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Last Release of Expert NFL Picks from our handicappers.
Just so the public knows we are always transparent and honest with our reporting, in this spot we will list all of the previous weeks NFL football picks and analysis.
This page will be updated each Thursday at 5AM Eastern.
Doc's Sports2 Unit Play. Take #458 Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 over Arizona Cardinals (1p.m., Sunday, December 3 CBS) The Cardinals are not very good, and I believe that the Steelers were rejuvenated last week with a road win and a new offensive coordinator. This will be a tough task for Arizona to win a road game in the northeast in December when it will be cold outside. Pittsburgh has beaten Arizona four straight times (4-0 ATS), including in the Super Bowl. The Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Pittsburgh is due for a blowout win and it will come on Sunday by double digits.
Robert FerringoTHURSDAY NFL SELECTION
2-Unit Play. Take #303 Seattle (+9.5) over Dallas (8 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 30)
The Cowboys have been absolutely dominating at home, winning 13 straight games and pretty much wrecking anyone that’s come to Texas this year. But let’s look at those teams: the Jets, Patriots, Giants and Commanders are among the worst teams in the league. Dallas really hasn’t played many other good teams, either, with other wins over the Panthers, Giants, Rams and Chargers. They lost to Arizona. They barely beat the Chargers and lost to the 49ers and Eagles. So they have beaten up on dregs. I don’t like Seattle at all. I predicted they wouldn’t make the playoffs this season and I don’t think they will. However, this is too many points to give a Pete Carroll team. He’s been a really good underdog in his career. Seattle is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games so this line is all out of whack. Seattle actually won at Detroit, nearly beat the Bengals (with Burrow) and they are desperate after back-to-back losses. Seattle has good players that haven’t played well. I think they will show up tonight and at least be competitive with a Cowboys team that has never found a big spot it couldn’t show up small in.
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS
2-Unit Play. Take #451 L.A. Chargers (-5.5) over New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 3)
The Patriots are a dumpster fire. They don’t even have a quarterback. The players probably hate the coaching staff. The fans are over it. Bill Belichick is on his way out. And this team is just playing out the string. The Chargers are losers. Certified losers. They have at least been competitive, though. Were it not for that garbage time touchdown last week they would have three straight 3-point losses and five of their past six losses would’ve been by just a FG, including losses to Dallas, Detroit and Baltimore, top tier teams. The Chargers at least have a quarterback and some pride.
2-Unit Play. Take #456 N.Y. Jets (+2) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 3)
There is no way Atlanta should be favored on the road. Period. End of sentence. This team has already lost to Will Levis, Josh Dobbs and Kyler Murray, so a loss to Tim Boyle isn’t out of the question.
4-Unit Play. Take #458 Pittsburgh (-5.5) over Arizona (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 3)
With so many pathetic teams in the NFL this year it is easy to forget that Arizona entered the year with the worst roster. They have lost eight of their last nine games and have been pathetic on the road, losing by 5, 27, 10, 17 and 19 points. Pittsburgh is picking up steam. If they start to actually score some points to go with that defense they could quickly become a force in the AFC. Pittsburgh’s shouldn’t blown out Cincinnati last week on the road. Now that they are back in front of their home crowd I can see them laying the wood here.
5-Unit Play. Take #460 Tampa Bay (-5.5) over Carolina (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 3)
I know that teams that fire their head coach always seem to rally in their next game. I think that this is a different situation, though, because I’m sure the players actually liked Frank Reich. He was fired because Carolina’s owner has no idea what he’s doing, not because of incompetence. The Panthers roster is trash and injuries have crushed this team all season. They still aren’t healthy! Three of their starting offensive linemen and three of their four starters in the secondary are all questionable. Among many others that are out. Tampa Bay has had a rough go of it with four of their last five games on the road. They were competitive in all four of those losses and need some home cooking. Tampa at least has a stable coaching staff (Carolina fired its OC as well), home field edge, a healthier roster, and more veteran players. If the Bucs DON’T roll in this game it would say a lot more about them than the Panthers, who have taken their last eight losses by at least seven points.
