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Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 18: Basic Strategy Teasers

by Mike Allen - 1/2/2026

Best NFL teaser bets Week 18 Cam Ward Carolina Panthers

After an 8-0 run, our basic strategy teaser win streak has come to a close. Shout out to Matthew Stafford, my pick on Halloween at 12-1 odds to win the NFL MVP, for throwing 3 of his 8 interceptions of the season this past Monday night.

He went from a (-220) favorite to win the award to now a (+250) underdog to Drake Maye, who’s sitting firmly at (-350) to snatch that trophy in just his first full year as a starter. 

I mention this because we teased the Rams down to (-2.5), thinking they could get past an Atlanta Falcons team that has been eliminated from playoff contention for weeks.

One thing I’ve learned is that, yes, it’s important to have a basic strategy when placing these teaser bets because they can get out of hand pretty quickly. However, I think we’ve won more games outright, teasing underdogs up than we have trying to tease a betting favorite down under a field goal.

You may be wondering what I’m talking about.

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What is a Teaser?

A teaser is a type of parlay bet where you can add points to a point spread. In return, of course, the sportsbook adjusts your payout. As I alluded to a moment ago, parlays in general can get out of hand, but then teasers can be even worse, but fear less.

What is a Basic Strategy Teaser?

The basic strategy for teasers is quite simple and straightforward. You want to use only 6-point 2-leg teasers and tease not only to but through the key numbers of 3, 6, and 7. A key number is likely margin of victory.

There are no more likely point differentials in NFL games than 3, 6, and 7. To do this we look for betting favorites of (-7.5) to (-8.5) and tease them down 6 points under a field goal to favorites of (-1.5) to (-2.5).

For a betting underdog, we do the inverse and take them from (+1.5) to (+2.5) above a touchdown at  (+7.5) to (+8.5). 

Personally, I’ve had far more success teasing dogs up than favorites down. Another important factor is a small point total because your 6 points accounts for a higher percentage, thus giving you a better chance to win. 

Potential Week 18 NFL Teaser Games

Carolina Panthers (+2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) Total: 44

This game is for the NFC South Division title and many expect it to play out closely. That’s exactly what we’re looking for here if we want to tease the (+2.5) underdog Carolina Panthers up to (+8.5). 

Carolina has alternated wins and losses from week-to-week nearly all season long and the Tampa Bay Bucs, who many experts had in the top 3 of their power rankings as recently as Week 8, have now become a shell of themselves.

Baker Mayfield runs too hard and his shoulder is banged up. He’s as hard as a woodpecker’s nose and has no interest in milking anything. I don’t think they respect their coach any longer either, so it’s darn hard to back them right now. 

Green Bay Packers (+7.5) at Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) Total: 35.5

Yes, you read that correctly. With the injuries at the quarterback position for the Pack and the Vikings, while eliminated from the playoffs, well-coached and still playing hard, they’re sitting at (-7.5) over the visiting rival Green Bay Packers.

The Pack is locked into the 7-seed and this game means nothing more than much-needed rest. Teasing the Vikings down to (-1.5) makes sense here, especially considering the low point total of just 35.5. 

Cleveland Browns (+7.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) Total: 44.5

Two division rivals, state rivals, out of the playoffs, with opposite strengths and weaknesses, no thank you. This is an easy pass.

Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) Total: 46

The playoff implications here are funky. Depending on the winner of Saturday’s NFC West victor take all game between the red hot Niners and sizzling Seahawks, LA’s game could mean something or nothing.

Again, no thank you.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) and Carolina Panthers (+8.5): -120

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