2024 NFL Season Win Totals Predictions
I want to know which goes by faster in the NFL, the first half of the season or the second half. For me, the first 9 weeks of the 2024 regular season have actually dragged on. All sunshine and rainbows aren't reality, and too much of a grind can leave anyone feeling dull. This season has been a nice mix of both for most NFL teams.
The Detroit Lions look like the most dominant team in the league right now. However, losing their best defensive lineman, Aidan Hutchinson, will continue to be a strain on the defense. The start of the season was a grind on the Atlanta Falcons as Kirk Cousins returned from injury, but they fought hard through close games and now are massive betting favorites at 18-1 to win the AFC South! You can't help but feel bad for the Tampa Bay Bucs, though, especially after losing that heartbreaker to the Chiefs on Monday night.
Speaking of KC, they are still undefeated. I really despise this phrase, but "It must be nice" being a Chiefs fan. They seem to do all the right things. We'll see how Patrick Mahomes' left ankle holds up down the stretch.
Today, we have our halfway mark updated win total best bets. I was hoping to pinpoint which of the league's worst teams will be packing it in early and, sooner than later, potentially begin to tank games. Unfortunately, though, we still have 9 NFL teams with only 2 wins. Maybe we touch on some of those teams, but I think it's wise to wait a couple more weeks for the basement lights to turn on. I’m sorry Cowboy fans, but the win total odds for your team have been taken down due to the upcoming injury update on Dak Prescott.
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Updated NFL Win Total Best Bets
San Francisco 49ers Over 9.5 Wins: -115
We’re getting the San Francisco 49ers in a buy-low spot here, off of a bye week, and Christian McCaffrey could return this week. They play in Tampa, which is quite the trip, but with the Bucs traveling home from Kansas City and licking their wounds on a short week, I like the Niners to take care of business.
Currently sitting at 4-4, San Francisco needs to go 6-3 in order to hit this over bet. It's a wonder the Niners aren't above .500, but they're the only team in the NFC West with a positive point differential. They have revenge games against the Rams and Cardinals that I like them to win. Home games opposite the Bears and Seahawks are both very winnable. Let's give them 3 out of those 4. Back-to-back road games in Green Bay and then Buffalo sound like a nightmare. Maybe we split those two. What's left other than hosting the Lions on December 30th? A long trip to Miami. The eastward trips are brutal, but for nearly even money, I'll buy low on a balanced, well-coached, highly talented team that'll be hungry from here on out.
49ers Over 9.5 Wins
Los Angeles Rams Over 8.5 Wins: -130
The LA Rams are also 4-4, sitting alongside San Francisco in second place in the NFC West. Not unlike the Niners, we're getting a squad better than their current record. We've already seen the impact the return of Cooper Kupp and Puca Nakua has had on this team. The defense is even getting after it now. They beat the Niners and the Vikings. They took the Lions to overtime. This is a good team, and (-130) isn't a lot to pay for them to go 5-4 the rest of the way.
Their remaining schedule isn’t too bad. They host Arizona in a revenge spot. Maybe they can win one of two home games against the Eagles and Bills. Taking care of business on the road against the Pats and Saints will be paramount. That’s maybe four wins. I like them against Miami as 2.5-point home favorites this week. If that doesn’t get us there, the Rams have one more road game against the Jets. This team is built to beat anyone. Give me the Rams to go over their updated win total.
Pick: Rams Over 8.5 Wins
Cincinnati Bengals Under 8.5 Wins: +100
I just saw where the Bengals traded for Khalil Herbert to jump in the rotation with Chase Brown after they lost running back Zach Moss to injury. Herbert has only carried the ball 8 times this season. However, he averaged over 5 yards a carry for the Bears over the previous two seasons. They needed this, but it's on the defensive side of the ball where the Bengals continue to disappoint.
Their results thus far aren't good, but they've been the Dallas Cowboys of old. They beat the bad teams and lost to the best. Their 4 wins are all over 2-win teams. It's a shame, too. Joe Burrow's having the best year of his already illustrious career. Maybe adding the new running back will provide a spark. However, changes at the running back position don't move the needle like they used to.
