NFL Betting Predictions: Wild Card Round Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 1/6/2026

NFL betting predictions Wild Card Round opening line report Drake Maye New England Patriots

One of the most effective ways to stay ahead of the spreads in the NFL is by taking advantage of the opening lines. The closing spreads and totals are often very sharp, but locking in an extra point or two of value earlier in the week can be the difference between winning and losing in the long run. Last week, we went 1-2 on our picks to move to 26-27-1 on the season. The 49ers and Ravens both lost pivotal games, while the Patriots were the lone bright spot of the week as they easily covered the -10.5 point spread in their demolition of the Jets. The Wild Card round is bursting full of fun matchups, but before we get into this week’s picks, here are the biggest storylines from a dramatic Week 18.

Seahawks on top: Seattle flexed their defensive muscles with a win over the 49ers to claim the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a 13-3 final score. Sam Darnold did what he needed to, as the Seahawks get an extra week off with their crucial bye.
Bucs win, but Panthers win? Tampa Bay did all it could on Saturday to take a brief lead at the top of the NFC South. However, due to a long list of tiebreakers, the Falcons Week 18 victory over the Saints allowed the Panthers to claim the division with an 8-9 record. All to face the Rams in the first round…
No Metcalf, no problem: It wasn’t pretty, but the Pittsburgh Steelers found a way to win against the Ravens, taking the AFC North crown. It was an ugly season for all four NFC North teams, but we have to give credit where credit is due. Mike Tomlin’s incredible win streak continues, even if it may be another one-and-done in Pittsburgh.
Raiders on the clock: Thanks to a win by the Giants in the early window, the Raiders clinched the first overall pick before their game against the Chiefs kicked off. Tom Brady’s new franchise has a long way to go before it is a contender, but the right pick in the 2026 draft would be a step in the right direction.
Black Monday: The head coach firings have already begun, as the offseason has already started for half of the NFL franchises. Coaches and staff will learn their fates in the coming weeks, as it is a long climb back to the top for the eliminated teams.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

The most exciting month of football is here, and it is time to jump right into the opening lines for Wild Card Weekend. Make sure you lock these in as soon as possible, as there is no guarantee these prices will be available this weekend.

Game 1: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

Opening Line: Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

No Lamar Jackson. No Patrick Mahomes. No Joe Burrow. Is this the year Josh Allen and the Bills can finally get over the hump in the AFC? The short answer is…. No. While Allen’s superhuman abilities make the Bills a very dangerous team in the postseason, the reality is that he can’t do it alone. This is the worst roster Allen has had in Buffalo since 2020, and it is hard to see the rest of his teammates making the plays they need to against a hungry Jaguars side. The Bills' defense has looked vulnerable both on the ground and through the air; their offense is stagnant outside of Allen and James Cook, while questionable decisions from Sean McDermott could see him fired after this game.

Looking at the Jaguars, it is very hard to justify them as home underdogs in this matchup. Jacksonville has won eight games in a row, and they are the better team on both sides of the ball. Trevor Lawrence may not be pulling off heroic plays like Allen, but he is still an accurate passer who has caught fire at the right time. Brian Thomas Jr. fantasy owners haven’t been happy with Lawrence’s willingness to spread the ball around the offense, but it has really paid dividends in Jacksonville. Nine players have at least 9 catches and 100 yards this season, with 7 of them logging 20+ catches on the year. Offensive coordinator Grant Udinski deserves a ton of credit, but as does Lawrence, who stepped up in a crucial year for his career. The unselfish play in Jacksonville has led to 23+ points on the board in 10 straight games, with 30+ in six of those games, all wins. I find it hard to imagine Buffalo being the ones to slow down Jacksonville, and unless Josh Allen can come out on top of a 37-35 shootout, the Bills will get bounced in the Wild Card round for the first time since 2019.

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)

Game 2: San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

Opening Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)

The Eagles have been very hot and cold this season, and it is easy to forget they won the Super Bowl just 11 months ago. Nick Sirianni is under plenty of fire, but the Eagles still won the division and are set up for a deep playoff run. They are getting healthy at the right time, they have been generally dominant at home, and I can understand why they are the favorites here. However, a spread larger than a field goal is not a number I can get behind. San Francisco shook off their slow start to get within one game of the No. 1 seed in the NFC. This is a far better team than their sixth seed suggests, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Kyle Shanahan find a way to pull off this upset. Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey have been electric in the backfield, while we haven’t seen the same level of dominance from Saquon Barkley this year in Philly. The 49ers' defense is still dealing with injuries, but their current roster still has enough juice to slow down a one-dimensional Eagles offense. While they are one or two defensive injuries away from a real disaster, the 49ers should be able to keep themselves in the game just as they did against Seattle in Week 18. This is a great spot to buy low on the 49ers after the entire country watched them get destroyed by the Seahawks last week. This isn’t the team that should have the second-largest spread of the weekend, and we will take full advantage in what promises to be a close matchup.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers (+4.5)

Game 3: Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

Opening Line: New England Patriots (-3.5)

This is one of many intriguing matchups this week. While a short spread makes sense for a pair of strong quarterbacks, the disparity in quality between these two rosters will be too much for Justin Herbert to overcome. The Patriots have one of the best defensive units in the league, as their secondary is capable of dominating in man coverage. This allows a weak Patriots pass rush to get some bodies into the tackle box, and it won’t take much to get to Herbert early and often. The Chargers' offensive line is the worst unit in the league, ranked 32nd in the pass game and 31st in the run game this season. Injuries to Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt can make their poor play understandable, but it doesn’t change the fact that this team will be unable to compete against a competent side like the Patriots. It doesn’t matter how good Herbert is; if he can’t get his feet set, he will not be able to pick apart a stingy Patriots defense. If you need more convincing, New England has an MVP candidate, Drake “Drake Maye” Maye, on the other side of the ball. Maye has been unstoppable when he has time in the pocket, and unlike the Chargers, the Patriots have the pass protection they need to set Maye up for success. Maye is leading the league in many passing categories, and what makes him truly special is his decision-making in the pocket. Maybe he isn’t known for his wheels, but he has been the most efficient rushing quarterback this season. His ability to read defenses and tuck the ball when necessary will allow the Patriots to extend drives against a strong Chargers defense. This has all the makings of an old-fashioned defensive battle, but the Patriots are the better team on both sides of the ball. It is hard to emphasize just how bad the Chargers' offensive line has been this season. Once you add in the fact that the Patriots are playing at home, this one becomes my most confident pick of the slate. I don’t want to hear about how New England’s schedule sucked this year. They have the joint-best record in the NFL for a reason, as they took care of business against whoever they faced all year long. Will second-year Maye go all the way? We will have to wait and see. However, I don’t need too much convincing to fade the Chargers’ dreadful offensive line at a reasonable price.

Pick: New England Patriots (-3.5)

Season Record: 26-27-1

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Start:	January 8, 2026 @ 12:00 PM
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NFL Betting Predictions: Wild Card Round Opening Line Report and Picks

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