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Expert NFL Handicapping: Starting a Rookie Quarterback is a Terrible Idea

by Robert Ferringo - 7/14/2023

Starting rookie NFL quarterbacks Geno Smith Seattle Seahawks

Quarterback is the most consequential position in sports. It’s the most important position in the most profitable and popular sport in this country. The flow of billions of dollars, annually, is directed by these offensive conductors.

So, given the importance of this position, both within the sport of football and within the context of the sports betting economy writ large, it is absolutely baffling to me that NFL teams are so bad at developing quarterbacks.

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HISTORICALLY GREAT NFL QUARTERBACKS THAT DIDN’T START AS ROOKIES

First, what do the following quarterbacks have in common: Brett Favre. Drew Brees. Tom Brady. Aaron Rodgers. Philip Rivers. Eli Manning. Patrick Mahomes. Kurt Warner. Kirk Cousins. The answer? None of these guys were Day 1 starters in their rookie seasons.

They sat. They learned. They waited. They developed. And, when they were ready, they were put into the starting lineup, and they performed.

I understand the natural retort is to list the guys like Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger that were Day 1 starters. My response to that would be that for every Cam Newton and Carson Palmer, there are 10 Sam Bradfords, Joey Harringtons, Matt Leinarts and Christian Ponders.

THIS YEAR’S NFL ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS ARE BEING SET UP FOR FAILURE

Last April’s draft saw three quarterbacks taken within the first four picks. Bryce Young (Carolina), C.J. Stroud (Houston) and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis) are the league’s newest signal callers. They join the five arms taken in the first 15 selections of the 2021 NFL draft (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones) and the four taken in 2020 as the NFL’s next wave.

The expectation is that Young, Stroud and Richardson will all start for their teams this fall. This is consistent with what has been the current “conventional wisdom” in NFL circles about quarterback development. Everyone thinks it is a good idea to throw these rookies into the fire.

“The sheer volume of first round flameouts at the (quarterback) position…kind of proves my point.”

I, however, think that is insane. And the sheer volume of first-round flameouts at the position – along with the massive gulf between the top 10 and bottom 10 starters in the league right now – kind of proves my point that NFL front offices are missing the mark when it comes to quarterback development.

Rookie quarterbacks should not be starting. They should absolutely spend their entire first year on the bench.

If some team is feeling frisky and wants to throw their first-year guy in for the final two or three games of the season, then have at it. But the idea of a Day 1 rookie starter is, in my opinion, the height of stupidity.

WHY DOES STARTING AS AN NFL ROOKIE IMPEDE QUARTERBACK PROGRESS?

Follow me on this: bad NFL teams aren’t just terrible because of poor quarterbacks. The worst teams – the teams that usually end up drafting in the Top 10 – usually also have a mix of the following:

• Poor coaching

• Weak offensive lines

• Shoddy defense

Do you know what won’t fix any of those problems? A rookie quarterback.

The game moves too fast and is too complicated for rookie quarterbacks. When a player gets thrown into the starting lineup too early, that can stunt their development in the following ways:

• They develop bad habits on and off the field.

• They get happy feet in the pocket because they don’t trust their lines.

• They start turning the ball over, which causes everyone – the fans, their teammates, themselves – to slowly lose confidence.

• They get hurt.

EXAMPLES OF NFL ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS WHO STARTED TOO SOON

The number of first-round quarterback busts over the last 25 years is too long to list here.

Instead, let’s take a look at what has been one of the worst franchises in the NFL over the last 40 years, the New York Jets, and how they have handled the quarterback position.

Since 2009, the Jets have used first- or second-round picks on Mark Sanchez (No. 5), Geno Smith (No. 39), Christian Hackenberg (No. 51), Sam Darnold (No. 3) and Zach Wilson (No. 2). Sanchez, Smith, Darnold and Wilson all started as rookies. All of them were pathetic.

Instead of trying something different, like easing young quarterbacks into a starting role, the Jets repeatedly drafted young signal callers and threw them into the flames. It is not a coincidence that it didn’t work any of the four times they have tried it!

In 2022, only one quarterback, Kenny Pickett, was drafted in the first round. Pittsburgh, wisely, chose to start veteran Mitch Trubisky instead of Pickett. However, midway through the season, Pickett was tossed into the starting lineup. He was forced to play behind the Steelers wobbly offensive line and – surprise, surprise – Pickett suffered two concussions.

In my opinion, there is no denying that Pickett would’ve been better off in the long term if he didn’t take a single snap in a regular season game in 2022.

Also, Joe Burrow’s career was almost crippled as a rookie due to horrible offensive line play. Burrow tore his ACL and MCL in his first season after 10 starts that saw him sacked 32 times.

Could Pickett become the next Andrew Luck, whose career was cut short by injuries? Or will he be the next Burrow and rebound to greatness? We will see.

MORE EXAMPLES OF QUARTERBACKS WHO TOOK TIME TO DEVELOP

Besides the Hall of Fame examples I listed earlier, Geno Smith is another great example of what can happen to a quarterback when he is given time to grow into the position.

After flaming out with the Jets, Smith appeared in just seven games for the Giants and Chargers in 2017-2018 and was out of the league in 2019. Smith signed with Seattle in 2020, where he sat behind Russell Wilson for two seasons. Last year Smith was handed the job, and he performed at a Pro Bowl level.

Jalen Hurts is another example of a player that came in with low expectations, wasn’t rushed into the starting lineup as a rookie, and thrived. Hurts played in just four late-season games his rookie year. He has since developed into an MVP-caliber starter. 

