the last 10 meetings outright and are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Cardinals are also 3-0-1 ATS in the last four games in San Francisco and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams. Arizona almost upset the 49ers last year at home. I think that they will play another close game against them and I will take the points.
7-Unit Play. Take #479 Pittsburgh (-6) over New York Giants (7 p.m., Monday, Sept. 14)
I will take the Steelers in this game. Ben Roethlisberger is back and is healthy for this team. That is going to make a big difference for Pittsburgh with his leadership and experience. Last year the Steelers were ranked No. 31 in passing yards and No. 30 in total offense. They averaged just 18.1 points per game without their future Hall of Fame quarterback. Having Roethlisberger back along with a healthy James Connor and healthy Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster should make a huge difference for this group. The Steelers had a Top 5 defense last year and should have one of the best defenses in the NFL this year. Pittsburgh was No. 1 in the NFL with 37 takeaways last season. New York quarterback Daniel Jones had 12 interceptions and 18 fumbles last year. He turns the ball over too much and I think that the Steelers will take advantage in this game. The Giants are just 1-10 ATS as a home underdog and they are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games. New York won’t have fans and will not have a home field advantage in this one. The Giants are also just 2-7 ATS in their last nine season openers and 0-8 ATS in their last eight home openers. Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in its last seven Monday Night Football games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against teams from the NFC. Take the Steelers here.
4-Unit Play. Take #481 Tennessee (-2.5) over Denver (10 p.m., Monday, Sept. 14)
The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road openers and I think that they will get a win in this one here. This line opened near a pick and the line has moved Tennessee’s way with all the sharp money coming in on the Titans. This team made it to the AFC Championship Game last year and then improved its team last week with a big signing of Jadaveon Clowney. The Broncos took a big hit on their defense last week when Von Miller was injured and potentially lost for the season. They also have Bradley Chubb on a snap count as he works back from injury. Denver’s defense will have trouble stopping Tennessee’s powerful running game in this one. The Titans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on Monday Night Football and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Denver is 0-5 ATS on Monday Night Football and I like the Titans to get the cash in this one.
Strike Point SportsNFL:
3-Unit Play. Take #473 Arizona (+7) over San Francisco (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13th)
We really like the Cardinals in this one as the points are just too good to pass up. Will San Francisco win this game? Probably, but it will be a dogfight for sure. This is also an awful spot for the 49ers as the team that loses the Super Bowl just has a tendency to struggle in their first game of the next season. The loss of DeForest Buckner for the 49ers is huge. Yes, they still have Bosa but losing Buckner is something that will hurt this team all year long. Last year when the 49ers were absolutely a better team the Cards played them tough. Now, San Fran is worse and the Cardinals are better. Take the underdog in this matchup as Arizona is 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog.
3-Unit Play. Take #461 Seattle (-2) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13th)
Yes, we are aware of how scary the Falcons are at home. They can beat anyone blah, blah, blah...This is a different year however and the lack of fans is going to have an impact on how good Atlanta is at home. The lack of fans will also have an impact on Seattle when they are on their home turf, but in this game we just have to pick which team is a better football team, and right now, its the Seahawks. Typically we aren't huge fans of laying points with a West Coast team traveling East for an early kickoff but this is the first game of the season. Last year the 49ers opened up on the East Coast two straight games and won both easily, which is what we see Seattle doing in this one. Lay the points here as the Seahawks win 27-20.
7-Unit Play. Take #477 Dallas (-3) over Los Angeles Rams (8:20 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13th)
The Dallas Cowboys are going to be really good this year. Top to bottom this is one of the better teams in the NFC, and we don't see why they are only laying three points to the Rams. The Cowboys have one of the best front sevens in football and they are going to tee off on Jared Goff. The Rams don't have a strong rushing attack so the pass rush of the Cowboys is going to be scary all night long. Dallas also has one of the best offenses in football, which will make it extremely difficult for the Rams to keep pace with. Once the Cowboys get up in this game they can lean on Zeke Elliot to control the clock and wear down the Rams defense. With a lot of teams when they get ahead and get conservative their offense struggles, but not Dallas with how good Elliot is. This is a primetime game for the Cowboys to show the rest of the NFC, or even the league just how good they are. Lay the small number in this one as Dallas wins big 34-20.
