NFL Power Rankings Week 1
My soul is imbued with myriad emotions at the start of every professional football betting season.
Hope is never one of them.
I’ve been at it too long to put my faith in Hope. Hope is weakness. Hope is a child-like belief that good will conquer evil, that both Santa and justice are real, and that the future is pregnant with better days. It’s foolishness – insanity even – to challenge the Gambling Gods with anything as flimsy as Hope.
No, right now Hope is piss-soaked and passed out on the curb in front of some Reno strip joint, with hobos rifling through its pockets. And if the future is pregnant at all it is only because Fate slipped a Rohypnol into a vodka tonic.
I don’t feel hopeful. I feel honest.
One of the great joys of football betting is the honesty of it. Someone wins. Someone loses. Someone is right. Someone is wrong. I don’t care what people think is going to happen. All that matters is what does happen. Your arrogance and bravery for dancing to the NFL’s symphony of savagery will either rewarded with riches or replaced with regret and shame. There’s nothing in between. There’s a purity in that.
Truth is one of the few real weapons that we have in this messy business. It is a necessity if you want to endure the six-month orgy of gambling, drinking and brutality that is the NFL season. Truth gives us the power to stare directly into a sun of broken quarterbacks, blown coverages, and moments of athletic absurdity that turn analysis into ash. Football betting exists to extract your soul, your sanity, and your bankroll. The Laws of Mathematics will conspire with The Gambling Gods to create new ways to mock and ridicule you. It won’t make sense, the seeming randomness. And the NFL gauntlet will test every bit of your resolve while driving you through bouts of derangement and ecstasy, depression and exhilaration.
If you can’t be honest with yourself about that or enter this thinking otherwise, you’ve already lost. This is the Truth, ugly and inconvenient.
So how do we cope? Well, embrace the chaos. Accept the anarchy. Absorb those feelings of fear, rage, elation, confusion and delight. Let the flood of emotions that accompany this glorious NFL season become a tornado and place yourself at the center, calm and open-minded. It may not bring you protection. But it might help you find peace.
Truth is in short supply these days. So, while I can’t promise you riches or salvation, I can vow to always speak to you candidly. I owe you that much. After all, we both know the score here. You came for the money. You’ll stay for the violence. And at the end of it all we’ll both know ourselves and each other a little better.
If NFL betting is battle, let Honesty be your sword.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) – I like to go with the defending champions as the default No. 1 heading into the NFL season. You have to beat the king to be the king. And make no mistake, the Eagles may be carving out their own place in what was supposed to be The Era of The Chiefs. Kick out one weird month at the end of the 2023 season (when Philly went 1-6) and over the last three years the Eagles are 45-8 straight up in the regular season and playoffs combined, one bad half away from having two Super Bowls during that epic stretch.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) – You don’t need me to tell you all the numbers screaming regression from these Kansas City banshees. Thanks to a 10-0 record in close games, the Chiefs beat their Pythagorean Wins Expectation by nearly five full games last year, one of the largest overachievements in the 25 years I’ve tracked. That said, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are an all-time combination. And like other all-time greats (Brady, Manning and Rodgers), Mahomes seems immune to the constraints of mathematical regression. Bet against this group at your own peril.
3. Buffalo Bills (0-0) – This feels like a now-or-never season for a franchise that is as desperate for a title as any in the world. Buffalo’s roster is loaded on both sides of the ball. They have postseason experience, no clear weaknesses, and reigning MVP Josh Allen. Buffalo also has the easiest path to the No. 1 seed in the AFC, as the Chiefs and Ravens are both in brutal divisions and face more difficult slates. If the Bills can get the top seed, a bye, and home games in their own stadium (which is set to be demolished after this year) then the path back to the Super Bowl is as clear as it is ever going to get.
4. Baltimore Ravens (0-0) – The Ravens were the healthiest team in the NFL last year and the 2024 version was one of the healthiest in the past decade. We know that injuries are erratic and fluky from year to year so expect some significant ones to crop up. Baltimore has the obvious revenge angle after their wrenching loss at Buffalo in the playoffs. The Ravens would also like to avenge their primetime season opening loss to the Chiefs last year. Baltimore is just 1-3 in their last four games against the Bills.
5. Houston Texans (0-0) – I feel like a lot of people are bailing on the Texans this year because they feel a bit burned by last season. Houston – the NFL playoffs’ NPC – was supposed to become a true challenger to the top tier of the AFC. And...didn’t. However, this still has the potential to be a Top 5 defense (again) and they can’t possibly have the same level of issues (wide receiver injuries, offensive linemen hating each other, etc.) that waylaid them last season. If C.J. Stroud is as good as everyone thought it was his rookie year then this team should take a step forward.
6. Detroit Lions (0-0) – Despite this lofty ranking, I think the arrow is pointing down on this group. I think the loss of Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn are going to be huge (see: 2023 Eagles) and I think that they are one Penei Sewell injury away from the offensive line going from a strength to a weakness. The last time the Lions had four straight winning seasons was from 1969-1972 and the last time they made the playoffs three straight years was from 1952-1954. They've never won 10+ games in three straight seasons in nearly 100 years of football. I think the Lions are at their peak and there's only one way to go from here.
