NFL Power Rankings Week 6
Jacksonville’s final play of the game - Trevor Lawrence falling down then scoring the game-winning touchdown – kind of summed the NFL weekend.
The 49ers backups scored the biggest upset of the season to date. Jerry Jones was flipping off fans. Emari Demercado pulled off his best Adonai Mitchell impression and made me question if the NFL is involved in a Chad Powers crossover conspiracy. The Ravens got run over, the Bucs-Seahawks had a classic shootout, and Mark Sanchez reminded everyone of the age-old adage: “handle your liquor or get stabbed”.
It was a wild week. And the biggest takeaways for me was the number of comeback wins we saw in Week 5.
The Broncos, Saints, Titans, Panthers Commanders and Jaguars all overcame double-digit deficits to win games outright. According to the Associated Press, that was just the sixth time in NFL history that six teams came back from 10 or more down to win games in the same week. It was the first time it happened since 2013.
No lead is safe. No bet is every won until the final whistle. And every weekend is a fresh mix of WTF.
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Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Detroit Lions (4-1) – I am a little wary of putting the Lions here. They are on a 4-0 SU and ATS run and have outscored their opponents 161-85 during that stretch. That’s awesome. Then you consider that their opponents – Bengals, Browns, Ravens and Bears – are a combined 6-13 straight up and it takes a little bloom off the rose. Still, you’re kind of an idiot for betting against Dan Campbell at this point, so I’ll go with the Lions at the top spot.
2. Buffalo Bills (4-1) – Solid reverse line movement going against the Bills in their Monday night trip to Atlanta this week. Buffalo was a 5.0-point favorite on the early line and has been taking around 70 percent of the action in this one. The number has dropped to 3.5. The ‘over’ is 8-3 in Buffalo’s last 11 road games on Monday Night Football.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) – These guys have been leaking oil for a month. It was only a matter of time before it caught up to them. Remember: the same thing happened to them in 2023 after they lost both coordinators. The Eagles started 10-1 and then went in the tank, going 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS down the stretch. Be wary.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) – Special teams. The third phase killed Kansas City on Monday. Two holding calls negated two huge returns that would’ve set the Chiefs up for points on the board. And a kickoff out of bounds after taking a 28-24 lead gave the Jaguars a huge boost on their game-winning drive. K.C.’s close game regression is in full swing.
5. Los Angeles Rams (3-2) – If Adonai Mitchell hadn’t gifted them a win two weeks ago the Rams would be on a three-game losing streak. Los Angeles has lost back-to-back games (or had a longer losing streak) eight times since the start of 2021. They’ve lost back-to-back games every season they’ve had Sean McVay as a head coach.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1) – DraftKings still has Baker Mayfield at +1100 to win the Most Valuable Player award this year. I’ve seen other books with him around +800 to +1000. I don’t think there is any doubt who has been the league’s best player through five weeks and at around 10-to-1 he is absolutely worth a wager. Mayfield’s performance should improve as he gets more of his key weapons back and healthy.
7. Green Bay Packers (2-1-1) – This is the second time this year we’ve had an NFL favorite of 14 or more. The Bills did not cover as 15-point chalk against the Saints last week. We’ll see how Green Bay handles it coming out of a bye week. “Coming out of the bye” is an overrated handicapping angle. The Packers are 4-5 after the bye under Matt LaFleur with a -15-point differential. Discounting the playoffs, Green Bay is just 3-3 after a bye with a -31-point differential and two losses of 28 or more points.
8. Indianapolis Colts (4-1) – The Colts are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games as a favorite and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. Indianapolis is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven game against NFC opponents and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 interconference matchups.
9. Denver Broncos (3-2) – Since getting beat up on the ground by the Colts and Chargers, Denver’s rush defense has been overwhelming. They’ve allowed just 100 rushing yards on 26 carries over the last two weeks. They are going to have to continue that solid play at the point of attack this week if they are going to blow out a Jets team that is going to pound the ball on the ground for four quarters.
