NFL Power Rankings Week 15
Well, I didn’t see that coming.
There was an offensive eruption in Week 14, with 11 of the 14 games going ‘over’ the total. The high-scoring outburst came despite quarterback injuries, bad weather, and heightened stakes across the league.
It also reversed a trend of the ‘under’ cleaning up across the league. In Weeks 11-13, the ‘under’ went a healthy 29-16 (64.4 percent).
Five teams had an offensive yards per point below 10.0: Cincinnati, Seattle, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Detroit. That means that those five teams scored way more points than their offenses should’ve generated. Those extra points were the results of special teams touchdowns, short fields resulting from turnovers, penalties, or other fluky situations.
So, what will this weekend hold? Will it be a regression back to low-scoring December football? There are three games that should be played in snow or rain and four more that will likely be played in below-freezing temperatures. Nine of the 16 games on the docket will also feature either a rookie quarterback or a backup under center.
Then again, I thought the same thing last week – and how did that go?
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Los Angeles Rams (10-3) – Last year the Rams were 5.5-point underdogs on the road at Detroit in Week 1. That came after a 24-23 playoff loss in Detroit in the 2023-24 postseason. Now the Rams are 5.5-point home favorites and playing with double revenge.
2. Seattle Seahawks (10-3) – Four of Seattle’s last six games have been wins by 22 or more points. That is the sign of a great team: they bury helpless opposition. This week they will have to avoid looking past the Colts and ahead to next Thursday’s potentially NFC-defining Thursday night home game with the Rams.
3. Green Bay Packers (9-3-1) – I said it in last week’s Power Rankings: Jordan Love is dealing. He was nearly flawless against Chicago. Yes, he had that odd interception. Other than that, he didn’t miss a single throw and he really hasn’t missed a throw over the last two weeks. When Love is playing like this, now with healthy receivers and a Top 10 defense, the Packers are true Super Bowl contenders.
4. Buffalo Bills (9-4) – Buffalo’s defense has allowed 30 or more points in three of their last five games and 23 or more in four of their last five. The Bills are just 5-15 straight up in their last 20 games in Foxboro and they are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games against the Patriots.
5. New England Patriots (11-2) – If the Patriots are for real – and I still have my doubts – then they have a chance to prove it this week. I actually think they are at a disadvantage coming off a bye week. But other than that, they are at home, on a 10-game winning streak, with extra time to heal up, and facing an opportunity to put the division title in their pocket and take a massive step toward the No. 1 seed. Let’s see who they really are.
6. Denver Broncos (11-2) – I honestly think this is one of the weakest 11-2 teams I’ve ever seen. They have been at their best at home, though. The Broncos are 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. Denver is also 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against NFC opponents. The Broncos haven’t been good as underdogs (3-7 SU) but they have been excellent at home and against NFC opposition.
7. Houston Texans (8-5) – By ranking the Texans this high, I’m trying to get out ahead of them. I think that this team has the potential to win out its last four games and be an absolute bear to deal with in the playoffs. Houston is 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven home games. However, they are just 6-14 SU in their last 20 games against NFC opponents.
8. Detroit Lions (8-5) – The Lions have scored 34 or more points in three of their last five games (and put up 24 against Green Bay). That said, five of their last six games against the Rams have gone ‘under’. The Lions are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 road games and they are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games.
9. Los Angeles Chargers (9-4) – A win is a win. But god, what a mess. The Chargers gained only 106 yards through the air, allowed seven sacks, lost two fumbles, settled for five field goals, and needed five turnovers from Jalen Hurts to barely beat the Eagles (at home).
10. San Francisco 49ers (9-4) – Last year the 49ers bottomed out after their bye week, going just 2-7 SU in the nine games after a week off. However, in the seven years prior to that San Francisco went a combined 42-12 SU after their bye week.
11. Chicago Bears (9-4) – Run the ball. It’s pretty simple. Eight of Chicago’s first 10 plays last week were pass plays. The three runs went for 17 yards. The eight passes resulted in -10 yards. Once the Bears started establishing the run and then passing off that, they took over that game and were the better team. The problem is that they were essentially down 14-3 at that point.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4) – I will admit that I might have this team ranked too low. They’ve won and covered four straight games, with three of the wins coming by 17 points or more. The reality is that if the Jaguars can avoid kicking themselves in the dick with stupid turnovers and/or penalties then they have enough talent to beat anyone.
13. Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) – This is the game that will show if there are truly fundamental, foundational problems with this Eagles team. They haven’t played great all season. However, look at their schedule over the past several weeks: Packers, Lions, Cowboys, Bears and Chargers (with three of those on the road). If the Eagles can’t pummel the hapless Raiders, at home, in a must-win situation, then they really are toast.
14. Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1) – Jake Ferguson was a disaster in Dallas’ Thursday loss to Detroit. His needless fumble was a game-changer and set off a sequence of Cowboys stupidity that turned a 10-6 game to a 27-9 one. A bad hands to the face penalty also wiped out what would’ve been a first-and-goal opportunity and an OPI penalty detoured a late drive when the Cowboys were down 10.
15. Kansas City Chiefs (6-7) – Kansas City’s Week 1 loss to the Chargers in Brazil snapped a seven-game Chiefs winning streak over Los Angeles. That said, only one of those seven wins came by more than a touchdown and eight of the last nine games between these two have been decided by seven points or fewer. Half of their last 10 matchup have been determined by three points or less, or in OT.
