NFL Power Rankings Week 5
It’s easy to get excited about making your bets when things are going well.
When gamblers are running hot, bets come easy. Preparation doesn’t feel like work. Hours feel like days between games and you can’t wait to get back into the action. When you’re winning you feel like the Smartest Man Alive and everything just flows.
However, like most things in life, success is not determined by how people handle the Good Times. Instead, NFL betting seasons are defined by how you handle the inevitable down periods. How do you handle a terrible week? A bad month? How do you respond when you’ve waited for months for the start of the NFL season – only to fall on your face through its first four weeks?
For seasoned professionals and long-term winners (of which there are few of us) the answer is that you handle both situations exactly the same.
I always say that I’m never as confident as I am coming off a losing weekend and I am never as nervous as I am during a winning streak.
The first month of the season didn’t go the way that a lot of people hoped or expected it to go. The excitement and anticipation of the 2025 NFL season has likely be replaced by anxiety and anger after a slow or poor start for millions of early season losers.
The best advice I can give you is to just take a breath. This season is still a LONG way from over. If you start pressing now you’re going to mentally break before Thanksgiving. Just slow things down. Don’t try to make up for losses you’ve already accrued. Instead, try to simplify things. Take a weekend off if you need to. Start small. From there you’ll be surprised how quickly momentum can build.
I’ve been through more winning and losing streaks than I can count. Handling winning is easy. But handling losing takes a certain mentality. You have to expect down times – without being fatalistic and nihilistic about it – because they are going to come. And when they do don’t fight or struggle or squeeze. Just steer into the skid, get back to basics, and remember to just go one game at a time.
If you’re off to a losing start to the season, I know that “one game at a time” is the last thing that you want to hear. But it’s still my job to say it.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here is Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) – Should we be concerned that the Eagles are averaging just 3.5 yards per carry (No. 29)? They are second in the league in attempts. But Saquon Barkley is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and is on pace for another 386 touches this season after logging nearly 500 last year (regular season and playoff combined). The Eagles are eighth in point differential and 30th in yards per point. Still: they’ve won 20 of 21 straight up and are 16-5 ATS in those games.
2. Buffalo Bills (4-0) – I’m not going to sweat the Bills playing up or down to their competition each week. After watching the Chiefs do it for the past half decade I’ve realized that great teams don’t have to go full throttle every week. In fact, that’s how teams burn themselves out. The Bills have won 13 straight home games and they are 28-6 straight up against AFC East opponents. They are just 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games against the Patriots.
3. Detroit Lions (3-1) – The Lions have outscored their last three opponents by a combined 124-61. Dan Campbell is now 57-31 (64.8%) against the spread in his career as a head coach. No matter how much I talk about Campbell’s ridiculous success at the window I don’t think it is enough. What this guy has done is astounding and it is at the point now where even if I don’t like the number on a Lions game there is no way in hell I’m betting against them.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) – When Patrick Mahomes is locked in like he was on Sunday against the Ravens, the Chiefs are not going to lose. It doesn’t matter who they are playing. It doesn’t matter where they are playing. His ball placement was perfect and it was obvious in the first quarter that the Chiefs were all completely locked in. Andy Reid is now 63-36 ATS when his team has a record of .500 or below.
5. Los Angeles Chargers (3-1) – If Joe Alt misses any significant time then the Chargers really may be screwed. Losing Rashawn Slater for the season was a massive blow. But Alt moving to left tackle was seamless, and I think Alt is already a superstar tackle. Without Alt, Slater and Mekhi Becton (who the Chargers never should’ve trusted to stay healthy), this offensive line is a total mess. The Chargers are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games as a favorite.
6. Los Angeles Rams (3-1) – I will admit that I was not on the overcrowded Rams bandwagon heading into the season. There is no denying their efficiency, though, and Los Angeles is now 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games overall – with one of the losses being last week’s ridiculous beat at Philadelphia. The Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Thursday games and 9-3 SU in their last 12 on Thursday. These guys are better than I thought.
7. Green Bay Packers (2-1-1) – That is now back-to-back late game meltdowns for the Packers, a team that should be riding into its bye week 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. They have two weeks to prepare for a sagging Cincinnati team and I think the Packers will come out of the bye as one of the largest favorites on the board in Week 6.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) – Baker Mayfield couldn’t pull another rabbit out of his hat last week against the Eagles – but he was close. Mayfield is now 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games against a team with a record of .600 or better and he is 11-4 ATS in his last 15 games as an underdog.