2-Unit Play. Take #467 San Francisco (-3) over Philadelphia (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 3)
I’m just going to follow the line here. San Francisco is favored for a reason. Philadelphia has been leaking oil and they aren’t as good as their record suggests. They should’ve lost to Kansas City two weeks ago and should’ve lost to Buffalo last week, getting outgained by 300 total yards in those two games and relying on miracle plays in the final minute of regulation to get wins. In fact, the Eagles have had to come from behind in four straight games. At some point that luck will run out. The 49ers are motivated here and they are hot. I like them to lay the wood.
3-Unit Play. Take #470 L.A. Rams (-3.5) over Cleveland (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 3)
Try not to laugh, but the Browns may actually start Joe Flacco in this game. Joe Flacco! This guy was washed up in 2018! And since leaving the Ravens after that seas he has played in just 20 games and hasn’t aged gracefully. If they play Flacco it is going to be a bloodbath. Cleveland has a bunch of other injuries as well and this team just can’t catch a break. Even if they don’t go with Flacco they are starting a rookie quarterback on the road right after a concussion. The Rams are sneaky-good. And now that they have Puka, Kupp and Kyren all healthy the offense can cause some problems for even top defenses. We will go against the breaking-down Browns.
1-Unit Play. Take #472 Green Bay (+6) over Kansas City (8 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 3)
Only two of Green Bay’s six losses this year have come by more than four points. They have won three of four and are playing with a lot of confidence. How focused is Kansas City going to be in this game after a MNF game and a trip to Vegas, with a game against Buffalo on deck. I hate betting against the Chiefs. But this feels like kind of a trap spot for them.
This Week’s Totals
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 40.0 L.A. Chargers at New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 3)
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #463 Miami (-2.5) over Washington (1 p.m.) AND Take #474 Jacksonville (-8.5) over Cincinnati (8 p.m.)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTION
5-Unit Play. Take #474 Jacksonville (-8.5) over Cincinnati (8 p.m., Monday, Dec. 4)
The Bengals are beat. Joe Burrow is the only thing holding this mess of a franchise above the line of respectability. And all the confidence in this locker room got flushed down the locker room once Burrow went out. Cincinnati should’ve lost by 20 last week – at home – against the Steelers, who kept Cincy in the game with turnovers and general stupidity. They have now lost three straight and this is not a place for their last stand. The Jaguars are legit. They are feeling good after that big win over Houston and Jake Browning is going to be a big step down from C.J. Stroud. The Jaguars are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games and have double-digit wins over teams that are better than the Bengals right now. Jacksonville is also in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the AFC and I don’t see them blowing a chance on national TV.
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)6-Unit Play. #459. Take Carolina Panthers +5.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday @ 4:05pm est)
The Panthers played well last week honestly against the Titans and still fell short and I think the change of coaching actually will do wonders for this team. With the Bucs coming into this game with a pair of losses and a banged up Baker, I think Carolina honestly plays spirited football, they are not tanking here for a QB and I think they show up and that offense and defense step up with Reich fired. The Buccaneers come in at 4-7, and aren't exactly playing great football. But they're still squarely in the running for the division due to the NFC South just being a terrible division. Remember, this Panthers team only has one win, but it was a quality win over the Texans who are a pretty good team this year and much better than the Buccaneers. Let's roll with Carolina to hang tough Sunday.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)NFL FOOTBALL WEEK #13
7 Unit Play. Take #462 Tennessee +1 over Indianapolis (1:00p.m., Sunday December 3 CBS)
This is not a typo! I know the Colts are still in the playoff hunt and have won 3-Straight, but they are at Nissan Stadium Sunday afternoon. The Colts 3-game winning streak were against Tampa, New England, and Carolina and those 3 teams have a total of 7 wins. Tennessee won last week against the Panthers at home but a home could give this team momentum and I see Derrick Henry having back-to-back good games. The Colts have dropped 5 out 6 against the Titans and the Colts are 3-7 ATS against AFC South division teams. Tennessee is 4-1 ATS last 5 home games and the Titans are 1-4 ATS as an underdog.
