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2023 NFL Season Win Totals Predictions

by Matt Zitt - 5/16/2023

NFL season win totals predictions Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs

The whirlwind of NFL free agency, the draft and schedule release has come and gone faster than a Tyreek Hill touchdown. We are roughly four months away from the 2023 NFL season kicking off, but it is never too early to analyze win totals….or bet on them! We will give predictions below on which teams can hit their totals and which teams could fall short.

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AFC East

Buffalo Bills – Over/Under 10.5 – OVER

Despite the abundance of talent at the quarterback position in the AFC, Josh Allen is still the second-best quarterback behind Patrick Mahomes. All nine home games are winnable, and Stefon Diggs will have another huge year. Take the over.

Miami Dolphins – Over/Under 9.5 – UNDER

The Dolphins head into 2023 with the second hardest ranked schedule in the NFL, with the opposition’s win percentage from 2022 being .554. Tua’s health is also a major concern going forward with multiple concussions sustained last season. Add Aaron Rodgers to the division as well, and I am laying the under for the Dolphins in 2023.

New York Jets – Over/Under 9.5 – OVER

Can Aaron Rodgers return to MVP form after injuries last year or has he reached the beginning of the end? Either way, the Jets upgraded at the most important position, added weapons offensively, and have an elite defense. Take the over.

New England Patriots – Over/Under 7.5 – UNDER

I do not believe Mac Jones is the answer for New England. Bill O’Brien is a great offensive coordinator and might get more juice out of the young QB than we have seen so far, but the tough schedule will prove too much. New England fans will see 7 or less wins in 2023.

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals – Over/Under 11.5 – OVER

This offense is absolutely loaded with Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon and led by quarterback Joe Burrow. The Ravens, Chiefs and Bills are their toughest opponents in 2023. If they can split with Baltimore, this team should have no issues reaching 12 wins.

Baltimore Ravens – Over/Under 9.5 – OVER

It is put up or shut up for Lamar Jackson as he received his contract and the GM added more weapons around him. As long as the Ravens can stay healthy, this team should easily hit the over mark.

Cleveland Browns – Over/Under 8.5 – UNDER

Deshaun Watson looked awful last year, plain and simple. Can he find his old form from his Houston Texans days? That big of a question mark at the team’s most important position makes me think the Browns do not hit their total and could finish dead last in the division.

Pittsburgh Steelers – Over/Under 8.5 – OVER

Mike Tomlin does not have losing seasons. Whether T.J. Watt is injured, or he has a quarterback by the nickname of “Duck,” he just finds ways to win games. This is an easy over for me as they play a third-place schedule in 2023.

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars – Over/Under 9.5 – OVER

The Jags exceeded expectations in 2022, and Trevor Lawrence should improve once again with the addition of Calvin Ridley. Take the over in a weak division.

Tennessee Titans – Over/Under 7.5 – UNDER

The Titans look like they are in full rebuild, and questions surround quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Even with King Henry running the ball, I like the under for 2023.

Indianapolis Colts – Over/Under 6.5 – OVER

The Colt’s defense is good enough to keep them in games this year. Add in an offensive guru as a new head coach, and I think the Colts can hit the seven-win total.

Houston Texans – Over/Under 5.5 – UNDER

The Texans’ defense was atrocious last year, and I do not believe even C.J. Stroud can save them in year one. There are too many question marks at pretty much every important position. Take the under.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs – Over/Under 11.5 – OVER

Three names. Andy Reid. Patrick Mahomes. Travis Kelce. Injuries are the only thing that can derail this group. Take the over.

Los Angeles Chargers – Over/Under 9.5 – OVER

Justin Herbert will thrive with a healthy Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Add in an underrated defense, this team could give the Chiefs a run for their money in the AFC West. Take the over.

Denver Broncos – Over/Under 8.5 – OVER

Sean Payton is easily one of the NFL’s top offensive minds. If he can fix Russell Wilson, there is no telling how far this offense can go. I will lay my money with Payton and take the over.

