NFL Season Win Totals Predictions
We are less than two weeks away from the NFL Draft, and sportsbooks have decided now would be a great time to drop season win totals for the upcoming NFL season. To that, I say “thank you”. This gives us something to break down for the next two weeks and then come out the draft with some sort of indication on how a team stacks up now vs. their adjusted win total post-draft. I’m excited to get the football content started, so let’s jump right into it.
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All lines are juiced to the over.
Arizona Cardinals: “Over/Under” 8 Wins (-110): The additions the Cardinals made in the offseason are impressive. They added defensive stability and offensive weapons. Can they get out of their own way, though? That’s the question. I’m banking on Kyler Murray taking a major leap forward and the Cards getting to nine or 10 wins. OVER.
Atlanta Falcons: “Over/Under” 7 Wins (-145): Since collapsing in the Super Bowl, the Falcons have been a piss poor team. They have the talent level on offense to hang with the big boys, but the defense has let them down time and time again. The extra game might help them get to eight wins. However, with a difficult schedule, I’d rather watch then get any action in on it. UNDER.
Baltimore Ravens: “Over/Under” 11 Wins (-125): The enigma that is the Baltimore Ravens. They return almost everyone worth noting on offense, and the defense should take a step forward this year. However, they won 11 games last year facing the easiest schedule and now get tasked with facing the second toughest this year. Hard to win 12 games in a division that’s as competitive as the AFC North is. UNDER.
Buffalo Bills: “Over/Under” 10.5 Wins (-110): The Bills finished last season with a 13-3 record only to be done in by Kansas City in the playoffs. The Bills added some solid pieces to the offense. And barring any long-term injuries, they should be one of the top offensive units in the NFL for the second year running. The Bills will need to hope the defense returns to top form. And if it does, perhaps a second straight trip to the AFC title game is in the cards. OVER.
Carolina Panthers: “Over/Under” 7.5 Wins (-110): Sam Darnold and Christian McCaffrey. Those are the two big acquisitions for the Panthers, and it should help them win a few close ball games. With the Saints lacking a QB and the Falcons struggling, the Panthers could possibly take a step and be the second-best team in the division. OVER.
Chicago Bears: “Over/Under” 7 Wins (-120): Andy Dalton. That’s all I really need to say. He was somewhat serviceable in Dallas, but his best years (if you can call them that) are far behind him. The Bears’ offense will be bad, and the defense will need to play at a miraculous level to keep them competitive in ball games. UNDER.
Cincinnati Bengals: “Over/Under” 6.5 Wins (-110): While it wasn’t the Super Bowl, the impact Joe Burrow had in his first season in Cincinnati was stellar. The team was growing and starting to gain some confidence. Until an injury derailed the season. If he’s back in Week 1, the Bengals should be competitive in most games. Not sure where seven wins come from, but I’ll take a shot with Burrow. OVER.
Cleveland Browns: “Over/Under” 9.5 Wins (-150): It seems to me that these aren’t your parent’s Browns. They won 11 games last year despite going through the COVID nonsense and losing OBJ for the season. The Browns bolstered up the defense this season and should be extremely competitive in the AFC North. OVER.
Dallas Cowboys: “Over/Under” 9.5 Wins (+110): The Cowboys simply can’t have the injury luck they had last season when they were without several key players for extended periods of time. That being said, a bounce-back season should be on the horizon, but the defensive is going to have to improve drastically. Can it happen, sure? I’ll go OVER just based on the price.
Denver Broncos: “Over/Under” 7.5 Wins (-110): UNDER. They are starting Drew Lock at QB, and their best receiver is coming back from an ACL injury. The offensive output was putrid this year. And in a division with high-scoring teams like the Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders, 0-6 is a very real possibility.
Detroit Lions: “Over/Under” 5 Wins (-110): Jared Goff is a downgrade from Matthew Stafford. The Lions also have a rookie coach. How do they get to six wins? They likely go 1-5 in the division and headed for a very high pick in next year’s draft.
Green Bay Packers: “Over/Under” 10.5 Wins (-145): The Packers went 13-3 last season, and they return the exact same team this year for one more kick at the can. I don’t see how they don’t win the NFC North, and with that comes another 12- or 13-win season. OVER.
Houston Texans: “Over/Under” 4.5 Wins (-125): If there is a bigger joke of a franchise in pro sports, I haven’t come across it yet in the last handful of years. The Texans let Bill O’Brien bury them with stupid trades, and they sucked. Now they will likely be without Deshaun Watson (their best player), and they will stink even more. UNDER.
Indianapolis Colts: “Over/Under” 10 Wins (+125): Each year the Colts surprise the masses and finish with double-digit wins. This year, I don’t know if they got any better or worse than last year’s team that made the playoffs. They have a very tough division this year, and the out-of-division schedule is not the easiest. I’ll take a shot with the UNDER.
Jacksonville Jaguars: “Over/Under” 6.5 Wins (-110): Urban Meyer. Trevor Lawrence. Still not enough to get the Jags to seven wins. The roster did some upgrading on the defensive side of the ball, but the offense will go through growing pains. Tough division and tough road games this year. Look for a 6-11 type season. UNDER.
