2026 NFL Season Win Totals Predictions for Every Team

Betting on the NFL win totals can be one of the most effective futures on the market. While the 17-game regular season means one bad beat or lucky touchdown could have a substantial effect, most of the time, if you make the right preseason call, you will be rewarded. Finding an undervalued or overvalued franchise at this stage of the season is still no easy task, but there are certainly some soft lines we can exploit. Now that free agency and the draft are in the rearview mirror, the schedules have been released, and the lines have been set, it is the perfect time to lock in some value. Here is an over/under pick for the win total on all 32 teams this season. 

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Arizona Cardinals: 4.5 Wins, Last Season 3-14

The Arizona Cardinals have opted to move on from the Kyler Murray experiment, but still face a long rebuild before they are competitive again. Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew are both serviceable quarterbacks, but a poor Arizona defense combined with a lackluster offense is a recipe for disaster. Their schedule is far from a cakewalk with the 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks in the NFC West with them, and it is hard to see Arizona putting many wins on the board. It’s a low line for a reason, but the Cardinals stay UNDER once again. 

Atlanta Falcons: 7.5 Wins, Last Season 8-9

Potentially losing James Pearce Jr. due to off-field issues is a big hit for this Falcons defense, but they will still be able to flirt with a .500 record again. They won four straight games to close out the year last season, and even a tumultuous quarterback situation won’t be enough to drag them down. Michael Penix Jr. appears to be healthy, Tua Tagovailoa is still a respectable quarterback, and the Falcons will only need mediocre offensive play to stay competitive with a rock-solid defense. They didn’t have a first-round pick to deploy, but a strong free agency haul should allow Atlanta to emerge from a disastrous NFC South. OVER

Baltimore Ravens: 11.5 Wins, Last Season 8-9

The Ravens were a shocking absence from the playoffs last year after a 1-5 start to the year. Lamar Jackson was in and out of the lineup due to injury, and their defense fell apart at crucial times throughout the season. Flash forward to today, and I am not sure where the Ravens got significantly better. The Maxx Crosby trade fell through, Baltimore lost their head coach, and while the Jackson-Henry duo will get plenty of eyes, this isn’t an automatic 12-win team. UNDER

Buffalo Bills: 10.5 Wins, Last Season 12-5

Josh Allen is the gift that keeps giving for Buffalo, and this is a head-scratching win total. The Bills have cleared this line in each of the last six seasons, and it is not as if they suddenly have a more difficult schedule. The Jets and Dolphins still represent four free wins, and the Bills are strong enough to go 7-6 or better across their other 13 games. They have playmakers on offense, prioritized defense in the draft, and it is hard to pick out too many flaws with this team. Once you add in a durable MVP candidate at quarterback, this 10.5 win total line feels like low-hanging fruit. OVER

Carolina Panthers: 7.5 Wins, Last Season 8-9

I am not fully sold on Bryce Young as a top-end quarterback, but there is no overlooking this Panthers defense. They made a big splash with the signing of Jaelan Phillips at edge rusher, and prioritized the trenches with their early draft selections. It is hard to say whether or not this team got better, but it still appears as though their offense will be capped. They don’t have any big playmakers in the skill positions, and their defense will only get them so far. This one will be close, but the Panthers stay just UNDER. 

Chicago Bears: 9.5 Wins, Last Season 11-6

The Chicago Bears had a wonderful season during the sophomore year of Caleb Williams, but the manner in which they did so is not sustainable. The Bears pulled off several fourth-quarter comebacks to reach their 11-6 record, something they will not do again. The Lions, Vikings, and Packers will all be better this season, and a difficult schedule with division winners on the horizon will do them no favors. They didn’t make any seismic splashes in free agency either, giving them sub-50% odds of reaching a double-digit win total. They will be competitive, but fall just short of the playoffs. UNDER

Cincinnati Bengals: 9.5 Wins, Last Season 6-11

If Joe Burrow stays healthy, the Bengals could be the frontrunners in the AFC North this year. This feels like a good time to ‘buy low’ on Burrow after he missed significant time in two of the last three seasons due to injury. The Bengals' defense can’t get any worse, but a healthy Burrow has already shown he can overcome those shortcomings and lead this team to the playoffs. New arrival Dexter Lawrence will make a real impact on that side of the ball, and this Cincinnati team should be a legitimate Super Bowl contender if their defense is adequate. That is a big if for one of the worst units over the last few seasons, but it is a shot we are willing to take. OVER

