NFL Power Rankings Week 10
Week 9 was a Revenge Week for the sportsbooks and proof, yet again, that the pendulum always swings back the other way at some point.
Weeks 7 and 8 were a bounty for the betting public. After Baltimore came through as a hefty favorite on Thursday night, NFL favorites were on a ridiculous 24-6 run against the spread heading into the weekend. Week 8 was one of the worst weekends for the sportsbooks this decade, with favorites going 12-2 and the books getting crushed on straights, teasers, moneyline parlays and all manner of nonsense.
Sunday and Monday were a different matter altogether. Underdogs came roaring back with a 9-4 ATS mark in the remainder of Week 9. Carolina and Minnesota pulled huge outright upsets – knocking more than a few people out of their Survivor Pools along the way – and there were three teams that won their games outright (Chargers, Patriots, Jaguars) but couldn’t beat the number.
Dallas was a huge public favorite on Monday Night Football. Their outright loss was the cherry on top for oddsmakers and wrapped up a monster week for the books.
To this point of the season, favorites have had a slight edge at the window, covering at nearly a 56 percent clip. But as last week showed us, the minute you get too comfortable is the minute that The Gambling Gods ignite their fury. And when that happens – you better be betting on something else.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Buffalo Bills (6-2) – The Bills have won seven straight over Miami and nine of 10 in the series. They need to be wary of having a letdown this week after their monster win over Kansas City. And the favorite in the Dolphins series is just 2-6 ATS in the last eight meetings.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) – This week marks the first time the Eagles have been posted as an underdog since their Super Bowl blowout of the Chiefs. Philadelphia has only been posted as an underdog seven times since the start of the 2022 season (68 games). They are 5-2 ATS with five outright wins in that role.
3. Los Angeles Rams (6-2) – The Rams look like a machine. They’ve won three straight by a combined score of 86-20 and they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. The Rams will want revenge for their 26-23 home loss to the 49ers on Oct. 2. The ‘under’ is 9-3 in the Rams’ last 12 games at San Francisco.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) – Andy Reid is 22-4 straight up after a bye week. He is 9-3 SU off a bye with Kansas City and both the Chiefs and the Broncos will have two weeks to prepare for their massive Week 11 meeting in Denver.
5. Detroit Lions (5-3) – That loss last week is a perfect illustration of what I’ve been saying for years about the bye week. Bettors and media bobbleheads way, way, way overestimate the impact of weeks off for football teams. People always treat it as a positive. In the long term it is. In the short term, it can be a major detriment because it gets them out of their rhythm and routine.
6. Green Bay Packers (5-2-1) – This is a rematch of last year’s playoff loss to the Eagles. It’s also a rematch of last year’s season opener, which the Eagles also won 34-29. Green Bay has lost three straight and four of the last five meetings since 2019. The Packers are 11-2 SU in their last 13 Monday night home games.
7. Indianapolis Colts (7-2) – The Colts have really struggled against NFC opposition. They are just 4-13 SU in their last 17 interconference games and they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against teams from the NFC. I also don’t agree with trading two first round draft picks for an overrated Sauce Gardner. Don’t expect him to pay big dividends on this defense over the next few months, much like Marshon Lattimore has flopped since moving to Washington.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) – The Bucs are 4-1 SU and ATS against teams from the AFC. They are also 10-2 SU in their last 12 games as a favorite and 5-2 SU in their last seven home games. The Bucs were banged up before the bye week so we will see if they come out rusty or ready after their weekend off.
9. Seattle Seahawks (6-2) – Klint Kubiak – who I told you was going to be awesome – had Rashid Shaheed in New Orleans last week. Shaheed should be capable of making an instant impact because he will already know the playbook and because Kubiak will know how to utilize him in the offense.
