2020 NFL Season Win Totals Predictions
With the XFL in full swing now, I thought this would be a great time to remind everyone that the NFL is a multi-billion dollar corporation that runs 24/7/365 even if there are no games being played. We are about a month out from the official start of free-agency and about two and a half months away from the NFL Draft. Now, is a great time to go over the available season win totals for every NFL team for the upcoming season. All juice is to the over unless otherwise stated.
Arizona Cardinals: "Over/Under" 6.5 Wins (-130): For all the hype surrounding the Cardinals coming into last season with a new head coach and a new shiny quarterback in Kyler Murray, the team failed to live up to even the lowest of expectations. They had just five wins and a tie but were blown out in many of the games they ended up losing. The bar is set a little higher this year as Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury have a year of experience under their belt, but we just don't see how they get to seven wins given the fact their defense will be worse and they are still reliant on an aging Larry Fitzgerald.
Atlanta Falcons: "Over/Under" 8 Wins (-115): The Falcons had an extremely weird season last year as they started out 1-7 before beating the Saints to get to 2-7. They finished the season with four straight wins to finish at 7-9, which could signal some sort of momentum heading into the offseason. They are still heavily reliant on Matt Ryan and Julio Jones to make plays, but the defense is the biggest concern once again as they didn't extend a qualifying offer to Vic Beasley. This number is right around where I expected it to be. However, with Dan Quinn still patrolling the sidelines, I'll take the under.
Baltimore Ravens: "Over/Under" 11 Wins (-115): What more can the Ravens do in the upcoming season besides winning the Super Bowl? The Ravens stormed through the regular season last year en route to a 14-2 record. This year they are tagged with a total of 11 wins, and we just think that's one win too low. We can see them finishing what they started and steamrolling the league once again en route an AFC title game appearance. Lamar Jackson will not be denied greatness. And with the majority of the roster remaining intact, we like the Ravens to go over this win total.
Buffalo Bills: "Over/Under" 8.5 Wins (-125): The Bills win total for the upcoming season is 8.5, with the juice towards the under. The Bills had a great season by all accounts last year, falling short in the playoffs when the game was there for the taking. They return the majority of their top-five defense, and they get a year more of experience from Josh Allen. The offense will be good again, as will the defense, and with the Patriots potentially being without Tom Brady, we'll take the Bills over this win total.
Carolina Panthers: "Over/Under" 6.5 Wins (-130): If the Panthers didn't have Christian McCaffrey in their lineup every week, they'd be among the worst teams in the league. The Panthers will roll into the 2020/21 season without Cam Newton and a new head coach. The play in an extremely tough division and just lost their best piece on the defensive side of the ball in Luke Kuechly. How are we supposed to trust an unknown QB to lead this team to seven wins? The juice is on the under for a reason. Take the under.
Chicago Bears: "Over/Under" 8 Wins (-130): The Bears were extremely mediocre last season, finishing 8-8 and showing no signs of taking the next step under Matt Nagy and Mitch Trubisky. This year they are lined at eight wins, and I believe the number is just right. Both Green Bay and Minnesota are the class of the NFC North. So, where will the Bears find nine wins? I don't see it happening, thus take the under.
Cincinnati Bengals: "Over/Under" 5.5 Wins (-150): The Bengals are on the clock for the upcoming 2020 NFL Draft, and all signs indicate that they will be taking Joe Burrow out of LSU. While this pick will pay dividends down the road, the Bengals won't have enough weapons around him to help him win ball games. The defense is a work in progress, and the Bengals will likely be in line for another high draft pick in a year from now. Take the under.
Cleveland Browns: "Over/Under" 8 Wins (-125): I'm sick and tired of hyping the Browns up before the start of the season only to watch them fall flat on their faces. This organization is a joke. And until the leaders on their roster start taking accountability for the losses and performance, we will continue to fade the Browns. Even when you think the Browns have the pieces to get back to the playoffs, they always find a way to lose.
Dallas Cowboys: "Over/Under" 9 Wins (-200): The Cowboys finally did the right thing in the offseason by letting Jason Garrett go and hiring Mike McCarthy. McCarthy's presence and game-planning should be enough to get the Cowboys to the postseason with the roster they have, which in turn would make sense to go over this win total of 9 wins. We know the juice is high, so if you can find 9.5 or 10 for better odds, that could be worth a look as well.
