NFL Power Rankings Week 9
See, now this is what I like with my power rankings.
I like stasis. Equilibrium. I don’t like big, wild swings in my rankings. I like these power rankings to be more predictive than reactive, so the goal is to have weeks where I only have to make subtle shifts rather than major alterations.
This was one of those weeks.
I didn’t make a single change to my top eight from last week. And the top 13 teams are all the same, with just a couple minor shuffles. I also didn’t make a single change to teams 18-26 and the lower 15 teams were the same, with some minor tweaks to the bottom six.
It feels like we’ve kind of figured out who’s who and what’s what in the NFL.
Despite that, it doesn’t mean that it is easy sledding from here on out.
Last week, 12 of the 13 games were decided by double-digit margins, the first time since 1970 that all but one game in an NFL week was decided by 10 or more. The average margin of victory last week was 18.5 points per game, making last week one of the least competitive in NFL history.
No coincidentally, the favorites went 11-2 against the spread last week, making a killing for the public over the sportsbooks. The chalk has gone 21-7 ATS over the last two weeks.
It’s not going to be like that every weekend, that’s for sure. Last week was an outlier. It was a once-every-50-year occurrence that is going to lull bettors into a belief that the good teams are just too good and the bad teams are just too bad and that we’re set up for more blowouts and favorites cashing tickets down the stretch.
If you believe that, you must be new here.
No, the sportsbooks will have their revenge. Maybe it will be this week. Maybe it will be next. But the favorites are not going to continue to cash at a 75 percent clip the rest of the way. Just because the league, built on the illusion of parity, seems to be a clear case of have’s vs. have not’s that doesn’t mean that the bottom feeders and dregs don’t have a few surprises left in them.
This week alone we’ve seen a major adjustment from the books. We have four teams favored by 9.5 or more points and five of the 14 games on the board feature spreads of 7.5 or higher. The sportsbooks are doing what they always do: adjusting. Now it’s time for bettors to do the same.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) – The Chiefs are 4-0 straight up and against the spread in their last four playoff meetings against the Bills. However, they are 0-4 SU and ATS in the last four regular season meetings between the two teams, including a 30-21 loss in Buffalo last year.
2. Detroit Lions (5-2) – Prior to last week’s action, the look ahead line on this week’s game against Minnesota was 4.5. I said last week: if you like the Lions you should bet them early because if the Vikings lost to the Chargers then I thought the spread would move to 7.5. That’s exactly where it opened and has been bet up to 8.5 upon news of Carson Wentz’s injury. The Lions have won five straight against Minnesota and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 against the Vikings.
3. Buffalo Bills (5-2) – I don’t know if it is a purposeful decision between Josh Allen and Joe Brady or if it is coincidence, but Allen has not been running and making plays with his legs like he has in the past. I know his rushing attempts are tracking evenly with his attempts the past several years. But Allen is not escaping the pocket and making plays, which puts a lot of pressure on the opposing defense, the same way he did before Brady took over the attack.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) – That wasn’t a “breakout” for Saquon Barkley. That was Philadelphia re-establishing its identity as a bully. The Eagles committed to being massive at the point of attack, using extra offensive linemen and tight ends throughout the game. If you’re going to commit seven guys to blocking the running game you’re probably going to run the ball. Barkley did leave with a mild groin strain but will be find after the bye week.
5. Los Angeles Rams (5-2) – Sean McVay is 4-8 ATS in his last 12 games coming off a week of rest. McVay is also just 2-4 ATS as a favorite of a touchdown or more and the Rams haven’t been a double-digit favorite since Week 6 of the 2022 season. He’s just 4-4 ATS in that role since 2020 and is 8-6 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more since 2018.
6. Green Bay Packers (5-1-1) – The Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games and are 10-3 SU in their last 13 in Lambeau. Green Bay just finished a stretch where they played four of five games away from home and we’ll see if they get a boost from the home crowd. The Packers are 3-0 SU at home this year but have won those games by 9, 9 and 14 points.
