NFL Power Rankings Week 4
When it comes to NFL betting, the pendulum is always swinging.
Attribute it to statistical regression. Blame the fickle nature of The Gambling Gods. Come up with whatever reason helps you sleep at night. But the one certainty in professional football is that the only Absolute Certainty is chaos.
Last week’s wild endings, shocking upsets, bad beats, and unbelievable upsets were only surprising to people that have never watched the NFL. For the rest of us, it was just another day at the office.
Week 1 of the NFL saw a ridiculous run of ‘unders’, with 12 of the 16 openers staying below the total. Naturally, Week 2 saw 10 of 16 games beat the total.
The first two weeks of the season saw exactly zero upsets from underdogs of 6.0 or more. There was still just one last week (Cleveland), but Carolina (+5.5) also shocked Atlanta, the Jets (+6.5) nearly knocked off Tampa Bay, and Detroit (which was at +5 earlier in the week) manhandled Baltimore.
Only one underdog of 6.0+ winning outright through the first three weeks of the season is the polar opposite of last September. For those that don’t remember, underdog of six or more started last season on a ridiculous 17-3 run against the spread with a ton of shocking upsets. There were 26 outright upsets in the month of September overall, causing that month to be the most profitable month of NFL betting for Las Vegas sportsbooks in history.
Of course, the pendulum eventually swung the other way. And when the dust settled on the 2025 season, the story was the tremendous effort by the favorites, who won 71.8 percent of all games played last season. That was the best mark this century and the second-best since the NFL went to 16 games in 1978.
Just when the public thinks they have everything figured out, they are reminded just how little control they actually have.
“That’s why they play with a funny-shaped ball.”
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) – I think that might be the all-time luckiest win in NFL regular season betting history! I’ve seen Hail Mary wins and last-second laterals and all manner of insanity in my time as an NFL bettor. But what makes that Eagles win and cover so remarkable just wasn’t the crazy play – a blocked field goal – but the fact that Jordan Davis absolutely didn’t need to return it for a touchdown! He could’ve gone down at any time and the game would’ve ended with the Eagles winning (but not beating the spread). Truly, truly incredible stuff and will make for an all-time bad beat/lucky win story for everyone that had action on that game.
2. Buffalo Bills (3-0) – Remember: favorites off a Thursday Night Football win have been a fantastic fade over the last several years. As I have been saying, having “extra prep time” after a Thursday game is a myth. Football players are creatures of habit and that Thursday night games throws teams out of their normal routine. Ask the Packers what I’m talking about. I’m not suggesting the Bills are going to lose this week to a lowly Saints team. However, I think that Buffalo will be a little shaky in the first half.
3. Los Angeles Chargers (3-0) – Jim Harbaugh improved his NFL record to 62-29-2 SU and 56-35-2 ATS record. Harbaugh deserves all the credit for that gritty comeback win against Denver. He has infused mental (and physical) toughness into an organization that has been one of the weakest in the NFL. One weakness for this team, though: one-third of their drives this season have ended without a first down. That’s too many three and outs and dating back to the start of last season only the Panthers, Jaguars and Giants have a higher percentage of drives that end without a first down.
4. Green Bay Packers (2-1) – Yes, Jordan Love deserves to get dragged for that inexplicable fourth quarter interception. However, why the hell were the Packers throwing the ball? The score was 10-3 with 3:18 left and it was 3rd-and-3. Run the ball! Make Cleveland burn its last timeout! Even if the Packers didn’t get the first down, the Browns offense had produced 201 yards on 53 plays to that point in the game. There was no way in hell that if Green Bay punted that the Browns would go the length of the field and score a game-tying touchdown. That was massive game mismanagement by Matt LaFleur.
5. Los Angeles Rams (2-1) – Will that loss in Philadelphia linger? The Rams spent two weeks on the East Coast and had to fly home absolutely stunned after giving that game away to the Eagles. Will that have a lingering impact this week against a suddenly dangerous and extremely confident Colts team? The Rams are 13-5 SU and ATS in their last 18 games overall.
6. Baltimore Ravens (1-2) – I don’t care what the numbers say: you can’t be one of the 3-5 best quarterbacks in the NFL and miss as many throws as Lamar Jackson misses. This team can beat any of the bottom 10 teams in this ranking 41-10 but they just make too many mistakes too consistently to be a champion. They have 111 points in three weeks – yet have a losing record. That defense needs to get it figured out, quickly.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-0) – This week is the sixth time that the Bucs and Eagles have met in the last four years. Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU and ATS in those meetings, including a 33-16 home win last September and a 32-9 home win in the 2023-24 playoffs. Philly is 22-4 in its last 26 games – and the Bucs have two of those wins. The Bucs are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog.
