NFL Power Rankings Week 18
I’m going to do something a little different this week. For the first time, I’m going to submit my completely unofficial and meaningless ballot for the major awards in the NFL.
MVP: Josh Allen (BUF)
Get out of here with that Drake Maye nonsense. According to Bill Barnwell, New England has played the 10th-easiest schedule of any team since 1970 and the second-easiest schedule of any team in the 21st century. Josh Allen is the best player in the NFL and he is literally carrying the Bills every week. The same can be said for Herbert, who has gotten physically abused every week while playing behind the NFL’s worst offensive line. Those two have very clearly been better than Maye this season.
Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert (LAC), Christian McCaffrey (SF)
Offensive POY: Christian McCaffrey (SF)
McCaffrey is set to go over the 1,000-yard mark in both rushing and receiving. He’s played with multiple quarterbacks, and he has been the constant on an offense that has had had all kinds of injuries at receiver, tight end, and the offensive line. His 303 carries are a career high and he enters Week 18 with a ridiculous 399 touches.
Honorable Mention: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA), Jonathan Taylor (IND), Bijan Robinson (ATL)
Defensive POY: Myles Garrett (CLE)
Here is the easiest call on the board. Garrett is one sack away from setting a new single-season record. And even if he does come up short in Week 18 he has still had a career year while toiling for one of the worst organizations in sports. Jeffrey Simmons and Maxx Crosby both deserve recognition for the same; they were both awesome while being surrounded by trash. And Nahshon Wright’s 10 forced turnovers should be acknowledged as well.
Honorable Mention: Jeffrey Simmons (TEN), Will Anderson (HOU), Nahshon Wright (CHI)
Offensive ROTY: Emeka Egbuka (TB)
I really think that whoever plays better between Tet McMillan and Egbuka should win the award. They appear to be the only two players that will top 1,000 yards rushing or receiving from the rookie class. Both are studs. But it has been shocking to see Tampa Bay’s season track almost perfectly with Egbuka’s production. When he was putting up big numbers early in the year as the team’s No. 1 wideout they were winning games. Tampa is 0-4 the last four weeks and, not surprisingly, his numbers have dropped to just 10 catches and 139 yards.
Honorable Mention: Tetairoa McMillan (CAR), Harold Fannin (CLE), TreVeyon Henderson (NE)
Defensive ROTY: Carson Schwesinger (CLE)
Here is another pretty easy call. Schwesinger has started at middle linebacker all season for one of the best defenses in football. He’s averaged around 10 tackles per game with 2.5 sacks and two interceptions.
Honorable Mention: James Pearce (ATL)
Coach of the Year: Kyle Shanahan (SF)
Mike Vrabel is going to win the award as a result of New England’s turnaround. But Shanahan has done more with less. The 49ers have been racked by injuries all season long – something the Pats haven’t had to deal with – and they play in the best division in football. I have ragged on Shanahan plenty in his career (and for good reason) but what he’s done this season has been amazing.
Honorable Mention: Mike Vrabel (NE), Mike Macdonald (SEA), Liam Coen (JAX)
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Seattle Seahawks (13-3) – The Seahawks actually opened as underdogs at San Francisco this week. But the sharps quickly took a position on Seattle and swung the number nearly three full points. The Seahawks are just 1-7 straight up and 2-6 against the spread their last eight games against the 49ers.
2. Houston Texans (11-5) – These idiots couldn’t blow out the Raiders the week prior, when I had a big play on them, but had no issues going on the road and manhandling a playoff-bound Chargers squad. Makes perfect sense. Houston has won eight straight games, going 6-2 ATS, and they have won their last four games outright when posted as an underdog.
3. Denver Broncos (13-3) – The Chargers are waving the white flag this week, resting Justin Herbert and several other starts. Do we still trust the Broncos to cover two touchdowns, though? They are 1-6 ATS this season as a favorite of seven or more points. They did blow out Kansas City 38-0 in a similar situation in last year’s Week 18.
4. Los Angeles Rams (12-4) – Sean McVay can complain all he wants about L.A.’s offense. But the Rams have stumbled down the stretch, losing three of their last five games, because their defense has allowed four of their last five opponents to score 27 or more points. The Rams are yielding an average of 33 points per game over their last three and 29.4 over their last five.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) – The Jaguars have won seven straight games and are 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last nine games. What is most impressive about this stretch is that six of the nine games were played on the road. They have won their last three home games by 28, 17 and 29 points. This team will be motivated to lock up the division title and to secure a home game next weekend.