3 Unit Play. Take #470 LA Rams -3.5 over Cleveland (4:25p.m., Sunday December 3)
The Cleveland Browns have been struggling on offense and Sunday late afternoon their struggles will continue. The Rams have won back-to-back games and should have Cooper Kupp on the field this Sunday. The Rams are 4-1 ATS against the Browns.
3 Unit Play. Take #472 Green Bay +6 over Kansas City (8:20p.m., Sunday December 3 NBC)
Green Bay shocked the Thanksgiving viewers on Thanksgiving and the Packers could do it again on Sunday night. Kansas City is 1-4 ATS against Green Bay and Lambeau Field could see snow showers Sunday night. I know it snows in Kansas City but playing in Lambeau with weather is no joke.
#470 LA Rams (-3.5) vs Cleveland *4:25 EST
The Browns are injury riddled on both sides of the ball, and they may resort to Joe Flacco at QB this week at the QB position. The 5th round Rookie QB DTR is in concussion protocol, and PJ Walker flat out stinks and had 46% completion rate so far this year when he plays. Not good news for Cleveland but it gets worse. Aaron Donald is rushing whoever is at QB. We all hear about the Browns defense, BUT on the road, they allow 29 ppg and no team has scored than 24 on them when they played on the road. Oh yeah, Cleveland played on the road last week and lost to Denver. Stafford and company will have a big day throwing the ball, and perhaps a huge Day if Miles Garrett is out for the Browns (listed as questionable). For the Rams they are still alive for the Playoffs at 1 game under .500, and now RB Williams is healthy and balances the offense. A team decimated with injuries here and a Rams team playing loose and carefree and the offense has been dialed in. Cleveland has 3 backups as options for QB in this game, and a back-to-back roadie to boot. Lay it with a hot Rams team, bad scheduling spot for the Browns and as stated, they are not near a 100%.
#453 Detroit (-4.5) vs New Orleans *1 EST
The Lions have had added time to deal with the fact they were embarrassed on national TV in a butt whipping by Green Bay on T Day. They are better than that. Also, it should be noted New Orleans is a mess, Carr at QB turns it over and is not 100% and we may see Winston at QB here, and they are without their top 3 WR’s for this game, which is a huge ordeal. Also 2 of their best defensive players are out, including their best cover corner. I think the Saints get railed here big time, as Detroit is healthy and has playmakers and I look for QB Goff to limit his turnovers as he has been a total disaster the past 2 games. If Detroit cannot win this by 8-10 points, then they are a pretender and not a contender. The Saints are NOT a good team and are limping in here after allowing a dysfunctional Atlanta team to score 24 on them in a 9 point loss.
#465 / #466 Denver / Houston (UNDER 47.5) -110 *1 EST
Forget what Denver was, it is what they are now. A run team that moves the chains and eats clock and their run defense is stepping up as well. QB Wilson throws intermediate passes and short controlled routes and again keeps it between the hashes and eats the clock. In Denver’s hot streak of 5 wins, all 5 games were under 46 points. The have held opponents to 16 ppg during this win streak and that includes Kansas City! Houston will test the waters as Stroud has had some interceptions as of late and I see a low scoring affair and it would not surprise me at all if Denver wins this outright.