10. San Francisco 49ers (4-1) – The 49ers were 6.5-point favorites when they went to Tampa Bay last November. San Francisco dominated the Bucs, outgaining them 413-215, but needed a Jake Moody 44-yard field goal at the buzzer to escape with a 23-20 win. San Fran is probably better now than they were then but the spread has shifted 9.5 points.
11. Los Angeles Chargers (3-2) – As expected, L.A.’s offense was a train wreck without Joe Alt. I expect Jim Harbaugh to get back to basics this week against Miami, though, and I’ll be stunned if they don’t run the ball at least 40 times. The Chargers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games and 13-5 ATS when they are favored. Los Angeles is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games against AFC opposition.
12. Seattle Seahawks (3-2) – I think we can all agree that the Houston Oilers have the best throwback uniforms. The Rams and Eagles throwbacks are underrated. Tampa Bay’s creamsicles are classic. I kind of think that Seattle’s old uniforms (the ones they wore last Sunday) might be No. 2 on my list, though. Those things are awesome and I love that helmet.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1) – The biggest hidden play of that game on Monday came on 3rd-and-15 from the Jacksonville 25 with nine minutes to play in the second quarter. That pass interference call – Justin Watson slipped and grabbed Brian Thomas – changed the entire trajectory of that game. If the Chiefs get the ball back right then that game is headed for blowout territory.
14. Washington Commanders (3-2) – Plenty of focus this week is going to focus on Washington’s Hail Mary to beat the Bears last year. Washington really dominated that game, though, outgaining Chicago 481-307. This is the third year in a row that Washington is hosting the Bears and the fourth straight season these two have played. Washington is 7-2 SU and ATS in this series dating back to 2007.
15. Houston Texans (2-3) – The Texans have allowed just 61 points through five games, by far the fewest in the NFL. Houston has only surrendered eight touchdowns, second fewest in the league. I think that this is the best defense in the NFL right now thanks to the NFL’s best secondary.
16. Baltimore Ravens (1-4) – Through five games, the Ravens are on pace to allow 602 points this season. That would be the worst of all time, surpassing the 534 points that Carolina allowed last year. The record for most points allowed in a 16-game season was 533, set by the Baltimore Colts in 1981. The ‘over’ is 25-8 in Baltimore’s last 33 regular season games dating back to 2023.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) – The Steelers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. Pittsburgh is 52-13-1 SU in its last 66 games against the Browns and they are 21-1 SU in their last 22 games at home against Cleveland. Pittsburgh is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 divisional games and they really have a great opportunity to take control of the AFC North with a win on Sunday.
18. Atlanta Falcons (2-2) – The Falcons have won seven of their last eight Monday Night Football games. However, they are just 2-5 ATS as a home underdog on Monday Night Football and just 1-9 ATS as a home underdog against AFC opponents.
19. Minnesota Vikings (3-2) – This team absolutely should not go back to J.J. McCarthy. But I really hope that they do. I’m going to bet against Minnesota any time that guy is under center. The Vikings are +3 at home on the look ahead line to next week’s game against the Eagles.
20. New England Patriots (3-2) – Stefon Diggs was an animal on Sunday night. The best play of his 10-catch, 160-yard night was probably that 32-yard catch in the middle of the third quarter on a broken play. Drake Maye was flushed out of the pocket and Diggs had to ad lib up the field. Instead of a 3rd-and-long, the Patriots were set up first-and-goal from the 4 and scored a touchdown on the next play to go up 13-10. After they picked off Josh Allen on the next drive they scored again to take control of the game 20-10.
21. Dallas Cowboys (2-2-1) – Dak Prescott is currently posted at +250 to win Comeback Player of the Year. I think he and Daniel Jones (+600) both offer the best value and I’ll be surprised if the award doesn’t go to one of those two. Dallas is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games against the Panthers and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in Carolina. Dallas is just 1-5 ATS as a favorite.
22. Chicago Bears (2-2) – Look, all Ben Johnson has done since this summer is piss and moan and bitch about how sloppy the Bears execution has been. They just had two weeks to iron out the kinks. I’m sorry, but if they come out next Monday and are still taking procedural penalties and are sloppy on offense then it is time for the finger to be pointed at the rookie head coach and his staff.