6. Buffalo Bills (11-5) – Here is what I think about going for two to win a game: if you are at home and/or you are the favorite in a game you play for overtime and extend the game. If you are the underdog or playing on the road then I’m cool with taking your shot at the win. I’m not ragging on Sean McDermott because his two-point attempt didn’t work. (Josh Allen, frankly, was awful on Sunday.) I said before the play that there is no way I wouldn’t play for overtime if I were Buffalo.
7. San Francisco 49ers (12-4) – The 49ers are 30-11 SU in their last 41 home games. However, they are just 3-10 SU and ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. San Francisco has gone ‘over’ in six of eight games while their offense has averaged a robust 34.3 points per game.
8. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) – Trey Lance will get the start for the Chargers this week. I would put his rushing yards over/under around 28.5 and lean ‘over’.
9. Chicago Bears (11-5) – The Bears had clinched the division title on Saturday and on Sunday 10-12 guys were still dealing with a flu-like illness that ripped through Chicago’s locker room last week. They had all the reason in the world to mail it in on Sunday night in San Francisco. Instead, they were two yards away from a serious road upset. This team is absolutely legit.
10. New England Patriots (13-3) – New England’s opponents this year have a .386 winning percentage, by far the worst in the league. The Patriots and Denver both kickoff at 4:25 p.m. so I would expect Vrabel to do some scoreboard watching. If Denver is laying into the Chargers, don’t be surprised to see Vrabel pull some starters in the second half. I also can’t imagine that Vrabel is too happy with Stefon Diggs for being his usual distracting self.
11. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) – The Eagles are the first team since the 1987 Patriots to have multiple games with zero completed passes in the same season. Philadelphia has actually had three halves of football this season in which they had negative total passing yards (pass yards – sack yards). The Eagles won both games in which they had zero completed passes in one half and they have won all three games in which they had negative total passing yards in a half.
12. Green Bay Packers (9-6-1) – The Packers are already locked into the No. 7 seed in the NFC and will obviously be resting Jordan Love. Put me in the camp that says they shouldn’t stop there and The Pack should rest everyone they can. Josh Jacobs shouldn’t play. Their key receivers should all sit and Matt Golden and Bo Melton should get about 15 targets apiece. I would also rest as much of the starting defense as physically possible.
13. Detroit Lions (8-8) – There is no way that Dan Campbell is going to rest his starters this week against the Bears. I’ve seen headlines questioning whether he will. Have you met Dan Campbell? Detroit, which has lost three straight and four of five, will absolutely play to win on Sunday. They embarrassed Chicago 52-21 back in Week 2 and may have to pay for it.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) – I know I’ve said it plenty of times in this space: but got Aaron Rodgers is an all-time loser. What the hell was he doing on those last three passes to Marquez Valdes-Scantling? Why was he trying to force feed the ball to that dud? I’m leaning Pittsburgh this week, but a big part of me hopes that Rodgers gets humiliated and watches his career end in shame with a loss.
15. Baltimore Ravens (8-8) – When did “Snoop” Huntley become a thing? The Ravens have been favored in Pittsburgh three times in the last four years. They’ve lost all three of those games outright. The favorite is just 3-7 ATS in this series and the Ravens are just 3-9 SU in their last 12 games against Pittsburgh. Baltimore is 12-28 SU in its last 40 games in Pittsburgh.
16. Indianapolis Colts (8-8) – This team is going to be fascinating this offseason. What do they do with Daniel Jones? What about Shane Steichen and Chris Ballard? With some light maneuvering, they will have over $60 million in cap space but no first-round draft pick. Where does this team – which started 8-2 and looked outstanding – go from here?
17. Carolina Panthers (8-8) – Twelve of Carolina’s 14 wins as a starter have come on game winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime. If you like the Panthers this week – and they are getting less than a field goal – then I feel like you have to take them on the moneyline. Carolina is just 7-30 SU in its last 37 road games.
18. Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1) – This is where playing on a Thursday late in the season may come back and bite a team and coaching staff. Dallas has nothing to play for. They have had extra days off over the holidays because they played on Dec. 25. They are out of routine. This is also the second week in a row the Cowboys are traveling to face a division rival. Do we really expect these guys to come ready to play in below-freezing temperatures up in New York?