2 Team 6 Point Teaser (-120) *1 EST
Tease #463 Miami DOWN to (-3.5) and tease #458 Pittsburgh DOWN to (+0.5)
Vernon Croy7-Unit Play – #303-304 Seattle/Dallas GAME TOTAL OVER 47.5-110 (Thursday, November 30, 2023, 8:15 PM)
Take Seattle/Dallas GAME TOTAL OVER as my top NFL pick for Thursday night. This pick falls into one my top NFL systems and this is a Seattle team that has allowed 24.7 points per game over their last 3 games. I do expect Dallas to put up a big number in this game and I also expect Seattle to reach over 20 points. Dallas has averaged 41 points per game and 443 yards per game at home this season. Dallas has also averaged 42.3 points per game over their last 3 games and 460 yards per game. Dallas has converted 52.2% of their 3rd downs at home this season and they have also completed 77.7% of their passes at home this season. Although Dallas has stepped up defensively at home this season, I do have a letdown for this Dallas defense this week after allowing 10 points in back-to-back games. I also believe that Seattle offense is much better than we saw last week against San Francisco where they put up just 13 points, but they did have their opportunities in that game. Play the OVER as we move to 32-15 with my last 47 top NFL plays on Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football.
6-Unit Play – #453 Detroit -4-110 over New Orleans (Sunday, December 3, 2023, 1:00 PM)
Take Detroit ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into 1 of my top NFL systems and I really like Detroit in this spot in what is a big bounce back game for them. I believe that Detroit is the better overall team on both sides of the ball and this is a New Orleans team that has averaged just 18.3 points per game and 314 yards per game at home this season. Detroit has averaged 31.3 points per game and 445 yards per game over their last 3 games and I do expect them to step up defensively on the road here Sunday. Detroit has converted 39% of their 3rd downs on the road this season and they really had no business losing against Green Bay last week but 3 turnovers cost them that game. Detroit will have plenty of success on the ground against this New Orleans defense that has allowed 124 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per run this season. This is a New Orleans team that just gave up 228 rushing yards against Atlanta and they have given up more than 155 rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games overall. Play Detroit ATS
5-Unit Play – #473-474 Cincinnati/Jacksonville GAME TOTAL OVER 39-110 (Monday, December 4, 2023, 1:00 PM)
Take Cincinnati/Jacksonville GAME TOTAL OVER as my top NFL pick for Monday night. This pick falls into one my top NFL systems and both of these teams have struggled defensively lately. Cincinnati has allowed 26.7 points per game and 456 yards per game over their last 3 games and this is a Cincinnati team that has allowed 24.4 points per game and 381 yards per game on the road this season so you can expect Jacksonville to get a boost offensively this week. Jacksonville has allowed 24.4 points per game and 358 yards per game at home this season and they have also allowed 23 points per game and 341 yards per game over their last 3 games. Jacksonville has struggled against the pass this season especially at home where opponents have completed 67.3% of their passes against them averaging 265 passing yards per game against them. Jacksonville’s opponents have also converted 39.1% of their 3rd downs against them at home this season and Cincinnati’s opponents have converted 45.8% of their 3rd downs against them on the road this season. Play the OVER
Scott Spreitzer2-Unit Play: Take 453 Lions -4 over Saints (1 p.m., Sunday, December 3)
The Lions played poorly on Thanksgiving but they've had extra time to prepare for the Saints. Detroit is still one of the top five offenses in the league and their defense stuffs the run. New Orleans likely won't be able to keep-up through the air. The Saints are banged-up at WR and I expect the offense to struggle keeping-up. I'm backing the Lions on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
2-Unit Play: Take 460 Under 37 Panthers-Bucs (4:05 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 3)
Two struggling offenses face two decent defenses. Believe it or not, Carolina's defense ranks 9th in yards per play allowed and they've been great on third down. Carolina is 5th in passing yards allowed per contest. Tampa's offense has been mediocre all season, ranked second to last in rushing yards per game and just over 300 total yards per game. They'll be led by Baker Mayfield, who's nursing a sore ankle. The good news for Tampa is that they're strong against the run and Carolina has no passing game. Heck, they have no anything on offense. The Panthers highest output in its last five games was 15 points on October 29. I'm playing the Under between Carolina & Tampa Bay on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