7. Indianapolis Colts (7-1) – In addition to having five more TDs than anybody else in the NFL (14), Taylor has recorded 3.9% of all the league's rushing yardage by running backs this season (850). Since 2002, that's the sixth-highest rate recorded by any back through eight weeks. And a league-best 31% of his touches are turning into first downs or touchdowns.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) – These guys earned a break. They played four games in 21 days, with three of those battles on the road (including a long trip to Seattle). The look ahead line has Tampa Bay -1.5 next week at home against the Patriots.
9. Seattle Seahawks (5-2) – Nice situational advantage here for the Seahawks. They are coming off a bye week and facing a Washington team that just played on Monday night. Also, Seattle must travel east but gets a night game, negating some of the west-to-east travel issues that bite some teams. The last four games between Seattle and Washington have all been decided by five points or less and an average of 3.3 points per game.
10. Denver Broncos (5-3) – Five of Denver’s last six games against the Texans have gone ‘under’ and the ‘under’ is 6-1 in Denver’s last seven road games. They are 1-3 ATS away from home this season, with three of those four games going ‘under’.
11. New England Patriots (6-2) – Exactly one of New England’s six wins (a three-point win at Buffalo) has come against a team with a winning record or a team that is outside of my bottom 10. But hey, they keep cashing tickets so maybe New England should be an automatic play at this point. They are on a 5-0 SU and ATS heater and around 90 percent of the early action this week is on the Pats.
12. San Francisco 49ers (5-3) – This is going to be a second straight week where the 49ers must travel East and kickoff in a 10 a.m. PST start. The 49ers are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 Sunday road games and 4-10 SU in their last 14 road games overall.
13. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) – Joe Alt. The guy is a future Hall of Famer at tackle. The Chargers offense is completely different when he is on the field. If they can keep Mekhi Becton and Trey Pipkins healthy (spoiler alert: Becton will never stay healthy) then the Chargers will still be a major player in the AFC West race. The ‘under’ is 14-6 in Los Angeles’ last 20 road games.
14. Houston Texans (3-4) – That was by far Houston’s best offensive performance of the season. Rookies Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins were making plays early in that game that helped the Texans build momentum. I also like how they were using Braxton Berrios in the slot. That was a solid effort against a tough, disciplined San Francisco defense.
15. Baltimore Ravens (2-5) – Thursday night favorites have been getting smoked this year, going 2-6 ATS. Last week’s win and cover by the Chargers on Thursday snapped a streak of five straight ATS wins (and three straight SU wins) by underdogs on Thursday. Road favorites on Thursday night are just 3-4 SU and ATS dating back to Week 4 of the 2023 season.
16. Atlanta Falcons (3-4) – Here is another team that I am done with. There is absolutely no telling what Falcons team is going to show up from week to week and there is no rhyme or reason to their performance. They beat Buffalo and Minnesota by double digits but got bombed 30-0 by Carolina and 34-10 by Miami. Maybe the way to play all Atlanta games is to bet on the least likely outcome. The underdog is 5-2 in all Atlanta games this year and 26-19 ATS in their games dating back to 2022.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) – It’s time for Teryl Austin to go. This is Austin’s fourth year as the Steelers defensive coordinator. His defenses have finished 13th, 21st, and 12th in total defense and are currently No. 30 this year. That may seem OK. However, in the 28 previous seasons the Steelers have fielded 21 defenses in the Top 10 and only three defenses outside the Top 12. Austin has easily been the worst defensive coordinator in Pittsburgh over the last 35 years and only six of the nine units that Austin has coordinated in his NFL career have finished in the top half of the league in total defense.
18. Dallas Cowboys (3-4-1) – Dallas is just 3-14 ATS in its last 17 Monday Night Football home games. The Cowboys are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against Arizona, including losses as a favorite in 2022 and 2023, but Dallas is 14-4 SU in their last 18 home games against Arizona.
19. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3) – This is one of those spots where the unknown of a rookie head coach is a major x-factor in handicapping this game. The Jaguars, coming of a disastrous European trip and two straight losses, are a massive public favorite this week at Las Vegas. How much do we trust Coen to have these guys ready to play?
