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2019 Super Bowl Predictions


by - 1/21/2019

New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski

The dust has barely settled, but we finally know which two teams will be meeting in the Super Bowl. And it's not the matchup anyone expected. Well, not recently, anyway. The Patriots and the Rams were the two favorites to win it all before the season started, so in that sense this is the chalky pick. But just before the championship games were played, the Patriots were the third choice in futures odds, and the Rams were fourth. And you couldn't argue with either - both were on the road and had shown more vulnerability at times this year than the teams they were visiting. Yet here we are. Accurately forecasting anything to do with football is hard.

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Even with this matchup, it is interesting how quickly things have changed. On Wednesday last week I looked at the futures odds for every potential Super Bowl matchup. The NFC team was favored in all four combinations, with the Saints a -1 favorite against both the Pats and the Chiefs. The Rams were also -1 against the Chiefs but were -1.5 against New England. It's hardly a big difference or a big line, but it is still striking that the Rams-Patriots was seen as the least close of the four games. Yet when the matchup was set and the game was posted, the Patriots were favored by 1.5 points. And Bovada has already moved the game to the key number of three - though they are ahead of the rest of the market as I write this, so it might not stick. But regardless, the point is that up to the NFC was favored solidly right up until when we saw who the NFC team was. But now that New England is in, they are drawing most of the early money, and things have swung. A lot can change between now and kickoff, but the early movement is very interesting.

A lot will probably change for me in the next almost two weeks as I look at the game closer, too. At this early point, though, It's time to make my early Super Bowl predictions. And at this point I don't have to work too hard to make my pick. It isn't particularly original or creative, but I'm on the Patriots. And at BetOnline right now I can get -2, which I am happy to take.

Why am I on that side right now - aside from the unavoidable fact that only one of the QBs came from my beloved Michigan, and it isn't the Rams? There are two good reasons at this point:

1. Coaching: I respect so much about Sean McVay and have no doubt that he has a very bright future in the league - not bright enough to be at the top of the NFL coaching tree like he currently is as of yet, but still very bright. But this is new for him. And while he has three assistants who have won the big game once, he still isn't drawing on an enormous store of knowledge. Belichick, meanwhile, has an unprecedented store of Super Bowl knowledge. This is his 11th time preparing for this game - ninth as a head coach. And while it would be easy for him to have gotten complacent, the playoff run the team has had so far makes it clear that that isn't the case at all. McVay has almost endless chops, but Belichick has seen and done so much more, the moment absolutely won't be too big for him, and he'll be ready because he knows exactly what ready looks like.

2. Killer instinct: Both teams won in overtime to get here, but there was a very different feeling between the two efforts in my eyes. On the surface the Rams came from behind while the Pats blew a lead, so that should be in the favor of the Rams. But it's not that simple. In the fourth quarter the Rams scored only two field goals, and were exceptionally lucky to get a chance to kick the last one. They didn't play great, but neither did the Saints. It felt like a circumstantial win instead of an impressive one. And even in overtime the Rams didn't overwhelm - they were able to kick the field goal mostly because of where they had intercepted the ball. Now think of that Patriots game. It was 17-7 going into the fourth quarter, and then the Chiefs scored twice to go up 21-17 halfway through the final quarter. Instead of shrinking and hoping for the best, though, the Patriots stepped into the ring ready for a street brawl - and they got one. They ground out a touchdown to take the lead. After losing it quickly, they stepped up and scored even quicker. And then after the game was put into overtime, they came out and flexed their way to the win. When the team needed it, they put together three brilliant drives and oozed confidence while doing so. They were ferocious when the Rams were more calculated. And I'll take ferocious any time.

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