19. Miami Dolphins (7-9) – As of Tuesday, the forecast is calling for 25 degrees and a slight chance of snow in Foxboro on Sunday. The Dolphins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against the Patriots. Miami is just 6-18 SU in its last 24 trips to Foxboro, but they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games at New England.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) – The Bucs have won nine of their last 11 games against the Panthers. They have won six straight at home versus Carolina, going 6-0 ATS, in those games. If not for a late interception with Tampa Bay driving for the tying field goal or winning touchdown, Tampa likely would’ve beaten the Panthers in the first meeting. Tampa lost despite outgaining Carolina, with that lone turnover serving as the difference.
21. Cincinnati Bengals (6-10) – These guys haven’t quit. That speaks well to Zach Taylor’s standing in the locker room. I don’t know if it will be enough to justify keeping him but it is worth noting. The Bengals are on a 5-1 ATS run. They are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games against the Browns and 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games against Cleveland.
22. Minnesota Vikings (8-8) – The favorite has been the play in the Vikings-Packers series over the past several years, going 6-2 ATS. Also, the outright winner in the Packers-Vikings series has covered the spread in 12 straight meetings.
23. Atlanta Falcons (7-9) – Don’t underestimate the pure hatred that exists between Atlanta and New Orleans. This game doesn’t mean anything in the standings. But both teams will be ready to fight. The Falcons won the first meeting this year. They haven’t swept the Saints since taking both games in 2016.
24. Kansas City Chiefs (6-10) – We know the Chiefs hate the Raiders. Do they hate them enough to throw this game, lose to Las Vegas, and force the Raiders out of the No. 1 overall pick in the draft? That would be some epic spite stuff.
25. New Orleans Saints (6-10) – I’m not buying Tyler Shough even a little bit. However, I will say that Kellen Moore has really shown me something as a rookie head coach. He basically took a job that no one else wanted and he has gotten competitive football out of the Saints all season. They have quietly won four straight games SU and five straight ATS. The Saints have also averaged 26.8 points per game over the last four after managing just 11.8 points per game in their previous six.
26. Washington Commanders (4-12) – Frankie Luvu is a guy that can play on my team any day. I love his physicality and passion and he is a playmaker. But you have to take the bad with the good with him. His idiotic 15-yard personal foul penalty for tackling Dak Prescott – when Prescott was literally about to spike the ball out of frustration for how the play ended – was ridiculous.
27. Cleveland Browns (4-12) – The Browns are just 1-14 SU in their last 15 road games and are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games away from home. The Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after a win over the past two seasons. Over the last four years they are just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games after an outright victory.
28. Tennessee Titans (3-13) – The Titans have lost nine straight games against their AFC South rivals. They are 3-18 SU and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 divisional games. The Titans have averaged 26.8 points per game over their last four after managing just 16.2 PPG in their previous 29 outings.
29. Arizona Cardinals (3-13) – This is what a team that quits on the season looks like. Arizona has lost eight straight games and is 1-7 ATS in those outings. Their last four losses have come by 28, 20, 7 and 23 points, respectively.
30. New York Giants (3-13) – I’m not sure why anyone would be surprised that the Giants decided to sabotage their own draft odds by going to Las Vegas and winning last week. They’ve done the same thing each of the past two years! They cost themselves a shot at Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels with late wins in 2023 and last year’s Week 17 win over the Colts cost them the No. 1 overall pick in last April’s draft. This clown car operation can’t even lose properly!
31. New York Jets (3-13) – Since the 1970 merger, there have been 34 head coaches fired after their first year with a team. Last year there were two, with Jerod Mayo and Antonio Pierce getting canned after their rookie coaching seasons. If Aaron Glenn gets the boot after his humiliating Year 1, he would continue be the eighth first-year head coach to get fired since the start of 2021 and would extend a streak of five straight years in which that’s happened.
32. Las Vegas Raiders (2-14) – Maxx Crosby did some solid trolling last week after he was shut down for the season against his will. He posted several videos of himself playing basketball and jumping on a trampoline, despite him not playing because he was “injured”. This remains, and will forever be, one of the most unserious organizations in all of professional sports.
Robert Ferringo has posted seven of 10 winning football seasons, including last year thanks to an astounding +10,660 football run last season. Robert banked nearly +40,000 in profit between 2010-2019 for a 10-year average profit of nearly +4,000. He has earned 11 of 16 overall winning years and 69 of 114 winning months while also going 23-9 with his football futures rated 5.0+ and earning 16 of 19 winning Super Bowls. He is a member of the Football Writers Association of America and he is set for another amazing football season.
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