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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 16 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 12/16/2025

NFL betting predictions Week 16 opening line report Kenny Pickett Las Vegas Raiders

One of the most effective ways to make picks against the spread in the NFL is by targeting the opening lines. By securing a favorable price early in the week, you can maximize your chances of staying positive over the course of the season. While an extra point in your favor may feel inconsequential, that can be the difference between winning and losing in the long run. Last week, we went 1-2 on our picks, dropping our record back to 22-22-1 on the season. The Baltimore Ravens easily covered the -2.5 point spread in their shutout win over the Bengals, before the Tennessee Titans (+12.5) fell one point short of the cover in their 37-24 loss to the 49ers. It all came down to Sunday night, but the Cowboys fell short against the Vikings, all but eliminating them from playoff contention. Before we get into the Week 16 opening lines, here are the biggest storylines from Week 15 around the league. 

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  • The Chiefs are cooked: Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL late in the Chiefs' loss to the Chargers, as Kansas City has been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention with three weeks to go. Not only was this year a disaster, but there is no guarantee Mahomes will be ready for the start of next year. Ouch. 
  • Trouble in Green Bay: Losing on the road to the Broncos is nothing to be ashamed of, but the manner of the defeat, coupled with Micah Parsons’ season-ending injury, has left the Packers in a real pickle. 
  • Eagles make a statement: A win over the Raiders will not fix the Eagles' issues on both sides of the ball, but it really felt like the Eagles needed a big win. A 31-0 victory has them back in control of the NFC East, as the defending champions proved that they still have some gas left in the tank. 
  • Miracle in Foxborough: The Patriots held a 21-0 lead in the second quarter with a chance to clinch the AFC East with a victory over Buffalo. All of a sudden, five straight touchdown drives from Josh Allen and the Bills gave Buffalo the lead, and they never looked back. The Patriots are still in control of their own destiny, but that kind of defensive collapse cannot happen in the postseason. 
  • Who wants the NFC South? Carolina and Tampa Bay are both 7-7 after ugly losses against the Falcons and Saints in Week 15. The pair face off twice in the final three weeks of the season, with the worst division in football on the line. 
  • Grandpa Philip Rivers: After four years retired, Philip Rivers made his season debut for the Colts in Week 15. While a 120-yard stat line with one touchdown and one interception isn’t eye-popping, the Colts proved they aren’t dead yet. An 18-16 defeat against the high-flying Seahawks allowed Indianapolis to prove to themselves that they can still compete with Rivers in the pocket. 

 

Now that Week 15 is behind us, it is time to jump into the picks for Week 16. Make sure you lock these in immediately, as there is no guarantee these lines will be available when kick off rolls around later this week. 

Game 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers 

Opening Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
I had to double and triple-check this one. The Panthers are indeed full field goal underdogs, at home, between a pair of struggling 7-7 teams. Tampa Bay probably has the better roster compared to the Panthers, but this kind of line for the home team is simply unjustifiable. Mike Evans’ return to action gave the Buccaneers offense a lift, but injuries and poor form on defense will cost them a win and cover. The Falcons were able to use their backfield tandem of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to dominate the Buccaneers last week, and they have laid out a stellar game plan for their division rivals to do the same. Carolina has one of the most consistent run offenses in the league, their defense has been able to bend and not break, and they have the benefit of playing at home. Bryce Young still leaves plenty to be desired, but the reality is that the Panthers have refused to roll over this season, and they have a real shot at winning the division if they can take care of business at home. This will be a very close game that could turn into a slog, which makes the free field goal that much more valuable with the Panthers. I guarantee that this line will dip to -2.5 or shorter before kick off, making it crucial we scoop up the full three points on offer with Carolina. 

Pick: Carolina Panthers (+3)

Game 2: Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos 

Opening Line: Denver Broncos (-3)

The Broncos have won 11 consecutive games since starting 1-2 on the season, which makes it difficult to criticize their play on either side of the ball. However, their offense is still inconsistent, looking great one drive before falling apart the next. They needed a late comeback to edge the Packers last week, which may not have happened if Micah Parsons hadn’t gone down with an injury. They now host a red-hot Jaguars team on a five-game win streak. Not only are the Jaguars winning, but four of their last five wins have come by three or more possessions. Jacksonville’s offense has really come to life, as Trevor Lawrence is finally playing up to his potential. He has been spreading the ball nicely, getting the ball out quickly, and is poised for another big game this Sunday. Admittedly, Denver has looked good on both sides of the ball, but not good enough to put Jacksonville in the underdog role by a crucial number. We can only take what is available on the odds, and scooping up another free field goal in what should be a very close game is the way to go. 

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)

Game 3: Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans

Opening Line: Houston Texans (-14)

This is a massive line for what should be a very one-sided contest. Las Vegas got smashed 31-0 by the Eagles last week, with Kenny Pickett being virtually useless in the pocket. Las Vegas now takes on the best defensive unit in the league. The Texans have plenty to play for at this stage of the season, and they will show no mercy against the Raiders in this one. Houston’s defense has been truly incredible over the last two months, and they are now firing on all cylinders on the other side of the ball, too. C.J. Stroud’s return has lifted this offense, as they stormed out to a 30-7 lead last week against the Cardinals. The ability to play complementary football in Houston is something that has been missing from this team over the last decade, and it appears as though everything is falling into place for the Texans. A two-touchdown spread is a lot of points to swallow, but this will not be a close contest. Maybe the Raiders come back in garbage time, but more often than not, the Texans secure another 20+ point win. 

Pick: Houston Texans (-14)

Season Record: 22-22-1

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