NFL Power Rankings Week 12
Oh my god just take the goddamn points.
I understand that analytics revolution has forever changed the way that coaches execute game management in football. Teams are going for it on fourth downs at rates that the NFL has never seen and two-point conversions at seemingly odd times are now the norm. I get all of it and I’m cool with it.
However, some of this stuff is getting out of control and is circling all the way around back to outright stupidity.
And last Sunday, Miami’s Mike McDaniel and Detroit’s Dan Campbell both put on a master’s class of what NOT to do when coaching a football team.
Let’s start with Miami. First, McDaniel opted against a field goal from the two-yard line while down 13-6 midway through the third quarter. This decision is defensible. A touchdown would tie the game. And even if the Dolphins got stopped (which they did) they have the Commanders backed up in the shadow of their own end zone. No real problem there, I suppose.
Washington’s Dan “27-3” Quinn then really started to stretch the boundaries by electing not to kick a field goal from the one-yard line in a 13-13 game with 6:06 to play. Again, I guess I see the logic. But why not take the lead and put the pressure on a Dolphins offense that you’ve held to 13 points? Washington didn’t convert and was able to stop Miami and force a punt (which their returner muffed).
Then this is where it got ridiculous. Miami, starting from the Washington 42, ran seven plays, with the most consequential being an 18-yard run to the Washington 6 from Devon Achane (who foolishly ran out of bounds with 2:29 to play). After two short runs, a timeout, and the two-minute warning, Miami faced third-and-goal from the Washington 1-yard line. Achane got stoned, setting up fourth down.
What McDaniel should’ve done was clear and obvious. You run the clock down, kick a field goal, and then kick the ball off. Do that and you are up 16-13 with around 1:10 to play and Washington with the ball at their own 30 and no timeouts left.
Instead, Miami became just the second team since 2000 to opt AGAINST kicking a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the one-yard line in a tie game with under two minutes to play. The other was the Cincinnati Bengals in 2021. You never want to be on the same list as the Bengals. (Hat-tip to Josh Dubow of the Associated Press for the stat.)
Naturally, Miami got stopped (again; remember that they failed at the goal line in the third quarter as well). Washington got the ball. McDaniels – for reasons that defy all logic – started using his timeouts to help Washington move the ball down the field. The Dolphins were bailed out from their coach’s stupidity when Matt Gay missed a 56-yard field goal on the final play of regulation.
Miami won in overtime so there really hasn’t been any uproar over McDaniels’ bizarre decision-making.
Next, was Campbell. I’m not going to deep dive into all the specific decisions that he made in Detroit’s 13-6 loss to Philadelphia. But the Campbell-led offense turned the ball over on downs FIVE times against the Eagles. Five. Twice, Campbell passed up makeable field goals. Two other times he turned it over on his own side of the field. Philly scored six points directly after two turnovers on downs.
Take away those six points and add just three points Detroit would’ve picked up from making only one of the field goals and the Lions win 12-10.
Now, Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald did the opposite of both McDaniel and Campbell. Seattle settled for three field goals inside the Los Angeles red zone. The Seahawks moved the ball seemingly at will and Macdonald only went for it on fourth down one time (in the second quarter, down 14-6). And Macdonald’s patience helped Seattle hang around in a game where Sam Darnold threw four interceptions.
In fact, Seattle was a 61-yard field goal away from pulling the upset – specifically because Macdonald just took the points.
Again, I understand why coaches are all going for it on fourth downs. I understand the math. I understand that some coaches are trying to “send a message” or show how big their balls are. I can process field position analytics. And fans and media bobbleheads have fawned over guys like Campbell in the past for their ‘daring’.
But it doesn’t have to be as complicated as some of these guys are making it. And don’t believe their excuses when it fails. Don’t listen to them when they try to distract with theoretical math and analytics jargon.
Sometimes it’s just that easy. Take the goddamn points.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) – That is now four straight wins both straight up and against the spread for the Eagles. I think that all the media noise and drama around this team is actually helping suppress the market on them. The Eagles have scored only 26 points the last two weeks but still had no problem beating minuscule numbers against Green Bay and Detroit. The Eagles are now 24-3 straight up in their last 27 games.
2. Los Angeles Rams (8-2) – Los Angeles is No. 2 in the NFL this year in red zone defense, allowing opponents to score a touchdown on just 43.8 percent of their drives inside the 20. That is the only thing that saved them against Seattle last week. The Rams defense was on the field for nearly 38 minutes against the Seahawks and now they have to chase around Baker Mayfield. We will see if they wear down in the second half of this one.
3. Buffalo Bills (7-3) – Josh Allen deserves the credit for his six-touchdown day (three passing, three rushing) in the win over Tampa Bay. But his two interceptions and erratic arm early were also a big reasons the Bucs hung around in that game. I have no idea what he was thinking on that push pass in his own endzone. The Bills have won eight straight games on Thursdays.