10. Denver Broncos (6-3) – That’s now six straight wins for the Broncos, who could be in a letdown/look ahead spot this Thursday against the rival Raiders. That was an extremely physical game at Houston last week. And Denver has a pivotal game with Kansas City on deck. The Broncos are just 3-10 SU in their last 13 games against Las Vegas and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 against the Raiders.
11. New England Patriots (7-2) – That’s now six straight wins for the Patriots as well, and Mike Vrabel seems like a lock for Coach of the Year. The Patriots are 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this season and Drake Maye has yet to throw an interception away from home. The Patriots are just 5-14 SU in their last 19 games as an underdog.
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-3) – The underdog has dominated the Rams-49ers series, going 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The 49ers are a dominating 16-6 SU in their last 22 games against divisional opponents but just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against an NFC West rival.
13. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) – The Chargers lost Joe Alt for the rest of the season to an ankle injury. That ends any hope that this team had for being a major player in the AFC. Justin Herbert took six sacks against the Titans and is on pace to get dropped over 50 times this season.
14. Houston Texans (3-5) – C.J. Stroud was concussed by a late/legal/iffy hit from Denver corner Kris Abrams-Draine last week. Somewhat ironic that head coach DeMeco Ryans criticized the defender on that play (and I 100 percent thought it should’ve been a 15-yard personal foul) when last year, after Houston linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair crushed Trevor Lawrence and knocked him out, Ryans was criticizing the quarterback for sliding late.
15. Baltimore Ravens (3-5) – Look, the Ravens won and covered both of their games last week, versus the weak Bears and weaker Dolphins. But Baltimore really could’ve lost both of those games. They did not play great against Miami – the Dolphins threw up on themselves time and time again – and that was a misleading final score. There are still issues on with this group.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) – Six turnovers sure as hell help. But does that mean that this defense has turned a corner? Pittsburgh has still held just two opponents (Browns and Patriots) below 20 points. Look for Pittsburgh to have the home field advantage this Sunday in Los Angeles. I bet 75 percent of the fans in SoFi Stadium will be wearing black and gold.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) – How much longer do we have to pretend that Jakobi Myers is some kind of impact receiver? He’s played seven years in the NFL and has one season with over 870 receiving yards and has never posted more than 1,027 yards in a single year.
18. Chicago Bears (5-3) – I’m going to continue to say it: Ben Johnson has no problem criticizing portions of his team. But he’s the one who is responsible for this sloppy mess. It’s on him. Not being able to hold a 14-point lead in the final two minutes? That’s on the head coach. Players being clueless and not knowing what to do on the onsides kick? That’s on the head coach. Johnson is a rookie so I’m willing to be patient. But he has a long way to go before I would consider him a competent or capable head coach.
19. Minnesota Vikings (4-4) – What did I say? Can’t bet on or against this team because they can beat any team in the NFL or lose to any team in the NFL on any given week. The Vikings and the Falcons are the two flakiest teams in the NFL. Basically, just look at both of them, figure out what the most sensible, rational outcome for their game is in a given week – and then bet the opposite.
20. Carolina Panthers (5-4) – The Panthers have beaten the Saints by six or more points just three times in the last decade (21 meetings). Carolina is just 6-13 SU in the last 19 meetings with the Saints and 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Carolina is 1-10 SU and ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite.
21. Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) – Cincinnati’s defense is one of the worst in NFL history and new Cowboys linebacker Logan Wilson couldn’t even get on the field for the Bengals (he was benched for a rookie). The Jets are No. 27 in scoring defense and No. 26 in rushing defense. So sorry if I’m not fawning over the moves to get Quinnen Williams and Wilson to bolster this pathetic Cowboys defense.
22. Arizona Cardinals (3-5) – The lookahead line on the Arizona-Seattle game prior to Monday Night Football had Arizona +7.0. The Cardinals knocked off the Cowboys but that obviously didn’t impress bettors, with over 90 percent of the early action coming down on the Seahawks. Despite that, the line has actually dropped to 6.5 for the road team. The Cardinals are 10-2 ATS as underdogs but just 2-9 against the Seahawks and 4-19 SU in divisional games.
