NFL Power Rankings Week 11
For all the talk and discussion and analysis about key numbers and line value on NFL betting, the reality is something that handicappers aren’t supposed to talk about:
The spread shouldn’t matter.
The facts are the facts: over the last 25 years in the NFL – so we’re talking well over 6,000 games – the team that wins the game outright covers the spread roughly 80 percent of the time. That means that the number only comes into play in one of every five games, or two or three times a weekend.
Look, when you do this professionally, the margins matter. Percentages matter. So, 20 percent of the time is a lot.
The overwhelming majority of people that are betting on NFL football aren’t professionals. That doesn’t mean that they don’t want to win, obviously. But it means that those big picture numbers should be less of a concern. I can’t tell you how many 100’s of times I’ve heard guys talk themselves out of a winner because they didn’t want to play 3.5 because it was “over a key number”.
Again, I know I’m on an island with this approach. Most professionals would consider my viewpoint sacrilegious. It’s also the truth. You should never bet on an NFL team unless you think they have a realistic chance to win the game. And if you love a team to win, then my advice is to ignore the number and just let it rip.
I am of the belief that if you bet on a favorite to cover and then they win the game but don’t cover the number it’s just kind of bad luck. And that 80 percent number kind of backs up my point.
That brings me to Week 10, where the Gambling Gods were screwing with people left and right. If the favorites had not cleaned up in the 4 p.m. window, then the general public would’ve gotten buried. The underdogs went 7-2 against the spread in the opening nine games of the weekend. And one of those covers by a favorite was that wild Houston game, with a game-ending defensive touchdown shifting the money to the Texans.
The underdogs went 9-6 ATS this weekend. And adding insult to injury, there were three games (Raiders, Falcons and Giants) where the favorite won the game – but didn’t cover. That is the second straight week with three win/no cover games, a particularly cruel kick in the balls for public chalk eaters.
And for the record, over the last four weeks – 57 games – there have been nine times (16 percent) where the team that won the game didn’t cover the spread.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) – Well, hello old friend. Now I feel dumb for not just having the Eagles as the best team in the NFL all season long. Monday Night Football winners have gone just 4-5 against the spread in the following week, with the last two MNF winners (Kansas City and Arizona) both losing outright the following week.
2. Los Angeles Rams (7-2) – Los Angeles is now 17-6 SU and ATS in its last 23 games. They are on a 10-2 ATS run and have covered five of six at home. The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against the Seahawks and are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against NFC West opponents.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) – Kansas City’s situational defense needs to improve. They have allowed touchdowns on 80 percent of opponents’ red zone trips over their last three games. That has raised their full season red zone touchdown percentage to 63.6 this season, up from 54 percent last year. The Chiefs have also allowed 45.2 percent conversions on third downs over their last three games, up from 40.8 over the whole season and 43 percent last year.
4. Detroit Lions (6-3) – The Lions have been a bit of a mixed bag this year when facing off against other Super Bowl-caliber opposition. Detroit went on the road and manhandled the Ravens in Week 3 (although Baltimore wasn’t playing particularly well at that time). They also lost by double-digits at Green Bay in the opener and at Kansas City on Sunday Night Football last month. The Lions have won 11 of 13 road games and they are 41-16 ATS in their last 57 games.
5. Buffalo Bills (6-3) – I find it hilarious that people have actually discussed this week whether or not the Bills should bring back former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll now that he was (finally) fired by the Giants. What has anyone seen from the Giants offense over the last four years to make anyone believe Daboll is some kind of mastermind? He had four offenses in Buffalo on his first tour. The first two were ranked No. 30 in total offense and scoring and then No. 24 in total offense in scoring. Daboll should be coordinating in Conference USA next year.
6. Seattle Seahawks (7-2) – There have been four games this season in which a team has scored 30 or more points in the first half. Seattle is responsible for three of them. Seattle is on a 7-1 ATS run and they are 13-1 SU in their last 14 road games. The Seahawks are just 3-10 ATS in their last 10 road games against the Rams.
7. Indianapolis Colts (8-2) – Sunday was the third time this year that Jonathan Taylor has rushed for at least three touchdowns in a game. He is on pace for 1,936 rushing, which would put him 170 yards short of the all-time record. The Colts are going likely going to have to make the same decision that Philadelphia did last December with Saquon Barkley: go for history or save him for the playoffs.