7-Unit Play: Take 467 49ers -3 over Eagles (4:25 p.m., Sunday, December 3)
San Francisco had a couple extra days for their outstanding coaching staff to prepare and for players to recover from bumps and bruises. Philadelphia's defense was on the field for more than 90 plays in their OT win over Buffalo on Sunday. The team has quite a few injuries and now has to face arguably the most diverse offense in the NFL. The Eagles are banged-up at LB and here comes a punishing offense that's averaged over 140 yards rushing in their last three games. The Eagles have allowed more than 300 yards passing in three of their last four games and Brock Purdy leads the entire league in completion percentage (70.2%) and passer rating (112.3). Purdy is outstanding at processing plays as they happen in a blink of an eye. SFO is the better team in both offensive and defensive DVOA, along with net yards per play and third down defense. I'm laying the points with the 49ers on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 474 Jaguars -8.5 over Bengals (8:15 p.m., Monday, Dec. 4)
Jake Browning makes his first road start as an NFL QB and has to face a Jags' defense that will be a little ornery after giving up quite a bit to Houston in Jacksonville's 24-21 win last week. Cincy only gained 221 yards last week and Browning was sacked four times. Meanwhile, the normally sluggish Pittsburgh offense gained 421 yards on the Bengals' shoddy defense. I expect Trevor Lawrence and company to score plenty of points in this one and I don't believe the Bengals have the goods on offense to keep-up. I'm laying the points with the Jaguars on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Doug Upstone4 Unit Play. Take #458 Pittsburgh -5.5 over Arizona (1:00 p.m., ET Sunday, December 2)
Pittsburgh changed offensive coordinators last week and despite scoring only 16 points, they gained over 400 yards for the first time in 58 games. The Steelers are firmly in the playoff hunt in spite of a -23 point differential at 7-4. Pittsburgh has not won a single contest by more than a touchdown and I believe that streak stops here. Arizona’s 2-10 start surprises nobody, but this number is the franchise's worst since they were known as the Chicago Cardinals (1959). Pittsburgh has no reason to let up even against an inferior opponent and is 7-0 ATS playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since last year.
3 Unit Play. Take #467 San Francisco -3 over Philadelphia (4:25 p.m., ET Sunday, December 2)
A very difficult scheduling spot for Philadelphia. The Eagles have played four or more quarters against Kansas City and Buffalo in winning twice the last two weeks. Against the Bills, the Philly defense was on the field for 95 plays and now they face an even more physical team in San Francisco. The Eagles have been outgained in four consecutive contests, not a sign of a team that keeps on winning and their defense suffered some injuries last week. Just the fact Philadelphia is a home underdog at 9-1 in an alarm. The 49ers will look to wear down the Philly defense with the run and San Fran also has the revenge angle from last year’s NFC title game. All of this is a lot for Philly to overcome and they still have a trip at Dallas next week.
3 Unit Play. Take #474 Jacksonville -8.5 over Cincinnati (8:15 p.m., ET Monday, December 3)
Jacksonville won the game they needed at Houston last week and can start focusing on not only winning their division but possibly having the top seed in the AFC. Cincinnati will still compete but with no Joe Burrow and a defense that ranks #31 in yards allowed, the Jaguars should go up and down the field passing and running. The SU winner of a Jacksonville game is 11-0 ATS and the SU loser of a Cincinnati 0-10-1 ATS this season.
Good Luck, Let’s Roll,
August Young4-Unit NFL: (303) Seattle Seahawks +9.5 -110 over Dallas Cowboys (11/30/2023 @ 8:15PM ET) Well, this is about as ugly as it gets and I'm sure we'll get what we deserve. However; we have to trust our process and numbers. The Dallas Cowboys are drastically being overvalued by the market after winning three straight, and five of their last six both SU and ATS. However - their strength of schedule has been incredibly weak ranking 31st of all teams. The Seahawks are coming in to this matchup off back to back losses, but should be motivated to play their best football with any post-season hopes dwindling. They know they have the 49ers and Eagles coming up in their schedule, so this is a big game for them. They've failed to cover in six of their last seven, and for that reason we're buying-low and selling-high. Neither team is as good (or bad) as they have shown.
