NFL Power Rankings Week 18
by Robert Ferringo - 1/3/2023

The last thing you need is another hot take on the Damar Hamlin situation. I’m not trying to ignore the biggest story in football right now. But I’m instead going to choose to stick to the game. And I have the same advice for every football bettor every year heading into the final week of the regular season: tread lightly.

NFL Power Rankings Week 17
by Robert Ferringo - 12/27/2022

One of the themes that I’ve discussed in this space all season is that the NFL is a fundamentally different game now than it was as recently as five years ago. By extension, betting on the NFL has taken on a completely different form. There is a multitude of reasons for the changes, but the end result is that games are much closer and lower scoring than they have been in decades.

NFL Power Rankings Week 16
by Robert Ferringo - 12/20/2022

Betting on sports really can be masochistic sometimes. And last week, after watching a rash of come-from-behind wins like the NFL has never seen, I feel like anyone getting ready to bet again on pro football this week must secretly love the pain.

NFL Power Rankings Week 15
by Robert Ferringo - 12/13/2022

It looks like Mother Nature is going to have her say in the NFL playoff race. December football is a completely different beast than games played during the rest of the regular season. The stakes are higher. Teams rarely have their full complement of players due to injury. Shifting motivational and situational factors come into play.

NFL Power Rankings Week 14
by Robert Ferringo - 12/6/2022

I don’t like to have wild swings in my NFL Power Rankings. The reason is that I expect these to be a static, stoic, sober view of the pro football hierarchy each week. And to do that, you need to avoid wild swings, overcorrections, and overreactions to short-term results.

NFL Power Rankings Week 13
by Robert Ferringo - 11/29/2022

I have talked about it often in this space, but I just want to be unequivocal in my stance about young quarterbacks in the NFL: No team should ever start a rookie quarterback. Ever. Under anything less than emergency circumstances. And not only that, but with rare exception, quarterbacks should not go into their second season as the unquestioned starter. Anything short of that should be considered football malpractice.

NFL Power Rankings Week 12
by Robert Ferringo - 11/22/2022

I do want to take this opportunity to again point out that I will be releasing my football selections on Wednesday this week to accommodate the Thanksgiving holiday. That goes for all of Doc’s football handicappers, and we want to get our clients to be able to get their action in early and then sit back and enjoy an orgy of alcohol, eating and gambling that would make the Romans blush.

NFL Power Rankings Week 11
by Robert Ferringo - 11/15/2022

I know that relying on thoughts and feelings and anecdotal evidence is usually the first step toward certain death as a handicapper. However, I’m starting to get the feeling that rather than look at the NFL bye week as a positive when handicapping teams, maybe we are approaching the time when we should start fading teams off a week of rest.

NFL Power Rankings Week 10
by Robert Ferringo - 11/8/2022

That adage is an inside joke that I used to have with a now-deceased client whom I would trade emails with. And it pretty much sums up the general absurdity and unpredictability of anything related to the game of football. We’ve passed the halfway point of the regular season, and things look murkier than ever. But it’s actually not. There is a very clear theme and throughline that has run through this NFL season. The seeming randomness of it all is a weakness on the part of us, the general betting public, and the bobblehead media to accept The Truth.

NFL Power Rankings Week 9
by Robert Ferringo - 11/1/2022

This week marked the close to one of the most active and aggressive trade deadlines in recent NFL history. Pro Bowlers on both sides of the ball were being dealt left and right, and I don’t ever remember this many top-end talents changing teams in the middle of the season.

NFL Power Rankings Week 8
by Robert Ferringo - 10/25/2022

Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve pointed out the cash cow that NFL underdogs and NFL ‘under’ betting has been this season. Scoring is depressed. That leads to closer games and more value on taking the points. It also, obviously, leads to more games going ‘under’.

NFL Power Rankings Week 7
by Robert Ferringo - 10/18/2022

Do you remember, “The Lego Movie”? If you have kids between the ages of 6-16, then I’ll almost guarantee you’ve watched that movie at some points since its 2014 release. And even if you don’t have kids, I thoroughly recommend it because of its brilliant deconstruction (and affirmation) of film tropes as well as its biting critique of the opposing political views of authoritarianism and hyper-liberalism.

NFL Power Rankings Week 6
by Robert Ferringo - 10/12/2022

Apparently, betting on the NFL is as easy as just taking the points. Underdogs have been absolutely killing it early in the season. Last week the dogs went 10-5 against the spread, and so far this season, puppies are an outstanding 46-31 ATS. That’s a 60 percent success rate through five weeks of the year.

NFL Power Rankings Week 5
by Robert Ferringo - 10/4/2022

An NFL-record 15 of the 16 NFL games last week were within one score at some point during the fourth quarter. Through four weeks of the season, 50 of the 64 games played have been within eight points – one touchdown and a two-point conversion – at some point in the fourth, also an NFL record.

NFL Power Rankings Week 4
by Robert Ferringo - 9/27/2022

The first month of the season follows an obvious pattern every single year. There is a seven-month buildup to Week 1. That is met with some odd opening week results thanks to some teams being overprepared and some underprepared. Following the opening week and prior to Week 2, there is a ridiculous overreaction to the Week 1 results. The reaction to Week 2 isn’t quite as bad but still enough to make everyone scramble to revise their preseason predictions after an 11-day stretch of football.

NFL Power Rankings Week 3
by Robert Ferringo - 9/20/2022

Generally speaking, NFL offenses are usually ahead of NFL defenses early in the season. As a result, September is usually one of the highest scoring months of any given year throughout the league. If that’s the case for this season, then we have a lot of ugly football ahead of us. Through two weeks, scoring is down league wide. That’s too small of a sample size to warrant being considered a legitimate trend. However, it has been bad enough to raise some eyebrows and has had a significant impact on the totals betting market.

NFL Power Rankings Week 2
by Robert Ferringo - 9/13/2022

One of the most important skills that an NFL bettor can have is a good hype filter. You need to be able to separate verifiable fact from mainstream fiction. Having a long-term perspective and not overreacting to everything that happens on a week-to-week basis is absolutely crucial. If not, you will simply get swept up in a wave of public sentiment and see your bankroll circle the drain right along with your pride.

NFL Power Rankings Week 1
by Robert Ferringo - 9/6/2022

“Who is going to win the Super Bowl?” I probably get asked this question more than any other. When people find out that I am a professional sports handicapper, their first question comment is usually something like, “So you’re a bookie.” I then explain to them that I am the exact opposite of a bookie. I’m the guy that beats the bookie.

NFL Power Rankings Week 18
by Robert Ferringo - 1/4/2022

Welcome to Week 18. This is the first Week 18 in NFL history. It’s being dubbed and advertised as the “season finale”. That’s cute. But it is also telling. Because like most television shows, there are always some unexpected twists and turns in the final episode of the season. That is actually important to remember as we put a wrap on the season.

NFL Power Rankings Week 17
by Robert Ferringo - 12/28/2021

This is the first season in which the NFL will play 17 games. However, right now, with COVID absolutely ravaging the sports world (and the real world, for that matter), I think everyone in professional football – from players to coaches to owners to fans to bettors – just wants this season to end as quickly as possible.