7. Green Bay Packers (0-0) – Green Bay has won its home opener in 17 of the last 18 years, going 14-4 ATS in those games. That includes a current streak of 11 straight home-opening wins. I don’t expect Micah Parsons to make a big impact on the field. However, you have to think that his addition has given a jolt to the locker room. His acquisition sends a clear message to the Packers players that the front office feels this roster is ready to win big, now.
8. Denver Broncos (0-0) – As I look at the top half of my rankings, I feel like this has the potential to be the ranking that I was most wrong about. (Last year I had Miami No. 8; this feels similar.) I have done a great job avoiding Hype Teams and Everybody’s Sleeper Teams this offseason. Yet there is something about Denver I am buying into. It could be their potentially dominating defense. Or maybe I will always have a love for Sean Payton thanks to all the money his Saints teams made me. Whatever it is, I’m clinging to the roof of the already full bandwagon.
9. Minnesota Vikings (0-0) – Rookie quarterbacks got off a slick 14-6 ATS start to last season, including a 6-0 ATS mark as favorites. This week’s line at Chicago is one of the week’s biggest movers, with Minnesota going from small underdog (+1.5) to small favorite (-1.5) despite majority action on Chicago. The Vikings area dominating 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in the Chicago series dating back to 2020.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) – Tampa Bay has become the Texans of the NFC: the best and most complete team in a terrible division. Despite their NFC South dominance, Tampa Bay has lost four of their last five games against the Falcons (including getting swept last fall). The favorite is 6-3 ATS in this series but the Bucs are only 1-5 ATS against their rivals.
11. Washington Commanders (0-0) – The setup for the Commanders is a carbon copy of Houston’s last season. Will they respond the same way? Houston’s hype train went off the rails due to some unlucky breaks (in Tank Dell’s case, literally). It will be interesting to see if Washington can avoid the same pitfalls. The Commanders were 8-1 in close games last year and both their offensive and defensive yards per point (as well as their fourth down conversion rate) are screaming for regression.
12. Los Angeles Rams (0-0) – What is going to happen to Matt Stafford when he takes that first hit? And how many throws is he going to bail out of or throw into traffic to avoid The Big Hit? I am not nearly as high on Rams, a team that beat their Pythagorean wins by two full games last season, as a lot of people. Be wary of getting pinned against the public regarding the L.A. hype.
13. Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) – Jim Harbaugh is 5-0 ATS in openers in the NFL. The Chargers have lost seven straight in this series, but four of those seven losses have been by a field goal or less and another came in overtime. In fact, eight of the past 10 meetings between these two teams have been decided by a touchdown or less.
14. Seattle Seahawks (0-0) – Divisional home underdogs in Week 1 are 23-7 ATS since 2010. I think that Sam Darnold is a turnover-prone stiff. He is the only thing I don’t like about this Seattle team right now. I love offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and Mike Macdonald has the pieces in place for a Top 10 defense. Seattle did have six close wins last season and beat their Pythagorean Wins Expectation by 1.3 games last season so we will see is this team can step forward or if it trips over Darnold’s feet.
15. San Francisco 49ers (0-0) – Yes, the 49ers have the easiest schedule in the NFL. Is it a bit of a red flag that the reason so many people are back on the bandwagon is because they play a bunch of bad teams, though? San Francisco has gone 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against Seattle. They have a cluster injury problem at receiver, though, and I think they are getting a little too much love from the public.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) – These guys became the first team in NFL history to lose 10 games by a single score in one season. So, if everyone is quick to predict negative regression for teams that win a bunch of close games why aren’t they as fast to get behind a team that lost just about every coin-flip situation? Can Jacksonville’s defense improve? That’s it. That’s what is going to define this season. They were No. 31 in total defense last year despite having invested a lot of draft capital and free agency money on that side of the ball. If they figure it out there then this team will be vastly improved from last year’s four-win debacle.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) – This week’s tilt with the Jets may be the worst quarterback revenge game of all time. Aaron Rodgers is heading back to the scene of the crime, facing the Jets franchise and fan base that he tormented from within for the past two seasons. And the Steelers are facing Justin Fields, their starting quarterback at the beginning of last season. I think the first team to 16 points wins and the ‘under’ is 2-5 in the last seven meetings, including last year’s 37-15 Steelers win.
18. Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) – I love Joe Burrow. You love Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow is awesome. There is no way in hell I trust a team with an accidental defense, though. By “accidental defense” I mean a team whose defense gets stops by pure happenstance, usually thanks to opponents’ mistakes rather than getting physical stops. The favorite in the Bengals-Browns series is 5-0 ATS and six straight games in this series have been decided by at least a touchdown.
