NFL Betting Predictions: Divisional Round Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 1/13/2026

NFL betting predictions divisional round opening line report Bo Nix Denver Broncos

Staying ahead of the NFL spreads is a tough task, but the job gets a bit easier when you can take advantage of the opening lines. The odds for all four divisional matchups have been released early in the week, and securing an extra point or two of value can be the difference between winning and losing in the long run. Last week, we went 2-1 on our picks, moving back to 28-28-1 on the season. The Jacksonville Jaguars were unable to cover the +1.5 point spread (they closed at -2), but we got two relatively sweat-free winners with the 49ers (+4.5) and Patriots (-3.5). Before we get into the picks for this week, here are the biggest storylines from a truly baffling Wild Card Weekend.

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Rams survive in Carolina: It wasn’t pretty, but the Los Angeles Rams edged the Carolina Panthers 34-31 to kick off Wild Card Weekend. Matthew Stafford threw for 304 yards with three touchdowns, as his connection with Puka Nacua carried the Rams to a win.
Miracle in Chicago: The Bears did it again. After pulling off a stunning comeback against Green Bay to seal the NFC North in the regular season, Chicago did it again in the playoffs. Miscues led to a 21-3 first-half deficit, before Chicago scored 25 fourth-quarter points to storm back for a 31-27 victory. The countless last-minute comebacks for Chicago have given Bears fans their best season in recent memory.
Is Josh Allen human? The Bills arguably have the worst roster of Josh Allen’s tenure in Buffalo, yet Allen found a way to win in Jacksonville. With his usual rivals already eliminated, is this the year the Bills can finally reach the Super Bowl?
Trouble in paradise? The Philadelphia Eagles won the Super Bowl 11 months ago, but that feels like a distant memory after their loss to the 49ers. The reigning champions were booed off the field in the first quarter, as the 49ers pulled off the upset of the weekend at Philly’s expense.
MayeVP: Drake Maye was responsible with the football in the Patriots' win over the Chargers, allowing his defense to make big plays while his offense converted their limited chances. The MVP award is still up for debate, but that is at the back of Maye’s mind as his primary focus is sustained playoff success.
Best defense in football: Houston flexed their defensive muscles in their 30-6 win over the Steelers, ending Aaron Rodgers’ career with a game-sealing pick-six. Their offense looked lackluster for the first 50 minutes of the game, but two defensive scores for Houston made that a moot point.

The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is here. This is often the best weekend of football all season long, and this year’s fresh matchups make it even sweeter. The hefty spread between the 49ers and Seahawks is too close to call, leaving us with three other games to break down this weekend. Make sure you get these picks in immediately, as there is no guarantee these lines will be available when kickoff rolls around this weekend.

Game 1: Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos

Opening Line: Buffalo Bills (-1)

The Denver Broncos secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC in Week 18 with a win. They are fully rested after enjoying their bye week last week, yet they are home underdogs against the Bills. Josh Allen is a difficult man to fade in the playoffs, but dominating a daunting Denver defense will be an impossible task. Allen has struggled against the AFC’s best defenses this season, and he will find it difficult to put up 20+ points on the road in this matchup. The Broncos' pass rush is historically good, logging the fourth-most sacks all-time in the regular season. The Bills' offensive line is good, not great, which means Allen will be on the move more often than not. He will make a few jaw-dropping plays, but after hurting his knee and throwing hand in their win over the Jaguars, he will need to be at his very best if the Bills have any chance of moving to the AFC Championship game. For Denver, this game will come down to their offense. It is no secret that the Broncos have a stellar defense coached by Sean Payton, but their Super Bowl aspirations rest on the shoulders of Bo Nix. I was truthfully ready to fade the Broncos in the Divisional round, but a home underdog price tag makes them the only viable pick in this matchup. Nix has his flaws, but the Broncos roster is so much better than the Bills in every non-quarterback position. This will be a close game, but taking the points with the rested, well-rounded home team is the top play of the week.

Pick: Denver Broncos (+1)

Game 2: Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Opening Line: New England Patriots (-3)

This one was briefly at -2.5 last night, but even at -3, the Patriots are still an excellent pick. I expect this spread to close at 4 points or higher, making this a line that we want to scoop up as soon as possible. New England’s defense stepped up against the Chargers, exposing Los Angeles’s weak offensive line. The Texans are well-built in the trenches, but I still expect another dominant performance from the Patriots' defense. Their ability to drop into coverage and take away all the options allows them to confidently rush four and find success. Christian Gonzalez is the leader of this defense, but it has been a team effort that has gotten them this far. The Texans' offense looked horrendous against the Steelers, who are a much more average defense than their reputation suggests. CJ Stroud looked lost in the pocket, he made several bad decisions under pressure, and I simply don’t have any confidence we will see anything different this time around. The 30-6 scoreline over Pittsburgh is misleading, as Houston scored just 7 points before their defense found the end zone twice in the fourth quarter. Stroud and the Texans offense struggled for long stretches, and the Patriots defense has a great blueprint set out by Pittsburgh.

On the other side of the ball, we have an MVP candidate against the league’s best defense. Houston is in the playoffs thanks to their play on the defensive side of the ball, as the Texans' defense single-handedly outscored Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers. The pressure up front is enormous, while the Texans' secondary is more than capable enough to stick to man coverage in the middle of the field. Maye has done a great job of slicing teams apart, regardless of the coverage, and he will need to be at his very best to book his spot in the AFC Championship game. While fading this Houston defense isn’t ideal, this is a very soft line for New England at home. The Patriots' offense has been consistent all year long, and this isn’t the spot where they will suddenly fall asleep. New England will score 20+ without too much of a sweat, and I don’t trust CJ Stroud and the Texans to match that total.

Pick: New England Patriots (-3)

Game 3: Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears

Opening Line: Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)

The Rams looked vulnerable against the Panthers last week, but then again, so did the Bears against the Packers. Both of these teams have their flaws, but the Bears are the ones who manage to keep winning close games. Chicago has mounted several season-defining comebacks in a single campaign this year, as their offense never quits and their defense steps up when their backs are against the wall. It is going to be a frigid game at Soldier Field on Sunday, which plays right into the hands of the Bears.

Matthew Stafford will likely win the MVP award this season, but thriving in cold weather isn’t on his resume this year. Stafford has a 1-9 record in cold-weather games since joining the Rams, including a 0-2 record this season. He thrives in the dome in California, but the atmosphere couldn’t be further from that at Soldier Field. Any dropoff from Stafford will see the Rams fall apart, as their lack of a run game forces the ball into the hands of the future Hall of Famer. While this may feel like a short spread for the Super Bowl favorite, the reality is that the Bears are a nightmare matchup for Los Angeles. Chicago will be able to control the clock with a strong run game of their own, and have shown plenty of fight in the second halves this year. With a spread over a field goal for the home team, we will bite on another home underdog to close out this week’s slate.

Pick: Chicago Bears (+3.5)

Season Record: 28-28-1

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Start:	January 13, 2026 @ 11:00 PM
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NFL Betting Predictions: Divisional Round Opening Line Report and Picks

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