NFL Power Rankings Week 3
You always hear bettors talking about “going against the public”. What they are really talking about is being wary of falling victim to groupthink or mental conformity. When Everyone thinks something about sports betting, that general consensus is usually wrong. Or at least overvalued in the betting market.
There is one thing Everyone is starting to adopt as gospel in the NFL and I think it is completely ridiculous. The common belief is that Caleb Williams is destined to be a bust or that he is somehow responsible for Chicago’s struggles over the past two years.
This is the height of stupidity.
Caleb Williams is going to be awesome. In five years, he will be one of the best players in the league. And if the Bears are ever going to have a legit franchise quarterback, something they’ve never laid claim to in the Super Bowl era, Williams is it.
The Bears have been one of the worst franchises in the NFL over the past 30 years. They are basically a step above groups like the Jets, Browns, Bengals and Jaguars. Chicago’s ownership group sucks. Their front office organization is pitiful. And the Bears have only made the playoffs six times in 30 years. Again: they are awful.
That’s what Williams was drafted into. Williams shouldn’t have played last year for this dysfunctional franchise, as starting a rookie quarterback is always a terrible idea. Instead, Williams started behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. His offensive coordinator was fired after nine games. His head coach was fired after 12.
Somehow, none of those facts made their way into the offseason critique of Williams’ rookie season. Despite the clusterf@#k in Chicago, the first-year signal caller completed 63 percent of his passes for 3,541 yards with 20 touchdowns and, incredibly, just six interceptions. And Williams looked the part, showing high-level athleticism, amazing arm strength, and a host of other top tier traits.
Williams is on his third head coach and third offensive coordinator in just 19 games as a professional. None of Williams’ head coaches had ever been head coaches before. The Bears are 0-2 to start this season, losing those two games to teams that went a combined 29-5 last year. They were just embarrassed 52-21 last week in Detroit. Yet somehow the national dialogue around Williams is still, remarkably, about what he’s NOT doing.
To wit, Minnesota’s J.J. McCarthy won the NFC Offensive Player of the Week award for leading the Vikings to a 27-24 comeback win at Chicago in Week 1. Anyone that watched that game and thinks that McCarthy is ever going to be better than Williams doesn’t know $#!t about football. Williams wasn’t perfect. He missed some throws. He showed a tendency to fire a 120-mile-per-hour fastball when he gets nervous. But Williams also made some big-time throws and flashed the potential that directly led to him being the No. 1 overall pick two years ago.
(In fact, Chicago’s loss to the Vikings was more about the screw-ups of rookie head coach Ben Johnson. Johnson should’ve taken an early field goal instead of turning the ball over on downs. Johnson should’ve run the ball more when Chicago had a commanding lead. Johnson shouldn’t have challenged a fumble that cost his team a second half timeout. And Johnson’s decision to kick the ball off instead of out of bounds in the final 2:02 has already been scrutinized to death.)
Look, it seems ridiculous to keep saying this because it is so obvious, but here goes anyway: IT TAKES TIME FOR YOUNG QUARTERBACKS TO DEVELOP. Period. End of sentence.
Josh Allen is generally considered the best player on the planet. He is the defending MVP and has finished in the Top 5 in MVP voting each of the past three years. Guess what: Allen made one Pro Bowl in his first four years. He was 15-12 in his first two years as a starter. As recently as 2023 he had over 20 turnovers in a season. The point is: it took time for Allen to become a superstar.
And it is going to take time for Williams. But mark my words: Williams is going to be one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. And it is going to happen sooner rather than later. Anyone suggesting otherwise is an idiot. Bet against that at your own risk.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Buffalo Bills (2-0) – Buffalo has now scored 30 or more points in 12 of their 19 games since Joe Brady has taken over as offensive coordinator. The Bills are 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 games in September and have won six straight against the Dolphins. Only two of those six wins came by more than a touchdown.
2. Baltimore Ravens (1-1) – Lamar Jackson is 24-2 straight up against teams from the NFC and the Ravens have won 13 of 14 interconference games. The Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on Monday Night Football and have won 12 of their last 16 games under the Monday night lights.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) – The Eagles have now won 18 of their last 19 games overall and they are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 overall. The Eagles have absolutely dominated the Rams. Philadelphia is 10-2 in their last 12 games against Los Angeles and they are 16-5 SU and ATS in their last 21 meetings with the Rams.
4. Green Bay Packers (2-0) – Sportsbooks are stuck trying to stem the tide of the Packers bandwagon. Over 75 percent of all bets in the Packers-Browns game this Sunday have come in on Green Bay, forcing the books to move that number from an open of 7.0 to a current line of 8.5. I wouldn’t be surprised if that number continues to climb on a Green Bay side that is on a 7-3 ATS run. The Packers are 18-6 SU in their last 24 games in September.
