2019 Super Bowl Predictions
We've already looked at Super Bowl futures a couple of times since the last season ended - once right after the Super Bowl, and once after the initial free agency dust had settled. Now that the draft is in the books, though, it's a good time to revisit the numbers to see if our feelings have changed at all. (Odds to win the Super Bowl are from MyBookie):
New England Patriots (+400): New England was favored at +550 to win it all just after the Super Bowl, and that has fallen since. It makes sense that the number has fallen - Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski have confirmed their return, and Josh McDaniels is shockingly back. It has been a weird offseason for the team, though, and there are many changes. It feels like there are holes and more questions than many years. And Tom Brady is only a year younger than me - and I'm old. Things weren't as rosy between coach, management and star QB last year as they have been last year, either, and that could be a concern this year. I will never truly doubt this team, but I struggle to find any value in this price.
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Philadelphia Eagles (+650): This team has all the tools to compete and has had a solid offseason. But they have the potential for a QB controversy if one guy falters, and we don't know if or when Carson Wentz will be healthy. And the aura of a Super Bowl hangover is very real and a lot for a team like this to overcome. The NFC is deep and tough this year, and as good as this team is there are just too many questions to justify this price.
Green Bay Packers (+750): Is Aaron Rodgers going to stay healthy? That's a tough question after the last couple of years. And if he doesn't then the team is doomed. In real trouble. Even if he is healthy, is this a team good enough to win it all? I'm not convinced.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+800): The Steelers are intact offensively and are going to be able to move the ball and score lots of points. Defensively they have some issues to deal with - like replacing Ryan Shazier long term. But they should be a little better defensively. They are a factor. This price doesn't excite me, but it isn't terrible, either.
Minnesota Vikings (+900): I like the Kirk Cousins move - though I would have been fine with them keeping Case Keenum, too. And I like a lot of the other pieces as well. I think the Vikings are very well positioned to win their division, and they have longer odds than the Packers, so there is at least nice relative value here.
L.A. Rams (+900): I like this price the most of any on this board. The team was strong last year, and they have positioned themselves to be stronger. They are well coached. Jared Goff took a big step forward from Year 1 to Year 2, and he could take another step forward. Todd Gurley was really special last year and should be again. And there is plenty more skill on both sides of the ball. What I really like, though, is the swagger of the team. They made bold, creative moves this offseason. That makes them better and has the players believing that management is behind them and willing to do what it takes to win. They were humbled in the playoffs last year, but they can build on that this year. If the Rams were a stock I'd buy. I wish I'd bet the futures after the regular season, though - they were at +1800 back then.
Dallas Cowboys (+1300): I have no interest at all in this price. They have made changes, but the same front office kept the same head coach and the same quarterback, and none of that inspires me. I don't believe in this team to get over .500, never mind winning a Super Bowl.
Cleveland Browns (+6500): Some idiots out there - mostly residents of Ohio - will bet this price. The Browns have been so bad for so long that they have been a punchline. Those who want to believe in this team are starved for success, though. They got their franchise QB - they hope. And they added more draft talent in the draft and the rest of the offseason. But after a winless season, winning a Super Bowl is far from the top concern of this team. Winning a game is the first step. Then winning five games would be a major success - their own Super Bowl, if you will. If this price is at all interesting to you then you are doing it wrong.
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