4-Unit NFL: (456) New York Jets +115 [ML] over Atlanta Falcons (12/03/2023 @ 1:00PM ET) The Jets are a better team than the market is giving them credit for. We understand they have nothing at QB, and things did not look too good for Tim Boyle last time out with 1 TD and 2 INT. However, it takes time to settle in, and the Falcons are not the Dolphins. The Jets still have a very good defensive unit, which ranks 8th best in defensive EPA against the pass, and 10th best in defensive EPA against the run. Aaron Rodgers recently announced that he wants to return this season as long as the team is "alive" in the AFC playoff race. That's a jolt of motivation for a team that has lost four straight games. This is a coin-flip based on our numbers, and we have the added motivation factor for the Jets. Value on the dogs that the main-stream media is writing off.
4-Unit NFL: (459) Carolina Panthers +5.5 -110 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12/03/2023 @ 4:05PM ET) Well, this is shocking news! We've successfully faded the Panthers multiple times this season. They are awful, and we aren't changing our stance on that. Bryce Young is terrible, and we honestly find his entire blase attitude extremely irritating. There is no urgency with this team. Having said all that - The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are also horrific and their record is deceiving. They've now lost six of their last seven, with their only win coming against a Titans team that have zero offense outside of the run game. Baker Mayfield clearly isn't 100% as he continues to deal with an ankle injury, and we can't envision them winning this game by a touchdown or more. The value is on the worst team in the NFL, and there's a lot of it. However, we still have our bias towards Bryce Young and therefore aren't willing to push the unit value up despite the numbers telling us this should be a big play. We'll taper our expectations and hit this for the regular amount. Gross.
7-Unit NFL: (467) San Francisco -155 [ML] over Philadelphia Eagles (12/03/2023 @ 4:20PM ET) San Francisco had their rough run this season when they lost three straight to the Browns, Vikings, and Jags. However, they're back on track with three straight wins, and looking like the best team in the NFC West. The Eagles are 10-1 so far this season, and have been getting away with a ton of close games, and sooner or later that's going to punch you in the mouth. In our opinion, that is what will happen here against the 49ers. We love San Francisco from a matchup perspective, and we're all about it here. The Eagles haven't had to make any changes based on constant wins, but we see this every year with SB contending teams. Philly needs a reality check. We've had a ton of success with these ML plays so far this season, despite the juice. Long-term clients know how we do things, but for those of you that are new - we convert all spreads to a true moneyline price, and whichever offers the best value is what we bet. It's simple mathematics. We're not in the business of feeling comfortable; we're in the business of making money. Sometimes these will lose, and it stings a little more, but more often than that - they win, and we either would have pushed or lost. Singular games cannot dictate any future approach and long-term we know what is best for our clients.
Strike Point SportsNFL Plays:
2-Unit Play. Take #459 Carolina (+5.5) over Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 3)
The Carolina Panthers haven't had much to smile about this season and now they come into this game with an interim coach. Carolina has been a mess, but this is where a few good things happen. When teams fire their coach the first week with the new leader seems to be filled with positive vibes and teams play much better than they have all season long. The Panthers offense will be a bit more up-tempo and RPO based with coach Chris Tabor calling the shots. Tampa Bay is too inconsistent to be laying this many points against anyone so the points here are just too good to pass up. Take the Panthers as they give the Bucs all they can handle here and just might win outright.
5-Unit Play. Take #461 Indianapolis (-1) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 3)
This game will come down to which defensive front can put more pressure on the opposing quarterback and that will be the Colts. Indy's offensive line has come a long way this season and they will keep their QB upright much more than the Titans. Will Levis is going to be forced to get rid of the ball quicker than he will like and turnovers will be his downfall as the Colts win this AFC battle. The Titans come into this game off a win, but they didn't look good against the worst team in the NFL in Carolina (not this week though!), while the Colts come in on a three-game winning streak. Take the road team to win this one as Indy is 4-1 straight up on the road this season.