8. New England Patriots (8-2) – Favorites on Thursday Night Football are just 3-6 ATS on the season. Double-digit favorites are 0-3 ATS, including last week’s flop by the Broncos against the Raiders.
9. Green Bay Packers (5-3-1) – I know I’m in the minority here, but I don’t think there is anything “wrong” with the Packers offense. Yes, they’ve been held to 20 points over the last two games. But they averaged 32.3 points per game in the four games prior to that. Green Bay went 1-for-5 in the red zone against Carolina (fluke) and they just got sucked into a grinder on Monday against the Eagles. It happens. If they can’t put up 24 or more points against the Giants then they will have my attention.
10. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) – The Chargers defense has been insane lately, allowing teams to convert just 19.4 percent of their third downs over their last three games and allowing a touchdown on just two of their last eight red zone stands. Add in the turnovers they’ve forced and the safety they produced last week, and the Chargers defense is more than picking up the slack.
11. Denver Broncos (8-2) – I know these guys have won seven straight games. But three of the wins have come against the Jets, Giants and Raiders by a combined seven points, another win was over the Bengals, and a fifth came against a backup quarterback. Denver has only beaten one team that is currently over .500 this year. The Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against Kansas City, including covering (and winning outright) in two of three.
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) – Tampa Bay has been outgained in six straight games – including getting outgained by 60 yards in a 23-3 win over the Saints – and they have only outgained two opponents this year, the Jets and Texans. This team has been leaking oil for a while and they are not as good as their record.
13. San Francisco 49ers (6-4) – This team desperately needs a bye week. Unfortunately for them, they play three more straight weeks before they get a break. The Niners are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games played on Sunday and six of their last eight road games overall have gone ‘over’.
14. Houston Texans (4-5) – I have said for years that I thought Davis Mills could be a solid, cost-controlled, low-floor/low ceiling quarterback option for a team. (Kind of like Daniel Jones.) He has the talent to be a starter for someone and if he puts up a few more efforts like he did in Sunday’s 19-point-comeback then he might get some nibbles this offseason.
15. Baltimore Ravens (4-5) – That’s three wins both SU and ATS over 15 days for one of the hottest teams in football. The Ravens have averaged 28 points per game during this streak but the biggest change from the 1-5 start has been the defense. They surrendered 33.3 points per game through their first six and just 13.7 over their last three.
16. Chicago Bears (6-3) – In the first quarter, Caleb Williams had two rollouts to his right side that led to him throwing absolute lasers (both of which were dropped) 40- and 35-yards down the field. In the second quarter, Williams rolled out left and (barely) overthrew his receiver through the back of the end zone – with the ball traveling around 55 yards in the air. Williams’ arm talent is absurd. So is his ability to escape pressure, which almost singlehandedly won them that game last week.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) – This week is a revenge spot for the Steelers, who lost to the Bengals on Thursday night just a few weeks ago. Pittsburgh had a 10-0 lead in that game before allowing 20 straight points and 328 passing yards to the Bengals. The favorite is just 3-7 ATS in this series and Pittsburgh has lost three of their last four home games to Cincinnati.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) – Anyone that was surprised by that bizarre result against Houston on Sunday just hasn’t been paying attention to Jacksonville football. It’s like that seemingly every week! Their loss to the Bengals, their win in the first meeting with Houston, their wins over Kansas City and Las Vegas; all of those games have been nuts. The Jaguars are now 0-4 ATS in their last four games and I’m sure this week’s game against the Chargers will feature some kind of wild, last-second comeback.
19. Minnesota Vikings (4-5) – The Vikings have won eight of their last nine games against Chicago, including that garbage comeback in Week 1 at Soldier Field. The Vikings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and they are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five divisional games.
20. Carolina Panthers (5-5) – Bryce Young has topped 200 yards passing exactly one time this year. That was back in Week 2 in a 55-attempt effort at Arizona top cap a wild comeback. He has averaged just 121 passing yards per game over his last three games. He is terrible and this team is a fraud.
21. Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) – Please don’t act surprised when Dallas’ midseason pickups make a few plays but don’t have a significant overall impact on one of the league’s worst defenses. Jurrah didn’t make those deadline deals because he thought it would massively improve his teams. He made those deals so people would talk about the Cowboys. And it worked. Dallas is 11-1 SU in its last 12 Monday Night Football road games.
