NFL Betting Predictions: Week 17 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 12/22/2025

NFL betting predictions Week 17 opening line report Bo Nix Denver Broncos

Staying ahead of the closing lines over the course of an NFL season is nearly an impossible task. The final spreads are incredibly sharp, but taking advantage of the opening lines can be a very effective strategy to stay on top. An extra point or two in your favor can go a long way and will often be the difference between winning and losing in the long run. Last week, we went 2-1 on our picks. The Bears (+3) and Jaguars (+3) both won outright, giving us a pair of covers to kick off the weekend. However, the Texans (-14) only managed to squeak by the Raiders 23-21, failing to cover the spread. Before we get into the crucial slate of Week 17 matchups, here are the biggest storylines from a season-defining slate of Week 16 games.

Seahawks on top: Seattle picked up a huge comeback win over the Rams to kick off Week 16. They were previously 0-172 when trailing by 14+ in the fourth quarter, but now sit on top of the NFC with a 12-3 record. Maybe Sam Darnold can turn up for big games?
Bears seize NFC North control: The division was on the line on Saturday night, but the Bears found a way to win over the Packers to take the top spot. They needed a late onside kick to pull off the comeback, as they had a 0.8% chance to win late in the fourth. Chicago is now one win away from their first division crown since 2018.
Is Burrow back? The trade speculation around Joe Burrow has never been hotter, and he showed up against the Dolphins in a 45-21 win with 309 yards and four touchdowns. The future of the Bengals is on a knife-edge, and it all starts with Burrow’s decision.
Broncos lose: The longest win streak in the NFL was snapped with the Jaguars' crucial win over Denver. Jacksonville and Houston now have the two longest win streaks in the NFL, with the AFC South still up for grabs.
Ford Field Fiasco: While the Lions losing, and the Steelers winning, both had serious ramifications for the postseason, a different headline took over at Ford Field. DK Metcalf punched a fan in the face, as the Steelers wideout follows in the footsteps of so many other Pittsburgh pass catchers.
Season-defining injuries: The Packers and Ravens were two Super Bowl favorites a couple of weeks ago, but with Jordan Love and Lamar Jackson hurt, it may be back to the drawing board. With Daniel Jones also down with injury, the NFL playoffs could feature as many as three teams with backups in the pocket.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Now that Week 16 is in the past, it is time to look ahead at the opening lines for Week 17. You must lock in these prices as soon as possible, as there is no guarantee these lines will be available when kickoff rolls around later this week. We aren’t necessarily targeting the games with the most playoff implications, as there is plenty of money to be made all over the Week 17 slate.

Game 1: Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers

Opening Line: Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)

The Houston Texans weren’t too impressive against the Raiders last week, but they still extended their league-leading seven-game win streak. The 0-3 start feels like a distant memory for Houston, as they are playing excellent football on both sides of the ball. Their dominant defense is what will carry them into the postseason, and that is the area we will target in this specific matchup. Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are not household names, but the stellar tackles for the Chargers have both been knocked out with season-ending injuries. The Chargers' struggling offensive line has kept Justin Herbert upright in recent weeks, but slowing down the Texans is a whole different story. Four of their last five games came against teams in the bottom-ten in terms of sacks this season, while the Texans are near the top of that list. An overvalued Chargers offensive line will be their downfall in this one, as Houston will cause chaos on defense all game long. Now that the Texans have CJ Stroud back from injury to slot in a relatively healthy offense, they are a real threat in the AFC. There are still too many flaws with the Chargers right now, which makes Houston in the slight underdog role the way to go.

Pick: Houston Texans (+1.5)

Game 2: New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans

Opening Line: New Orleans Saints (-3)

The Saints took care of business against the Jets last week, but this is a very different matchup in Week 17. First of all, the Saints were favored by four points, but they were at home in that matchup. The Titans are much better than the Jets on offense and will be capable of keeping this one close, if not pulling off the outright upset. The issue of tanking will come into play, but the reality is that the players and coaches are playing for their careers and want to win no matter what. It is hard to say the Titans have looked great in recent weeks, but with the spread at a key number for the home team, we will take the points in this matchup.

Tennessee just took down the Chiefs for its first home win of the season last week, and looked good on both sides of the ball. They got the stops they needed to pull away, held the Chiefs to 1/9 on third down, and got a few bounces in their direction on special teams. While another three-score win is unlikely, the Titans have what it takes to beat the Saints for a rare set of back-to-back home wins. Cam Ward’s development is the primary target for the franchise, and the Saints are not the most intimidating defensive front. Taking the home underdog by a crucial number is never a bad thing, especially when being asked to lay points with the Saints on the road.

Pick: Tennessee Titans (+3)

Game 3: Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals

Opening Line: Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

The Bengals are coming off a feel-good win over the free-falling Dolphins last week, and will look to keep that momentum going in Week 17. Cincinnati doesn’t have anything to play for this year, but with Joe Burrow suddenly grumbling about a potential trade, the Bengals need to prove that they can still contend heading into next season. Their offense is truly remarkable, but their downfall has been their play on the defensive side of the ball. They allowed a league-high 30.5 PPG with the third most yards allowed, and it is hard to say they are unlucky to be in that position. They rarely generate pressure, their secondary is a joke, and Trey Hendrickson is now out with an injury. While there isn’t a lot to like about Arizona either, the reality is that the Cardinals should have won last week, and shouldn’t be a big underdog here. The Cardinals went 0/2 in the red zone and hit just 4/6 field goals against the Falcons last week. They moved the ball well, they limited the turnovers, and Jacoby Brissett will have a good game in Cincinnati. Slowing down Joe Burrow and company will be a different task, but as long as the Cardinals keep this remotely close, the backdoor cover will always be a possibility. With a full touchdown being offered on the spread, scooping up the points with Arizona is the only logical choice.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals (+7)

Season Record: 24-23-1

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Start:	December 22, 2025 @ 8:15 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 17 Opening Line Report and Picks

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