23. Atlanta Falcons (3-5) – The Falcons are 5-12 SU and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games against AFC opponents. This team did go on the road and beat Minnesota and nearly went on the road and knocked off New England so I suppose that anything is possible this week in Indianapolis.
24. Washington Commanders (3-5) – That is now three straight losses by 21 or more points for this team. Washington has one of the oldest rosters in the NFL. I bet a bunch of these players were hoping to get traded to a contender this week and will be disappointed that they are stuck on a going-nowhere squad. This Washington team has a lot different mojo than the one that went to Detroit and beat this week’s opponent last year in the NFC Divisional Round.
25. Cleveland Browns (2-6) – The spread in the Jets game opened with the Browns as 2.0-point underdogs. But New York selling off parts this week will surely drove bettors toward Cleveland, which is coming off a bye, and now the Browns are a road favorite heading to New York. Cleveland has lost 12 straight road games – but the Browns are road favorites! The Browns are also 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
26. Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) – Cincinnati is on pace (567) to eclipse Carolina’s record for most points allowed in a season (534). The Bengals are allowing 33.3 points per game, slightly above the 1981 Baltimore Colts for the worst defense of all time. All nine of Cincinnati’s opponents this year have surpassed their team total in the prop market.
27. Miami Dolphins (2-7) – I will say it again: Miami should’ve beaten the Ravens last Thursday. That seems like a bold call after a team loses 28-6. However, the total yardage was just 338-332 Baltimore and Miami was the victim of two lost fumbles, an interception inside its own 20-yard-line, a missed field goal and a 0-for-3 spell in the red zone. Add in turnover on downs and Miami put on a master class of how to sabotage yourself.
28. Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) – Geno Smith now has 26 interceptions over his last 25 games and has 46 picks dating back to the start of the 2022 season. He’s completed around 68 percent of his passes during that four-year stint and has 72 touchdown passes. But if he can’t cut down on the turnovers then he has kind of reached his ceiling as a third-tier NFL quarterback.
29. New Orleans Saints (1-8) – The Rams’ 43:53-16:07 time of possession win last week was by far the most lopsided of this NFL season. However, it didn’t even crack the Top 25 of all-time and isn’t in the Top 15 this century. If you were wondering, the most lopsided TOP of all time was the Houston Oilers over the Dallas Cowboys (48:34-11:26) in a 26-23 Oilers win in 1991.
30. New York Giants (2-7) – As I have stated, repeatedly: Brian Daboll’s motivations are not aligned with the best interests of Jaxson Dart or the New York Giants’ long-term plan. He left Dart in to get pulverized last week because he doesn’t care if Dart gets injured. Daboll needs to win games. He will burn down anything he has to if it means keeping a job that there is absolutely no way that he is going to keep. Daboll should’ve been fired heading into the bye week.
31. Tennessee Titans (1-8) – Last week marked just the third time this season that the Titans have scored more than 17 points (thanks to a defensive touchdown and a special teams touchdown). The followed up their last two offensive “outbursts” with 0 and 10 points in their following games.
32. New York Jets (1-7) – The Jets were winners at the NFL trade deadline. I give them credit for flipping two former Pro Bowlers with big contracts for a boatload of assets. However, what have you seen from the Jets organization – from ownership through the front office right on down – that would make you think that this group of clowns will do absolutely anything with those assets?
Robert Ferringo has posted seven of 10 winning football seasons, including last year thanks to an astounding +10,660 football run last season. Robert banked nearly +40,000 in profit between 2010-2019 for a 10-year average profit of nearly +4,000. He has earned 11 of 16 overall winning years and 69 of 114 winning months while also going 23-9 with his football futures rated 5.0+ and earning 16 of 19 winning Super Bowls. He is a member of the Football Writers Association of America and he is set for another amazing football season.
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