23. Arizona Cardinals (2-3) – How? How is it even possible for Emari Demercado to do that just one week after Adonai Mitchell? How? Arizona is just 5-17 SU in its last 22 road games but they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 away from home. The Cardinals are 8-27 SU as an underdog but a solid 10-3 ATS the last 13 times they’ve been catching points.
24. Cleveland Browns (1-4) – Wow, did the schedule makers screw the Browns. First they had to play at Detroit. Then they had to fly to London. Now they are on the road for a third week in a row, playing at the Steelers. Not only is it brutal that they have to play in Pittsburgh but the Steelers are also off a bye. The Browns are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 road games and they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in Pittsburgh.
25. Carolina Panthers (2-3) – That was coaching malpractice from Dave Canales. The Panthers won last week, but Bryce Young sucks and Canales is far from an offensive mastermind. Carolina was averaging 8.2 yards per run. Rico Dowdle was averaging 10 yards per rush for more of the game. Yet, Carolina called 29 designed runs to 35 passing drop-backs. When you add in how good Tampa Bay has been offensively since Canales left it’s fair to question this guy’s ability.
26. Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) – It doesn’t matter who the quarterback is this week. If it’s not Joe Burrow then the Bengals won’t be competitive. Cincinnati’s secondary cannot cover anyone. The defense is allowing 31.2 points per game. They can’t run the ball – at all – at 57 rushing yards per game. This is just a terrible football team. And while Browning hasn’t played well he is still this team’s best option.
27. New Orleans Saints (1-4) – Kool-Aid McKinstry will get plaudits for his two-interception game. However, that first interception was actually a terrible play. New York had 4th and 6 from the 38. McKinstry should’ve knocked the ball down and gave his offense the ball out near midfield. Instead, he picked off the pass and went out of bounds at the 5. He’s young. The veteran move is to just knock that one down.
28. Las Vegas Raiders (1-4) – It’s not often that a team gets embarrassed 40-6 and then installed as a six-point favorite the following week. Not surprisingly, the market is taking a clear position against Vegas this week. They opened at 6.0 but that game has already been bet down to 4.5. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it get down around 3.5 or 3.0 by kickoff. The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.
29. Miami Dolphins (1-4) – I called Miami’s run defense “gutless” last week. I feel that’s pretty apt. Miami has allowed 871 rushing yards through five games, tied for the most in franchise history and one of the 60 highest totals in the last 50 years. The only other times Miami allowed over 800 rushing yards in the first five games of the year were 2007 (1-15) and 2019 (5-11). So don’t expect a turnaround.
30. New York Giants (1-4) – Wait: so Jaxon Dart isn’t the next Phil Simms? Dart is going to be a turnover machine for the rest of this season. Seventeen of Dart’s 26 completions went to running backs and tight ends and any time he wound up to throw the ball downfield I was just waiting for something bad to happen. Dart throws a nice ball. But he has a long way to go before he can be a competent NFL quarterback.
31. Tennessee Titans (1-4) – I’m not putting too much stock in last week’s win, which may end up being the flukiest of the NFL season thanks to Demercado’s stupidity and Tyler Lockett’s bizarre, fumbled interception recovery in the end zone. The Titans are still a pathetic 4-18 ATS in their last 22 games overall and 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games.
32. New York Jets (0-5) – Because there is no end to the humiliation that this organization can wreak on itself, the Jets earned a unique place in NFL history after last week’s 37-22 loss (that was nowhere near that close). The Jets are the first team in league history to fail to produce a takeaway through the first five games of the season. In the 17 games since Robert Saleh’s firing, the Jets have allowed 28.0 points per game and have gone 13-4 against the total.
Robert Ferringo has posted seven of 10 winning football seasons, including last year thanks to an astounding +10,660 football run last season. Robert banked nearly +40,000 in profit between 2010-2019 for a 10-year average profit of nearly +4,000. He has earned 11 of 16 overall winning years and 69 of 114 winning months while also going 23-9 with his football futures rated 5.0+ and earning 16 of 19 winning Super Bowls. He is a member of the Football Writers Association of America and he is set for another amazing football season.
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