NFL Power Rankings Week 2
Don’t let the Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football games fool you.
Points were hard to come by in Week 1 of the NFL season.
The clearest defining trend through the opening week of the year was that the teams combined to go 4-12 against the total. The ‘under’ was cashing left and right and the majority of the games weren’t even close to the number.
A low-scoring opening week isn’t unusual. In fact, it’s becoming a clear trend. Over the last five years, NFL teams have now gone a combined 28-52 against the total in Week 1, just a 35 percent success rate. Last year the 16 games went 9-7 against the total. But in 2023 (4-12), 2022 (5-11) and 2021 (6-10) it was a windfall for ‘under’ bettors.
Week 2 has been more erratic over the past four seasons. Last year’s 9-7 mark in Week 1 was toppled by a 5-11 run against the total in Week 2. In 2023, the teams matched this year’s scoring ineptitude (4-12 vs. total) only to snap back with a 13-3 ‘over’ mark in Week 2.
Overall, teams have gone 31-33 against the total in Week 2 over the past four seasons.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Buffalo Bills (1-0) – As I mentioned last week, I always defer to the Super Bowl champions as the default No. 1 team in my power rankings. I don’t think the Bills have the best roster. Their secondary was a train wreck last week and they got pushed around. However, they have the best player and they have the most favorable schedule of any of the top teams. Compare Buffalo’s division with the other teams in the top half of these rankings; the Bills are virtually guaranteed a division title. Buffalo has struggled in New York in recent years, losing two of their past three road games against the Jets and winning just 23-20 there last season.
2. Baltimore Ravens (1-0) – Sunday night was the seventh time since the start of the 2022 season that the Ravens have lost a game outright in which they held a double-digit lead. They have eight losses over the last five years in games where they had a win probability of 90 percent or more. One of the biggest plays – in a game full of “WOW” moments – was one of its most subtle. Baltimore, leading 40-25, punted from its own 41 with 7:27 to play. The punt should’ve been downed at the 1- or 2-yard-line, but Baltimore’s Trenton Simpson foolishly slid to down the ball and slipped into the end zone, resulting in a touchback. If the Bills start that drive at their own 1 I don’t think they come back and win.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) – This week’s Eagles-Chiefs game is the 11th time in NFL history that there will be a rematch of Super Bowl opponents the following regular season. This is the third year in a row it has happened. The team that won the Super Bowl is 8-2 in the rematch the following season. One of the only wins for the Super Bowl losers came in 2023 when the Eagles beat Kansas City 23-17 in Nov. 2023.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) – The Chiefs are home underdogs for the first time in three years. The last time they were catching points in Arrowhead they lost to Buffalo in Week 6 of the 2022 season. This is only the third time in his career that Patrick Mahomes is a home underdog. The underdog is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings between the Chiefs and Eagles, including both Super Bowl matchups.
5. Green Bay Packers (1-0) – The Packers came through for my top NFL win of the weekend, hammering Detroit in a game where Green Bay had full control. The Packers have a quick turnaround against another 2024 playoff team this week when they host Washington. Thursday night home teams are 11-6 SU in the month of September since the start of the 2021 season. Thursday night home teams in Week 2 are 8-5 SU since the 2012 season.
6. Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) – Did you know that “Pete Carroll-Jim Harbaugh Rivalry” has its own Wikipedia page? I did not. The Chargers were nearly flawless in their upset win over the Chiefs in Week 1. They looked the better side. We will see if there is any hangover from L.A.’s trip to Brazil this week when they head to Las Vegas. The Raiders have been a headache for Los Angeles in recent years, winning three of the last seven meetings while going 4-3 ATS.
7. Washington Commanders (1-0) – I can’t tell if the Giants offensive line was just really bad or if the Commanders front four was really good on Sunday. I’m sure it was a little of both. But after getting run over last year, Washington’s upgrades at the point of attack look like they are paying immediate dividends. The Commanders held New York to just 74 yards on 23 rushes and harassed Rusty Wilson with the pass rush all game (three sacks).
8. Los Angeles Rams (1-0) – I loved Sean McVay’s decision to throw the ball on 3rd-and-8 on L.A.’s final drive. He played for the win and put the ball in his best player’s hands rather than giving the ball back to Houston. Since the start of the 2022 season, the Rams are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite. The only game they didn’t cover was against the Giants in December of 2023.
9. Houston Texans (0-1) – Two turnovers and 11 penalties is not a recipe for winning on the road. Houston’s defense was excellent, as expected, but the Texans have real problems on offense right now. There are a lot of rumors about potential trading partners for Miami regarding Tyreek Hill. If I were Houston I would be at the front of the line.
