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2026 Chicago Bears Predictions with Best Bets and Odds to Win the Super Bowl

by Spencer Toth - 8/2/2026

Chicago Bears predictions Caleb Williams

The Chicago Bears were the comeback kings in 2025, as Caleb Williams pulled off one dramatic victory after another. They had seven total comebacks in the final two minutes to finish with an 11-6 record, including a dramatic 21-6 fourth-quarter rally to beat the Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The Bears are no longer a sleeper in the NFC, as a young core, rising head coach and quarterback combo, and rigid defense have them as a team to watch heading into 2026. Can the Bears replicate their magic from last season, or will it be a dramatic fall from grace for Chicago?

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Chicago Bears Offseason Recap

The Bears weren’t very flashy with skill position signings, but they were crafty in the way they altered their squad in the offseason. On defense, the Bears prioritized their secondary with a new duo down the field. Coby Bryant was brought in from the Super Bowl-winning Seahawks to anchor the secondary after spending his last four years with Seattle. Bryant is one of the best safeties in the league and is very comfortable in single coverage, and will also be a leader for first-round draft pick Dillon Thieneman. Thieneman is a raw talent that is expected to start the season alongside Bryant, but he will be able to make an immediate impact nevertheless. Two excellent safeties will allow the Bears to send more pressure up front, and will elevate the play of all their fellow defenders as a result. 

On offense, the Bears shored up their trenches with trades for center Garrett Bradbury from the New England Patriots and Joe Thuney from the Kansas City Chiefs. Keeping Caleb Williams upright is the top priority for head coach Ben Johnson, who also drafted Logan Jones in the second round for more help. Williams is capable of incredible moments, and a towering yet sturdy offensive line will grant him the time he needs to make big plays. 

It wasn’t all sunshine in the offseason, as the Bears were forced to trade DJ Moore for a second- and fifth-round pick. Moore’s contract left the Bears handcuffed, so they opted to cash in on his strong 2025 season while they still could. That leaves Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III as the top two receivers in Chicago, with Colston Loveland chipping in at tight end. Moore has put up four 1,000-yard seasons in his career, and was the unquestionable WR1 in Chicago. His departure leaves Chicago with a shallow and unproven wide receiver room. 

2026 Chicago Bears Season Expectations

After securing just their second double-digit win total since 2012 last year, the Bears will be expected to make the playoffs once again in 2026. Their young quarterback will only get better with age; Ben Johnson is one of the truly bright minds at head coach, and the Bears have already proven they are capable of winning in the clutch. 

If Chicago is to replicate their wins last year, they need to play better in the first half of games. We saw Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders pull off countless comebacks en route to the 2024 NFC Championship game before completely collapsing to 5-12 the following year. Williams and the Bears leaned on their comeback abilities in 2025, and must avoid falling into the same fate. Their up-tempo playstyle is proven to work, but the Bears have still yet to prove they have the run game needed to chew up the clock with the lead. If one or two plays don’t go the Bears' way last year, the lens this team is seen through would be very different heading into 2026. Maybe Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams will turn into the next great head coach and quarterback duo, but it is too early to say that definitely after one admittedly magical season. 

On the other side of the ball, the Bears shored up their secondary, but I am not convinced they are a top-half team elsewhere. Montez Sweat led the way with 10 sacks and three forced fumbles for Chicago last year, but the rest of the defensive line needs work. Their run defense is subpar, leaving the middle of the field exposed and forcing single coverage down the field. Safety duo Bryant and Thieneman will be confident in that setup, but the Bears will still end up being burned down the field if they have to load up the tackle box to stop the run. 

2026 Chicago Bears Schedule Breakdown

The Bears' schedule is quite difficult no matter how you slice it. Based on last year’s winning percentages, the Bears have the hardest schedule in the league and are in a division with three other legitimate playoff threats. It gets a bit easier when looking at the projected win totals for each team, but the Bears still have the sixth-hardest schedule in the league. This team’s playoff aspirations could be decided in the first month of the year. They open up the season on the road against Carolina, before going home to host the Vikings, Eagles, and Jets. If the Bears don’t go at least 2-2, or potentially even 3-1 in that span, a playoff berth in the NFC North will be very difficult to achieve. In the final seven weeks of the season, Chicago plays the Lions, Jaguars, Dolphins and Bills before three divisional matchups to close out the year. 

2026 Chicago Bears Odds

The Chicago Bears have a 9.5 win total heading into the 2026 season, slightly lower than their 11-5 showing last season. While they are +320 underdogs to win the NFC North behind both the Lions and Packers, they still have reasonable +100 odds to make the playoffs. Ten wins is usually enough for a postseason berth with three Wild Card teams, meaning Chicago could finish second or third in the division and still play meaningful January football. In terms of individual awards, the highlights for Chicago are Caleb Williams with +1500 MVP odds and Dillon Thieneman with +2000 odds to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. 

Looking at the postseason, Chicago has the 16th-best Super Bowl odds at +2500, with +1300 odds to win the NFC. The Bears haven’t won multiple playoff games since their 2006 Super Bowl appearance, but the oddsmakers are giving them a reasonable chance of making a deep playoff run. 

2026 Chicago Bears Season Predictions and Best Bets

Last season, I was all-in on the Bears with +500 odds to win the NFC North as my top pick, and +4000 odds to win the Super Bowl. They were my top team in terms of value across the entire NFL, and it was quite the ride tailing them throughout the season. 

This year, the story couldn’t be more different. 

Chicago is a strong team that needed a lot of luck to rack up 11 wins last season, and I simply don’t see that happening again. They are relying on Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III to continue to develop in the absence of DJ Moore, and still have a weak run game if they do ever lead a game. On defense, they shored up a few gaps but cannot rely on 33 takeaways again this season. A lot had to go right for the Bears to win as many games as they did, and a lot did go right, but expecting another dominant season is quite the stretch. I don’t think the Bears will win 10+ games, and I don’t even think they finish with a winning record. We will take Chicago to miss the playoffs at -130 odds, and will get even more aggressive with Under 8.5 wins at +125 odds. I always like to secure plus money when locking up a portion of my bankroll for months, which makes the added value on under 8.5 wins the top pick for this team. If the Bears stumble in the opening weeks, do not hesitate to double down on under 7.5 or 6.5 wins with tons of tough sledding down the stretch. 

Pick: Chicago Bears to Miss the Playoffs -130

Top Pick: Chicago Bears Under 8.5 Wins +125

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