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2023 Super Bowl Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 1/31/2023

Super Bowl predictions Harrison Butker Kansas City Chiefs

The big game is finally upon us. The 57th edition of the Super Bowl is set to take place in Glendale, Arizona, on February 12 at 6:30 p.m. EST. The Kansas City Chiefs will be making their 3rd Super Bowl appearance in the last 4 years, on the back of a gutsy Patrick Mahomes AFC championship performance. Across the field stands the Philadelphia Eagles, who will be returning to the Super Bowl for the first time since their miraculous 2018 victory over the Patriots, where they prevailed 41-33. Both teams earned the No. 1 seed in the regular season, so it is fitting to see these heavyweights battle it out under the brightest lights.

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Super Bowl Line:

The line opened with Kansas City coming in as slight favorites before quickly shifting to Eagles -2. Both teams had identical 14-3 regular season records, and 2-0 postseason records, which makes a short line very fitting. The money lines are -130 for the Eagles and +110 for the Chiefs, while the total is hovering around the 49.5-point mark.

Kansas City Chiefs:

The Kansas City Chiefs were expected to struggle after trading Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins for a basketful of draft picks. However, Andy Reid and Mahomes didn’t miss a beat, and the Chiefs are right back in the Super Bowl. In the regular season, the Chiefs lost to the Colts in Week 3, before a couple close losses to the Bengals and Bills. The losing ended there, as the Chiefs finished the regular season on a 5-game win streak, and have now won 7 straight heading into the Super Bowl.

Mahomes continues to prove his status as a generational talent, and Travis Kelce stepped up in Hill’s absence. Kelce led the team with 1,338 receiving yards, far and away the most for a tight end in the league. Kelce and Mahomes have developed on field chemistry that is difficult to contain, and the star QB’s scrambling ability continues to create positive plays from lost downs. The injury surrounding Mahomes remains a concern, as Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain during their divisional round win against the Jaguars. Usually, this type of injury takes 3-6 weeks to fully heal, but the Chiefs don’t have that kind of time. There is no doubt Mahomes will play. However, as we saw against the Bengals, his legs have been neutralized. Despite this, the Chiefs will be confident they can pull out another gutsy postseason win and capture their second Super Bowl of the Mahomes era.

Philadelphia Eagles:

The Philadelphia Eagles jumped out to a 8-0 start before falling to the Washington Commanders in Week 10. They bounced back nicely and were 13-1 before Jalen Hurts got injured to close out the season, finishing 14-3. The Eagles kept the momentum going in the playoffs, steamrolling the Giants 38-7 in the divisional round, before slaughtering an injured 49ers team 31-7 in the NFC Championship Game.

Hurts has developed into a franchise quarterback for the Eagles, and the talented offensive line, coupled with a solid slew of receivers, makes the Eagles a very difficult team to defend. A.J. Brown set an Eagles single season receiving record in his first season with the team, posting 1,436 yards this year. DeVonta Smith is one of the best WR2’s in the league, and the chemistry with his college turned NFL teammate Hurts is a spectacle to watch. A powerful offensive line leading a trio of talented running backs ensures defenses have to play them honestly, otherwise Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott will run riot. All three running backs scored touchdowns against the 49ers, rounding out a very deep Eagles offense. The Eagles will be confident their playoff dominance can continue in Arizona and will be eager to cap off an incredibly dominant season.

Super Bowl Prediction:

When it is all said and done, this game will come down to the big plays, and big moments. The discrepancy between these two teams is slim. And in the postseason, it will come down to who can convert when it matters most. Both teams have quality quarterbacks, with a competent run game, and the only tangible edge is on the defensive side of the ball, in favor of the Eagles. The Chiefs have a bottom half pass defense. And if Hurts can scramble out of the pocket and expose their secondary, it will be a long night for the Chiefs faithful. Hurts puts defenses in miserable situations, running numerous different run-pass options. This forces defenses to go man on man in the backfield, and allow Hurts to run, or pile up the tackle box, and risk a big reception.

Despite this, I will actually be betting on the Chiefs to cover the 2-point spread en route to a +110 Moneyline victory. Mahomes has proven time and time again that he can deliver in crunch time, even without two healthy ankles. Reid and Mahomes will take the appropriate level of risk and will emerge victorious. On the offensive side of the ball, I have no doubt that Kelce can carve up an Eagles defense that is very mediocre at containing the versatile tight ends of the league. The Mahomes-to-Kelce connection will continue to etch itself deeper into playoff lore, with Kelce already second all-time in receiving touchdowns. Mahomes has spread the ball nicely to his wide receivers, and JuJu Smith-Schuster is always ready to shine as the primary wide receiver target. A traditional, yet versatile, Chiefs attack got the job done against a solid Bengals defense. And if the Chiefs secondary can prevent the big plays, another Lombardi Trophy will be heading to Kansas City.

For the Eagles, I expect them to crack under pressure. They were dominant in both playoff games and haven’t played a meaningful 4th quarter snap in months. Between the Hurts injury late in the season, to blowout playoff wins, this team hasn’t been under pressure in late game situations. The lack of crucial snaps may hurt the Eagles when it matters most. Games such as this between two very skilled teams often come down to one fatal mistake, and I expect the Eagles to be the team making it.

While doubting the Coach of the Year frontrunner Nick Sirianni is never wise, I will still do so. The decision to go for it on fourth-and-three early in the 1st quarter of the 49ers game illustrates the risks he is willing to take, and I expect him to go one step too far against the Chiefs. In the coaching battle between Reid and Sirianni, Reid will take the conservative route, and it will pay off. While the Philly special brought Super Bowl glory to Philadelphia 5 years ago, a similarly gutsy call will come back to bite the Eagles, and Mahomes doesn’t need a second invitation to take advantage.

From a betting standpoint, I’ll happily grab the 2 free points on offer with the Chiefs and expect them to win outright in a high scoring battle. Both teams will turn the ball over and will generate plenty of scoring chances. The offensive minds that comprise both teams’ coaching staff will have 2 full weeks to come up with a gameplan, leading to a narrow 27-24 Chiefs victory, cashing the +2 for the Chiefs, Chiefs +110 Moneyline, and Over 49.5 on the game.

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Along with the 2023 Super Bowl predictions seen here, you can check out Odds Shark’s Super Bowl odds which are updated daily.

 

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