NFL Power Rankings Week 16
Don’t get rattled by the stakes.
This is a simple, yet important bit of advice for sports bettors. Just because a sporting event is taking place on a grand stage – the Super Bowl, the World Cup, the NBA Finals, etc. – that shouldn’t change the way that you handicap the game. Don’t get swept up.
Emotion is the enemy of good gambling. I’ve seen plenty of level-headed men turn into babbling, bumbling swine in the face of a high-profile matchup. Once the adrenaline and the drink gets its hooks in them, all common sense goes out the window. That’s when these swine reduce to their base nature and the true degenerate comes out to play.
The more you inject emotion into your decision making the more unreliable your choices become. That is why, for instance, I always say that I can find more value on a college basketball game on a Tuesday in December than I can on the Super Bowl or NBA Finals. Just because those are bigger games that doesn’t mean that they are better wagering situations.
And that’s what separates professionals like myself from amateurs and miscreants. I don’t care about the athletes or what they are playing for. I just care about the numbers. I just care about my money. And the minute you lose sight of that then you’re just begging to get caught up in a riptide of hysteria.
I bring this up because we have some monster games on the docket for Week 16.
Thursday, Los Angeles and Seattle are playing a game that could determine not just the NFC West title but also the No. 1 seed and home field advantage in the conference. Saturday, the Packers-Bears game will give one of those teams the pole position for the NFC North title and the No. 2 seed. And Sunday, the Bucs and Panthers are playing a game that will give the winner a massive advantage in the NFC South race.
One week. Three potential division titles on the line.
When you handicap those specific situations you shouldn’t handle them any differently than if those games were being played in September. If you wouldn’t like the teams, matchups, situations or numbers on those games in Week 3 then you sure as hell shouldn’t throw your money down on them just for the thrill of it.
Keep your nerve. The culling is upon us. From here on out, the NFL season will be defined more by loss than by heroism. There will be just one eventual champion. Everyone else will have excuses. The stakes are rising. And this is exactly when cooler heads prevail.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Los Angeles Rams (11-3) – Sunday was another game where the Rams dug themselves a hole simply because they refused to run the ball. Los Angeles dropped back on 23 of their first 33 offensive snaps and 27 of their first 37 in the first half. They finished with 28 designed running plays versus 44 drop backs – in a game where the Rams were averaging 5.5 yards per rush.
2. Seattle Seahawks (11-3) – Sam Darnold threw four interceptions in the first meeting with the Rams and the Seahawks still probably should’ve won that game. However, Seattle has had very little success versus the McVay Rams. The Seahawks are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games against Los Angeles and is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games against the Rams.
3. Buffalo Bills (10-4) – The Bills are now 16-1 straight up in their last 17 games in the month of December. The Browns are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games against the Browns and Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last five Sunday road games. The Bills are 0-2 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite and 3-11 ATS when laying 10 or more dating back to 2022.
4. Denver Broncos (12-2) – The weather should be on Denver’s side again this week versus the Jaguars. Temperatures are supposed to be in the low 30’s and high 20’s with 10 mile-per-hour winds. Denver has won 12 straight home games (9-3 ATS) and they are 18-3 in their last 21 games in Mile High.
5. Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) – The Packers are 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS their last 15 games in Soldier Field and Green Bay is 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS its last 13 games against the Bears overall. They absolutely own the Bears.
6. Houston Texans (9-5) – I really think the Texans can pick their score against Las Vegas this week. Houston must get better in the red zone, though. They have made 15 red zone trips over their last three games. Only seven of those 15 trips have ended with a touchdown. They have scored a touchdown on just 10 of their last 23 red zone appearances.
7. Detroit Lions (8-6) – Detroit was a 6.0-point favorite over the Steelers before Pittsburgh played on Monday night. After Pittsburgh’s 28-15 win the Lions jumped to a clean 7.0-point chalk. The betting action isn’t that lopsided, with around 60 percent of all tickets coming in on the Lions. But the line move tells me that the big bettors have taken strong positions on the home team.
8. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4) – For all the talk about Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense, Los Angeles has quietly built one of the best defenses in the league. Los Angeles is No. 2 in total defense, No. 3 against the pass, No. 9 in points allowed and No. 3 in takeaways. The Chargers have held three straight opponents to 19 points or fewer and have allowed just one team to score over 20 points in their last seven games (avg: 17.3 PPG).
9. New England Patriots (11-3) – What does it tell you when the team that is currently No. 2 in the AFC race is posted as an underdog on the road to a 7-7 opponent? The underdog is 6-3 ATS in the Ravens-Patriots series.
10. San Francisco 49ers (10-4) – Here are the last four quarterbacks that the 49ers defense has faced: Jacoby Brissett, Bryce Young, Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward. Not surprisingly, San Francisco is on a 4-0 ATS run.
11. Chicago Bears (10-4) – It is getting harder and harder not to consider the Bears as legitimate contenders to win the NFC. Their weakness is still general sloppiness (penalties) and inexperience (coach, quarterback, overall). But from a talent perspective and when looking for weaknesses, the Bears are a team that can beat (or lose to) anyone on any given Sunday.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) – The Jaguars offense has been humming. Since Halloween, Jacksonville has averaged 32.8 points per game over their last seven games. They will be facing one of the best defenses in football this week in Denver. But they also hung 35 points on the Chargers and 29 on the Texans last month so Jacksonville has proven that they can put up points against top-tier defenders.
13. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) – I think that if the Eagles had played New England’s schedule this year, and if the Patriots had played Philadelphia’s schedule this year, then we would be having two very different conversations about both teams. The Eagles are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games against NFC East opponents.
14. Kansas City Chiefs (6-8) – After you’ve played in five Super Bowls in six years, how do you play for pride in meaningless December games?