Cleveland Browns: 6.5 Wins, Last Season 5-12

The Browns have 8 combined wins in the last two seasons and they are still facing a salary cap nightmare. Deshaun Watson is allegedly the QB1 for Cleveland, but he hasn’t thrown more than seven touchdowns in a season since 2020 with the Texans. On defense, the Browns remain a strong side, but a truly abysmal offense will prevent them from taking advantage. A dicey quarterback with one of the worst skill-position groups in the league is a recipe for disaster. Cleveland will find success in the trenches to scrape out a few wins, but meaningful football in the tail end of the season is still nothing more than a fantasy. UNDER

Dallas Cowboys: 9.5 Wins, Last Season 7-9-1

The Cowboys always have high hopes to contend in a competitive NFC East, but there are still too many holes on this defense to expect consistent success. The Commanders and Giants both got better, taking away some free wins, and teams will have a full year of film to figure out how to slow down this electric offense. They had a strong draft and made some crafty moves, but this team is still one year away from a double-digit win total. UNDER

Denver Broncos: 9.5 Wins, Last Season 14-3 

The Broncos are not expected to repeat as the No. 1 seed in the AFC this season, but this win total is still a bit too low. This defense isn’t getting any worse after a historic year last season, and Bo Nix silenced the doubters with an excellent regular season. His broken ankle in the playoffs ended the year on a sour note, but their defense once again proved it can carry this team to the top of the standings. Asking for 10+ wins isn’t a lot given what they have done in the offseason, and assuming Nix is healthy, this is their division to lose. Now that he has another real target to aim at with the acquisition of Jaylen Waddle, the sky is the limit in Denver. OVER

Detroit Lions: 10.5 Wins, Last Season 9-8

The Lions made some under-the-radar moves in the offseason that could pay dividends if they can stay healthy. Isiah Pacheco replaced David Montgomery in the backfield, while they shored up their weak spots on defense through the draft and free agency. Even better, the Lions should be getting better within if they can avoid getting bit by the injury bug. They had a truly historic season last year in terms of man-games missed, especially on defense, yet still managed to finish 9-8. If they can have a little better luck in that department, Detroit will once again be one of the top teams in the NFC. OVER

Green Bay Packers: 9.5 Wins, Last Season 9-7-1

The Green Bay Packers had injury problems of their own last year, but that still doesn’t excuse them from throwing away wins time after time. They made a flurry of offseason moves as one of the busiest teams in the league, shoring up their pass rush alongside Micah Parsons. Jordan Love proved he is a top-half quarterback, but a difficult schedule leaves the Packers fighting an uphill battle. Another season around .500 is what I expect in Green Bay. UNDER

Houston Texans: 9.5 Wins, Last Season 12-5

The Texans rode a strong defense to the postseason and shifted their attention to the other side of the ball in the offseason. Trading for David Montgomery was their first big splash, then drafted an offensive guard with two of their first four draft picks. A disastrous offensive line hurt Houston last year, but they will suddenly be a real contender if their current pieces can stay healthy. I don’t think they reach 12 wins again, but they should be good enough to squeak into the playoffs with 10 or 11 victories. OVER

Indianapolis Colts: 7.5 Wins, Last Season 8-9

The Colts started 8-2 before losing seven straight to close out the year, so there is reason for both optimism and pessimism in Indianapolis. The injury to Daniel Jones certainly didn’t help, but is Jones truly the man to lead this team to the playoffs? This is a similar win total compared to what they did last year, but the under is the way to go. They traded Michael Pittman Jr. to the Steelers, leaving Josh Downs and Alec Pierce as the top receiving options for Jones. For most NFL teams, you can find things that made them better in the offseason, but with no top-50 pick or big splash in free agency, it is hard to see the Colts keeping pace. UNDER

Jacksonville Jaguars: 9.5 Wins, Last Season 13-4

The Jaguars closed out the year on an eight-game win streak before being bounced by the Bills in the Wild Card round. Trevor Lawrence finally had his passing game unlocked by Liam Coen, and the sky is the limit for Jacksonville. They got lucky with a lack of injuries for the most part last year, but this is still a massive regression expected for a team that was one win away from the No.1 seed. They were quiet in the offseason, which will help them build chemistry, and while another 13-win campaign may be too much to ask, a double-digit win total is well within reach. OVER