Jordan Love will be a bit of a test case for my philosophy with the Packers.

Green Bay has had the incredible fortune of having two all-time great quarterbacks, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, lead the team for the last 30 years. Favre didn’t start his rookie season. Rodgers sat for three years before he got the call. If Love goes on to be a 10-year starter, I hope it will cause every front office in the league to reevaluate how they are treat young quarterbacks.

“Looking back at the last quarter-century’s worth of failed quarterback careers you have to admit that maybe there is a market inefficiency in the way teams go about QB development.”

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION TO THE NFL QUARTERBACK DEVELOPMENT PROBLEM?

I understand the weak reasoning for forcing young quarterbacks into action: economics. The belief is that teams must win while their quarterback is on his rookie contract. Fine. Even if we accept this flimsy premise (I do not), that still doesn’t justify starting rookie quarterbacks on Day 1. The rookie contract is for four years, with a fifth-year team option. Five years is forever in the NFL! Five years ago, Patrick Mahomes entered the 2018 season with exactly one start under his belt!

It's only a problem if you have a solution. So here is a breakdown of how teams should be handling their rookie quarterbacks:

Year 1 – The rookies sit and learn. Maybe you can steal a late-season start or two.

Year 2 – The now second-year player should have an opportunity to compete for the starting job with the established starter. If the young QB is good enough to earn the job, then great. If not, then you start your veteran and let the kid sit in the oven and cook a bit longer.

One of three things will happen that sophomore year.

First, the veteran may play well and your team may be on track to go to the playoffs. Great! Second, if your team gets off to a slow or sluggish start, you can always inject some life into the season by starting the young backup. Maybe that provides a spark. Even if it doesn’t, you still get the kid some experience. Or third, your team stinks, you obviously aren’t going to the postseason, so you can play your kid and let him get his first taste of life in the NFL.

Year 3 – By now, the young quarterback should be The Guy. Maybe he’s taken some snaps or made some starts in the first two seasons. Maybe not. In Year 3, he should be ready to roll. Some first-year-starter-jitters, some poor decisions and some erratic play should be expected. After all, he’s still a young player.

Now, as long as the young quarterback isn’t a complete and obvious dud, then teams can pick up his fifth-year option. That means that Year 3 would be the first season of a three-year window for the team to determine if he is your franchise quarterback and worth a long-term extension. There is also the option of using the franchise tag on the quarterback to get a sixth year out of him, expanding your window to four years.

Year 4 and Year 5 – Let him play it out and determine what the future holds. If he is a stud, then he likely gets signed to a long-term deal that keeps him the face of the franchise for a decade. If the quarterback proves that he isn’t The Answer, then the team can draft his replacement and rely on their now-veteran signal caller to hold the fort until the next kid develops.

Look, not everyone can be Peyton Manning. In the NFL, you don’t need them to be. Nick Foles, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, and Brad Johnson have all won Super Bowls since the turn of the century. Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Colin Kaepernick, Rex Grossman and Jake Delhomme have all appeared in Super Bowls in the past 20 years. So, why are teams so desperate to anoint their rookie quarterbacks as The Next Big Thing?

HOW WILL THIS YEAR’S ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS FARE?

Carolina Panthers quarterback Andy Dalton stinks. He is a replacement-level quarterback, at best.

That said, there is no universe where Bryce Young is a better quarterback than Dalton right now. So, why should Carolina start their rookie this season?

 Young could/should eventually become better than Dalton. But what is the rush? Why is Carolina going to risk breaking Young – physically or mentally, or both – for this season? What is the upside? To get Young some ‘experience’? Why would you want to give him the experience of getting his ass handed to him?

The same can be said for Davis Mills and Stroud in Houston.

The Texans just went through this will Mills! He was forced into a starting role his rookie season (13 games) and then started 15 games in his second season. Mills has taken his lumps for a pathetic team, toiling behind a terrible offensive line, with no skill position help, playing for two different coaches.

There is absolutely zero doubt in my mind that Mills is a better NFL quarterback today than C.J. Stroud. There is no doubt that the Texans would be a better team this year with Mills under center and Stroud learning. So, why isn’t that the plan? Why should Houston go right back to square one with another inexperienced, overmatched quarterback playing for this bad team when Mills, in Year 3, should be finding the level?

Richardson is a third quarterback that may be heading for disaster.

Indianapolis brought in former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen to mold Richardson into a similar player as Hurts.

The problem is that Hurts ran the ball a lot in Steichen’s offense, posting an average of over 10 rushes per game. If Richardson totes the rock a similar number of times, he is opening himself up to take extra hits and potentially injure himself.

THE RISK OF A ROOKIE QB STARTER DOESN’T OUTWEIGH THE REWARD

Starting a rookie quarterback carries way more risk than NFL coaches and executives seem capable of admitting. Patience is hard! However, looking back at the last quarter-century’s worth of failed quarterback careers, you have to admit that maybe there is a market inefficiency in the way teams go about QB development.

Yeah, it helps to have a superstar at the position that you can plug-and-play. The smarter long-term plan, however, seems to be to take your time and let different players grow at different rates.

Young quarterbacks need to be protected, not exploited. And having a more mature, more stable crop of quarterbacks spread throughout the NFL will make the quality of play better and make it a slightly less volatile betting market.

Robert Ferringo has been one of the best football handicappers in the country and for a full decade from 2010-2019 he banked over +$40,000 in football profit. Robert has produced five of seven winning seasons and 9 of 13 profitable years. Robert expects a MONSTER football season. Robert is looking for another winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!

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