16. Indianapolis Colts (8-5) – What a disaster. First, they lose Daniel Jones for the year. Anthony Richardson is still hurt (and wasn’t the answer anyway). Now Riley Leonard is dealing with an unspecified knee injury. So as of Tuesday, we really have no idea who is going to be under center for the Colts on Sunday.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) – The Steelers are 22-1 SU in their last 23 home games on Monday Night Football. Overall, the Steelers have been awesome under the bright lights, going 22-5 SU in their last 27 games on MNF.
18. Baltimore Ravens (6-7) – I agree with those screaming that Isaiah Likely’s touchdown was, in fact, a touchdown. The minute the ball breaks the plane and someone has two feet in bounds it is a touchdown. That is the only “football act” that should mean anything when it comes to catches in the end zone. The Ravens have won three straight road games. They are off back-to-back losses and are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) – All of the focus on this team has been on the offensive injuries. Tampa Bay’s biggest problem is the defense. They are allowing 4.3 yards per carry and 70.5 percent completions over their last three games. They aren’t stopping the run or the pass. And Arizona and New Orleans, their last two opponents, aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts.
20. Carolina Panthers (7-6) – The Panthers will be the squarest play on the board this week. They are catching nearly 90 percent of the action early in the week at -2.5 and I can’t see the books not moving that one to 3.0 at some point. It doesn’t mean Carolina won’t win (or cover) this Sunday. But just know that is the going to be the biggest Joe Public play of Week 15.
21. Miami Dolphins (6-7) – Miami has won four straight and five of six overall. Their only loss was a closer-than-the-final-looked loss to the Ravens (Miami was -3 in turnovers, 0-for-3 in the red zone, and outgained the Ravens). Miami’s defense has made major improvements. They are No. 10 in yards allowed over their last three games and No. 3 in points allowed.
22. Cincinnati Bengals (4-9) – Cincinnati is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games against the Ravens, including their 32-14 upset over Baltimore on Thanksgiving. The Bengals are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games against Lamar Jackson and Co., though, and then benefitted from five turnovers (four fumbles) in that upset win.
23. Minnesota Vikings (5-8) – The Vikings became the first team since the 1992 Denver Broncos to lose while getting shut out one week and then win by shutout the next. As I’ve been saying all season: this team is nearly impossible to bet on or against on any given week.
24. Atlanta Falcons (4-9) – I hope Terry Fontenot has a good real estate agent. There is no way Atlanta’s general manager will be back for a sixth season and it is likely that he will pull Raheem Morris down the drain with him. Things must feel pretty bleak in this locker room right now. Atlanta has lost seven of eight overall (2-6 ATS) and as a team they have nothing to play for down the stretch.
25. New Orleans Saints (3-10) – The Saints have now covered three of their last four games. And with their remaining games coming against a bunch of bottom feeders they are throwing a scare into anyone that is sitting on an ‘under’ season win total for this group. I think they will steal two more wins straight up and will win at least two of the four games ATS to close out the season.
26. Arizona Cardinals (3-10) – This offense has been decimated by injuries. They just lost their left tackle. They are already down their quarterback, top two running backs, and four of their top five receivers. I simply don’t see how they are going to generate any offense on Sunday against Houston’s dominating defense.
27. Cleveland Browns (3-10) – It is kind of bizarre how the Cult of Shadeur has developed. He is a human Rorschach test. If you are in the cult, he can do no wrong. If you’re a hater, he can do no right. We’ll see what can do over this final month of the season. Cleveland has the No. 2 total defense in the NFL. However, they allow over 50 more yards per game on the road and they are No. 26 in the league in points allowed on the road.
28. Washington Commanders (3-10) – Now THAT is a sophomore slump. Jayden Daniels has made three appearances this year for the Commanders. He’s left each of the last three games with an injury – something that was a concern coming out of college because of his slight build. Daniels barely completed 60 percent of his passes this season with 10 total touchdowns and four interceptions.
29. New York Jets (3-10) – Keep an eye on Tyrod Taylor’s status this week. I think he is going to miss the Jaguars game. He left with a groin injury in the first quarter of last week’s home loss to the Dolphins. At his age, I don’t expect a quick rebound with that type of injury. The Jets have lost 10 of 12 road games and they are 6-21 SU in their last 27 away from home.
30. Tennessee Titans (2-12) – I know it looked like Tony Pollard had a monster day, going for 161 yards on 25 carries and two touchdowns. But 97 of his yards came on two carries, meaning he averaged just 2.8 yards outside of those two breakaway runs.
31. New York Giants (2-11) – The Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. And just like I said about the Browns last week, there is no way that the Giants should be laying points to any NFL team. The Giants have lost seven straight games outright and they are 3-22 SU in their last 25 games. New York is just 1-16 SU in its last 17 games against NFC opponents.
32. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11) – Unbelievable. The ending to that Raiders game was one of the most unbelievable bad beats that you will ever see. If you haven’t seen it, I’m not going to rehash it for you here. But do yourself a favor and go read the play-by-play. And yes, I did have Denver -7.5 and I had the ‘under’ at 40.5. I hope bad things happen to Denver safety Brandon Jones. I would wish terrible things on Pete Carroll but he’s already involved with the Raiders so that is punishment enough.
Robert Ferringo has posted seven of 10 winning football seasons, including last year thanks to an astounding +10,660 football run last season. Robert banked nearly +40,000 in profit between 2010-2019 for a 10-year average profit of nearly +4,000. He has earned 11 of 16 overall winning years and 69 of 114 winning months while also going 23-9 with his football futures rated 5.0+ and earning 16 of 19 winning Super Bowls. He is a member of the Football Writers Association of America and he is set for another amazing football season.
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