19. Arizona Cardinals (0-0) – I was fortunate enough to bet Arizona over the summer at -3.5 in Week 1. This number is now 6.5 and I expect it to get to at least -7 by kickoff. You have to ask yourself how much you trust Kyler Murray laying points on the road. Arizona will be a better team and I think they are going to be in the thick of the NFC West race.
20. Chicago Bears (0-0) – Don’t buy into this team. With rare exception, the Bears have been a perennial disappointment for going on 35 years now. This roster is significantly improved and I think that Ben Johnson is the real deal. But Chicago’s schedule is one of the most difficult in the league. While they would probably beat last year’s team by double-digits, don’t look for much improvement in either their win total or their divisional standing. (Of course, it doesn’t help that they are in the best division in football.)
21. Atlanta Falcons (0-0) – Divisional home underdogs in Week 1 are 23-7 ATS since 2010. That is balanced out by the fact that Atlanta is 2-7 ATS in its last nine season openers, including losing at home to the Steelers as a small favorite. I don’t love the fact that Atlanta didn’t play its starters at all in the preseason. We will see if that comes back to bite them with a slow start.
22. Miami Dolphins (0-0) – This is a revenge game for the Dolphins, who lost 16-10 to Indianapolis last year. Miami actually had a 10-point lead in that game despite starting Tyler Huntley. Huntley got injured and the Fins had to turn to Tim Boyle. Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill combined for just two catches and 19 yards in that one and I would pencil them in for 10 times those yardage numbers this weekend. Dolphins are a healthy 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 1.
23. New England Patriots (0-0) – People are a little too high on the Patriots. Mike Vrabel is a massive upgrade as a head coach. The roster is improved. New England’s division, outside of Buffalo, is a joke. I think it is a bit of a red flag, though, that the Patriots, a major “buzz” team this offense, is staring down a reverse line movement in Week 1 against a bleh Raiders team. That spread opened at 3.5 and has come down below the key number of 3.0 despite over 70 percent action on the hosts.
24. Dallas Cowboys (0-0) – All summer I was licking my chops ready to bet ON the Cowboys. I thought they were undervalued. With a healthy Dak Prescott, the addition of George Pickens to compliment CeeDee Lamb, and with a defensive coordinator (Matt Eberflus) that’s never had a bad defense, I had the Cowboys teeming with underdog value. But the vibes around this team are horrible.
25. New York Jets (0-0) – Home underdogs are just 13-29-1 SU in Week 1. The Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine season openers. I think people are giving them way too much credit for looking competent during the preseason. This roster still has holes everywhere – and the Alijah-Vera Tucker injury is massive – and by this point we know what Justin Fields is all about.
26. Las Vegas Raiders (0-0) – Believe it or not, the Raiders have been money in their season opening game over the last 12 years. They are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 Week 1 games, with six outright wins in the last nine years. The Raiders have to come East for the dreaded 10 a.m. PST kickoff. I always feel like that is an impediment to teams coming off a tough game and don’t think it will be an issue for Vegas this weekend.
27. Indianapolis Colts (0-0) – Indy has been by far the worst team in the NFL in Week 1, going 1-13-1 and 2-12-1 ATS in their openers over the last 15 years. They are winless in 11 straight Week 1 games. The Colts 100 percent made the right call going with Daniel Jones and I think he lifts the floor of this team a bit. I don’t know how this team won 17 games over the last two seasons.
28. New York Giants (0-0) – This group is right behind Indy as the worst Week 1 team in the league. The Giants are 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 season opening games. They only lost their two games to the Commanders last year by five and three points and Washington has only beaten New York by more than a touchdown one time so far this decade.
29. Cleveland Browns (0-0) – Stop me if you’ve heard this one: divisional home underdogs in Week 1 are 23-7 ATS since 2010. It sounds odd, but nearly every preseason indicator I track points upwards for the Browns. Pythagorean underachiever, turnover differential, yards per point on offense and defense, injuries and Vegas underachieving are just a few of the things that suggest the Browns could be better than people think. Then I remember that Joe Flacco – a guy that has been washed up for at least six years – under center.
30. Carolina Panthers (0-0) – Carolina has gone ‘under’ its Vegas season win total in six of the past seven years. If you’re waiting for a franchise resurgence I wouldn’t hold your breath. Last year’s defense was (literally) one of the worst in NFL history. Look for major improvement on that side of the ball. Carolina is just 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against AFC opponents.
31. Tennessee Titans (0-0) – Since 2003, No. 1 overall pick quarterbacks making their NFL debut are 1-14-1 and have lost those 14 games by an average of 11.3 points per game. Caleb Williams snapped the losing streak last year with a 24-17 win over Tennessee in a game that found the Bears down 17-0. Visitors always struggle with the altitude in Denver early in the season; we’ll see what type of shape this Titans squad is in on Sunday.
32. New Orleans Saints (0-0) – Over the course of 17 games the Saints will be the worst team in the NFL. They have by far the worst quarterback situation in the league. There’s also zero depth and a bunch of injury-prone or aging players. But in Week 1, at full strength with guys like Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and a healthy offensive line, I don’t think I’m crazy to think the Saints can give people some problems.
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