Kansas City Chiefs: 10.5 Wins, Last Season 6-11

The Kansas City Chiefs had their first sub-.500 season of the Patrick Mahomes era last year after their star quarterback’s ACL injury. It was not as if the Chiefs were having a good season anyway at 6-8 when he got hurt, but they are still expected to be right back in the thick of it this year. They retooled their team with a series of big moves, including trading Trent McDuffie away, drafting a replacement corner with the 6th overall pick, and finally getting an elite running back with Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III. However, an aging defensive line combined with serious questions at wide receiver means the Chiefs are far from guaranteed to go on a deep playoff run. Mahomes will probably be ready for Week 1, but maybe not. There are far too many questions surrounding this team to justify a double-digit win total. UNDER

Las Vegas Raiders: 5.5 Wins, Last Season 3-14

The Las Vegas Raiders hope to have found the quarterback of their future with Fernando Mendoza out of Indiana. However, the good news ends there. The Raiders were one of the worst teams on not just one, but both sides of the ball last season. After failing to trade Maxx Crosby, the Raiders are still stuck between a full-on rebuild and another season of mediocrity. Tyler Linderbaum should help shore up their offensive line, but this team is still at least two years away from anything resembling a positive season. UNDER

Los Angeles Chargers: 9.5 Wins, Last Season 11-6

The Los Angeles Chargers lost their two starting tackles with season-ending injuries, one in training camp and one in preseason camp. That left Justin Herbert behind the worst offensive line in football, and, remarkably, he was able to guide the Chargers to 11 wins despite that. Now that Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are back, and the Chargers picked up Commanders center Tyler Biadasz, they suddenly have an elite offensive line. Their defense will remain solid, but now this team can finally play complementary football. Justin Herbert will be an MVP candidate behind a competent offensive line, and the Chargers will fly OVER this total. 

Los Angeles Rams: 11.5 Wins, Last Season 12-5

The Rams have a young core of elite defenders that will carry this team past their mistakes made on Draft Day. Taking a quarterback at 13th overall was a huge shock, especially with their next pick not coming until 61st overall. Now the Rams have to make do with what they have from last year, and I just don’t see them putting up 12 wins again. Los Angeles is a great team who will likely make the playoffs, but Stafford will eventually start to slow, and they may elect to blow things up if the season starts to go south early. UNDER

Miami Dolphins: 4.5 Wins, Last Season 7-10

The Dolphins pulled the plug on Tua Tagovailoa this offseason, sending him away to make space for Malik Willis at quarterback. They also shipped out Jaylen Waddle to the Broncos, and it is clear the oddsmakers give them little to no chance of making a deep playoff run. We can all agree the Dolphins will be bad, but will they be worse than 4.5 wins? I’d bet so. Their defense is abysmal after trading Minkah Fitzpatrick and Jaelan Phillips, and their offense won’t be any better. They do get two winnable games against the Jets every year, but it is hard to find many other victories on their schedule. UNDER

Minnesota Vikings: 8.5 Wins, Last Season 9-8

The Vikings have brought in Kyler Murray for a rock-bottom price in a ‘prove it’ deal alongside JJ McCarthy. Brian Flores continues to craft incredible defensive schemes, and this team will be very good if they can find any consistency on offense. They had an NFC-high nine draft picks this year and also scooped up Jauan Jennings for some wide receiver depth behind Justin Jefferson. Just when it looks like the Vikings are dead, they find a way to stay competitive, and I expect them to finish just above .500 again this year. OVER

New England Patriots: 9.5 Wins, Last Season 14-3

The AFC champions are expected to have a solid season, but nothing like the year they had. Drake Maye will continue to improve, but a very difficult schedule has set this team up for failure. They won the AFC East for the first time in nearly a decade, and will be rewarded with several first-place teams and a truly brutal schedule. It looks as though Stefon Diggs is on the way out, and while Romeo Doubs is a great addition, it doesn’t tick this team over the line. Super Bowl losers have done notoriously badly in recent seasons, and we will tail that trend with a pick on the UNDER.

New Orleans Saints: 7.5 Wins, Last Season 5-12

The Saints are still in a salary cap nightmare after a series of bad decisions, but there is now a light at the end of the tunnel heading into this season. Their defense was excellent last year, but they simply could not score, and while that may be the case again, they will get more wins on the board. Their quarterback room is still a nightmare, but they have the pieces they need with a flashy new wide receiver in Jordyn Tyson and Travis Etienne Jr. in the backfield. A soft schedule will allow their defense to feast, and while they may not make the playoffs, they will go OVER. 

