NFL Week 7 Line Movements with Point Spread Analysis

by Jeremy Block - 10/21/2026

NFL Week 7 line movements Tanner McKee Philadelphia Eagles

For those who haven’t caught on yet, point spreads behave a lot like gas prices: one bad headline and the number you saw on Monday either tanks or skyrockets by Wednesday. Week 6 brought a pile of injuries, including a season-ending one, a benched quarterback and a few upsets, and Vegas has been raking it in.

All of that can change, though, with a few of my tips going into Week 7. Four spreads have moved the most since the early numbers came out, including a Monday night matchup where the favorite switched sides. Here’s what pushed each line and which side I like before kickoff.

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Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (Eagles -1 to Cowboys -4.5)

NFC rivalry games used to mean something, but considering how bad both teams have been, this isn’t an ideal Monday night matchup. Rough weeks don’t get much rougher than the past few Philadelphia has had. The Eagles lost 25-14 to Carolina in Week 6 without Jalen Hurts or Saquon Barkley, and then came word that blood clots in Hurts’ lungs have ended his season.

Under center now is backup Tanner McKee, which clearly forced Vegas to flip this spread from Philly -1 to Dallas -4.5. The Cowboys haven’t earned much trust after falling 23-13 in Green Bay. Still, a banged-up Eagles roster led by a backup quarterback is the bigger problem, and Dallas at -4.5 is my side.

New York Giants @ Houston Texans (Texans -7.5 to Texans -10)

Quarterback changes rarely happen at a convenient time, and the Giants made theirs in the middle of a blowout. Down 34-10 to New Orleans, they pulled Jameis Winston for J.J. McCarthy, and the late push still ended in a 34-27 loss.

Houston went the other direction, pulling off a big upset against Jacksonville 34-31 in London on a field goal as time expired. No matter the matchup, laying 10 points with a 2-4 team is a lot, and the Giants have covered in four of six games this season. Give me New York with the points.

Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders (Rams -6.5 to Rams -4.5)

The biggest upset of the season so far came out of SoFi Stadium last Sunday. Arizona beat the Rams 18-16 as 12.5-point underdogs without finding the end zone once, as Chad Ryland kicked six field goals, the last one as time expired.

The Raiders dropped one-score games to Kansas City and Buffalo during a three-game losing streak, and they still own the league’s best cover rate at 5-1 against the spread. I’ll take the Raiders at +4.5 at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints in Paris (Steelers -1.5 to Steelers -3.5)

Playing in Paris takes home-field advantage out of the equation for the Saints, which puts the focus squarely on recent performances. The Steelers seem to be on the up and up after they trailed Tampa Bay 16-3 heading into the fourth quarter, scored 16 straight to force overtime and won 26-19 in Week 6. Vegas rewarded the comeback by pushing this spread from Pittsburgh -1.5 all the way through the key number of 3.

There’s no doubt that laying the hook over a field goal in an international game is a bit sketchy, but the Steelers are 4-2 against the spread and New Orleans is 2-4 straight up. Pittsburgh is the better team on any field, and I’ll lay the 3.5 with them.

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Start:	October 21, 2026 @ 7:30 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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NFL Week 7 Line Movements with Point Spread Analysis

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