15. Indianapolis Colts (8-6) – Uncle Phil looked sharp last week. His back-shoulder throw on their final drive was as good of a throw – considering time, score, situation, and the fact that he’s only been on the roster for a few days – as anyone made last week. The Colts are 11-3 SU in their last 14 home games but are just 2-10 SU in their last 12 games on Monday Night Football. They’ve lost five straight MNF games while going 1-4 ATS.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) – Meh. That’s my takeaway from Monday’s win over Miami. Pittsburgh played well. They made it 23 in a row at home on Monday Night Football and they were able to get a rare win without T.J. Watt (now 2-10 without him). But I can’t say I was extremely impressed with any aspect of that win (outside of D.K. Metcalf tossing Minkah Fitzpatrick, which was hilarious).
17. Baltimore Ravens (7-7) – This is the home finale for the Ravens. Their next two games are at Green Bay and at Pittsburgh. They know that if they want those games to mean anything they will need to take out the Patriots this week. The Ravens are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games and they have beaten the Patriots just three times since the start of the 2013 season.
18. Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1) – Wait: I thought Dallas fixed its defense? Just kidding. They still suck on that side of the ball and have gone ‘over’ in three straight. Dallas has allowed 35.3 points per game in their last three and the only team they’ve held below 20 points this year was the Raiders. The ‘over’ is 9-2 in their last 11 games.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) – The Bucs are 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games against Carolina. Tampa Bay has won five of their last six games in Charlotte and the Bucs are 5-2 SU in their last seven divisional games.
20. Carolina Panthers (7-7) – NFL media bobbleheads have been slobbering over the Panthers for weeks. I am one of the few analysts that has been consistent in my assessment of this team: they stink. They aren’t good. They have some decent players. But this defense is suspect, Bryce Young is weak, and there isn’t as much talent on this roster as you would expect from a team that picks in the Top 10 seemingly every year.
21. Miami Dolphins (6-7) – The Dolphins are just 5-23 SU in their last 28 games when posted as an underdog. Miami has kind of owned the Bengals, though, going 17-6 SU in their last 23 games against Cincinnati and winning nine of 10 home games against them.
22. Minnesota Vikings (6-8) – Minnesota is leading the NFL in red zone efficiency over the last three weeks, converting 77.8 percent of their offensive opportunities into touchdowns. They are also No. 3 in the league in red zone defense over that span and are currently No. 2 in the league in red zone stops this season.
23. Cincinnati Bengals (4-10) – At first, my thought was, “Why would I trust Cincinnati as a favorite?” However, a little deeper dive shows that the Bungles are 7-1 straight up in their last eight games when laying points and a ridiculous 29-11 SU in their last 40 games when dressing up as a favorite.
24. Atlanta Falcons (5-9) – When are people going to give it up with the discussions about where Kirk Cousins should play next year? This guy sucks. He is shot. He is done. He was never all that great when he was in his prime. He can’t move. He has one playoff win (in five chances) in his career. Let it go.
25. New Orleans Saints (4-10) – This Saints defense has quietly been solid during New Orleans’ current 4-1 ATS surge. New Orleans is only allowing a 36.9 percent conversion rate on third down this year and they are yielding just 17.8 points per game over the last five weeks.
26. Washington Commanders (4-10) – Even after last week’s win, Washington is just 2-9 SU And 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games. The Commanders are just 4-13 SU in their last 17 games against Philadelphia and they are just 3-8 SU and ATS in their last 11 games against NFC opponents.
27. Arizona Cardinals (3-11) – Jonathan Gannon is supposed to be a defensive guy, right? Well, the Cardinals have been torched for 40 or more points in four of their last six games. Arizona is allowing an average 36.2 points per game during this stretch and have gone ‘over’ in five of their last six.
28. Cleveland Browns (3-11) – The levy has obviously broken with this defense, which isn’t as good as its ranking suggests. Cleveland has allowed 23 or more points in six of their last seven games. The one team they held below 23 points was the Raiders, which almost doesn’t count. Their opponents have averaged just 10.3 yards per point over the last three weeks.
29. New York Jets (3-11) – Again: Aaron Glenn is in way over his head. The fact that he hired Steve Wilks – a guy he’s never worked with and that runs a completely different system then what Glenn ran in Detroit – is a joke. Wilks has lasted exactly one year in each of his last six NFL jobs. And only twice has Wilks fielded a defense that finished in the Top 20.
30. Tennessee Titans (2-12) – The Titans have scored 24 or more points in three of their last four games. That came after a stretch where they were held to 19 or fewer points in 20 of their previous nine games. The primary reason isn’t Cam Ward. Tennessee has run for 453 yards and 5.0 yards per carry over the past four games.
31. New York Giants (2-12) – We are now up to five times that Jaxson Dart has been evaluated for a concussion this season and we know that he has suffered at least two of them. This is just another example of what I have been saying for years: starting a rookie quarterback in the NFL is a terrible idea.
32. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12) – Pete Carroll’s son, Brennan, is currently the offensive line coach for the Raiders. Each week, Las Vegas is trotting out one of the worst offensive lines of the decade. I’m not going to pin all that on Nepo Bren. However, he certainly isn’t the one to fix the problem.
Robert Ferringo has posted seven of 10 winning football seasons, including last year thanks to an astounding +10,660 football run last season. Robert banked nearly +40,000 in profit between 2010-2019 for a 10-year average profit of nearly +4,000. He has earned 11 of 16 overall winning years and 69 of 114 winning months while also going 23-9 with his football futures rated 5.0+ and earning 16 of 19 winning Super Bowls. He is a member of the Football Writers Association of America and he is set for another amazing football season.
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