NFL Betting Predictions: Week 18 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 12/30/2025

NFL betting predictions Week 18 opening line report Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens

The final week of the NFL regular season is here. There is still plenty to play for with four division titles up for grabs, and both No. 1 seeds are still undecided. All year long, we have been securing favorable lines early in the week, and Week 18 is the best week of the season to do so again. Between different incentives, seeding, and even draft priorities, teams will have unique strategies when it comes to setting their lineups for this week. By locking in a favorable price now, we can maximize our odds of coming out on top. Our season record is 25-25-1, so the stakes couldn't be higher heading into the final week of the regular season. Before we get into the picks for Week 18, here are the biggest storylines from last week in the NFL.

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Christmas Day letdown: The Christmas Day slate featured four teams eliminated from the playoffs and three very lopsided matchups. While the Vikings' upset over the Lions added intrigue, it was a generally stale day of football for the league.
Texans' defense is legit: Houston will be a real problem in the playoffs thanks to their play on the defensive side of the ball. A patient rebuild for the Texans is starting to pay off, and it will all come down to whether or not CJ Stroud can rise to the occasion.
Ravens stay alive: Baltimore took care of business against the Packers, then got some help with the Browns' upset win over the Steelers. It will all come down to a winner-take-all game in Pittsburgh on Sunday. Get your popcorn.
MayeVP? Drake Maye came into Week 17 as a +250 underdog to win the MVP award. Five touchdowns against the Jets, combined with Stafford’s three-interception game in primetime has flipped the script with Maye coming into the final week with -400 odds to win.
Giants win… at what cost? The battle between the Giants and the Raiders was always going to be ugly. The loser almost certainly secures the first overall pick next season, and Las Vegas took no chances. A 34-10 win for the Giants still has them drafting second.
Sunday night shootout: The Bears and 49ers added their submission to a long list of games of the season. A 42-38 win for San Francisco that came down to the final play sets up a Seahawks-49ers matchup for the No. 1 seed in the NFC next week.

There is plenty to play for in Week 18, and it is time to jump into the opening lines. Make sure you lock these picks in immediately, as there is no guarantee these lines will be available when kickoff rolls around. An extra point or two in your favor can make the difference between winning and losing over the course of the season.

Game 1: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

Opening Line: Seattle Seahawks (-1.5)

It is a bit surprising to see the Seahawks in the road favorite role here. Both teams have won 6 in a row; they are playing great offense and solid defense heading into the final week of the year. The No. 1 seed in the NFC will be awarded to the winner of this one, and we have no choice but to side with the 49ers at home. I have been a big believer in the Seahawks, grabbing +3000 odds on them to win the NFC at the start of the season. However, at this current line, fading Sam Darnold in a big game is too tempting. San Francisco has looked like a well-oiled machine on offense, getting over their early-season injuries to remind the league it is still a team to watch. Brock Purdy had his best game of the season last week, and I really like how balanced their offense has become. Their passing game is among the best in the league, and their league-leading 51% conversion rate on third down is no fluke. They do a great job at staying ahead of the sticks, and even a strong Seattle defense won’t be able to slow them down.

The big question mark in this game is Sam Darnold. Just like last year, the 28-year-old had a great regular season. He then collapsed in the game to decide the No. 1 seed and the first round of the playoffs. The stars are aligning this year for a similar outcome, and while I do believe Darnold has a bright future in the league, he still isn’t worthy of the road favorite role in such a high-stakes game. We have seen him fall apart before, and with a price like this, we really have no choice.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers (+1.5)

Game 2: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Opening Line: New England Patriots (-10.5)

The Patriots were -13.5 point road favorites over the Jets last week, and they flew past that line with a 42-10 victory. While I will say the Dolphins are a better team than New York, this line is much shorter, and the Patriots are now at home. While upsetting the free-falling Tampa Bay Buccaneers was one thing, I don’t expect Miami to find any success here in New England. The Pats have the MVP favorite with Drake Maye, they have one of the best defenses in the league, and Miami is still fragile after a roller coaster season. Quinn Ewers has looked good in the pocket, but he will still struggle to keep up with the points New England will almost certainly pile on the scoreboard. While Tua Tagovailoa’s history of poor showings in cold-weather games isn’t a factor, let’s not pretend that the rest of the Dolphins team is happy to play in the frigid Gillette Stadium. The Dolphins are already looking ahead to next season, while the Patriots are looking to secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Once you add in the extra motivation for Drake Maye to put the cherry on his MVP campaign, even a double-digit spread won’t deter me from tailing New England.

Pick: New England Patriots (-10.5)

Game 3: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Opening Line: Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

The AFC North is on the line in the final game of the 2025 NFL regular season. The Ravens got the miracle they needed to set this game up, and they are now road favorites over their division rival. Baltimore is one win away from overcoming their 1-5 start, and they proved to themselves more than anything that they can win without Lamar Jackson. Getting the two-time MVP back is why this line is where it is, and it is hard to argue that the Ravens could easily roll in this one. Pittsburgh's offense has fallen apart in recent weeks, and with DK Metcalf still suspended, things aren’t going to get any better. Aaron Rodgers is starting to show his age, and relying on physicality in the trenches caps their ceiling. On the other hand, the Ravens have arguably the best quarterback in the league, paired with the best running back in the league. When you pair Jackson and Derrick Henry behind a strong offensive line, the Steelers don’t have much, if any, advantage in the trenches. As long as the Ravens' defense continues to play as they have over the last few months, this game could quickly turn into a blowout as Baltimore piles on the points.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

Season Record: 25-25-1

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Start:	December 30, 2025 @ 10:00 PM
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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 18 Opening Line Report and Picks

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