10. Detroit Lions (0-1) – The line in the Chicago-Detroit game leapt from Detroit -4.5 to Detroit -6 following Chicago’s collapse on Monday Night Football. It looks like everyone is expecting the Bears to have a letdown after their catastrophic breakdown. Be wary: I’m sure Ben Johnson has had this game circled and may have some tricks up his sleeve against his former team. The Lions are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Bears. However, the underdog is 7-3 ATS in this series and six of those games were decided by six points or less.
11. Denver Broncos (1-0) – Are we sure Bo Nix is any good? Because I am not ready to concede that either Nix or Drake Maye is any good. The Broncos lost five of their last six road games last season, with the one win coming against the lowly Raiders. I’m a bit surprised that Denver is getting less than 50 percent of the action this week against the Colts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that number at a ‘pick’ by kickoff.
12. Minnesota Vikings (1-0) – J.J. McCarthy is trash. That was my takeaway from Monday night. Yes, I know the Vikings won. And it was just McCarthy’s first start. But absolutely nothing about his performance made me think he is going to be anything but a decent backup for his career. The Vikings are 6-0 ATS in their last six Monday Night Football games against nondivisional opponents.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) – Tampa Bay went 6-0 ATS last season as a nondivisional underdog, winning three games outright (at Chargers, at Eagles, at Lions). Baker Mayfield has been dominant in that role over the past two seasons, going 12-2 ATS as an underdog outside of the NFC South. That includes a 39-37 loss (but cover) at Houston in 2023 on a game where the Texans scored the game-winning touchdown with just six seconds left.
14. San Francisco 49ers (1-0) – Jake Moody has missed six kicks in four games. I don’t see any reason he shouldn’t be cut immediately. Brock Purdy left last week’s game a bit banged up and the 49ers, who don’t need any more injured receivers, lost Jauan Jennings and George Kittle to injury. They now have to play a second straight road game, this time with an early start time, and I think that Saints game is going to be a slog.
15. Seattle Seahawks (0-1) – What did I tell you? Sam Darnold is a Class A loser. Everyone else on the team played well enough to earn a win over the 49ers. But it was Darnold’s turnover on the final drive (so predictable) that doomed Seattle and its backers. The Seahawks are 8-10 SU and 7-11 ATS in their last 18 games east of the Mississippi River.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) – The dumb turnovers on the opening drive kind of told me that these are the same old Jaguars. They did a good job of taking the game out of Trevor Lawrence’s incompetent hands and the real key to their win over Carolina was the offensive line, allowing the lowest pressure rate of any passing game in Week 1 and helping the Jaguars rush for over 200 yards.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) – Sunday was the 12th time since the start of the 2021 season that the Steelers allowed 30 or more points in a regular season game. Pittsburgh is 9-2 SU and ATS in their last 11 games after surrendering 30+ and 4-7 against the total. They lost to the Chiefs (29-10) on Christmas last year one week after allowing 34 points in a loss to the Ravens.
18. Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) – The Bengals are clearly committed to that inside trap as the focal point of their running game. Cincinnati did not call a single designed running play outside of the tackles against the Browns. Chase Brown only mustered 43 yards on 21 rushes but the Bengals stayed committed to the ground game. Cincinnati’s front four also deserves credit. The Bengals secondary is the worst in the NFL. But the defensive line held the Browns to just 49 rushing yards on 24 carries.
19. Dallas Cowboys (0-1) – I tried to tell anyone that would listen: the Cowboys aren’t as bad as everyone thinks this year. Dallas should’ve beaten the Eagles in the Thursday night opener. Even in a loss this team should be playing with confidence against the Giants this week. The Cowboys have beaten the Giants eight straight times and are 9-1 in the last 10 meetings. Dallas is 7-1 ATS over the last four years.
20. Arizona Cardinals (1-0) – I don’t think it is great that Kyler Murray was kind of indistinguishable from Spencer Rattler for most of Sunday’s games. Murray is awful on just about any pass that has to travel more than eight yards down the field. He was indecisive and inaccurate. The Cardinals went 4-2 ATS as home favorites last year but Kyler Murray is just 9-13 ATS when laying points in Arizona.