20. Chicago Bears (4-3) – The Bears are now 6-24 SU in their last 30 road games and have lost 11 of 15 games against AFC opponents. Chicago is facing an average third-down distance of 8.7 yards, the second longest in the league. A shaky running game and idiotic penalties are a big reason why.
21. Minnesota Vikings (3-4) – Carson Wentz will have season-ending surgery, ending that roller coast ride, and it looks like J.J. McCarthy will get the ball for the Vikings this week. Unless his “ankle injury” is too much for him to overcome. Minnesota is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games against the Lions and 0-5 ATS in their last five games in Detroit.
22. Washington Commanders (3-4) – Dude – just take the points. Dan Quinn tried to throw offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury under the bus after the game, talking about “missed opportunities”, but who was making the call not to take three field goals early in the game rather than go for it (and lose) on fourth down three times? Instead of realizing that last year’s fourth down success was a mathematical fluke, Quinn seems to think that magic is going to work every time.
23. Arizona Cardinals (2-5) – The Cardinals’ five losses during this losing streak have come by just 2.6 points per game. Closes losses are still losses, though, and the Cardinals are now 4-10 SU in their last 14 games and a horrendous 14-34 SU in their last 48. Arizona is 5-15 SU in its last 20 road games but 9-3 ATS in their last 12 away from home.
24. Cleveland Browns (2-6) – Weird statistical game for the Browns defense, which is really the only positive thing about this franchise right now. They had 11 tackles for loss, Myles Garrett had five sacks, they didn’t commit a penalty through almost three quarters, and they held the Patriots to just three third down conversions. But they gave up 32 points and over 420 yards.
25. Carolina Panthers (4-4) – That looked like last year’s defense. You know, the one that gave up the most points in NFL history. Carolina’s last three wins have come by a combined 13 points and their two losses (to New England and Buffalo) have come by a combined 60 points.
26. Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) – Al Golden’s defense is averaging over 10 missed tackles per game this year. The next highest team averages around six. Three rookies in the starting lineup – including both linebackers – and a defensive backfield full of second- and third-year players doesn’t help either. The Bengals may be without Joe Flacco (shoulder) and Trey Hendrickson (hip) this week.
27. Miami Dolphins (2-6) – That did not look like the Miami defense that was getting steamrolled through the first two months of the season. They held Atlanta to just 45 rushing yards on 17 carries and Jordyn Brooks was an animal, filling gaps, almost getting a safety, and leading a defense that was playing downhill all day. Was that a mirage against a shaky Falcons team or can they do it again versus the Ravens this week?
28. Las Vegas Raiders (2-5) – The Raiders are 1-4 SU coming out of a bye week since their relocation to Las Vegas. Their losses have been by an average of 12.5 points per game, with two of them coming at home. Three of the five post-bye games have seen 50 or more combined points, with a weird 3-0 loss to Minnesota in 2023 as the outlier.
29. New Orleans Saints (1-7) – OK, I’m done. Some competitive games and near-misses against good opponents (Arizona, 49ers, Patriots) had me convinced that this group could be a sneaky underdog as a not-as-bad-as-you-think squad. Nope. They are 2-6 ATS and a 14-point underdog for the second time this week in Los Angeles. The worst part is that the Saints have been pretty healthy so you can’t even blame injuries for their flop. They’re just bad at football.
30. New York Giants (2-6) – These guys were interesting for exactly 15 minutes. Now they’re just a team that has allowed 71 points in their last five quarters and are 2-7 SU in their last nine games. I will be absolutely stunned if Jaxon Dart makes it through the rest of this season without getting injured. He is still just taking way, way too many hits and he isn’t going to survive in that offense.
31. Tennessee Titans (1-7) – Tennessee has scored 14 or fewer points in seven of their past 10 games and if you kick out that bizarre fourth quarter at Arizona then the Titans have averaged 8.6 yards per game over the last five weeks.
32. New York Jets (1-7) – Could the Jets make it two wins in a row this week against the equally hapless Browns?!?! This will be the ninth meeting between these two pathetic, disgusting franchises over the last 11 years. The Jets have won five of the previous eight both SU and ATS and the favorite in this series is 6-2 ATS.
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