5. Los Angeles Chargers (2-0) – The Chargers only gave the ball away nine times in 17 regular season games last year. They are yet to turn the ball over this season in two games. Also, Justin Herbert is going to get injured if he continues to be so aggressive running the football. He already has 16 carries in two weeks. For his career he has averaged 3.8 rushes per game and last year’s 4.1 runs per outing was the highest number of his career. Why leave him in to do that tush push near their own goal line when they were trying to run the clock out in the first half? Stuff like that adds up.
6. Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) – Here is another team that should be aggressively exploring a trade for Tyreek Hill. It makes too much sense not to. Kansas City is desperate for offensive punch. He knows the franchise and system and Chiefs Kingdom already proved that it is fine with the fact that Hill is a scumbag.
7. Los Angeles Rams (2-0) – The Rams played in Tennessee on Sunday. Instead of flying back to Los Angeles only to head east again this week to face the Eagles, the Rams are flying directly to Philadelphia and will practice and prepare in Pennsylvania. Los Angeles is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games and they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. They also have revenge for their playoff loss in Philly last January.
8. Detroit Lions (1-1) – Dropping the hammer on former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and the hapless Bears felt a little desperate. The Lions, up 45-21 with eight minutes to play, had a 4th-and-4 from the Chicago 4-yard-line. A field goal would’ve put them up four scores and ended the game. Instead, the Lions went for it and punches in another touchdown. That’s bad karma. The Lions are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0) – What do I always say: win on Monday, lose on Sunday. Tampa Bay could easily be 0-2 right now. They aren’t because of the sheer force of will of Baker Mayfield, who has become one of the league’s best quarterbacks. Tampa Bay is 1-12 SU and 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games in Week 3. The Bucs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against AFC opposition.
10. Washington Commanders (1-1) – Jayden Daniels’ knee injury is obviously garnering all the attention this week. And rightfully so. But Washington has been crushed by injuries the first 10 days of the season. Austin Ekeler and Deatrich Wise are both out for the year and both Noah Brown and John Bates are out with hamstring injuries.
11. Houston Texans (0-2) – Since 2002, 112 squads have started the season with three straight defeats. The 2018 Texans are the only one that managed to make it to the postseason. Last year the nine teams that started the year 0-2 went 6-3 SU and ATS in Week 3 and three of those 0-2 starters (Ravens, Rams, Broncos) made the playoffs. Houston has won 12 of 14 against the Jaguars and are 11-2 SU in Jacksonville.
12. San Francisco 49ers (2-0) – Two more offensive contributors for the 49ers went down this week, with Kyle Juszczyk and Ben Bartch both getting injured. The Niners are 25-9 SU in their last 34 home games but are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 in Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers are just 3-7 SU in their last 10 home games against Arizona.
13. Seattle Seahawks (1-1) – I can’t say that I was that impressed with Seattle in its win over Pittsburgh last week. That game was a lot more about what the Steelers did to lose the game – Aaron Rodgers sucking, dumb special teams mistakes, poor defense – than it was about what the Seahawks did to win it. Sam Darnold is still a turnover machine. But Klint Kubiak’s scheme is still excellent and he will be looking to pick apart his former team this Sunday.
14. Minnesota Vikings (1-1) – “Ankle injury.” Hahahahaha. J.J. McCarthy absolutely sucks. I guarantee that Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings coaching staff watched the tape of Sunday night’s game on Monday and were like, “Yeah, this guy isn’t an NFL quarterback. We can’t send him out there again.” Look for Carson Wentz to have plenty of success against Cincinnati’s atrocious defense next week. But there’s a reason this guy is with his sixth different team in six years. The ‘under’ is 9-2 in Minnesota’s last 11 games against an NFC opponent.
15. Denver Broncos (1-1) – Yes, that was a terrible beat for anyone that was backing Denver last Sunday. However, why the hell was anyone even trying to block a 60-yard field goal? Between 1960-2009, kickers went 4-for-56 (7%) on kicks from 60+ yards. Since 2010, kickers are 36-for-116 (31%) from that distance.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) – There is still just too much sloppiness on both sides of the ball. Jacksonville’s poor red zone execution – including Brian Thomas’ horrible drop on that 4th-and-5 play that would’ve ended the game – doomed them from a 2-0 start. Jacksonville is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 division games but they have lost six straight home games to the Texans. They are also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against Houston.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) – Cincinnati is 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games against NFC opponents. The Bengals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on the road and I think that Jake Browning is going to be better and more stable with a week of practice under his belt. When Browning filled in for Glass Joe Burrow in 2023, he averaged just 6.1 air yards per attempt (last in the NFL). If you’re looking for potential prop bets, I’d look at the receptions for Bengals wideouts rather than their receiving yards.
18. Dallas Cowboys (1-1) – This week’s game in Chicago features Matt Eberflus going against his old team. Dallas’ pass defense was a horror show last week against the Giants. We will see if Eberflus has any insights into how to attack Caleb Williams.