9. Baltimore Ravens (1-3) – This is another team being crippled by injuries. Roquan Smith will be out several weeks, Nnamdi Madubuike is done for the season, and Marlon Humphrey is out for a month. Kyle Van Noy, Nate Wiggins and Travis Jones are also all questionable this coming week and Lamar Jackson is dealing with a hamstring strain. The Ravens are 13-2 SU in their last 15 games against the Texans and have won eight straight home games against Houston.
10. Indianapolis Colts (3-1) – I think it is a good sign that this team can play as poorly as it did and nearly beat another contender on the road. Adonai Mitchell literally took 14 points off the board for the Colts – first with his premature celebration fumble and then with a holding penalty to negate a 53-yard touchdown run – and Indy still put up 20 points and should’ve knocked off the Rams. This team is legit.
11. San Francisco 49ers (3-1) – Brock Purdy signed the big contract. It’s his job. Yet, him rushing back from injury reeked of the desperation of a guy that was afraid of losing his job to Mac Jones. The 49ers are 10-3 SU in their last 13 Thursday night road games and 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday night games overall. San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games at Los Angeles and they have won four of their last six road games against the Rams.
12. Seattle Seahawks (3-1) – The Seahawks and the Eagles are the only two teams that are in the top four in the NFL in rushing attempts but the bottom four in the league in yards per rush. Seattle is facing the league’s fifth-best run defense and the second-best defense by yards per carry. Will Seattle stick with its identity against a powerhouse Tampa Bay front four? The Seahawks are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.
13. Denver Broncos (2-2) – Ho-hum. That was an uninspiring blowout of the Bengals on Monday. It’s what Denver needed to do and they did it, so I do give them credit for taking care of business. We will find out more about them this week in Philadelphia. Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against NFC opponents but they are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) – This team just commits too many stupid penalties and turnovers to ever be a top-tier team. Jacksonville has talent. There are first rounders and well-pedigreed players all over the roster on both sides of the ball. But this team is too sloppy to be taken seriously as a sleeper contender in the AFC. The Jaguars are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games on Monday Night Football and 1-4 ATS at home on MNF.
15. Washington Commanders (2-2) – It’s kind of a miracle that the Commanders had four fumbles last week but didn’t lose a single one of them. If you kick out the Green Bay game, Washington is averaging a ridiculous 6.6 yards per carry in their other three games.
16. Houston Texans (1-3) – The Texans have lost six straight games against Baltimore (5-1 ATS) by an average of 21.2 points per game. Houston has played the Ravens three times over the past two years, including in the 2023-24 playoffs, and the Texans have lost 31-2, 34-10 and 25-9. The ‘under’ is 8-0 in the last eight meetings in this series.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) – I can’t believe I was dumb enough to bet against Mike Tomlin as an underdog. He is one of the greatest underdog coaches in the history of professional football. The Steelers defense has generated seven turnovers and 11 sacks over the past two games, both wins. Pittsburgh is just No. 29 in total defense and has been outgained by 122 yards per game. They are 2-2 SU and ATS, though, and it is just Steelers football.
18. Atlanta Falcons (2-2) – The Falcons are a completely different offense at home. They have averaged 26.9 points in their last nine home games and Michael Penix has averaged 31.5 in Atlanta over his four games as a starter. Compare that to an average of just 14.7 points per game on the road over their last six away games (11.0 in two road games this year) and the splits are clear.
19. Minnesota Vikings (2-2) – Favorites overseas have cleaned up, going 41-16 straight up and 37-20 ATS in all international games. The Vikings should have the situational edge this week, staying in the United Kingdom after playing in Ireland last week. However, I don’t see how their offensive line, decimated by injuries, is going to hold up against this overwhelming Cleveland defensive front.
20. New England Patriots (2-2) – It is still amazing to me how the power dynamic in the Bills-Patriots series has shifted over the last several years. The underdog Patriots have covered four straight against Buffalo and the dog is 6-3 ATS in the last nine in this series. This is only the fourth time in 18 meetings (dating back to 2016) that these two have played before Halloween. New England has won all three previous early season matchups.