3-Unit Play. Take #466 Houston (-3.5) over Denver (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 3)
The Denver Broncos are one of three teams in the NFL that have a record over .500 but have a negative point differential (Steelers and Seahawks), and that’s not a good thing when playing a Texans offense that is sixth in the NFL in yards per game. The number here says a lot about who Vegas sees as a better team. The Broncos have won five games in a row, and against top notch opponents, and yet the Texans are still laying points. This is the third straight game at home for Houston while Denver is starting a tough three-game road trip. Denver has been very fortunate in terms of big turnovers they have taken advantage of during their win streak, and that will come to a screeching halt in this one. Lay the points.
7-Unit Play. Take #467 San Francisco (-2.5) over Philadelphia (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 3)
This is a huge spot for the 49ers. The Eagles have the best record in the NFL, are at home, and yet they are getting points? Yes, and for good reason. The 49ers are much healthier than they have been, and they will have a QB that can actually attempt a pass (much different that the last time these two teams met in the playoffs last year). The 49ers have revenge on their minds as they were embarrassed by Philly 31-7 in the playoffs but as we said they were dealing with a plethora of injuries at the quarterback position. This time around the 49ers are healthy and ready to make a statement, and that is evident by the fact that they are favored in Philly. This is only the third time in two years the Eagles have been an underdog and the first at home. This is just a better spot for San Francisco as they are coming in off extra rest after playing on Thanksgiving while Philly played extra time last weekend versus Buffalo. The rest advantage, the fact that they are healthy, the revenge factor, and just how good they are playing are too significant in this matchup. Take the 49ers.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Sunday December 3rd 2023-
7 Unit Place #472 Green Bay +6 over Kansas City (8:20pm est):
Green Bay has looked vastly improved of late and is looking more and more like a legitimate playoff team over the past month. This young Packers teas comes into this game winners of three of their last four games and should have actually went 4-0 if not for turnovers on the road in a tough spot at Pittsburgh. The Packers quarterback Jordan Love is also coming off arguably the best game of his career last time out. Head coach Matt Lafleur has been solid as an underdog covering 64% in his career. This has been the best spot to bet against Kansas City, as big favorites of more than a field goal as the Chiefs are just 9-17 against the spread the last 26 times.
Take Green Bay and the points.
4 Unit Play Take #462 Tennessee +1 over Indianapolis (1:00pm est):
Not being this Indianapolis three game winning streak as those wins came against teams with a combined 7-26 record this season. The Colts will be without their best offensive player in Johnathan Taylor in this one and they have struggled in the past when he's not been involved going 6-12 straight-up when he has 10 carries or less in a game. This more pressure on quarterback Gardner Minshew and Minshew is just 5-15 straight-up in his last 20 starts. Tennessee has won five of the last six head to head meetings with the Colts. The Titans are a perfect 4-0 at home this season currently and are in a must win spot here.
Take Tennessee in this contest.
4 Unit Play Take #469 Cleveland +3.5 over Los Angeles Rams (4:25pm est):
Cleveland is getting too many points here. The Browns have played a very difficult schedule especially of late as 7 of their last 8 foes have a winning record on the season. Cleveland was in a tough spot last week on the road in Denver and were in a tight affair against the Broncos but were done in by three fumbles in that game. The odd thing is the Browns were getting +1 against a Denver team that's as good if not better than the Rams so this price range in this one is clearly too high. Los Angeles has two of their five wins this season over Arizona and this number jumped off after they beat up a bad Cardinals team last game. The Rams were just -1 last week in Arizona meaning they would have been -3 or so at home against Arizona which is ridiculous considering the they are giving 3.5 in this one.. The Rams also needed overtime to beat the Colts this year and won by just one point over Seattle and they had a bye and two weeks to prepare going into that contest.
Take Cleveland and the points.