New York Giants: 7.5 Wins, Last Season 4-13

John Harbaugh is the big signing for the Giants, who started to show signs of life last year. Injuries to Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo halted their momentum, but there is reason for optimism again in New York. Their trade of Dexter Lawrence shows that this team is not in a rush to contend, and I think they are still one more win away from flirting with a .500 record. There will be fun moments in New York, but a tough schedule and competitive division will leave them on the outside looking in. UNDER

New York Jets: 5.5 Wins, Last Season 3-14

As one New York team gets better, the other continues to struggle. Geno Smith is not getting any younger at 35 years old and is not going to be the savior New York fans are looking for. Minkah Fitzpatrick and Demario Davis are both excellent defenders, but it won’t matter how good the defense is when Smith is constantly turning the ball over. He isn’t the type of quarterback that will thrive on a bad team, and the Jets are firmly in that category. Hard to say why they aren’t at 4.5 wins like the rest of the bottom feeders, but we are not complaining. UNDER

Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5 Wins, Last Season 11-6

The Eagles' reign at the top of the NFC East may finally be coming to an end. Their endless locker room issues have boiled over, and they are starting to pay the price for kicking the ‘salary cap can’ down the road for the last few seasons. They were once again crafty in both free agency and with the draft, but their good fortune will eventually run out. A tough schedule and a tough division mean 11+ wins is a bit too much to ask for. UNDER

Pittsburgh Steelers: 7.5 Wins, Last Season 10-7

The Steelers will move on from the Mike Tomlin era, but I expect their defense to remain elite. They have too many playmakers to fail on that side of the ball, and an aging Aaron Rodgers showed he is still capable of one last dance. Mike McCarthy is far from a proven coach in the playoffs, but to give credit where credit is due, he usually fields a competitive team. Pittsburgh hasn’t had a losing season in decades, making this 7.5 win total look like low-hanging fruit. OVER

San Francisco 49ers: 10.5 Wins, Last Season 12-5

The San Francisco 49ers could have had multiple Super Bowls if they had stayed healthy in recent seasons. They appear to be good to go heading into this year, making this win total feel quite low. The 49ers have posted 12+ wins in three of the last four seasons despite a revolving door of injuries, and a healthy team could make real waves in the NFC. Mike Evans’ arrival on offense and Dre Greenlaw’s return on defense give them even more firepower. Unless the injury bug strikes again, which it certainly might, it’s hard to see this team falling short. OVER

Seattle Seahawks: 10.5 Wins, Last Season 14-3

The reigning Super Bowl champions are expected to contend again this year. However, they are missing key pieces that could lead to their demise. Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III has departed, as have key defenders such as Coby Bryant and Riq Woolen. Seattle didn’t add to many legitimate pieces in free agency or the draft either, and will have a tough schedule as the division winner. Every team will have this game circled on their calendar to give the Seahawks their all. They will scrape into the playoffs, but this feels like a lot of recency bias after their run last playoffs. Lots can change from one year to the next, forcing us to go UNDER.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8.5 Wins, Last Season 8-9

The Buccaneers have been the best team in a dreadful NFC South for the last few years, but that reign will come to an end. Losing Mike Evans takes away their best weapon on offense, and they didn’t sign any gamechangers to replace him. Baker Mayfield continues to prove doubters wrong, but it’s not the time to start acting like 8-9 is a great record. The Buccaneers were unable to take advantage of their soft division, and an aging defense isn’t getting any better. UNDER

Tennessee Titans: 6.5 Wins, Last Season 3-14

I don’t love the draft pick of Jeremiyah Love, but the Titans did need a game-changer on offense. Now that Cam Ward has some firepower to play with, the Titans may actually be able to mount a charge. It is always hard for a rookie quarterback to come into a team that struggled the year before, but the Titans did look much better in the second half of the year. Wan’Dale Robinson gives him a new target to aim at, and Daniel Bellinger is a suitable replacement for Chig Okonkwo. The playoffs will have to wait one more year, but the Titans will go OVER.

Washington Commanders: 7.5 Wins, Last Season 5-12

Has everyone forgotten what Jayden Daniels did during his rookie year? The former LSU star only played 7 games last season, which capped what Washington could accomplish a year after reaching the NFC title game. They also had the most man games missed due to injury last season, and while having the oldest roster in the league was a contributing factor, they will likely get some better injury luck this time around. The front office has given Daniels the platform he needs for success, and Sonny Styles is a great addition on defense. Daniels reminds the league he is still a top signal caller as Washington heads back to the playoffs. OVER

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