AFC Odds to Make the Super Bowl: Best Bets and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 1/7/2026

AFC odds to make the Super Bowl Bo Nix Denver Broncos

The Kansas City Chiefs have missed the playoffs this season, which means there will be new blood in the AFC championship game this season. Of the seven AFC playoff teams, five have +550 odds or shorter to win the conference, and it would be foolish to count the Chargers and Steelers out at this stage of the season. While any team could prevail, some sides offer far more value than others when looking at the AFC odds. Here are all seven AFC contenders broken down, with a value rating for each one heading into Wild Card Weekend.

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Denver Broncos +230

It hasn’t always been pretty in Denver, but the Broncos have had their most successful campaign of the last decade. Not only did they snap the Chiefs' nine-year AFC West winning streak, but they secured the top seed in the AFC and the valuable bye that goes with it. While Bo Nix’s impressive play in his sophomore season will determine how far this team can go in the playoffs, the reason they are where they are is the work on the defensive side of the ball. Denver has allowed the second-fewest yards and the third-fewest points in the NFL this season. Their defensive dominance has stemmed from their elite pass rush, which logged an incredible 68 sacks this season. That is more than double the total of six teams this season, and it will go down as the fifth-most sacks recorded by a team in NFL history. Nik Bonitto leads the way with 14 sacks, but it has been a real team effort with eight players logging at least 4 sacks this season. The Denver pass rush can get to any AFC quarterback in the playoffs, and an extra week of rest will have them that much fresher for the Divisional round.

It is always hard to count out this defense, especially with a coaching mastermind like Sean Payton at the helm. The reality is the Broncos were quite fortunate to finish with a 14-3 record. They had an 11-2 record in one-score games this season, and while the defense deserves plenty of credit for their play in clutch situations, it is hard to give the Broncos +230 AFC odds heading into the playoffs. Bo Nix still has plenty to prove, the Broncos receivers lack a go-to target in the red zone, and we would be talking about this side very differently if even one of those one-score wins were flipped. The +230 odds imply they will be -120 home favorites in their two games leading to the Super Bowl, which is probably a fair number for this team. Winning two home games is very possible, but with odds like these, there are better options on the board.

Value Rating: 3/5

New England Patriots +420

Drake Maye is an MVP candidate in his second season, the Patriots have a truly dominant secondary, and they will be at home for at least the first two playoff games in the AFC. There is a lot to like about this team, and it isn’t surprising to see them leading the way after the No. 1 seed Broncos. Drake Maye has been incredible this year for New England, finishing fourth in passing yards despite having the 12th most passing attempts this season. His efficiency in the pocket has given him a league-leading 72% completion percentage, as he almost always gives his receivers a chance to win the football. His poise in crucial moments has been remarkable, as he tucks the ball when needed, doesn’t force anything down the field, and will always live to fight another day when things go sideways. Young quarterbacks often try to do too much during blown-up plays, but Maye never looks flustered in the pocket. Once you pair his consistent play with a top-end run game, it is no surprise to see the Patriots offense ranked inside the top-five in all the major offensive categories.

On defense, New England is just as good. They allowed the fourth-fewest points per game this season, despite rarely generating pressure up front. They have the seventh-fewest sacks this year, instead thriving on blanketed coverage down the field. Christian Gonzalez has been their best player in the secondary, but Marcus Jones and Carlton Davis II deserve plenty of credit, too. It is quite the luxury to deploy man coverage and rarely get exposed down the field, which has allowed New England to stop the run by loading up the tackle box.
The Patriots over the Chargers is my lock of the Wild Card Round, so it shouldn’t be surprising to see me all over these +420 odds too. New England is the most well-rounded team in the conference; they have an MVP front-runner in the pocket and a truly elite defense on the other side of the ball. The fact that they will get to play all their games at home unless they meet the Broncos in the AFC championship round is a real bonus, too. At +420, there is tons of value here.

Value rating: 5/5

Houston Texans: +480

The Texans hit the road against the Steelers in the Wild Card round, before likely taking a trip to New England or Denver in the divisional round. Three road wins won’t be easy for Houston, and that is the biggest obstacle for them heading into the playoffs. They are sizable favorites against Pittsburgh, but will certainly be road underdogs for the rest of the postseason. That makes these +480 odds hard to justify. What Houston has done on the defensive side of the ball has been remarkable, but a lackluster offense will only get them so far. CJ Stroud has failed to live up to the hype built during his rookie year, and the Texans don’t have a consistent run game to bail him out. Defensive stops and the occasional pick-six aren’t enough to back Houston at this kind of price. They’ll be able to outwork Pittsburgh to kick off the playoffs, but the AFC is littered with defensive units that can go toe-to-toe with the Texans. Stroud might be the worst quarterback left in the AFC, and the Texans' offense is an easy fade at a price like this.