Cincy is currently (+220) on the moneyline to beat the Ravens. I love how they match up, and the 6-point spread is tempting. If they lose, though, the Bengals would need to win 5 of their final 7 games in order to finish 9-8. Their schedule isn't the most difficult, but road games in Dallas and against the Chargers are two totally different types of tests. Cincy still plays the Steelers twice, and Denver is no pushover either.
Pick: Bengals Under 8.5 Wins
Washington Commanders Under 11.5 Wins: +100
Okay, I think we have found our sell-high spot of the week. I'm a local and love this team. However, the strength of their schedule flips as we enter the second half of the regular season. I like the Steelers to beat them this week, and they'll likely split the four rivalry games against Philly and Dallas. That's three losses, and the Falcons will probably play tough as well. If they beat Pittsburgh this week, I wouldn't bet against them, but we have an opportunity here to get a team with a preseason win total of 6.5 to go under 11.5 at even money.
Seattle Seahawks Under 7.5 Wins: +100
We would need the Seahawks to go 4-4 with a brutal schedule in order to get to 8 wins. I’ll spare you the specifics, but it’s ugly. This is a buy-high spot for Seattle, but you’ll see that every under is plus money. I like how we have followed the pricing.
Maybe take them to catch a few backdoor covers, but this one may be our best of the best bets.
Pick: Seahawks Under 7.5 Wins
Updated NFL Win Total Betting Odds
Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals
Over 11.5 Wins: -145 Over 8.5 Wins: -120
Under 11.5 Wins: +115 Under 8.5 Wins: +100
Atlanta Falcons Carolina Panthers
Over 10.5 Wins: -145 Over 3.5 Wins: -145
Under 10.5 Wins: -115 Under 3.5 Wins: +115
Buffalo Bills New York Giants
Over 12.5 Wins: -175 Over 4.5 Wins: -175
Under 12.5 Wins: +145 Under 4.5 Wins: +145
Kansas City Chiefs Chicago Bears
Over 14.5 Wins: -140 Over 7.5 Wins: -130
Under 14.5 Wins: +110 Under 7.5 Wins: +100
Minnesota Vikings Denver Broncos
Over 10.5 Wins: -160 Over 7.5 Wins: -190
Under 10.5 Wins: +140 Under 7.5 Wins: +150
Washington Commanders Indianapolis Colts
Over 11.5 Wins: -130 Over 7.5 Wins: -160
Under 11.5 Wins: +100 Under 7.5 Wins: +130
Philadelphia Eagles Jacksonville Jaguars
Over 11.5 Wins: -145 Over 5.5 Wins: -130
Under 11.5 Wins: +115 Under 5.5 Wins: +100
Pittsburgh Steelers New England Patriots
Over 9.5 Wins: -160 Over 4.5 Wins: -175
Under 9.5 Wins: +130 Under 4.5 Wins: +145
San Francisco 49ers New Orleans Saints
Over 9.5 Wins: -115 Over 5.5 Wins: -145
Under 9.5 Wins: -115 Under 5.5 Wins: -115
Green Bay Packers Tampa Bay Bucs
Over 10.5 Wins:-115 Over 8.5 Wins: -130
Under 10.5 Wins: -115 Under 8.5 Wins: +100
Arizona Cardinals Tennessee Titans
Over 9.5 Wins: -145 Over 4.5 Wins: -130
Under 9.5 Wins: +115 Under 4.5 Wins: +100
Los Angeles Rams New York Jets
Over 8.5 Wins: -130 Over 7.5 Wins: -145
Under 8.5 Wins: +100 Under 7.5 Wins: +115
Detroit Lions Miami Dolphins
Over 12.5 Wins: -175 Over 6.5 Wins: -145
Under 12.5 Wins: +145 Under 6.5 Wins: +115
Houston Texans Cleveland Browns
Over 10.5 Wins: -145 Over 4.5 Wins: -115
Under 10.5 Wins: +115 Under 4.5 Wins: -115
Las Vegas Raiders
Over 4.5 Wins: -175
Under 4.5 Wins: +145
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