19. Indianapolis Colts (2-0) – Houston is reeling a bit after two close losses. The Titans are terrible. And the Jaguars are still sketchy as hell. The door is wide open for the Colts, who became the first team in NFL history to open the season with 10 straight possessions ending in points. The Colts still haven’t punted yet and it’s not a fluke. Jonathan Taylor and the running game have been excellent and the Colts’ receiver talent is underrated. The Colts are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games as a favorite and 165-55-1 SU in that role long term. Indianapolis is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games at Tennessee and 32-12 SU in their last 44 games against the Titans.
20. Arizona Cardinals (2-0) – Arizona is 2-0 straight up but 0-2 ATS in its two games this year, which isn’t a great sign. They’ve played two of the worst teams in the league and have been less than impressive in victory, making enough dumb mistakes to have lost both games. Don’t fall in love with this team; they simply aren’t that good. Arizona swept the 49ers last year. They had lost four straight by an average of 22 points per game in the two seasons prior to that.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) – There is plenty of blame to go around for Pittsburgh’s second half collapse against Seattle last week. I can’t say enough bad things about Aaron Rodgers. He is a dried-out husk of a player and among the league’s worst quarterbacks now. The more shocking development is the collapse of the NFL’s highest paid defense. The Steelers have allowed 63 points in two games this year. They also closed out last season surrendering 27 or more points in five of their last seven games and have yielded 26.9 points per game over their last nine.
22. Atlanta Falcons (1-1) – Before we all climb onto the Falcons bandwagon, let’s all remember that all they did was beat inept J.J. McCarthy. The Falcons are just 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Carolina and Atlanta have split the last 10 meetings and the favorite is just 2-8 ATS in those games. I also think that Xavier Watts is going to end up being one of the steals of the 2025 NFL draft. That guy is a baller.
23. Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) – The Raiders have been moving the ball way too well to only have 29 points in through two games. Their 20.6 yards per point is worst in the league and they are the only NFL team with back-to-back games with a OYPP of 20 or more. Their three turnovers were cripplers against the Chargers and I think Las Vegas will have some success moving the ball against the Commanders this Sunday.
24. Chicago Bears (0-2) – For all the talk about Williams and the Bears offense, let’s be real: Chicago’s defense has allowed 73 points in its last five quarters. I don’t know how they are going to slow down a Cowboys attack that has looked razor sharp through the first two weeks of the season. The Bears have lost six straight home games and they are now 13-37 SU in their last 50 games overall.
25. New England Patriots (1-1) – Foxboro has been a haven for visiting teams over the last few years. New England is a pathetic 4-17 SU and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games at home. The Patriots have won six of seven over the Steelers, including road wins in 2022 and 2023.
26. New York Jets (0-2) – The Jets are just 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games against NFC opponents, including 2-12 ATS in their last 14. New York is also just 4-10 ATS on the road and could struggle with the heat and humidity down in Florida this week.
27. Cleveland Browns (0-2) – Ignore the score last week: Cleveland’s defense has been awesome through two weeks. The Browns held Burrow and Cincinnati to just 141 yards in Week 1 and then only allowed 243 to the Ravens last week. Their 6.6 defensive yards per point is whole unsustainable and I think this is a decent buy low option as an underdog moving forward.
28. Miami Dolphins (0-2) – Miami is 4-10 SU in its last 14 Thursday Night Football games and just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on a short week. The Dolphins are just 5-19 SU and 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games against teams that are .500 or better. I think if this team gets down early in Buffalo they are going to roll over and quit.
29. New Orleans Saints (0-2) – I thought that the Saints would battle and that’s exactly what they’ve done through the first two weeks of the season. Spencer Rattler has looked decent. He still misses too many simple throws. But he’s not turning the ball over and he’s not afraid to use his legs to make plays. The Saints are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games and just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
30. Tennessee Titans (0-2) – The Titans lead the NFL in total penalties, with 28 through two games (23 accepted penalties against them). A lot of people bought into the Titans as a team ready to spring a potential upset last week. The same people that got burned in their blowout loss to the Rams seem ready get right back on the Titans this week. Tennessee is 2-13 SU in its last 15 divisional games and they are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against an AFC South opponent.
31. New York Giants (0-2) – Do you know who is No. 2 in the league in total penalties? The Giants. They’ve had 27 flags thrown against them and 20 accepted penalties. Yes, that game with the Cowboys was the most entertaining of the weekend and featured a ton of big plays. But that was The Loser Bowl. Both of those teams played like idiots and I think that this poorly coached Giants team is ready to get embarrassed on national television – again – this weekend.
32. Carolina Panthers (0-2) – Starting guard Robert Hunt suffered a torn biceps and center Austin Corbett tore his MCL last week, with both veteran starting linemen going on injured reserve. That’s not going to help against a suddenly spry Falcons pass rush. Also, 2024 first round pick Xavier Legette is off to a brutal start. He has turned 15 targets into just four catches and eight total yards in two games. The Panthers are just 10-24 SU in their last 34 divisional games but they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.
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