Value Rating: 1/5

Buffalo Bills: +500

Josh Allen and the Bills have been bounced from the playoffs by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs four times in the last five years. The Chiefs are already preparing for the 2026 NFL draft, giving the Bills a seemingly clear-cut path to the Super Bowl. The only problem? This is the worst Bills roster Josh Allen has had around him in the last five years. The Bills' offense used to be a balanced unit that could punish teams on the ground, while using star-studded receivers to expose teams down the field. While James Cook is a workhorse running back, the Bills still have an average ground game and lack a game-changing receiver. Khalil Shakir leads the way with 719 yards this season, with him and Kincaid the only two Bills with 500+ yards through the air. Josh Allen’s heroics have been able to keep this team afloat, but things get even worse when we look at the defensive side of the ball.

The Bills' pass defense continues to thrive, but that won’t matter when their abysmal run defense can’t get a stop. The AFC is littered with strong defenses that will look to take care of the football on offense. That means a heavy run script against the Bills, and I just don’t see them getting enough stops to keep Josh Allen on the field. Denver, Houston, New England, and Pittsburgh all have elite defenses that will follow that script, which spells disaster for the Bills. They won’t be able to take advantage of the fact that Mahomes is taking a year off, as it will be more heartbreak in Buffalo.

Value Rating: 2/5

Jacksonville Jaguars: +550

The Jaguars are on fire, having won nine straight to surge to the top of the AFC South. Jacksonville has been led by a consistent offense, as they have a very different roster compared to the rest of the AFC contenders. Trevor Lawrence has done an excellent job at spreading the ball on offense, but he can still call on Brian Thomas Jr. for a big play when he needs it most. The Jaguars have put up 27.9 PPG this season, with 36.4 PPG in their last five games. That includes a 34-20 drubbing against the Broncos and a 36-19 win over the Colts. Lawrence is finally showing the potential that he had from his time at Clemson, and plenty of credit has to go to head coach Liam Cohen and the job he has done.

On defense, Jacksonville has been excellent at stopping the run, which will allow them to go far in a run-heavy AFC. Their 85.6 rushing yards allowed per game are the league’s fewest by a significant margin, with an even more impressive 77.7 rushing yards allowed on the road. They will get exposed over the top once in a while, thanks to a limited pass rush, but they will find plenty of success by keeping teams behind the sticks more often than not.
They are surprising home underdogs against the Bills, and will likely have to go on the road against the Patriots in the second round of the playoffs. While that is a daunting task, I expect whoever wins a potential Patriots-Jaguars showdown will go on to win the AFC. These odds have plummeted in recent weeks, but there is still value with Jacksonville at this number.

Value Rating: 4/5

Los Angeles Chargers: +1200

Justin Herbert is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league. His ability to scramble out of the pocket and make accurate throws down the field is the only reason the Chargers are in the playoffs behind the league's worst offensive line. While the offensive linemen may not be household names, there is no denying the importance of the position for a deep playoff run. The AFC is littered with hungry pass rushes, and expecting Herbert to stay upright long enough to pull off several miracles is too much to ask. The Chargers will not win three straight road games, and even +1200 odds aren’t enough to entice me into taking a shot with a very talented quarterback. Their offensive line is 32nd in pass protection and 31st in run blocking this year. That is the only stat you need to know. Even heroic performances from their defense won’t be enough when the Chargers are forced into multiple third-and-long situations.

Value Rating: 1/5

Pittsburgh Steelers: +1700

The Steelers have snuck into the playoffs again, but are poised for another one-and-done season. Their once dominant defense is good, but not great, and it is hard to trust 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers to lead a playoff charge. However, there are several other teams in the AFC who will look to grind out defensive wins this year, and that could play right into Pittsburgh’s hands. The Steelers have been in their fair share of field position battles over the years, and it wouldn’t be crazy if they scrape together a couple of tight wins. While I won’t go all-in on the Steelers, even with a price like this, I think it is reasonable to say this is a fair set of odds for any team in the wide-open AFC.

Value Rating: 3/5

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Start:	January 9, 2026 @ 10:00 PM
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AFC Odds to Make the Super Bowl: Best Bets and Predictions

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