3 Unit Play Take #464 Washington +9.5 over Miami (1:00pm est):
It's always a good idea to look to back an underdog coming off a blowout loss especially when they face an opponent off a blowout win and we have that here with Washington and Miami. Bigger home underdogs have also been the way to look the past five years as they have covered the spread 62% of the time overall. Washington could have some rain on Sunday and that would help the Commanders in this matchup help slow down this Miami passing game. Washington head coach Ron Rivera has been solid in the underdog role covering just under 60% of the time in his long career in this type of spot. The Miami offense has went from averaging 37 points per game their first six games this season to just 23 points per game in their last five contests. The Dolphins are also dealing with a ton of injuries right now and may just want to get out of this game without anyone getting hurt as they have some big games coming up. The bottom line this is a big number to ask a team to lay away from home especially going up against an offense that can move the football.
Take Washington and points.
3 Unit Play Take #466 Houston -3 over Denver (1:00pm est):
(-3 is at Circa, Westgate, SouthPoint and Draft Kings)
Denver has turned their season around winning five straight games but they have caught some huge breaks along the way as they have posted the highest positive turnover margin during this time and have faced back to back backup quarterbacks. Houston is quietly playing some solid football winning 6 of their last 9 games and they very easily could have won all of those games as each defeat came by a field goal or less.
Take Houston minus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #459 Carolina +5.5 over Tampa Bay (4:05pm est):
I expect Carolina to get a little bit of a bump in this one after firing their head coach. The Panthers defense has gotten healthy and has played well since their bye week. Tampa Bay looks to be dealing with a ton of injuries and shouldn't be favored by this amount over any team in the NFL. The Bucs come into this game losers of 7 of their last 9 games overall. The Bucs defense is awful and I expect the Panthers to open things up a bit now letting rookie quarterback Bryce Young run the ball more. This is a lot of points to give a team with such a low total.
Take Carolina plus the points.
Thank you and good luck,
Griffin Murphy5 Unit Play - Take #466 Houston (-3.5) Over Denver. (1:00p.m, Sunday, December 3rd)
Both Houston and Denver are 6-5 on the season entering this game. Denver has already won five straight games and enters with a lot of momentum. The issue, in my opinion, is that there is too much momentum. People are overly optimistic about the Denver team because of where they started and where they are now. Houston is 4-2 at home this season and is led by C.J. Stroud, who is arguably the best active quarterback in the NFL right now. Houston is coming off a heartbreaking 24-21 loss at home to Jacksonville last Sunday. Houston presently ranks fourth in the NFL in offensive yards per game, averaging about 400 yards per game. Houston is second in the NFL in total passing yards per game, averaging 276. When it comes to rushing defense, Denver is 32nd in the NFL. This is a significant problem for Denver's defense because C.J. Stroud not only throws dimes from the pocket, but he's also quick on his feet. Denver also ranks 29th in the NFL in defensive points allowed per game, giving more than 25 points per game. I expect Houston to play a redemption game and put a hurt on this overhyped Denver squad.
Take #466 Houston (-3.5) Over Denver.
7 Unit Play - Take #470 Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) Over Cleveland. (4:25p.m, Sunday, December 3rd)
Los Angeles is 5-6 on the season, while Cleveland is 7-4. Los Angeles has won two straight games, while Cleveland was defeated by Denver on Sunday. Cleveland is already 2-3 on the road this season and is currently missing standout quarterback Deshaun Watson. As previously stated, Los Angeles had won two straight games, defeating Seattle and Arizona. Prior to those games, Los Angeles had lost three straight games, followed by a bye week. Los Angeles has been hampered by injuries all season and was in desperate need of a bye week to heal. After a 37-14 victory over Arizona, the team is officially healthy and ready to go. Cleveland now has one of the top defenses in the NFL, but Los Angeles has one of the most elusive offenses. Los Angeles should tear this Cleveland defense apart and put up a big number against them offensively.
Take #470 Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) Over Cleveland.
Expert NFL Picks History:
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