Las Vegas Raiders – Over/Under 7.5 – UNDER

It can easily be debated if Jimmy Garoppolo is an upgrade over Derek Carr. However, this defense was one of the worst in the NFL, and there are significant question marks if the defensive unit can improve. Take the under

 

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles – Over/Under 10.5 – OVER

This offense is a juggernaut with Jalen Hurts leading the way. They also revamped the defense in the draft with a plethora of Georgia Bulldogs. Add in that the NFC has much weaker quarterback competition than the AFC, and it is a no brainer. Take the over.

Dallas Cowboys – Over/Under 9.5 – OVER

Quarterback Dak Prescott is good enough, along with this defense, to hit the 10-win mark in 2023. Dallas is coming off back-to-back 12-win seasons, and Prescott missed a portion of the year. Take the over.

New York Giants – Over/Under 8.5 – UNDER

After a solid 2022 season, I love the under total for the G-men to drop down to earth. Their nonconference schedule features Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen and Tua. Take the under.

Washington Commanders – Over/Under 7.5 – UNDER

The Commanders have a serious quarterback problem, and that is enough to put them under this total. Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke have left the team, and that leaves just Sam Howell. Under 7.5 it is.

NFC North

Detroit Lions – Over/Under 9.5 – UNDER

In my mind, the Lions are still the Lions. They were a fun group to watch last season, but I am not sold that they will be better than the Bears or Vikings. I will bet on history that the Lions find a way to hit the under.

Minnesota Vikings – Over/Under 8.5 – OVER

I think this team easily reaches 8-11 wins with Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Jordan Addison. No more Aaron Rodgers in this division should give Cousins more confidence. Take the over.

Chicago Bears – Over/Under 7.5 – OVER

Justin Fields is DYNAMIC, and I believe he will take massive strides in 2023. The Bears easily reach eight wins this upcoming season.

Green Bay Packers – Over/Under 7.5 – UNDER

I am not sold on quarterback Jordan Love to think he is the Packers next franchise guy. I have Green Bay finishing last in the division in 2023, so take the under.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints – Over/Under 9.5 – OVER

Another weak division and easier schedule compared to other NFC teams. Derek Carr is an upgrade over the elder Andy Dalton. Michael Thomas restructured his contract, Chris Olave will only get better, and the addition of Jamaal Williams to compliment Alvin Kamara should make this offense thrive. Take the over.

Atlanta Falcons – Over/Under 8.0 – UNDER

Drafting a running back in the first round cannot save this team from a losing record. They have added some decent pieces defensively, but there are too many questions surrounding the quarterback position. Take the under.

Carolina Panthers – Over/Under 7.5 – UNDER

There are not enough favorable matchups on the Panthers schedule to make me want to take the over with a rookie quarterback. Under 7.5 is the play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Over/Under 6.5 – OVER

There is too much talent offensively and defensively on this roster for the total to be set this low. Even with Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask at the helm, they are strong at wide receiver and running back. This team could make a run at double digit wins this year. Take the over.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers – Over/Under 11.5 – OVER

Even with the health of the quarterback position in question, this roster is absolutely loaded and one of the best in the entire NFL. Kyle Shanahan is a great coach, and Christian McCaffrey and company will get this squad over 11 wins.

Seattle Seahawks – Over/Under 8.5 – OVER

I loved adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba to an offense that features Kenneth Walker, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett. Not to mention Geno Smith looked great as Comeback Player of the Year. They won nine games in 2022 in a so-called “rebuilding year.” Give me the over.

Los Angeles Rams – Over/Under 7.5 – UNDER

The Rams went from one of the best rosters in all of football to one of the worst. Looking like a rebuild, not even a healthy Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp can save this team from a losing record. Take the under.

Arizona Cardinals – Over/Under 5.5 – UNDER

There are too many question marks with this team and a brand-new head coach. Kyler Murray’s late season injury last year should carry into 2023. In a division with the 49ers and Seahawks, I would bet on the under.   

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