Denver Broncos: "Over/Under" 8 Wins (-125): The Broncos are juiced to the under for a number of reasons, including but not limited to the roster, the head coach, and every other thing you can think of surrounding a football team. They don't have an identity and will likely be relying on Drew Lock to take a massive leap forward in just his first full year as a starter. We don't see that happening. Take the under.
Detroit Lions: "Over/Under" 6.5 Wins (-150): Poor Matthew Stafford. For everything he's done for this organization from a leadership and statistical point of view, this team should repay him with some consistency. The only consistent thing from year to year is that they suck. And despite having the third overall pick in this year's NFL Draft, we just don't see them cracking seven wins this year. Take the under at plus-money.
Green Bay Packers: "Over/Under" 9.5 Wins (-130): Quite possibly the luckiest team on the planet last year, the Packers finished last year with a 7-1 record in games decided by one score. They were the second worst 13-3 team in DVOA history and a first-place finish in the NFC North means a tougher schedule. Rodgers is getting older and the defense still isn't very good. Take the under and enjoy the Packers finishing 9-7 and missing the playoffs.
Houston Texans: "Over/Under" 8.5 Wins (-115): So long as Bill O'Brien remains in charge of this football team, the Houston Texans will go nowhere. Despite having Watson and Hopkins to build off of on offense, and J.J Watt on defense, the Texans continuously disappoint on a yearly basis. They are better than the bad teams in this league but not as good as the good teams, therefore we see them as an 8-8 or 9-7 team. Take the under.
Jacksonville Jaguars: "Over/Under" 6.5 Wins (-115): Another franchise that's a massive disappointment. The Jaguars are not that far removed from an AFC Title game, but the roster change over makes this win total look really high for a team as inconsistent as the Jags. I'd go under this total if I was betting it.
Kansas City Chiefs: "Over/Under" 11.5 Wins (-115): The Chiefs are going to be one of the best teams in the league once again. They have a better chance of winning 12 games than they do 11. And with a fully returned roster intact and Mahomes healthy, 12 wins and an AFC West title is once again on the cards.
Las Vegas Raiders: "Over/Under" 7 Wins (-115): The Raiders showed signs of life last season but ultimately collapsed late in the season. They have some good pieces but simply can't get out of their own way. Now they have to deal with a new stadium and fan base and all the pressures that come with that. This could be a down year for the Raiders, but I think 7-9 or 8-8 is possible. Take the over and worst-case scenario is a push.
Los Angeles Chargers: "Over/Under" 7.5 Wins (-130): The Chargers are going to be without Philip Rivers for the first time in an eternity, and most would think that life after Rivers would be all doom and gloom. If they manage to sign Brady, this win total will shoot up, so we suggest acting early on this one. Even without Brady as a possible QB, they finished 2-9 in games decided by one possession. Sooner or later, that's got to change and with a roster loaded with young or prime-age talent on both sides of the ball, the Chargers should be able to hit the eight-win mark.
Los Angeles Rams: "Over/Under" 8.5 Wins (-140): The Rams are due for a bounce-back year, and Vegas thinks it's coming. The juice is high on the over 8.5 wins because both sides of the ball are littered with talent, that is just a matter of executing better. I think Sean McVay will be focused this year and will game-plan around Goff's strengths to help the team win ball games. Take the over.
Miami Dolphins: "Over/Under" 5.5 Wins (-150): The Dolphins had an opportunity to draft first in the upcoming NFL Draft but blew that by winning meaningless football games. That means they are stuck with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, and we don't believe that's a good thing. This roster is void of any real talent, so another five-win season could be on the cards. Take the under.
Minnesota Vikings: "Over/Under" 9.5 Wins (-130): Kirk Cousins showed us last year that he can, in fact, win big football games - with the exception of the game against SF. The pieces are there for the Vikings to build with, and the defense remains one of the elite units in the entire league. I expect the Packers to take a step back and the Bears to continue their mediocrity, so the Vikings will get to 10 wins and claim the division.