22. Arizona Cardinals (3-6) – The Cardinals are now just 4-20 SU and 7-17 ATS in their last 24 divisional games. Granted, the NFC West is probably the best division in football this year (though the AFC West is right there and NFC North is no slouch). The Cardinals are still a clear fourth-best in the West right now, though.
23. Miami Dolphins (3-7) – That 31-6 beatdown at Cleveland must’ve jarred something loose for the Dolphins. They’ve outplayed their last three opponents, winning twice, and the defense has looked completely different than the group that couldn’t stop anyone the first seven weeks of the season. Miami has allowed just 51 points in its last three games (compared to 205 in the first seven) and have surrendered just 282 rushing yards (on 70 carries) to three of the best rushing attacks in the league (Atlanta, Baltimore, Buffalo). By comparison, they allowed Rico Dowdle 206 rushing yards on just 23 attempts.
24. Atlanta Falcons (3-6) – Michael Penix is now 1-for-18 on his last 18 third down passes. He is completing just 58.8 percent of his passes overall and he is at just 42.2 percent when he is blitzed. Penix offers nothing on the ground either, with just 20 rushing attempts (that includes sneaks) producing just 61 yards and one touchdown. At this point it is hard to say what he’s actually good at.
25. Cleveland Browns (2-7) – This defense is still No. 2 in yards allowed per game despite getting exactly zero help from the league’s No. 31 total offense. Cleveland is No. 2 in passing defense and allows fewer than 98 rushing yards per game. I have no idea how a team that good on that side of the ball – with an offensive-minded head coach – can’t at least threaten .500.
26. Washington Commanders (3-6) – Learn the lessons. First, teams that come out of nowhere (especially with first-year quarterbacks) to make an unexpected playoff run always regress the following season. And second, teams that “win” the offseason with flashy free agent deals almost never produce to expectations in the regular season. Washington is allowing touchdowns on 83 percent of opponents’ red zone trips over their last four games.
27. Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) – Yes, Joe Burrow will play when he is ready to come back from injury. I know it is a lost season and you’re risking “Glass Joe” to further injury. He’s making $55 million per season, though, and there is no way in hell that the Bengals (the owners, not the team) are going to let him take all that money and not play. It would also look sketchy to the guys in the locker room, who are playing out the string. I expect Burrow back the week of Thanksgiving.
28. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) – I know he is only a rookie. But Ashton Jeanty kind of sucks. He can’t run, block or catch and is a liability every time he’s out on the field. Las Vegas has a ton of problems. But their complete and total lack of offensive talent is probably at the top of the list. Their quarterback is mediocre – and he might be the second-best player on that side of the ball (Brock Bowers). The line stinks. They don’t have NFL-caliber receivers. And their lead back stinks. What do you expect from this group?
29. New Orleans Saints (2-8) – Cam Jordan is a future Hall of Famer. But me and everyone else with a Saints ticket last week was cursing his name when he pulled a Leon Lett after that blocked field goal in the middle of the third quarter. Jordan’s failed recovery when the ball passed the line of scrimmage gave the Panthers a fresh set of downs in a 10-7 game – which Carolina immediately squandered by fumbling the ball back to the Saints.
30. New York Giants (2-8) – Jaxson Dart has taken off for 57 rushes (32 off designed runs) and he’s been sacked 21 times. That is 78 hits – and it doesn’t even count sacks and hits on plays that are taken off the board due to penalties. Dart has only started seven games. That means he is taking, on average, over 11 hits per game. He’s already been evaluated in the medical tent four straight games, including at least twice for concussions (which he now has). This kid is going to end his career before it even begins. He should not play for the rest of the season. There is zero point.
31. New York Jets (2-7) – New York’s 27-20 win was one of the more misleading finals of the weekend. The Jets posted 6.3 offensive yards per point, putting 27 on the board despite just 127 passing yards (42 came on one play) and 42 rushing yards. Two special teams touchdowns will do that for you.
32. Tennessee Titans (1-8) – The Titans had a bye week and I bet you didn’t even notice.
Robert Ferringo has posted seven of 10 winning football seasons, including last year thanks to an astounding +10,660 football run last season. Robert banked nearly +40,000 in profit between 2010-2019 for a 10-year average profit of nearly +4,000. He has earned 11 of 16 overall winning years and 69 of 114 winning months while also going 23-9 with his football futures rated 5.0+ and earning 16 of 19 winning Super Bowls. He is a member of the Football Writers Association of America and he is set for another amazing football season.
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