21. Chicago Bears (0-1) – Yes, the Bears kicked themselves in the balls with some dumb penalties. And yes, Caleb Williams, who played very well, missed some big throws. However, that phantom holding call when Chicago was up 17-6 was the play that changed the game. The Bears would’ve been set up 1st-and-goal from the 12-yard-line with 49 seconds in the third quarter. Another phantom pass interference call in the fourth quarter led directly to a Vikings touchdown. The Bears got screwed by the refs as much as they screwed themselves with 12 penalties.
22. Atlanta Falcons (0-1) – Darnell Mooney is already out with a hamstring injury. Now Drake London sprained his shoulder in Atlanta’s gut-wrenching Week 1 loss to the Bucs. It’s an AC joint sprain and London is day-to-day, which means that he will play on Monday Night Football. The Falcons are 7-9 ATS in their last 16 Monday Night Football road games, including their upset win at Philadelphia last September.
23. New York Jets (0-1) – Wow. Justin Fields looked like a different dude. He was as impressive as any quarterback I watched last week. Of course, it makes sense that the former first round pick would finally be maturing into an NFL-caliber quarterback. This is his fifth year in the league. And despite his development being stunted by the idiotic decision to start him as a rookie, Fields looks like he could be a major factor for the Jets this season.
24. Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) – If you watched any of the Las Vegas-New England game you saw why the Seahawks were idiots for ditching Geno Smith and signing Sam Darnold. Smith was extremely accurate while torching the Patriots secondary for 361 yards. Even after Brock Bowers left with injury, Smith had no problem spreading the ball around and confidently moving the ball up the field.
25. Indianapolis Colts (1-0) – The Colts were the first team since 197 to score on every possession in a game, posting four field goals and three touchdowns on seven attempts against Miami. Daniel Jones had moments. He still missed a bunch of throws, though, and is still the same erratic arm he has always been. The Colts lost 31-13 at Denver last December in a game where the Indianapolis outgained the Broncos 310-193 and blew a 13-10 fourth quarter lead.
26. New England Patriots (0-1) – Wait: so the Patriots AREN’T going to the playoffs? This has been a big-time buzz team all offseason and the Patriots were Everyone’s Sleeper Team. They looked like a wet fart in their opener and this team still has a shocking lack of explosion on offense. The Patriots are 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS in their last nine games against the Dolphins, including five straight losses by nine or more points in Miami.
27. Cleveland Browns (0-1) – If Sunday was any indication (and if injuries can hold off), then the Browns defense will be closer to the 2023 version than the 2024 mess. I have ragged on Joe Flacco all offseason. And I still have my doubts. He did play fine in Week 1, though, and his touchdown throw to Cedric Tillman to go up 17-14 was a thing of beauty (you really need to see the angle from behind the quarterback to appreciate it).
28. Miami Dolphins (0-1) – Who is going to get fired first: Mike McDaniel or Brian Daboll? If you’re placing bets on midseason firings, those are two tickets you have to have. Honestly, I don’t think the Miami ownership really cares enough to fire McDaniel midseason so I would still have more money on Daboll not making it to Thanksgiving.
29. Tennessee Titans (0-1) – Cam Ward taking back-to-back sacks to knock the Titans back 27 yards and out of field goal range was the epitome of dumb rookie stuff. That said, why is Brian Callahan putting his rookie quarterback in that position? Tennessee, down 13-12, had just recovered a muffed punt at the Denver 24 and was in field goal range. Why not run the ball three times, burn two minutes off the clock (putting it under 10 minutes left in the game) and take the lead?
30. New Orleans Saints (0-1) – As I said, over the course of 17 games I think the Saints will prove themselves as the league’s worst team. However, when their starting 22 is healthy they still aren’t very good but they are certainly competitive. New Orleans outgained the Cardinals last week and had a chance to tie (or win) the game, holding the ball just 18 yards from Arizona’s end zone with 26 second left. This team looks like it will battle.
31. New York Giants (0-1) – Last weekend was the first time since 2019 that an underdog of 6.0+ didn’t win a Week 1 game. The Giants were a popular upset pick and really had Washington right where they wanted them early. New York had a 16-play drive that yielded three points and then forced a three-and-out. New York’s next four drives over the second and third quarters comprised of 16 plays, 24 yards, and four punts and the G-Men never really threatened to make this a game.
32. Carolina Panthers (0-1) – All summer I’ve said that Carolina’s second half “surge” last season was an aberration. This is still a terrible team. The defense looked improved for about a half. They wore down as the game dragged on and couldn’t hold the point of attack. Carolina also had two interceptions, a fumble, and two turnovers on downs. Bryce Young also threw a pick-six that was called back due to a penalty. All told, this was the worst team I saw in Week 1.
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