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2019 NFL Season Win Totals Predictions


by - 4/8/2019

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes

The NFL season seems to have extended into an almost 12-month affair. It used to feel like we got a break after the draft and things didn't really start to heat up until the camps started rolling in August. But the love of the league only grows. And as a result, things seem to happen sooner and sooner each year. Case in point - NFL season win totals for next season have already been posted by SportsBetting.ag. It's the earliest I ever remember seeing these numbers. And a lot will obviously change between now and the regular season - the draft will have big impacts, and we haven't yet seen the end of the QB carousel. But season win totals are always fun and informative to look at, so we might as well take a first look now:

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New England Patriots (11): Surely, we are smart enough not to question anything about this team by now. Since 2006, the only time they have gone under this number was in 2009 when they went 10-6. Sure, their quarterback is ancient, Gronk is gone, and the whole thing about Greg Schiano being hired as defensive coordinator only to leave a couple of months later is odd. But they are what they are, and I'm not going to be the one to pick against them. Not a ton of value here, but the over sounds right.

Green Bay Packers (9.5): This team got a lot more interesting lately with the explosive article about the diva nature of Aaron Rodgers and the bizarrely broken relationship he had with Mike McCarthy. Now they have a new, young and raw coaching staff and a pile of baggage a mile deep. And they have had two straight very disappointing seasons. I am decidedly pessimistic here.

Oakland Raiders (6.5): They've added Antonio Brown. That should be good. But they are still coached by an egotistical, out-of-touch blowhard. That's less good. And they are coming off a four-win season and still have plenty of issues. They have three first rounders, so there is room for improvement. But I am not buying stock in this team. The under isn't packed with value, but the over isn't that attractive, either.

L.A. Rams (10.5): Any team that makes the Super Bowl and then gets humiliated is an automatic under at almost any number. No more reason to think about this number than that.

Kansas City Chiefs (10.5): This is a tough number. Patrick Mahomes isn't going to sneak up on anyone this year, and pressure will be unlike anything he has experienced. But he has not yet shown any indication that pressure is something that exists in his universe. The team isn't going away, but a lot of things went right for them last year. I am mostly positive, but this number is high enough that I can't get excited about the over.

Indianapolis Colts (9.5): The Colts won 10 games last year, which was a bit of a surprise. But Andrew Luck is a very good player, and the team has done a decent job of adding talent after years of struggles. The division should tighten up a bit this year, so wins are going to be tougher to come by. And while they have had a decent enough offseason, they have not made home run additions yet. This number is reasonable. Too reasonable to bet.

Chicago Bears (9.5): This team has gone through a serious turnaround. Last year they came into the season with a win total of just 5.5 games, but they won 12 games. That means they exceeded their posted total by 6.5 games. By that logic they should win 16 games this year. They won't, but their success was no fluke, and they are going to keep doing a lot of things right. I like the over here.

Cleveland Browns (9): Last year the Browns had a win total of just 5, but then Baker Mayfield happened. They went 7-8-1 last year, which felt like a bit of a miracle. And now they have OBJ. And Olivier Vernon. And Sheldon Richardson. And half a season of Kareem Hunt. Expectations are massive. And the division isn't feeling particularly dominant. It would be more fun if the Browns were good, so I lean to the over. I'm not sure that there is a ton of value here - but a large portion of the states of Ohio and Oklahoma would disagree.

New York Giants (6): Eli Manning. That's really all I need to say to justify my pessimism about this team. But I could also point to the inept offseason, the players they have lost, and the general lack of direction or competence around the team. I really, really hate where this team is right now, and I don't see any path to changing that in any hurry. Under. Easy under.

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