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New England Patriots: "Over/Under" 10.5 Wins (-115): Will he or won't he? That's the question Patriots fans are asking about Tom Brady's possible return to New England. With Brady, the Patriots will win 11 games despite many flaws on offense. However, without him, they could be looking at a sub-500 record. I don't know if Tom's coming back to New England or not, so pass on this one.
New Orleans Saints: "Over/Under" 10 Wins (-130): The Saints lost another heartbreaking playoff game last season. What do they have for an encore? Well, if Drew Brees retires, they may not crack the double-digit win mark, but I think he's coming back. The offense is good, and the defense is getting better with each passing year. Give me the Saints to run away with the NFC South once again this season.
New York Giants: "Over/Under" 6.5 Wins (-130): The Giants are officially done with Eli Manning as a quarterback, and good thing because Daniel Jones is starting to look like a real NFL quarterback. The Giants need to stay healthy for the entire season if they want a chance to compete in the division, and they'll need to get better on defense. I'd side with the over here despite the juice point towards the under.
New York Jets: "Over/Under" 6.5 Wins (-150): The Jets are a terrible football team. And until otherwise noted, they will continue to be a fade for me. Sam Darnold has shown flashes, but the rest of the team isn't anything to write home about. I'd take them under the number, and the juice tells you why.
Philadelphia Eagles: "Over/Under" 10 Wins (-115): The Eagles were the beneficiary of playing in a terrible division last year to sneak into the playoffs. They could have beat Seattle, but Wentz went down injured (again). The health of the entire team is a concern as they seem to always find a way to be without half of their roster. I'd take the under based on other teams getting better and the Eagles doing nothing.
Pittsburgh Steelers: "Over/Under" 9 Wins (-130): The question you have to ask yourself with the Steelers is if they can they stay healthy for the entire season. We all know Big Ben missed almost the entire season and will be back to start the upcoming season, but can Juju and Conner stay healthy for all 16 games? They have the defense to contend in the AFC, but the offense leaves a lot to be desired. Based on their division, I'll take a shot with the over as they should win three of four games between the Bengals and Browns.
San Francisco 49ers: "Over/Under" 10.5 Wins (-130): The only thing stopping the 49ers from posting another 11-win season is the Super Bowl hangover. We saw how bad it affected Atlanta, Philadelphia and Los Angeles over the last three seasons, so the 49er's biggest enemy is themselves. They have the team to contend once again this year, but we do believe the NFC West is going to be one of the best divisions in football again. This number is tough, but I'd lean to the under based on expected regression.
Seattle Seahawks: "Over/Under" 9 Wins (-125): Oh, what could have been for the Seahawks. They were about two inches away from capturing the NFC West and setting themselves up with home field throughout the playoffs. Instead, they had to go on the road to GB where they lost a close one. The defense needs to be better and the offense needs to be more consistent. We think this number is spot on (juiced to the under), but we'll give Russell Wilson the benefit of the doubt and go over the total.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: "Over/Under" 7.5 Wins (-115): The Buccaneers are one of the best teams to watch in the entire NFL if you love scoring, crazy plays and mistake-filled football. Jameis Winston figures to be back under center for the Bucs, and so with their offense and top-ranked run defense, how could you not like the Bucs to finish at 8-8 this coming season. Take the over.
Tennessee Titans: "Over/Under" 8.5 Wins (-130): The Titans are juiced to the under in this year's win total, but they won nine games in each Mike Vrabel's first two campaigns and went 7-3 with Ryan Tannehill under center. Now they are pegged at 8.5 wins, but we believe there is enough juice on this roster (on both sides of the ball) to compete in the AFC South and find themselves at around nine or 10 wins and potentially in the playoffs once again. Take the over.
Washington Redskins: "Over/Under" 5.5 Wins (-150): The Washington Redskins continue to be a mess of an organization, but I like them to go over the win total in the upcoming year. They definitely have something to build off of with Dwayne Haskins experiencing live NFL football last season. They also have the second overall pick in the upcoming draft, so I expect them to fill a very big positional need. They won just three games last year but were competitive in most of them. Let's go over the win total.
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