3-Unit Play. Take #479 Pittsburgh (-6) over New York Giants (7:15 p.m., Monday, Sept. 14)
As someone that supports the Giants this is painful to write but the Steelers are way above the Giants level. New York is slowly improving but they are already getting hit by injuries and aren't going to be able to keep up with the Steelers in this primetime matchup. We like the 'over' here somewhat but the side is the better play. Don't be surprised to see this number reach seven at kickoff but even there the value is on Pittsburgh. Lay the points early in this one as this line opened at -3 and has already gone up three points. Pittsburgh wins this game 30-17.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Sunday September 13th 2020-
4 Unit Play Take #475 Tampa Bay +3.5 over New Orleans (4:25pm est):
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were only 7-9 last year despite being just one of just three teams in the NFL that were ranked in the top 10 in BOTH offensive and defensive yards per play. The one big issue for the Bucs in 2019 was their turnover problem especially when it came to throwing interceptions as they ranked dead last offensively throwing 30 picks for the year which was the most thrown by any one team in the league in a decade. All 30 of those interceptions were thrown by one guy (Jameis Winston) but the Bucs have moved on from Winston and in doing so they should see a huge upgrade at that position with Tom Brady as their new starting quarterback. This year Brady will lead a high powered Tampa Bay offense that averaged 28.6 points per game in 2019.
The New Orleans Saints have looked completely out of sync under head coach Sean Payton early on over the last five years as they are 0-10 against the spread in their first two games of each year since 2015. They have also been overvalued in this role as a home favorite of late going just 3-9 ATS the last 12 times in this spot. Look for the Bucs to keep this one close.
Take Tampa Bay plus the points.
4 Unit Play Take #459 Las Vegas -3 over Carolina (1:00pm est):
The Carolina Panthers looked awful in the 2nd half of the season last year as they dropped their last 8 straight games and 9 of their last 10 overall. Even more ugly is the fact those last 9 losses were by an average of 19 points per game, not something you see much of in a parity filled NFL. Things won't be easy for the Panthers early on this year as they have a new offensive and defensive coordinators, a new head coach and also a new starting quarterback. What makes things even more difficult is they have had no real off-season to learn all the new things they are putting in place. That's not the case at all with this Las Vegas Raiders squad as they begin year three under head coach Jon Gruden. In fact there should be lots of continuity around this veteran group. Money has poured in on the Raiders in this one and I agree with that.
Take Las Vegas minus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #466 Detroit -3 over Chicago (1:00pm est):
The Chicago Bears went 8-8 last season but a closer look shows they weren't nearly as good as their final record. The Bears were just 4-12 against the spread in 2019 and failed to cover in 10 of their last 12 games. One of those two point spread covers was by just a half point and came over this Detroit Lions team who had a backup QB starting for them. The Bears 8 wins in 2019 came against these quarterbacks: Sean Mannion, Dak Prescott, David Blough, Jeff Driskell, Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, Case Keenum and Joe Flacco.
The Detroit Lions were playing some decent football last year when they lost quarterback Matthew Stafford for the 2nd half of the regular season. It was Stafford's first year under offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and he was playing the best football of his career when he was injured. The Lions lost two close games last season to this Chicago Bears team last year but both were without Stafford starting. He'll be back for this one and his presence makes the Lions the better of these two teams.
Take Detroit minus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #461 Seattle -2 over Atlanta (1:00pm est):
The Seattle Seahawks have been one of the best franchises in the NFL since Russell Wilson joined them back in 2012 as they have posted a winning record in every season and also went to the playoffs in 7 of those 8 years. They have been money in the bank the last couple of years when priced in these "coin flip" type games lined between -2.5 and +2.5, going 7-2 overall against the number. The Seahawks came out of what was clearly the best division (NFC West) in the NFL last year as teams from the NFC West went an impressive 28-12 straight-up in non-division games. Just as impressive was the fact the teams from this division posted a 16-5 TS mark in lower lined (-3 to +3) games against non-divisional foes like we have here in this one.
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off their 2nd straight 7-9 season in 2019. They faced this Seattle Seahawks squad last season at home and lost that game 27-20. It wasn't that close either as the Falcons never led and were down 24-0 at the half in that contest. The Falcons defense was once again a bad defensive team and 35 year-old starting quarterback Matt Ryan seems to have taken a step backwards since winning the 2016 NFL MVP.
This price is cheap for what is clearly the better team. Take Seattle in this game.
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