8. Detroit Lions (2-1) – Detroit head coach Dan Campbell is 55-30-2 overall in his NFL career, including 15-2-1 ATS against opponents coming off a double-digit win. I love the fact that Campbell and OC John Morton recognized that they were physically dominating the Ravens and simply pounded the ball down their throats. Detroit’s first 12 rushes only yielded 39 yards. They stuck with it and finished with 38 rushes for 224 yards.
9. Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) – This offense is a complete and total mess. The ‘under’ is 7-2 in Kansas City’s last nine games overall. The ‘under’ is 8-15 in their last 23 games and 12-23 in the last 35 games for Patrick Mahomes and Co. This week they are facing the league’s No. 32 ranked defense. But I haven’t seen anything from Kansas City over the last two years to expect that an offensive breakout is coming.
10. Washington Commanders (2-1) – I was joking with a friend on Sunday that I can’t wait to see all the headlines talking about how Dan Quinn’s bloody face “inspired” the Commanders to that win on Sunday. Sure enough, on the New York Times on Sunday night: “How Marcus Mariota and Dan Quinn sparked the Commanders against the Raiders”.
11. Indianapolis Colts (3-0) – Daniel Jones is just the latest example of what I have been saying for years: it takes time for quarterbacks to develop to the level of NFL-caliber starter. He was 24-44-1 with the Giants and 3-13 SU and ATS in his last 16 starts before joining the Colts. He is 3-0 SU and ATS now and looks comfortable. This team isn’t a fluke.
12. San Francisco 49ers (3-0) – Another week, another crippling injury. Nick Bosa is out for the year after a third ACL tear. The 49ers are 5-0 SU and ATS over the last 20 years against the Jaguars. That includes blowout wins in 2023 (34-3) and 2021 (30-10) at Jacksonville.
13. Seattle Seahawks (2-1) – Former Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak was cast aside when New Orleans hired Kellen Moore in the offseason. You could tell that it was personal for Kubiak last week against his former employer, as he unleashed an offensive tornado on New Orleans in the first half last week. Seattle rung up 38 points and had the largest halftime scoring margin that the NFL has seen since 2023.
14. Minnesota Vikings (2-1) – It is amazing how Brian Flores’ defense completely confounds opposing offenses. That is now three straight weeks that I have seen quarterbacks pee down their legs due to Minnesota’s unique defensive approach. Even in their loss to Atlanta, the Vikings only allowed 108 passing yards. I think Minnesota is going to chew up Aaron Rodgers this week in Pittsburgh.
15. Denver Broncos (1-2) – I know it’s too early to call it, but I think that Bo Nix kind of sucks. He’s like a worse version of Kyler Murray, and Murray is only a fringe NFL starter. Sean Payton keeps dumbing down the offense for Nix but there is just nothing scary about this attack. Denver only gained nine first downs last week (to 29 for the Chargers) and Denver’s first touchdown came on a blown coverage. These guys are just bad on that side of the ball. Sean Payton is now 41-27 ATS in games off a loss, including 39-20 ATS when his team owns a worse record than its opponent.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) – The Jaguars have to be kicking themselves for letting that Week 2 game get away from them. Jacksonville is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games against NFC opponents and they are 15-39 ATS in their last 54 games against teams from the opposing conference.
17. Houston Texans (0-3) – Wait: so C.J. Stroud ISN’T The Next Big Thing? I’ve said it before and I will say it again: I have no idea why the Texans got rid of Bobby Slowik. New offensive coordinator Nick Caley has never been an OC at any level. Since 2017 he’s been a tight end coach in New England and with the Rams. The guy looks like he is in way over his head and Houston has scored just 38 points in three games, going 0-3 ATS and 0-3 against the total.
18. Chicago Bears (1-2) – I mean, I told you so. If you aren’t watching Caleb Williams and seeing the amazing talent then I don’t know what to tell you. The Bears also have to be kicking themselves for letting that Week 1 game get away from them. This team could (and should) be 2-1 right now and in the mix in the NFC North. The Bears have lost 21 of their last 22 road games on Sundays and 3-19 SU on the road in their last 22 overall. Chicago is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games.
19. Arizona Cardinals (2-1) – I have no idea why Arizona is favored this Thursday against Seattle. The Cardinals are 4-18 SU in their last 22 divisional games and they are 1-10-1 SU their last 12 home games against Seattle. The Cardinals are 1-5 SU in their last six Thursday games and just 4-14 SU in their last 18 games on Thursdays.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) – There is no way in hell that Pittsburgh should’ve won that game in New England. The Steelers were outgained by 166 yards and were the beneficiaries of four(!) lost fumbles from the Pats. Pittsburgh has been outgained by an average of 139 yards per game and they are No. 30 in total offense and No. 28 in total defense.