4. Seattle Seahawks (7-3) – Tricky situation for a young team this week. Seattle is coming off back-to-back divisional games, including that powerhouse clash with the Rams last week. Now they have to go on the road as two-touchdown favorites against a completely overmatched Tennessee team. Don’t be surprised if Seattle isn’t sharp in this game.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) – The Chiefs haven’t been hard to figure out this year: they are 4-1 SU and ATS at home and 1-4 SU and ATS on the road. They are back in Arrowhead for what feels like a must-win game this week against the Colts. These two teams have squared off just once so far this decade, a 20-17 Indy win back in 2022.
6. Detroit Lions (6-4) – Detroit has alternated wins and losses, both straight up and against the spread, in their last six games. If form holds, that will mean a win this week. The Lions lost to Minnesota as a 9.5-point home favorite on Nov. 2. Yet they are 3-1 SU and ATS as a favorite of eight points or more. They are facing a Giants team that is 3-1 ATS in their last four games as an underdog of a touchdown or more.
7. Indianapolis Colts (8-2) – Tyler Warren’s 617 receiving yards this season are 150 more than all of Indy’s tight ends gained last year. Colstand Loveland, the Chicago Bears tight end foolishly taken ahead of Warren in the draft, has just 329 receiving yards this season. You can still find Warren around +600 to win the Rookie of the Year award this season.
8. New England Patriots (9-2) – With games against the Bengals, Giants, Jets and Dolphins still on the schedule there is a very realistic chance that the Patriots, who won just four games last year, could end up with the No. 1 seed in the AFC, a bye, and home field advantage. The Patriots are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. They are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Bengals.
9. Denver Broncos (9-2) – This is the perfect time for a bye week. Denver would’ve been ripe for a letdown this week after their gutsy win over the Chiefs, which all but assures them of the division title. The Broncos have 49 sacks in 11 games and are on pace to break the 1984 Bears record of 72 (in just 16 games). The difference between Denver’s sacks and the No. 2 team, Atlanta, is 15 sacks – more than San Francisco’s defense has mustered on the season (12).
10. Green Bay Packers (6-3-1) – The Packers are now a pathetic 1-7 ATS in their last eight games and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games. They are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven divisional games and they got swept by the Vikings last year, losing both games by exactly two points. The ‘over’ is 8-2 in Green Bay’s last 10 games against Minnesota.
11. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) – As seen on Reddit, “The Jaguars have given Jim (29 points) and John (37) Harbaugh their worst NFL margins of defeat in their coaching careers.”
12. San Francisco 49ers (7-4) – The 49ers have turned into an ‘over’ machine. They have beat the total in four straight games and seven of their last eight. San Francisco is averaging 33.7 points per game over their last three and they have allowed 20 or more points in four straight (28.5 PPG) and seven of their last eight. That is why the total in this week’s Monday Night Football game lurched from an open of 45.5 to its current spot at 49.0.
13. Houston Texans (5-5) – The Texans have had Josh Allen and Buffalo’s number. They are 3-1 in the last four meetings, including a 23-20 win last October. Houston has won six of its last eight games against the Bills and underdogs have been the play on Thursday night games this year.
14. Baltimore Ravens (5-5) – The Ravens are back home this week after three straight games away from home. The last time they were in that spot was 2023 and they came home and demolished the Lions 38-6 as a three-point favorite. The Ravens are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last nine home games after at least two consecutive road games.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4) – The Bucs just keep leaking oil. They have now been outgained in six straight games and have lost three of four both SU and ATS. The Bucs are just 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS in their last 10 games against the Rams and just 2-9 SU in their last 11 trips to Los Angeles.
16. Chicago Bears (7-3) – Caleb Williams’ escapability is incredible. I am wondering if pass rushers are going to start to key on his spin move, which he uses incredibly well. Williams is a magician at evading the rush and escaping trouble. He doesn’t make a ton of plays in the passing game when he gets out of the pocket but his rushing ability – while also avoiding big hits – has been a secret weapon for this offense.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) – I would be more surprised if Aaron Rodgers didn’t play this week than if he did. Mason Rudolph was sharp last week in relief, going 12-for-16 for 127 yards and a touchdown. But Rodgers has owned the Bears throughout his career and I’m sure he would love one more start in Chicago. This would also be a chance for the perpetually insecure Rodgers to prove how tough he is to his Steelers fans and teammates.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) – That was as dominating of a win as there has been in the NFL this season. The Jaguars didn’t punt, didn’t allow a sack, held the ball for 16 minutes more than the Chargers, and only allowed 135 total yards. Jacksonville also snapped an ugly streak of six straight games allowing 20 or more points. I fully expect the Jaguars to go out and flop as a road favorite against the Cardinals. Jacksonville is 2-19 ATS in their last 21 games against teams from the NFC West.
19. Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1) – The Cowboys pushed Philadelphia to the limit on the Thursday night opener this season. That 24-20 loss as an eight-point underdog was the first time in nine games that the underdog covered the spread in the Cowboys-Eagles series. The Cowboys are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven home games against Philadelphia.
20. Carolina Panthers (6-5) – I am going to keep banging the drum on this one because it is pretty obvious: Tetairoa McMillan is the real deal. This guy is going to be a consistent Pro Bowler and he may end up being personally responsible for Bryce Young eventually getting a contract extension. The Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against the 49ers and are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
21. Minnesota Vikings (4-6) – The Vikings didn’t do a good job of managing the clock late in the game against Chicago. Jalen Nailor’s decision to go out of bounds on his 16-yard catch with 1:01 left was a crucial mistake. And the Vikings probably should’ve run the ball at least once or twice in the final seven plays of their 10-play drive. They left the Bears too much time.
22. Miami Dolphins (4-7) – That is now wins in three of the past four games for the Dolphins, who are also 6-3 ATS in their last nine games. This is still a very flawed team that simply isn’t strong enough in the trenches. The Dolphins haven’t quit on McDaniel, though. We will see if they keep that edge after their bye week.
23. Arizona Cardinals (3-7) – Pharoah Brown’s holding penalty – the 13th penalty on Arizona in the first 32 minutes of the game – on 4th-and-1, which nullified a 60-yards Bam Knight touchdown, was essentially the end of that 49ers-Cardinals game. And for all intents and purposes, that may have been the final nail in Jonathan Gannon’s coffin.
24. Atlanta Falcons (3-7) – Michael Penix is out for the season due to his knee injury. Kirk Cousins looked like trash last week and is completing just 61.5 percent of his passes for 4.8 yards per pass this season. He is washed. I’m sure Cousins will have some moments down the stretch where he looks like his old, competent self. He’ll be playing without Drake London for at least this week, though, and the Falcons have lost seven of the last eight games Cousins has appeared in.
25. Cleveland Browns (2-8) – The Browns have lost 13 straight road games and are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games away from home. They are just 4-21 SU in their last 25 games overall and they are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games, despite benefitting from inflated lines in their favor. The Browns are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games and they don’t know who their quarterback is going to be this weekend.
26. Washington Commanders (3-8) – The preseason lookahead line on Washington’s game against Denver in two weeks (the Commanders are on a bye this weekend) was Washington -2.5. I expect the Commanders to be somewhere around a 6.5-point underdog when they return to action.
27. Cincinnati Bengals (3-7) – The Bungles are just 1-6 ATS this year in games that they have lost outright. They are just 2-12 ATS in games they lose over the past two seasons and since their Super Bowl loss to the Rams four years ago the Bengals are just 3-24 ATS in games that they lose.
28. Las Vegas Raiders (2-8) – I cannot believe that all the early action in the Browns-Raiders game this week has come in on Las Vegas. The spread on this game was 2.0 on the early release. Over 80 percent of the early week money has come in on the Raiders, who didn’t look like an NFL-caliber team on Monday Night Football. The spread has jumped to 3.5 and could get even higher by kickoff.
29. New Orleans Saints (2-8) – The Saints have covered three straight against the rival Falcons. New Orleans is 5-2 SU in the last seven meetings and 7-3 in the last 10 against Atlanta. This week is the first time in 14 games that the Saints have been favored. They are 6-2 SU in their last eight as a favorite, but
30. New York Giants (2-9) – I don’t think there is any question that Jaxson Dart should sit until the final week or two of the season. He has been evaluated for a concussion four times this year. Four! He could end up in Tua territory if he’s not careful. The Giants should’ve seen enough to know that Dart will be their starter heading into next year. Now it is about keeping him healthy and developing the mental parts of his game.
31. New York Jets (2-8) – I will give the Jets credit: they have an identity. They aren’t any good. But they are committed to the grind. They kind of remind me of a college football team that runs the option, which makes them kind of a sneaky underdog. New York has beat the closing line in four of its last five games and they have only lost by more than 13 points twice this year (and not since Week 5).
32. Tennessee Titans (1-9) – The Titans have now covered the spread in back-to-back games and they have a nice situational advantage here catching Seattle in a letdown spot. Since 2010 there have been six meetings between the Seahawks and Titans. None of them have been decided by more than a touchdown and the average margin of victory is just 3.8.
Robert Ferringo has posted seven of 10 winning football seasons, including last year thanks to an astounding +10,660 football run last season. Robert banked nearly +40,000 in profit between 2010-2019 for a 10-year average profit of nearly +4,000. He has earned 11 of 16 overall winning years and 69 of 114 winning months while also going 23-9 with his football futures rated 5.0+ and earning 16 of 19 winning Super Bowls. He is a member of the Football Writers Association of America and he is set for another amazing football season.
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