Kansas City Chiefs: “Over/Under” 12 Wins (-110): The Chiefs are going to be a good team once again this year. The division they play in has improved a bit, but they are still the cream of the crop. The Chiefs should have no issues getting to 13 wins once again behind a pissed-off Mahomes and Co. Super Bowl bound? Probably. OVER.
Las Vegas Raiders: “Over/Under” 7.5 Wins (-110): Until the Raiders show me that they won’t shoot themselves in the foot, I’ll always be pessimistic about their chances. The extra game this season will help their bid to get to eight wins, but it’s still a long road ahead for them to get in the playoff mix. UNDER.
Los Angeles Chargers: “Over/Under” 9 Wins (+105): If any team is going to shift the balance of power in the AFC West, it’s the Chargers. They have a legit QB, a receiving corps that’s impressive, and one of the more underrated running backs in the league. The defense will be good this season, and I’m banking on a wild-card spot for them. OVER.
Los Angeles Rams: “Over/Under” 10.5 Wins (+125): The Rams upgraded their QB by acquiring Matthew Stafford from the Lions. That’s going to help their cause ten-fold. The defense is still going to be solid. And with that, I think they get to 11 wins. OVER.
Miami Dolphins: “Over/Under” 9 Wins (-120): Things are starting to finally look up in Miami. The Dolphins finished last year with 10 wins, and that was with starting more rookies than any other team in the league. The Dolphins added Will Fuller to make the offense more explosive. And if he stays healthy, it’ll be a great addition. The strength of this team is the defense as they were No. 5 in the NFL last year, and they return essentially all starters. Look for the Dolphins to go OVER the total.
Minnesota Vikings: “Over/Under” 8.5 Wins (-110): The Vikings are an enigma. They have the weapons needed to contend with the big boys but seemingly fail every year. They added good pieces on defense to combat the Packers, but I don’t see them getting to nine wins even with the added game. UNDER.
New England Patriots: “Over/Under” 9 Wins (-145): I was down on the Patriots last season, and I’ll be down on them again this year. The Patriots have very little talent to work with despite the additions of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Cam Newton is still a major question mark, and I’ll bank on him not being able to go 4-0 against the Bills and Dolphins. UNDER.
New Orleans Saints: “Over/Under” 9 Wins (-110): Solid head coach? Check. Solid weapons on offense? Check. Good quarterback? Nope. The Saints will feel the effects of losing Drew Brees early in the season as Winston and Hill are just not good enough right now to lead a team. Give me the UNDER on their win total.
New York Giants: “Over/Under” 7 Wins (-110): The Giants season was effectively lost when they lost Saquon Barkley for the season. He’ll be back in the lineup to start the season, and the addition of Kenny Golladay from the Lions really helps. The Giants have a solid enough defense to stay in ball games, so well bank on them scoring enough points once in a while to get to seven wins.
New York Jets: “Over/Under” 6.5 Wins (+125): The Jets can’t possibly be as bad as they were last year when they went 2-14. They have a new coaching staff and will start a rookie quarterback when they draft one. There’s just simply not much to love about this team, and 0-6 or 1-5 in the division looks likely. UNDER.
Philadelphia Eagles: “Over/Under” 6.5 Wins (-150): Do you believe in Jalen Hurts? I don’t. And because of that, I’m going UNDER. The Eagles don’t exactly have any weapons worth nothing on offense, and the defense was mediocre at best last season. UNDER.
Pittsburgh Steelers: “Over/Under” 8.5 Wins (-125): I feel as if counting the Steelers out before the season even begins is a bad idea. However, they have an aging and oft-injured QB, they lost their running back, and the receiving corps is nothing but guys who run three-yard outs. The AFC North is going to be a good division. And unless Big Ben turns back the clock, the Steelers may miss the playoffs for the third time in four years.
San Francisco 49ers: “Over/Under” 10.5 Wins (+125): Much like the Cowboys, the 49ers had a season that was derailed by injuries. A healthy lineup is dangerous, but I just don’t see them progressing to 11 wins next year with each team in the division having gotten better. UNDER.
Seattle Seahawks: “Over/Under” 9.5 Wins (-110): Nobody ever knows what to expect from the Seahawks. They’ve won at least 10 games in six of the last seven seasons and finished with nine wins last year despite having no run game or offensive line. Could they get to 10 wins? Possibly, but it’ll be a sweat. OVER.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: “Over/Under” 11.5 Wins (-110): The Bucs return every single starter on offense and defense, and that’s impressive. With the Saints taking a step back, they likely won’t go 0-2 against them. Not to mention, Tom Brady has a year under his belt with a new system in Tampa. Expect a division title and a 13-win season.
Tennessee Titans: “Over/Under” 9.5 Wins (+125): The Titans are also another team that continues to surprise on a yearly basis. They’ve won at least nine games in each of the past four years. The offense remains largely unchanged, but the defense was a major liability last year. A few upgrades on that unit will help, and I believe it’s enough to win the division. OVER.
Washington Football Team: “Over/Under” 8 Wins (-110): Can you believe Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the starting QB for Washington this year? Who hasn’t that guy played for? Nonetheless, the Football Team has a very tough schedule, and even an extra game might not be enough to get them to nine wins. The defense is good, but the offense went missing at times last season. UNDER.
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