21. Atlanta Falcons (1-2) – Since the start of the 2018 season, teams coming off a shutout loss have gone 9-17 SU in their following game with seven of the 17 losses coming by three points or fewer. The only team to be shutout in back-to-back weeks was Carolina in Week 17 and Week 18 of the 2023 season.
22. Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) – This defense cannot stop anyone. Anyone. At all. Even if you take out cornerback Isaiah Rodgers two defensive touchdowns, the Bengals still allowed Carson Wentz and the Vikings to rack up 34 points on just 352 total yards. It’s going to get worse before it gets better for Cincinnati until they figure things out on that side of the ball.
23. Dallas Cowboys (1-2) – I can’t say enough bad things about this defense. These guys are absolutely clueless and man was I wrong that Matt Eberflus would be a sneaky good coordinator for this new coaching staff. Also, George Pickens and Dak Prescott don’t have anywhere near the same chemistry as Dak and CeeDee Lamb. Losing Lamb for three or four weeks is a crippling blow to this offense, which needs to be otherworldly to compensate for their putrid defense.
24. Las Vegas Raiders (1-2) – You can be all rah-rah and hoot and holler and raise the energy around the building as much as you want, Pete Carroll, but this is what it looks like when you don’t have players. The Raiders roster is lacking competence at some many different levels – wide receiver, offensive line, linebackers, secondary, special teams – that there is just no way they can make up for it with “grit” or whatever else Carroll is selling.
25. New England Patriots (1-2) – The Patriots are now 0-11 straight-up and 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 games after a win.
26. Cleveland Browns (1-2) – Anyone that has ever read anything that I’ve written over the past 25 years knows I think it is the height of stupidity to start a rookie quarterback. That being said, there is no way in hell the Browns should be rolling Joe Flacco out there every week. He is shot. He is beat. He is awful. He’s not accurate. He’s not a smart game manager. He is actively working against his team. That guy should’ve retired like five years ago and Cleveland is squandering what looks like a potential all-time great defense with Flacco under center. The Browns have actually outgained their opponents (Bengals, Ravens, Packers) by an average of 85.7 yards per game this year.
27. New York Jets (0-3) – Those were some sweet dance moves on the sideline from Aaron Glenn after New York’s miraculous field goal block for a touchdown to give the Jets the lead. Besides that blocked kick, the Jets have yet to force a turnover and they are -4 in turnover differential.
28. Miami Dolphins (0-3) – Miami’s defense allowed their opponents to score on the first 10 drives this season. All the focus is on what this team isn’t doing on offense. Their defense is atrocious, though, and they have allowed all three opponents to score 30 or more points. Under Mike McDaniel, Miami is 25-12 SU against teams .500 or below and 3-15 against teams with a winning record. They are facing an 0-3 Jets team this week.
29. Carolina Panthers (1-2) – That shutout was more of a fluke than a signal of a Panthers defensive resurgence. The Panthers were actually outgained by 110 yards in that game. They allowed 334 yards of offense to a Falcons team that couldn’t get out of its own way. Carolina is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games against an AFC opponent.
30. New Orleans Saints (0-3) – This week’s +17 spread in Buffalo is the largest of the season. However, this doesn’t even crack the Top 15 largest spreads in the NFL over the last 25 years. Since 2000, underdogs of 17 or more points have gone 9-6 ATS.
31. Tennessee Titans (0-3) – The Titans bandwagon – and I don’t understand how that was ever a thing this offseason – has crashed in the ditch and caught on fire. Tennessee has lost all three games this year and have been outgained by an average of 113.5 yards per game.
32. New York Giants (0-3) – Guess what: Jaxon Dart is not going to save this team. He’ll make some plays. He’ll make some big throws. But he’s also an unprepared rookie quarterback. The Giants are 4-20 SU in their last 24 games and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games. New York is 3-11 ATS as an underdog and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in September.
Robert Ferringo has posted seven of 10 winning football seasons, including last year thanks to an astounding +10,660 football run last season. Robert banked nearly +40,000 in profit between 2010-2019 for a 10-year average profit of nearly +4,000. He has earned 11 of 16 overall winning years and 69 of 114 winning months while also going 23-9 with his football futures rated 5.0+ and earning 16 of 19 winning Super Bowls. He is a member of the Football Writers Association of America and he is set for another amazing football season.
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