21. Chicago Bears (2-2) – Ben Johnson is not doing much to help Caleb Williams. In fact, not many Bears are doing much to help their quarterback, with dropped passes and an offensive line that’s committed the most penalties in the NFL. Johnson called just 18 designed runs plays while Williams dropped back over 40 times against the Raiders. Add in a weak defense and this team has a ton of things to work on heading into the bye week.
22. Arizona Cardinals (2-2) – It’s just not working with Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison. Both of Murray’s interceptions on Thursday came on throws in Harrison’s direction. I don’t want to hear about how the first one was Harrison’s fault for “stopping the route”. Murray’s throw wasn’t anywhere close. The Cardinals have covered the spread in seven straight games against AFC opponents.
23. Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1) – Are we sure that we trust Dallas as a road favorite? The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite overall and already got bombed by the Bears as road chalk this year. The Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games but they are 22-6 SU in their last 28 games as a favorite.
24. Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) – Maxx Crosby is the best defensive player in football and I don’t think it is particularly close. He is currently +3000 to win Defensive Player of the Year. I think that’s tremendous value on a guy that simply wreaks havoc every week.
25. Cleveland Browns (1-3) – The Browns made a move this week, adding veteran left tackle Cam Robinson to fill in for Dawand Jones. That should help. But the Browns need Jack Conklin back. It also wouldn’t hurt to go to a more mobile (see: younger) quarterback. The Joe Flacco Experiment did not work. I’m not sure if Kevin Stefanski is just being stubborn at this point but it feels like Stefanski is the only guy that doesn’t realize how awful Flacco is.
26. Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) – The Bengals are showing the stupidity of committing $300 million to two wide receivers. Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins have contributed all of 129 total yards over the past two games, which Cincinnati has lost by a combined 76-13. It also doesn’t help that the Bengals are averaging all of 2.6 yards per rush and 50 rushing yards per game. The defense is horrible. So when the offense is malfunctioning like this the Bengals have zero chance.
27. New York Jets (0-3) – If the Jets hadn’t thrown up all over themselves with 13 penalties and three turnovers they would’ve blasted the Dolphins on Monday. They averaged 7.3 yards per play and 7.0 yards per rush and really moved the ball at will. New York is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games against teams from the NFC and they are 4-19 SU in their last 13 games as an underdog.
28. Miami Dolphins (0-3) – This may be the worst team in the trenches in the entire NFL. Miami’s offensive line is terrible, which neuters all the cheeky plays and flashy skill position talent. And their front seven is gutless. The Fins are allowing 5.1 yards per rush and 36 rushing first downs. These guys are going to continue to get pushed around because they are weak for it counts.
29. Carolina Panthers (1-3) – This week is just the second time in three seasons that the Panthers will dress up as a favorite. Carolina lost 30-14 as a 2.5-point favorite against Dallas last week and the Panthers are 0-10 SU and ATS as a favorite dating back to Week 4 of the 2021 season.
30. New York Giants (1-3) – Everyone is jumping on the Jaxson Dart bandwagon. The Giants are taking over 70 percent of the early action and a majority of the money this week in their game at New Orleans. The public seems more than willing to overlook Dart throwing for all of 111 yards and the Giants rushing 42 times for 161 yards. So if Dart doesn’t throw the ball he’s a major upgrade at quarterback.
31. New Orleans Saints (0-4) – The Saints are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 games against the Giants and have only lost to them once in the Superdome over the past 20 years.
32. Tennessee Titans (0-4) – The knives have come out early for Brian Callahan. I have no defense for why the Titans should keep a coach who is 3-18 and is leading the worst team in football. That said, Callahan has a rookie quarterback, a terrible stable of skill players, and a defense that plays hard but is ranked No. 26 in the league. I mean, what were the expectations for this group?
Robert Ferringo has posted seven of 10 winning football seasons, including last year thanks to an astounding +10,660 football run last season. Robert banked nearly +40,000 in profit between 2010-2019 for a 10-year average profit of nearly +4,000. He has earned 11 of 16 overall winning years and 69 of 114 winning months while also going 23-9 with his football futures rated 5.0+ and earning 16 of 19 winning Super Bowls. He is a member of the Football Writers Association of America and he is set for another amazing football season.
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